7toraka

👀👀👉US Economic Indicators for November 2025 Released Today

The latest US employment and retail sales data, corresponding to November 2025 and released today, show mixed labor market signals amid steady consumer spending trends.
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Labor Market Key Metrics

👉Non-Farm Employment Change increased by 64,000 jobs, below recent averages.
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👉Unemployment Rate rose to 4.6%.
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👉Average Hourly Earnings m/m grew by 0.3%, with year-over-year at 3.5%.

#USNonFarmPayrollReport

👀👀👉Federal Reserve's $5.2 Billion Overnight Repo Operation: Liquidity Support

The Federal Reserve conducted overnight repurchase agreements totaling $5.201 billion on December 15, 2025.

It alleviates short-term funding strains for banks and dealers,
maintaining the federal funds rate within the 3.5-3.75% target range. Full-allotment standing repos, effective since December 11, mitigate rate volatility akin to 2019 disruptions, supporting Treasury and money market equilibrium.

These actions enhance liquidity flow to risk assets, potentially elevating equities and cryptocurrencies through re-hypothecation, as observed with prior $13.5 billion injections. Yet, as a minor daily volume in the $12.6 trillion repo market, it sustains accommodative policy absent significant price swings.

Amid the FOMC's rate cut and quantitative tightening cessation, it
reinforces easing measures, with stable rate projections aiding 2026 expansion while tracking inflation. Short-term Treasury yields remain subdued, bolstering equity performance.

#Fed

👀👀👉Polymarket: Warsh Surges Past Hassett in Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh has gained significant momentum in the race to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, recently overtaking Kevin Hassett in prediction markets. This shift reflects evolving sentiment among traders and advisors close to President Donald Trump.
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Warsh now leads on platforms like Polymarket (46%) and Kalshi (47-52%), while Hassett trails at 41-44%. These figures mark a reversal from early December, when Hassett held odds above 80%.
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Trump's recent comments to the Wall Street Journal placed Warsh at the top of his shortlist, following a strong White House interview. Resistance to Hassett stems from concerns over his close ties to Trump potentially undermining Fed independence.

Who's your favorite?

#Fed

🚨🚨Key Events to Watch This Week🚨🚨

👉Tuesday – U.S. Jobs Data

👉Thursday – U.S. CPI Inflation Data

👉Initial Jobless Claims

👉Friday – Existing Home Sales

👉 Consumer Sentiment

#news

👀👀👉Crypto Trust Banks: A New Wave of Competition for Traditional Finance

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has granted conditional national trust bank charters to five digital-asset firms: Ripple, Fidelity Digital Assets, Paxos, BitGo, and First National Digital Currency Bank. These charters enable the firms to provide crypto-focused services, such as custody and settlement, under a federal framework without the requirements of traditional insured depository banks.

The American Bankers Association (ABA) argues that these charters blur the definition of a "bank," undermine charter integrity, and allow regulatory arbitrage, as crypto firms gain national preemption without matching capital, liquidity, or supervisory standards. The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) contends that the OCC exceeds the traditional scope of national trust charters, which focused on fiduciary roles, creating a two-tier system that burdens community banks with stricter regulations.

These complaints stem from valid questions about statutory authority and historical precedents, including exemptions from FDIC insurance, Community Reinvestment Act obligations, and certain capital rules. Yet they also reflect competitive pressures, as crypto firms like Ripple and Paxos can now operate as "national trust banks," bypassing state regulations while traditional banks face higher compliance costs.

This development integrates crypto into the federal banking system through hybrid entities, potentially normalizing digital-asset custody. Traditional banks may need to adapt, though outcomes depend on final charter conditions and access to Federal Reserve services.

#USCryptoRegulation

👀👀👉US Crypto Bill Talks Stall Despite December Hopes

US crypto Market Structure Bill negotiations are dragging on. Industry groups, the White House, Republicans, and Democrats keep talking, even with draft language out there. High hopes for December action have faded—no markup before the holiday break, so it's delayed to January 2026.
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The House pushed the Senate hard to pass the CLARITY Act by month's end, after its own approval back in July. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott aimed for markups this December, and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong lobbied fiercely for regulatory clarity on CFTC roles and DeFi.
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Key disputes include ethics rules tied to Trump connections, stablecoin yields, SEC powers over tokens, and DeFi safeguards. GOP compromise offers to Democrats on December 9 built some optimism, but the tight calendar forced a postponement. Bipartisan drive remains solid for early next year.

