12.23 Zhao Jinyan: Gold Evening Commentary | Will there be a pullback before Christmas? The bullish perspective remains unchanged

Today, gold has continued to strengthen in the Asian session, with fluctuations around the high of 4480 in the European session. From my personal judgment, this trend resembles a consolidation after a strong rally rather than a top signal. The idea of a pullback during the day is correct; however, the market is too strong, and there has hardly been an appropriate entry point. If there are no opportunities, I prefer to wait rather than force an entry.

On the news front, I am more concerned about the ongoing geopolitical tensions. The risks in Northeast Asia, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the Middle East have not cooled down. Moreover, the recent incident involving the interception of a Venezuelan oil tanker has kept risk aversion sentiment high. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by a cumulative 75 basis points this year, and the market still expects further rate cuts in 2026. The dollar index has retreated to around 98.16, which logically supports gold rather than being a pressure point.

At 21:30 tonight, the U.S. will announce the GDP and core PCE data for the third quarter. My view is that if the data is weak, there is still room for gold prices to rise; even if the data is strong, it may only trigger a short-term pullback, rather than a trend reversal.

From a technical structure perspective, the high-level consolidation following consecutive gains appears to be a normal digestion process. The attempt to break through 4500 in the early session was unsuccessful, but there was no significant volume drop. The MACD is still operating above the zero line and maintains a golden cross. Although the momentum bars have somewhat contracted, the upward structure has not been damaged; the RSI is at a high level but has not yet shown a top divergence. This state resembles a consolidation within a strong trend rather than a top signal. The shrinking trading volume is more inclined to be interpreted as profit-taking digestion rather than a sign of exiting positions.

In summary, my core judgment remains that the bullish pattern has not changed. It is important to note that as we approach the Christmas holiday, liquidity will decrease, and volatility may be amplified. Therefore, I prefer to participate on a pullback rather than chase highs. Before any sudden negative news or clear signals of a small-scale top appear, I will not consider taking a contrary short position. Patiently waiting for a pullback aligns better with the current rhythm.

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