Brothers! Seeing the news 'Holiday liquidity drags Perp DEX trading volume, Lighter leads again', I immediately wanted to share my core judgment with you! Don't be fooled by the surface phenomenon of 'trading volume decline', and don't blindly chase the hype of Lighter— the combination of holidays and Perp DEX has always been a disaster zone for retail investors, and this time Lighter's leadership precisely highlights the key points for future market trends!
Let me first share two recent bloody cases, and then I'll explain how to avoid pitfalls! Just last week, the Nasdaq 100 associated perpetual contract on the EdgeX platform collapsed by 3.5% due to liquidity exhaustion during the weekend (a typical low liquidity period during holidays), as a new wallet used a $10 million TWAP short to directly crash it, with $13 million of long positions being liquidated in an instant, resulting in a retail investor losing $7.4 million in a single transaction! Last March, Hyperliquid's HLP pool also suffered from relaxed holiday risk control, allowing whales to take advantage, ultimately triggering systemic losses! This is not a coincidence, but an inevitable risk of holiday Perp DEX!
So, the two pitfalls that should be avoided right now, I'll outline them here, remember them! First, absolutely do not trade low liquidity contracts during the holidays! Especially coins like EdgeX that are linked to traditional markets; when the traditional market is closed, you are not trading the underlying asset itself, but rather a casino where 'whoever has more money can manipulate the price.' The order book is as thin as paper, and a single large order can sweep you out! Second, do not blindly trust the safety of 'leading platforms'! Lighter is leading this time, the key is that after financing, the TVL and active addresses have held up (1.46 billion TVL, 138,000 active addresses), but that does not mean it is without risk—all Perp DEX's lifeline is risk control. Last year, Hyperliquid was a cautionary tale; even top platforms can expose structural weaknesses due to extreme market conditions! My advice is: during the holiday, either reduce positions and observe, or only trade mainstream coin contracts like BTC and ETH, with leverage not exceeding 2 times!
Let me reiterate my core point with a firmer tone: This news release signals a 'short-term volatility, mid-term structural opportunities'! The decline in trading volume is purely due to holiday liquidity, not a lack of market enthusiasm—look at the data, the open contracts of Aster and Hyperliquid are still at high levels, and Lighter's trading volume is leading against the trend, indicating that funds haven't exited; they are just clustered in top platforms for risk aversion! I can confidently say that after the holiday, as liquidity returns, Perp DEX trading volume will rebound quickly, but it will definitely not be a broad-based increase! Funds will continue to concentrate on top platforms like Lighter that have financing endorsements and mature risk control models, while smaller platforms will find it increasingly difficult—this aligns perfectly with my prediction three months ago that the Perp DEX sector would accelerate its clearing process. Fans who heeded my advice to avoid small platforms are now secretly pleased!
Lastly, a reminder: the core of making money in the crypto world has never been about chasing trends, but about avoiding pitfalls! This holiday liquidity crisis is just a small warning from the market to retail investors. Follow me @链上标哥 so you don’t get lost!