#USGovernment
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👀👀👉OCC Approves Trust Charters for Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity, Paxos

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the top U.S. federal banking regulator, has granted conditional approval for national trust bank charters to Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos today, marking a major step toward mainstream banking integration for major crypto firms.

What the OCC approved:

The OCC conditionally approved:

👉Two new (de novo) national trust bank charters:

👉Ripple National Trust Bank (for Ripple).
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👉First National Digital Currency Bank (for Circle, to oversee the USDC reserve and provide fiduciary digital asset custody).
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Conversions of existing state trust companies into national trust banks:

👉BitGo Bank & Trust (BitGo’s South Dakota trust company).
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👉Fidelity Digital Assets (Fidelity’s digital assets trust business).
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👉Paxos Trust Company (Paxos’s existing state trust charter).

#USCrypto $XRP

👀👀👉Federal Reserve Extends Terms for 11 Regional Presidents

The Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors voted unanimously to reappoint the existing regional Reserve Bank presidents to new five‑year terms that begin on March 1, 2026. By law, these presidents serve five‑year terms that all expire at the end of February in years ending in 1 or 6, so the board periodically votes to extend or replace them.
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Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic had already announced that he will retire at the end of his current term in February, so he is not being reappointed to a new term. Because of that planned retirement, the reappointment action effectively covers 11 sitting Reserve Bank presidents rather than all 12, with a search under way for Bostic’s successor in Atlanta.

#Fed

👀👀👉Oracle Down 7%, Software Slump Overshadows Cloud Wins

Oracle is dropping after hours because its latest earnings report disappointed investors on revenue and raised concerns about the sustainability and quality of its growth.

Oracle reported its latest fiscal quarter after the close, posting adjusted earnings per share that were above Wall Street estimates but revenue that came in below consensus expectations. The stock is trading down around 6–7% in the after‑hours session as investors react more to the revenue shortfall than to the earnings beat.
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Analysts had expected higher top‑line growth from Oracle’s cloud and software businesses, but total revenue of about 16.06 billion dollars missed the roughly 16.19 billion dollars the street was looking for. The miss is being interpreted as a sign that demand for some of Oracle’s software and cloud offerings may be softer than hoped, especially given elevated expectations around AI‑driven growth.
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Oracle did highlight very strong remaining performance obligations (its backlog of contracted but not yet recognized revenue), which it said surged by more than 400%, helped by large cloud deals with customers such as Meta and Nvidia. However, traders are currently prioritizing the near‑term revenue miss and questions about how quickly that backlog will convert into reported sales, which is contributing to the sharp after‑hours sell‑off despite the strong long‑term contract pipeline.

​#earnings

🚨🚨Fed’s 0.25% Cut Reflects Tightrope Between Hawks and Doves 🚨🚨

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75%. This move, widely anticipated as a "hawkish cut," exposed notable divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

This split underscores an ongoing debate between the Fed’s "hawks," focused on taming inflation, and "doves," who prioritize supporting economic growth and the labor market.

This latest cut marks the third in a row, but signals from the Fed suggest limited scope for more reductions soon. The "dot plot," illustrating officials’ rate projections, anticipates just one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027, eventually settling near 3%. Meanwhile, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3%, even as inflation, currently at 2.8%, is expected to stay above the 2% target until 2028.

In a strategic shift, the Fed will resume purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly starting this Friday to ease pressures in overnight funding markets, marking a key tactical move after pausing its balance sheet runoff.

#Fed

👀👀👉US Employment Cost Index: Stable 3.5% Growth Amid Cooling Labor Market

The September 2025 Employment Cost Index (ECI) data indicates stable wage and compensation growth in the US economy, signaling a cooling labor market without sharp inflationary pressures from labor costs.

