币毒

What could be sold has long been sold; we’re not working on the weekend—there aren’t even any sell orders for the ETF. If it continues on Monday, the sell orders will be depleted, while the buy-side keeps its momentum. The rebound point for this round should be higher than the rebound after the previous big drop.

Last time, the rebound stopped abruptly after the market fell further, compounded by the Middle East situation and even interest-rate-hike expectations. But this time, there are none of those issues. After last Thursday’s NFP data, rate-cut expectations have started to form, so the shorts should probably lay low.

The best place to short this round of the rebound is around $BTC 71000 $ETH 2000+

Morning news is here: BTC temporarily at $62,923, ETH $1,770, BNB $572, SOL $81. The total market cap across the market has returned to $2.26T. Over the past 24h, the overall market has modestly rebounded. BTC and ETH are relatively strong, while SOL is still consolidating.

From the chart, it doesn’t look particularly euphoric—more like sideways consolidation after a rebound. At this point, I’ll say the same thing as before: don’t get carried away by one or two bullish candles. Keep focusing on whether the main trend—BTC’s stability—is holding. Altcoins are only for picking the stronger ones to watch. That’s it for today: control the pace and don’t chase blindly.

The market doesn’t seem to be particularly eager to buy, but it’s becoming increasingly unwilling to sell.

If there were a very strong uptrend, you would see a large number of chasing buy orders rushing in, the order book would be pushed up continuously, and sentiment would be very hot.

But now it’s more like this: the selling pressure underneath is getting lighter. The people who should have sold earlier have already sold, and macro conditions haven’t continued to move further toward worse territory. So many holders are no longer willing to keep handing their positions over at this level.

That’s also why, recently, the market doesn’t look especially explosive, but it’s just not easy to dump.

For BTC, it feels more like it’s moving in a slightly bullish sideways range. It’s not strong enough for people to blindly chase long positions, but it’s also not weak enough to be suitable for heavily loading up on shorts. On top, there’s still a missing catalyst that could fully accelerate the market. However, the support underneath has been much steadier than it was a while ago.

ETH feels even more obvious. After it was weak for a round earlier, if fresh negative news doesn’t keep pressing down, once the coins are locked up, it’s actually easier for it to form that kind of structure where pullbacks don’t go very deep and rebounds happen quickly. In plain terms, there just aren’t as many people willing to sell anymore.

Brothers who are eating investment and airdrops at Binance with $USD1 need to pay attention.

The $USD1 airdrop rules have been refined a step further. Starting from 8:00 AM on July 3, if you want to receive the 1.2x bonus with annualized returns, simply holding USD1 in your leveraged account or futures account is no longer enough. You also need to keep the daily open position amount stable at 300 USD1 or above on the USD1 contract trading pair.

The most important point here is that Binance uses hourly snapshots and calculates based on the daily low value. That means it’s not enough to have your position reach 300 at some moment in the day. As long as there is any hour during the day that falls below this threshold, you won’t get the 1.2x bonus for that day.

Another key detail is that the borrowed USD1 is not equal to your effective balance. If a user’s USD1 mainly comes from leveraged borrowing or VIP borrowing, the system will deduct the related liabilities first and then calculate the eligible balance. In other words, the amount of USD1 shown on the books may not equal the effective position that can ultimately participate in the reward allocation.

In one sentence to summarize this rules update: Binance is shifting the USD1 airdrop from a somewhat static holding-based reward to a distribution mechanism that emphasizes real participation and ongoing activity, so that $USD1 can get moving.

Meanwhile, in addition to the BTC/USD1 contract trading pair opened earlier, the ETH/USD1 trading pair was also enabled yesterday. #USD1

Quick look at the morning of July 4: BTC 62704 (+2.3%), ETH 1757 (+3.7%), BNB 573.7 (+2.9%), SOL 82.4 (+2.0%). The total market cap across the entire network has returned to $2.26 trillion, with about $67.0 billion in trading volume over the past 24 hours. The market still feels mostly like a corrective repair; the main theme hasn’t changed. Don’t get carried away just because it’s up—first, see whether volume can continue to keep up.

62603, 60741 — these two prices correspond to the liquidation volumes of the long and short sides, respectively.

62603 will liquidate a position of 71.8 million, for a cumulative liquidation of 278 million.

60741 will liquidate a position of 111 million, for a cumulative liquidation of 290 million.

They’re evenly matched—roughly a draw, neither clearly outweighing the other.

Tonight, the US stock market will be closed for Independence Day over there and will not open.

Coming right after last weekend, that means 3 straight days. Last night’s non-farm payrolls data gave people hope that there won’t be any rate hikes, or even that there could be rate cuts. So for longs, these 3 days are favorable.

