#加密市场观察 Master talks about hot topics:
Last night, as soon as the U.S. third-quarter GDP data came out, the numbers indeed looked good, far exceeding expectations. But if we expect the risk market to peak because of this, that would be pure nonsense. The market hardly reacted, and the reason is simple: the better the economy, the less reason the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates in 2026.
Now this group of funds is not really looking at whether the data is good or not, but rather calculating when Old Powell will loosen up. No matter how bright the GDP is, in their eyes, it is just a catalyst for delayed interest rate cuts, and the positive news is directly treated as negative.
And Chuanzi came out to say that we should trust the Federal Reserve Chairman to cut interest rates, which is just hot air. He has completely lost control of Old Powell and can only wait for the term to end.
The current reality is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t listen to the White House, the market doesn’t listen to data, it only listens to the interest rate path. As long as the interest rate cut timing isn’t moved forward, don’t expect risk assets to have any decent trend.
The ETF side has repeatedly emphasized a fact: the Christmas market has already started, but this start is not an increase; it’s people leaving. Some funds have already gone on vacation, and trading volume and liquidity are visibly sliding down.
When liquidity is poor, the market is left with only two states: the first is narrow grinding, and the second is specifically poking needles at you. Tonight is Christmas Eve, and tomorrow night the US stock market is closed. Trading volume will be even lower; in this environment, thinking about trend breakthroughs can only be said to have a bit of a problem with your thinking.
Yesterday, I mentioned in my analysis that every day someone is trying to fool you with Christmas market talk and year-end rallies, making it sound very convincing. What’s the reality? The current market is trash; the rises are not satisfying, and the drops are not straightforward, specifically designed to hit your stop loss.
You just chased a long, and it pokes you down. You just shorted, and it rebounded to irritate you. This kind of rebound essentially has only one word: fake. It’s not that the funds are bullish; it’s short covering plus main player control performance.
Back to the market, last night, a buy order of over 80 million dollars for Bitcoin pushed the price up to 90.5K. It looks impressive, but what’s the result? Today it was pushed back down again. Tonight, another buy order of over 40 million will at most recover half of the drop from last night to today.
Simply calculated, a pullback of 3600, a rebound of 1800, and the resistance is still clearly there at 88.8K; don’t really think this small buy order can change the trend. During a non-bull market environment at Christmas, more often than not, it’s a Christmas disaster.
Especially after Japan’s interest rate hike, that kind of significant drop and sharp needle hasn’t fully happened yet. With such poor liquidity, what the main players love to do is poke a needle downwards, sending all those who think they are clever bulls away in one go.
The structure of Bitcoin is now very clear; 88.8K to 90.8K is a complete pressure zone. Every time it comes up, it gets smashed down, with not even a shadow of stability. In such positions, don’t short at highs; waiting for a breakout confirmation is basically waiting to get cut.
However, if there’s a rebound during the day, be more cautious at night; during low liquidity periods, unexpected events are most likely to occur. A small dip looks at 85K, while a big dip goes directly to 80.6K to 78.8K. Don’t think it’s exaggerated; if the market really goes crazy, it can teach everyone a lesson in a minute.
Ethereum is not doing much better; it can’t break through MA30 on the daily chart. After a high, it falls back, showing two small bearish candles, with momentum very weak. There’s support at 2800 below, so a waterfall drop is unlikely in the short term. But expecting it to shoot up to the sky is just a dream.
As of now, 2900 is the critical life-and-death line; if it breaks, look to 2850. If it can’t hold, continue to look down. Fluctuation is just fluctuation; without a trend, it’s all nonsense!
Bandit looks at the trend:
Currently, Bitcoin at 87K to 88K belongs to a very awkward cost zone, making it difficult to operate on either side. The truly cost-effective zone starts from below 86K. The range of 84.5K to 86K is relatively safer and has more advantages for entry, belonging to an important support cluster.
Even if a rebound occurs, there will constantly be pressure from above to push it back down; the market characteristic is to pull a bit and then smash it down, so take profit when necessary; don’t be greedy. 88K to 89K is a very strong pressure zone; currently, the moving average has already formed a bearish arrangement, and the overall trend is still downward.
Before a genuine trend reversal occurs, the overall thinking continues to be mainly bearish. RSI is around 42, with room to continue downward; before entering a clearly oversold condition, being patient and observing is actually more advantageous.
The first support at 86K is the upper edge of the current dense trading zone, constituting an important support level. The second support at 84.5K is the position held during the previous rapid decline; once broken, the price is likely to further drop to 82K.
Only with an effective breakthrough of the first resistance at 88K can it be considered a decent rebound, and it’s very likely to test the upper moving averages and long-term downward trend lines.
If it can break through the second resistance at 89K with volume, then there’s a possibility to discuss trend reversal. Otherwise, as long as there’s no accompanying volume, upward pulls will mostly be smashed down.
12.24 Bandit Wave Pre-Positioning:
Long entry reference: not currently referenced
Short entry reference: 88300-89000 range short, target: 87100-86000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few observations. This market is filled with performers; today’s long positions are screenshots, tomorrow’s short positions are summaries, making it seem like they 'always catch the top and bottom,' but in reality, it’s all just hindsight. A truly noteworthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, self-coherent, and withstands scrutiny, not just jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
