According to the latest arrangements, the closure of major traditional markets is as follows:
U.S. stocks
· December 24 (Tuesday): Closing 3 hours early. Closing time is 2:00 AM Beijing time on December 25.
· December 25 (Wednesday): Christmas, all-day market closure.
Hong Kong stocks
· December 24 (Tuesday): Half-day market, closing early at noon.
· December 25 (Wednesday) to 26 (Thursday): Public holiday, two consecutive days of market closure, northbound trading of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect will also be closed.
Stock markets and commodity futures in multiple European countries
· December 24: Exchanges in Germany, Italy, and others will be closed; exchanges in the UK, France, Spain, and others will close early.
· December 25: Most major markets are closed all day.
🎯 Holiday window period, logic reasoning in the crypto space
The traditional market is at a standstill, highlighting the 24/7 nature of the crypto market, but this 'double-edged sword' needs to be viewed calmly:
1. The imaginative space of liquidity migration: some short-term funds seeking opportunities may turn their attention to cryptocurrencies that do not halt trading, theoretically amplifying short-term volatility.
2. Real risk suppression factors:
· Year-end liquidity tightens: institutions are engaging in 'tax loss harvesting', selling underperforming assets to offset taxes, causing funds to flow out of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
· Market sentiment leans towards risk aversion: current funds are flowing from high-risk assets to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Bitcoin is underperforming in 2025 and has been reclassified by the market as a high-risk asset.
· At a critical juncture: Bitcoin's price is being suppressed by a large number of options contracts within a narrow range of $85,000 to $90,000. Approximately $27 billion in options will expire on December 26, which could likely become a direct trigger for breaking the current balance and causing significant volatility.
💡 Qi He’s practical thinking
Faced with complex intertwined factors, simplifying it to 'bullish' or 'bearish' is dangerous. The core of my strategy is: to use volatility, not to bet on direction.
· For holders: beware of 'fake moves'. Any sudden spike or drop during the holiday could be magnified due to thin liquidity and may not represent a trend. If positions are too heavy, consider gradually adjusting in response to volatility, with the primary goal of avoiding uncertainty before and after the options expiration on the 26th.
· For onlookers: patience is paramount. The market is not lacking in opportunities, but in capital. The current environment is not suitable for heavy positions. If itching to trade, one can only use a very small position to test the key support level (such as near $85,000), and strict stop-loss must be set.
· Key observation point: closely monitor Bitcoin's breakthrough at the $90,000 resistance level, as well as the market's direction after the options expiration on the 26th. This is more important than any minor fluctuations during the holiday.
In summary, the Christmas holiday is less about 'red envelope markets' and more about an observation window of liquidity changes and overlapping risk events. The real directional choice will likely become clear only after the holiday.#圣诞节