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0x86060c6f7d9558a219ce7fa4d1080577b7a84444 Persist every day, unity of knowledge and action Unity of knowledge and action, not less than 10m, do not get off $BNB #巨鲸动向
$ETH Has the market already anticipated the anticipation? 12.19 Why will the Japanese interest rate hike cause Bitcoin to crash? Why will the market experience a sell-off?
The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates this week.
History shows that $BTC does not like interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
This week, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19.
The prediction market estimates a 97% probability of a 25 basis point hike; this will be the first rate hike since January 2025.
This is significant because Japan is going against the global trend; while most major central banks are easing monetary policy, the Bank of Japan is tightening it.
This is not just about interest rates.
The Bank of Japan has confirmed that it plans to sell ETF holdings worth approximately $550 billion starting in January 2026.
Additionally, the government will slow down the quantitative easing program that is set to take effect from April 2026, which has been in place for a long time.
But what impact will this have on Bitcoin?
Let's review the Bank of Japan's past interest rate hikes.
• March 2024 interest rate hike → Bitcoin dropped 20% within 6 weeks • July 2024 interest rate hike → Bitcoin fell 26% in one week • January 2025 interest rate hike → BTC dropped over 30% in 4-6 weeks.
Each rate hike triggers significant sell-offs in the cryptocurrency market.
So it is reasonable for the market to remain cautious.
But this time, the situation is actually a bit different.
In these three cases, Bitcoin's price was at or near historical highs. Today, Bitcoin's price has dropped about 30% from recent highs.
This means that most of the tightening policy's impact may have already been digested by the market.
Therefore, the rate hike itself may not be the main risk. The real signal will be the Bank of Japan's guidance for 2026.
Two scenarios are crucial:
Hawkish 2026 outlook: More rate hikes and a faster pace of bond issuance,
This could break the yen carry trades and potentially cause serious harm to stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Cautious outlook: Take a break after hiking, preparing to participate in the upcoming meetings.
This could likely trigger a flash crash, after which the market may rebound for a while.
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#加密市场观察 No matter whether you are trading or making memes on your face As long as you Align knowledge and action
0x86060c6f7d9558a219ce7fa4d1080577b7a84444
Know what you are doing What your goal is You will achieve results. Brothers must align knowledge and action in trading. Brothers, have those in the chatroom gotten it? Currently three times now. This is just the beginning, give it time to freely develop Align knowledge and action
以太坊王者
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Bullish
Today, the first sister retweeted an interview, where she mentioned the origin of her name, The unity of knowledge and action, this perspective is quite interesting. It is not just reminding us of the unity of knowledge and action.
0x86060c6f7d9558a219ce7fa4d1080577b7a84444 {web3_wallet_create}(560x86060c6f7d9558a219ce7fa4d1080577b7a84444) Everyone can lie in wait. Let's first look at the new heights. I think this perspective is at least M-level for Chinese, If we are talking about the Binance life period, at least 10M or even 100M It is even much better than the Binance life perspective. #加密市场观察 $BNB {future}(BNBUSDT) $ETH {future}(ETHUSDT)