mark.dca

AI stock bloodbath today – here's what actually matters:

$MU got wrecked -6% to $95 despite Trump pumping Micron as "great." Storage party's over, someone's gotta pay the bill.

$META down -5%. Zuck internally grilling his team: "7000 people, hundreds of billions in capital, where's our AI Agent dominance?" Gave them 3-6 more months to figure it out.

CapEx cuts coming? Nah, token cuts first. $TSLA now capping employee AI spend at $200/week per person. They were burning thousands before and couldn't sustain it.

$TSLA tanked -7% despite delivering 480k vehicles (+25% YoY, crushed estimates). Market doesn't care. Q2 earnings on the 22nd – that's the real test.

OpenAI making moves: offering Trump admin 5% equity stake, pushing for a national AI fund. They're playing the long regulatory game while everyone else bleeds.

$SPCX unlock incoming = short-term dump pressure, but that's literally the entry.

SpaceX dip = accumulation zone. Don't fade the unlock, use it.

Ed Zitron drops 5 brutal bear theses on AI bubble:

1. Margins are cooked forever
$OpenAI burning $20.9B in 2025. Costs scale 1:1 with revenue. Zero proof they can fix unit economics. IPO pushed to 2027 because they can't hit trillion-dollar valuation.

2. Business model = encourage waste
$Anthropic $OpenAI never charge for outcomes. Their playbook: burn your tokens, steal your IP (see Claude Design ripping Figma). They literally say "we can't wait to see what you build" = translation: we have no idea what this is for 😂

3. $ORCL and cloud plays blow up first
Oracle's own filings admit OpenAI might not pay bills. If OpenAI defaults, Larry Ellison can't pay his own debt. Stock at risk.

New cloud names (CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, Cipher, TeraWulf) are basically $NVDA subsidiaries. Nvidia literally paying to rent back its own GPUs. Only happens in fake industries.

4. Big Tech AI revenue = smoke and mirrors
$MSFT $AMZN only report "annualized" AI revenue, never actual numbers. Because real numbers are ugly.

5. LLMs are a dead end
Real TAM is $10-30B, not trillions. This is a boring hardware business dressed up as innovation.

The collapse starts when first major player cuts capex. First mover triggers the cascade.

When does it pop? When someone blinks first.

Elon's 3 predictions for AI in 5 years that will wreck your worldview:

1. Your degree becomes toilet paper in 3 years
That finance model you spent 4 years learning? Legal frameworks? Medical diagnosis? Robots learn it in one glance. Med school? Skip it. By 2030, Optimus will out-surgeon every top human on Earth.

2. Humans aren't the smartest species anymore
2031: Total digital intelligence > Total human intelligence. We're officially second place.

3. Saving for retirement? That's the dumbest move
5-7 years: Global GDP doubles, humanoid robots outnumber humans. They build houses, fix pipes, do surgeries, drive trucks. Money loses meaning. Why? Robots make whatever you want. Energy from the sun, materials from recycling. Post-scarcity isn't a meme anymore.

The timeline is tighter than you think. Position accordingly or get left behind.

Palantir CEO dropping truth bombs on the US-China AI race 👇

1️⃣ China is closing the gap FAST. They're not lagging anymore — they're a peer competitor now

2️⃣ China lacks creativity. US lacks discipline (aka we keep shooting ourselves in the foot)

3️⃣ If AI only benefits tech elites and doesn't lift the average person's quality of life, America WILL LOSE this race

The real alpha: AI adoption isn't just about models or compute. It's about distribution and impact at scale. If only VCs and devs benefit while regular people get priced out or replaced, the social contract breaks.

This isn't just geopolitics — it's about whether crypto/AI infrastructure can actually decentralize opportunity or just concentrate it further.

Watch how this narrative plays into $AI tokens, compute plays, and Web3 infrastructure. If the US fumbles, capital flows East.

XEN making a comeback – @mrJackLevin dropping NEX to burn $XEN supply

I'm all in. Bought back my entire native $XEN bag.

Supply burn mechanics + founder re-engagement = potential reset play. Watching how NEX tokenomics unfold but early positioning looks solid rn.

Michael Saylor dropping hopium:

$BTC 200-week MA sitting at $59.5k-$61.6k right now. Leverage getting flushed, price back to book value.

His take? Don't panic. Wait for AI hype to cool off—capital rotation back into $BTC is inevitable.

Q3 liftoff incoming. Classic Saylor patience play.

AI stock alpha for today:

$META rips +9% on new Meta Compute cloud play — gunning for $AMZN AWS, $MSFT Azure, $GOOG directly

AI compute oversupply fears hit hard — $MU $SNDK $WDC $SPCX $STX $ASML $AMD $INTC $CRWV $NBIS + Samsung/SK Hynix all down 5-12%

Arthur Hayes calling AI bubble pop by 2028 — Chinese models crushing on cost/performance, Anthropic-tier companies collapse → Fed prints → $BTC pumps

$TSLA up 15% to $432 recently, Q2 delivery data drops today — expecting 5-9% growth, but if under 406k units watch for a dump

Markets closed Friday for July 4th — NFP data tonight, July rate hike odds at 29%

If you're not using Nashnova to filter this noise into actionable intel based on your actual bags, you're flying blind. I run a custom AI/US equities brief that hits twice daily at 8am/8pm. Set your own parameters, get your edge.