Over the 12-month period, civilian worker compensation rose 3.5%, matching wages, salaries, and benefits, while private industry saw slightly higher wage growth at 3.6% and inflation-adjusted real wages up 0.6%, suggesting workers are gaining modest purchasing power amid moderating inflation. State and local government costs increased 3.6%, with benefits up 3.8%, reflecting steady public sector pressures. The 0.8% quarterly rise (seasonally adjusted) points to sustained but not accelerating cost trends.

These figures align with a resilient yet moderating US economy, where productivity gains (from AI and other efficiencies) offset slower employment growth, preventing overheating. Lower survey response rates due to the federal shutdown introduce some data uncertainty, but the balanced growth—neither surging nor stalling—supports forecasts of around 2% real GDP expansion into 2026 without imminent recession risks. This stability aids the Federal Reserve in balancing rate cuts against lingering inflation around 2.75-3%.

#USJobsData

👀👀👉Silver spot prices have surpassed $61 per ounce for the first time in history.

Silver futures reached $61.16 per ounce, with an intraday high of $61.295 and reports of spot prices hitting around $60.74 to $61 per troy ounce during late U.S. trading. This marks a daily gain of over 4.7%, or about $2.755 from the previous close of $58.405. The year's low was $28.31, confirming a more than doubling in value throughout 2025.

#Silver

👀👀👉JOLTS Job Openings 7.7 Million: What's the State of the US Economy?

The October 2025 JOLTS report indicates a stable but cooling US labor market, with job openings steady at 7.7 million (4.6% rate), hires at 5.1 million (3.2% rate), and total separations at 5.1 million (3.2% rate). This balance—where openings exceed hires but show little movement—suggests employers retain demand for workers amid moderating hiring activity, consistent with a broader economic slowdown rather than contraction.
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Quits remaining low at 2.9 million (1.8% rate, down 276,000 year-over-year) signal reduced worker confidence in finding better opportunities, a classic sign of labor market softening that often precedes slower wage growth and consumer spending. Layoffs and discharges holding at 1.9 million (1.2% rate) point to limited distress, though upticks in sectors like accommodation and food services hint at pockets of pressure from demand weakness. Sector declines in federal government and health care further reflect fiscal tightening and post-pandemic normalization.
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Overall, these figures align with resilience in a high-interest-rate
environment: no sharp deterioration, but stagnation implies the economy faces headwinds from tariffs, policy uncertainty, and prior tightening, potentially tipping toward recession risks in 2026 as forecasts suggest GDP growth slowing to 1.4%. Compared to August's 7.2 million openings, the uptick to 7.7 million shows mild recovery, yet year-ago levels were higher (around 7.6-7.7 million), confirming a downtrend from peak tightness.

#USJobsData

👀👀👉 ADP National Employment Report, U.S. Private Payrolls Bounce Back

For the four weeks ending Nov 22, 2025, private employers added a modest average of 4,750 jobs per week—a welcome rebound from prior declines. This preliminary estimate from ADP Research and Stanford Digital Economy Lab uses high-frequency payroll data, offering a sneak peek ahead of official reports.
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Key Highlights

👉Tracks week-over-week changes via a 4-week moving average, revised as more data flows in.
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👉Follows November's surprise -32K net loss, hit hard by small business cuts after October's +47K gain.
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#USJobsData

👀👀👉CFTC Launches Digital Assets Pilot for Derivatives Collateral

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), led by Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham, has launched a pilot program allowing certain digital assets—such as bitcoin ($BTC ), ether ($ETH ), and USDC—to serve as customer margin collateral in derivatives markets. This means traders can now use these tokenized assets to back their positions in futures and swaps, instead of relying solely on traditional cash or securities. Announced on December 8, 2025, the program provides clear rules while requiring strict safeguards like weekly reporting to the CFTC.
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Key Features

👉Limited Start: For the first three months, only BTC, ETH, and USDC qualify, with futures commission merchants (FCMs) tracking holdings by account type.

👉Risk Controls: Includes rules for secure storage, fair valuation (with discounts for volatility), and quick alerts on issues.

