12.24 UKOIL Intraday
OPEC+ maintains the production cut agreement for the first quarter of 2026, with Russia increasing voluntary cuts to 500,000 barrels per day, raising expectations of a contraction in crude oil supply; the U.S. EIA reported an unexpected decrease in crude oil inventories by 2.3 million barrels, with refinery utilization rates rising to 92%, and winter heating demand boosting crude oil consumption.
The Red Sea shipping crisis continues, with crude oil transport routes being rerouted, increasing freight costs by 30% and extending transport times by 10 days; North Sea oil production platforms are experiencing short-term shutdowns for equipment maintenance, further disrupting supply and driving up oil prices.
NYMEX crude oil futures non-commercial net long positions increased by 12,000 contracts, the largest increase since December; institutions are betting on a recovery in crude oil demand in spring, with continuous capital inflows into the crude oil futures market. Multiple factors are at play, allowing for further long positions.
From a technical perspective, UKOIL is currently in a dual logic upward structure driven by supply and demand at the hourly level + geopolitical premium.
A long position can be initiated at 61.9, which is the upper bound of the densely traded area in the hourly chart for North Sea crude oil, also corresponding to the 1x volatility support level of the crude oil specific volatility index ATR, and the hourly MA40 moving average resonates here, making it an entry point for long positions.
Additional positions can be added at 61.6, which is the lower bound of the previous supply and demand gap on the hourly chart, also coinciding with the lower bound of the upward trend line, and the seasonal demand moving average MA60 for crude oil is here—under the peak demand season for winter heating oil, the support from the supply-demand gap for crude oil has fundamental rigidity, hence additional positions can be added here.
The defense level is at 61.4, which is a key neck line on the hourly chart and also the low point of North Sea crude oil transactions, coinciding with the lower band of the Bollinger Bands; if crude oil breaks below this level, it will trigger selling from spot traders hedging, and the geopolitical premium from the Red Sea shipping will quickly dissipate. Therefore, strict defense at this level is necessary.
(Long at 61.9, add at 61.6, defend at 61.4, target 63.0-63.4)
Personal opinion, not an investment recommendation.