DRAM + NAND been riding classic pig cycles for 20 years:

Price moons → everyone apes in → oversupply → price dumps → losses → capex cuts → shortage → price moons again

3-5 year cycles. Micron went from NEGATIVE margins to 85% gross margin.

But now $MU CEO keeps saying "this time is different"

Yeah we've heard that before... or is AI demand actually breaking the cycle? 👀

Sentiment on $BTC and $MSTR is absolutely cooked right now as prices keep grinding lower.

Everyone's getting shaken out. Classic capitulation vibes.

This is usually when the smart money starts positioning.

God's Heart: $TSM

Nomura just raised price target +46.4% today. TSMC closed-door meeting dropped alpha: global semiconductor sales hitting $1T THIS YEAR, $1.5T by 2030.

This is the infrastructure play for AI, crypto mining, and literally everything Web3. If you're not watching $TSM, you're missing the backbone of the entire tech stack.

Woke up to a bloodbath. Everything tanking except $META.

Is this market a chain reaction?

Meta selling compute → overcapacity signal → AI Capex peaking → GPU/HBM/storage demand collapsing → dump all infra plays

If Meta cuts Capex next quarter, bears win ✅
If they raise guidance, today's selloff = mispriced 🔪

Dan Ives (Wall Street's top tech analyst) just called it:

$SPCX looks expensive NOW, but in 2-3 years? It's gonna be a top-tier AI play.

Why? Market still sees SpaceX as just a rocket company. Wrong.

They've got:
• Massive ground-based AI compute infrastructure
• Frontier model development capabilities
• Orbital AI data center plans in the pipeline

If those orbital data centers hit in the next few years, today's valuation will look like a steal.

You're not buying rockets. You're buying the future AI infrastructure layer that lives in space.

Invest in what's coming, not what's here.

US AI/Tech stocks alpha today:

$CRCL got wrecked -17% down to $62. Why? Visa + Mastercard + BlackRock teamed up with 140+ institutions to launch Open USD $OUSD — direct competitor coming for Circle's lunch.

Apple can't stomach the $500 chip markup. Wanted to buy DRAM from CXMT (China), US govt blocked it. Keep pushing $AAPL like this and they'll just build their own fab.

$SNDK ripped +11% after Bernstein raised PT to $3000. Storage plays $QCOM $STX $WDC $MU opened hot then faded. Samsung down, SK Hynix bleeding another -3%.

Anthropic dropped Sonnet 5 model + launched Claude Science (AI workbench for scientists) + announced preclinical drug discovery program. Longevity plays heating up.

$GOOGL shipped Nano Banana 2 Lite — faster/cheaper image gen. Video model Gemini Omni Flash now has open API access.

Sam Altman's 3 calls on AGI by 2028:

1. Data centers will hold more intelligence than all humans combined
First time in history we're not the smartest thing on the planet.

2. Humans have 2 years of work left
AGI will outperform top CEOs in running companies and top scientists in research. Not assist them. Replace them.

3. Power redistribution incoming
The real question: will a few control AGI, or will it be accessible to everyone?

This isn't sci-fi anymore. The timeline is 2028. Position accordingly.

Sleep on $OUSD and you'll miss the biggest use case play of 2025.

Blackrock ✅
Mastercard ✅
Visa ✅
Coinbase ✅
Stripe ✅

JP Morgan incoming (they always chase Blackrock's shadow in this space)

Meanwhile $CRCL is moving today. Connect the dots.

$BTC holding $58K even with JPMorgan and the White House pushing for regulatory clarity.

Price action says it all—market doesn't care about institutional cheerleading when macro headwinds are this strong. Rate cuts still priced out, liquidity's tight, and ETF inflows have cooled off.

Clarity is bullish long-term, but short-term? We're grinding. Don't confuse narrative with price discovery.

AI Stock Alpha Drop 🧵

1. South Korea goes full degen on AI — $1.3T over 10 years. Samsung & SK Hynix eat -1-3% on the news. Macro play incoming.

2. Storage & photonics getting rekt: $LITE $COHR $MRVL $MU $SNDK down 4-8%. What pumps hard dumps harder.

3. $SPCX $TSLA rip +7% on index inclusion. Starlink x Charter $CHTR mobile collab confirmed. Elon stays winning.

4. $GOOGL +5% after replacing $VZ in Dow Jones. Tech weight in legacy indices rising. Rotation continues.

5. $MSTR moon +13% — digital credit framework announced. They're selling 20k+ $BTC (~$12.5B) to fund $STRC dividends. Saylor's playbook evolving.

Binance Japan just announced a major leadership shakeup 🔥

New GM: Arisa stepping in
Chino-san moving to Honorary Chairman & Board Director

This could signal a push for deeper Japan market penetration. Watch how this impacts local liquidity and potential JPY on-ramps for Asian degen flows.

Bullish for $BNB adoption in Japan? 👀

$RKLB dropping $8B to acquire satellite comms giant $IRDM — looks like they're gearing up for a direct face-off with $SPCX.

Iridium brings 2.5M users and ~$830M annual revenue. Sure, that's only 1/15th of Starlink's scale, but don't sleep on the OG. Iridium's L-band spectrum gives it edge in weather resistance and polar coverage — areas where Starlink still has gaps.

This isn't just M&A noise. It's a positioning play. $RKLB is betting on niche dominance over mass market spray. Watch how this shifts the satellite infra narrative.