👉Broader Guidance: Covers tokenized real-world assets like U.S. Treasuries, confirming CFTC rules work with new technology.
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#CFTC

👀👀👉Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo CEOs to Discuss Crypto Rules with U.S. Senators

Recent reports confirm that CEOs of Citigroup (Jane Fraser), Bank of America (Brian Moynihan), and Wells Fargo (Charlie Scharf) are scheduled to meet with U.S. senators this week to discuss crypto market structure legislation. The meeting is set for Thursday, aligning with ongoing Senate efforts on bills like the CLARITY Act to clarify regulations for digital assets between the SEC and CFTC.
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Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees plan to vote on the legislation in December 2025, potentially advancing it to the Senate floor early next year. Chairman Tim Scott has emphasized positioning the U.S. as a global crypto leader through these rules on digital commodities and securities. This follows separate, earlier discussions on unrelated issues like debanking.
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#USCrypto

👀🤔👉Now Paramount Wants to Buy Warner in Hostile Bid

Paramount’s hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery has thrown one of the biggest media deals in history into chaos, pitting legacy studios and streaming giants against each other under the close watch of President Donald Trump and regulators. Netflix still has a path to own Warner, but that path now runs through antitrust scrutiny, political pressure from Hollywood, and a richer all‑cash offer from Paramount that Warner’s shareholders cannot ignore.
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Paramount has launched an unsolicited, all‑cash hostile offer of roughly 30 dollars per Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) share, valuing the company at around 108 billion dollars including debt. Instead of just buying the studios and streaming assets like Netflix, Paramount is trying to acquire the entire WBD group, going directly to shareholders and accusing Warner’s board of running an unfair sale process tilted toward Netflix.
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Paramount’s pitch is that its offer is simpler: full control of Warner, paid entirely in cash, with no need to spin off businesses or merge giant streaming platforms. It is openly framing its bid as more likely to pass antitrust review than a deal that would combine Netflix’s dominant service with HBO Max and Warner’s vast library.
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For Netflix to end up owning Warner’s studios and streaming division under the existing agreement, several steps need to happen.
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👉Warner’s board must continue to back the Netflix deal and resist Paramount’s hostile offer, reaffirming that Netflix’s 72‑billion‑dollar package is in shareholders’ best interests.
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👉U.S. and foreign antitrust regulators must review and approve the Netflix–Warner deal, deciding that combining Netflix with HBO Max and Warner’s IP does not create an impermissible streaming or content monopoly. The transaction must clear any national‑security or foreign‑investment reviews.

At every stage, a higher, all‑cash bid from Paramount gives Warner’s board and shareholders reasons to reconsider the Netflix agreement.

#news

🚨🚨Key Events to Watch This Week🚨🚨

Tuesday:
👉ADP Weekly Jobless Claims
👉JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday:
👉U.S. Employment Cost Index
👉Fed Policy Decision
👉Oracle $ORCL Earnings

Thursday:
👉Initial Jobless Claims
👉Broadcom $AVGO Earnings

#news

👀👀👉Polymarket: 93-94% Probability of a 25 Basis
Point Rate Cut

Odds have risen steadily in recent weeks, driven by shifting economic signals like softer job numbers and moderated inflation. On November 26, probabilities surpassed 80%; by December 1, they hit 91%; December 3 saw 87%; and by December 4-5, they reached 93-94%.
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Weeks prior, expectations were lower due to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation, which tempered rate-cut bets before recent data reversed sentiment. Similar patterns occurred earlier in 2025, such as post-Jackson Hole remarks boosting September odds above 80%.

#Fed

👀👀👉US Core PCE Holds Steady at 0.2% m/m in September 2025, Supports FED Rate Cuts

The US Core PCE Price Index m/m at 0.2% for September 2025 signals stable but persistent underlying inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the year-over-year rate at 2.8%, indicating a cooling trend from earlier peaks yet no rapid disinflation.
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This data suggests moderating price pressures amid a softening economy, including slower consumer spending and a cooling labor market, which could support future Fed rate cuts if trends continue. However, sticky services inflation, especially housing, keeps overall inflation elevated, reinforcing a "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance into 2026.
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As the Fed's preferred gauge, the steady m/m reading aligns with projections for core PCE to average 2.6% in Q4 2025 before easing further, balancing recession risks against incomplete progress toward the target. Markets reacted positively to the in-line figures, boosting equities without shifting aggressive cut expectations.

#PCE