However, it’s also important to note that market makers move price up and down during this period. In this round of the rally, the performance of $ETH and $SOL is clearly better than $BTC . Bitcoin, at the 62500 level, encountered a strong resistance zone and still remains in a downtrend.

This is a rebound, not a reversal—so don’t blindly chase “stars and seas.” Taking profits in time is one of the survival rules in a bear market.#比特币较1月峰值下跌44%

Is there anyone from Xi’an or Hangzhou here? Teacher Dashouzi wants to treat us to a meal—sign up through me.

A bit unexpected—after losing so much over the past couple of days, it’s still on the profit leaderboard.

This leaderboard is updated daily, and if I still made it on today, then I truly am on the list. But over the past few days, going short before and after really cost me a lot. The badge is still there, which shows that the market right now is genuinely tough.

Even though it rose a lot last night, many people still didn’t make money. The market remains deep and volatile—many people have already stopped, and most are losing money.

Also, my followers have surpassed 50K. Next goal: 100K.

Morning, the market is a bit recovering. BTC 61236 (+2.5%), ETH 1694 (+5.7%), BNB 557 (+1.7%), SOL 80.7 (+4.6%). The total market cap across the entire network is back around $2.21 trillion. This upswing has more elasticity in ETH and SOL; altcoin sentiment is a little more comfortable than the past couple of days. But I’ll say the same thing again: first look for sustainability in the rebound—don’t get carried away after just one bullish candle.

Can you understand it? I even fixed the computer just for this picture.
To interpret the lines in the picture, the screen has to be big, clear, and obvious at a glance.

Before Trading vs After Trading

.

Profit and loss share the same root—admit mistakes and cut losses.

BlackRock is already at work; tonight they prepared 4916 flatbreads. This does not constitute investment advice.

Ma Ji made a profit of 10 wu on this trade—if it were you, would you be willing to do it?

Currently holding 3,000 coins. Opened at 1614 on $ETH , liquidation price at 1602.

Guess whether Teacher Ma Ji will walk away with the profit in the end, or whether he’ll stick with the old-school style of trading.

Tonight we’ll keep an eye on two sets of data:

The Non-Farm Payrolls expectation is roughly 100k, and the unemployment rate forecast is 4.2%.

If Non-Farm Payrolls comes in above 150k, it means the U.S. job market is still strong; rate-cut expectations are likely to be pushed back, which would weigh on crypto.

If Non-Farm Payrolls falls between 80k and 120k, it’s basically in line with expectations. The market will most likely first focus on the unemployment rate and the revisions to the prior figures.

If Non-Farm Payrolls is below 70k, it suggests employment is starting to cool noticeably—but that doesn’t necessarily directly benefit risk assets. We also have to see whether the market will first price in a recession.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate is even more critical:

Above 4.2%: the market will start to worry that the economy is weakening.
Equal to 4.2%: neutral.
Below 4.2%: it indicates employment is still holding up well, and rate-cut expectations will actually get pushed back.

In one sentence: the most comfortable outcome for the market tonight would be Non-Farm Payrolls around 100k and the unemployment rate at 4.2%.

Too strong won’t work, and too weak won’t work either.

The trend hasn't changed—institutions are still selling, selling, selling.

This is the direction of the times; it won't change because of individual will or effort.

Even though you and I both don't want to admit it, crypto assets are not the best investment target right now. All illusions must be shattered with a drop below every fantasy before new imagination can be opened up.

A period of gloom in an era, for ordinary people, is just like it is now: worn out, helpless, resigned, giving up—and finally, rebirth.

Binance launched in the US stock market only 30 days ago, and AUM already surpassed $1 billion.

I think many people underestimate this.

In the past, everyone always assumed that crypto users wouldn’t buy US stocks, and that US stock users wouldn’t come trade crypto—because the two groups were completely different.

But Binance has proven something: many people don’t not want to buy US stocks; they just don’t want to open another brokerage account just to buy US stocks.

Once stocks, ETFs, and crypto are all put into the same account system, users simply won’t care whether they’re trading crypto or stocks—they’ll just choose the assets with better current returns and bigger opportunities.

This is also what I’ve been saying all along: what Binance truly wants to build isn’t just a crypto exchange, but a global asset trading platform.

$1 billion is really just the beginning.

As more and more traditional assets get moved into the crypto account system, when people open Binance, their first thing might not be to check BTC—it might be to see whether today’s US stocks, gold, or crypto is actually the better buy.

Played a game last night—only a single round—and I hesitated to spend 8,000 yuan. Woke up after a nap and I’d lost the equivalent of 7 rounds 🥺