Although BTC is still hovering below 90,000 dollars now, appearing sluggish, some research institutions are directly stating: it will break 150,000 in 2026! The key is that this prediction is not just empty talk; they have listed three solid supporting signals. Let's see how reliable it is together~

The largest options expiration in history, BTC is about to be 'unbound'!

On December 26th, BTC will face the largest options expiration in history, with a nominal value of up to 24 billion dollars, most of which is on the Deribit platform. Recently, BTC's trend has been weak, largely due to this expiration 'holding it down' — after all, there are a large number of open contracts above 100,000 dollars, and market makers have been continuously selling spot to hedge, which has amplified volatility.

However, institutions have said that based on historical experience, after the expiration of such large options, market pressure will be released! It’s like a year-end cleanup; once the garbage is cleared, we can start fresh next year. By then, market makers won’t need to sell spot assets to hedge, and potential buying pressure will emerge, making it possible for BTC to rise back above 100,000 dollars.

Are institutions looking to buy the dip? The January effect is about to kick in!

Since the introduction of the spot BTC ETF, it has become much easier for institutions to enter the market. In 2025, ETF inflows reached a new high, indicating that BTC has already become a 'regular allocation' for institutions.

Here comes the key point! Every year at the beginning of the year, there’s a 'January effect'—retirement funds and large asset management institutions will readjust their investment portfolios. Institutions estimate that if these large funds increase their allocation to BTC to 1%-5%, the buying pressure will be significant! Just think about early 2025, when BTC attracted 900 million dollars in a single day. If it performs better than the US stock market next year, institutions will accelerate their entry, and by mid-2026, it might reach 120,000.

Geopolitical cooling sends assistance; will risky assets thrive?

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has kept the market anxious for the past few years, driving up oil prices and inflation, which is also unfriendly to risky assets like BTC. But recently, there are reports that both sides may negotiate, and breakthroughs are expected in early 2026.

If the situation really eases, inflation and oil price pressures will decrease, and monetary policy may become more accommodative. At that time, funds will dare to chase high-risk, high-reward assets, and BTC might rise an additional 20%-30%. This wave of assistance is crucial!

Of course, don’t be blindly optimistic!

Institutions also remind us that if geopolitical negotiations collapse or market liquidity tightens, forecasts might backfire. However, under baseline scenarios, predicting BTC to break 150,000 in 2026 is not too aggressive, and this wave of increase will be structural, not short-term speculation.

Overall, institutions feel that the conditions for BTC’s rise in 2026 are coming together quickly, and the target of 150,000 is not unfounded.