The seemingly contradictory performance of the market—while the Federal Reserve injects liquidity, Bitcoin prices remain stagnant—reflects a change in the nature and direction of liquidity.

Recently, the Federal Reserve's purchase of short-term government bonds is widely regarded as a reserve management measure to maintain stability in the money market, rather than a quantitative easing to stimulate the economy. This liquidity is primarily used to ensure that the banking system's reserves are adequate to smoothly respond to seasonal funding demands, such as tax day, with the aim of not directly pushing up the prices of risk assets.

At the same time, funds within the cryptocurrency market are flowing from Bitcoin and Ethereum to other assets. Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a continuous net outflow of funds, while XRP and Solana ETFs have received stable inflows. This indicates that new funds may be directed towards other crypto assets or traditional financial areas that are viewed as “value vacuums.”

The current market is caught in a fluctuation under a balance of long and short forces. On one hand, the Federal Reserve's actions have eliminated liquidity risks in the financial system, providing a safety net for the market; on the other hand, institutional demand for Bitcoin in the short term has weakened, and prices face key technical resistance. This stalemate has made the market's reaction to macro data sluggish, driven more by internal fund flows and position changes.

Although the market trend is tortuous, often, market consolidation is brewing a new direction. When consensus leans too heavily in one direction, the market will always seek unexpected ways to break through. The current calm may be just the prelude to the next round of volatility. #比特币流动性