As I look over the entire crypto ocean, two decisive forces shaping the future are colliding fiercely: on one side is the clear course of regulatory giants, and on the other side are the dangerous maneuvers of whales within the market. And navigating between these two, there is a group of perilous 'hedge devils'.
The whale's 'deep-sea fishing': Undercurrents beneath the iceberg
In the past week, a silent asset transfer occurred on the chain. A giant whale that had been dormant for 14 years suddenly awakened, moving 80,000 bitcoins (worth approximately $9 billion). Historically, such a large sell-off is enough to cause a market crash of 30%, but this time, the price of bitcoin only briefly dropped by 3%-4%, quickly rebounding within hours.
The operator of this 'deep-sea fishing' is not the giants like Binance or Coinbase, but a Wall Street institution named Galaxy Digital. They break down large orders into hundreds of small trades, using dark pools to match hidden order book pressure, while also linking with the Bitcoin derivatives market to hedge risks.
This reminds me of the crazy bets made by those contract whales at the beginning of the year. Some whales used 5x, 10x, or even 25x leverage to establish long contract positions, as if walking a tightrope in the air, where a single misstep could lead to disaster. Liangxi made $1 million from an initial capital of $2,000 in a short period, while another whale with 50x leverage realized a profit of $6.83 million within 24 hours.
But I have to be honest: behind these so-called 'legends' lies an information advantage and financial strength that the vast majority of ordinary players cannot replicate. We small investors only see successful cases, while the silent majority who have been liquidated, their stories will never be known.
The 'beacon' of regulation: the Federal Reserve's strategic turnaround
Just as the whales are quietly taking action, a profound regulatory transformation is taking place silently.
In April 2025, the Federal Reserve revoked the pre-approval system for banks' cryptocurrency operations, officially ending the 'New Activity Supervision Program.' This means that banks no longer need to obtain regulatory approval in advance when engaging in cryptocurrency asset custody, collateralized lending, and other businesses.
What's even more significant is that Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller proposed the 'Streamlined Master Account' plan at the 'Payment Innovations Conference' in October, allowing qualified cryptocurrency institutions to directly access the Federal Reserve payment system. At the same time, the construction of cryptocurrency exchanges led by the Federal Reserve is also accelerating.
In my view, this marks a fundamental shift: regulatory agencies are moving from past containment strategies to guidance and integration. They realize that instead of letting cryptocurrency businesses grow wildly outside the system, it is better to bring them into the regulatory framework, making them a controllable extension of traditional finance.
The dangerous 'Hedge Devils': When whales encounter new rules
In this transformation, a new group of players is rising, which I call the 'Hedge Devils.'
These devils are neither traditional whales nor simple arbitrageurs. They navigate the gray areas of regulation, taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the Federal Reserve's policy loosening to engage in complex compliance arbitrage.
Galaxy Digital is a typical example. Their board of directors hides the real power codes: former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, current special advisor on digital assets to the Treasury Secretary, and Texas energy lobbyists. Founder Novogratz himself is a 'Wall Street creation': having been a partner at Goldman Sachs for 11 years, his experience as a New York Fed advisor makes him proficient in the gray games of regulatory language and sovereign debt negotiations.
To be honest, the real moat of these 'Hedge Devils' is not technology, but their control over regulatory pathways. While decentralized natives are still advocating 'code is law,' the true winners are those who deeply understand regulatory arbitrage.
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