比特币百舸争流
X推特：@bitcoin100ships ／YouTube：@bitcoinbaige 百舸争流／擅长威科夫量价分析，每天在YouTube日更行情分析交流视频。
16 Following
1.8K+ Followers
18.1K+ Liked
1.5K+ Shared
All
Quotes
Videos
PINNED
See original
ETH is the future
Back in 2017, Tom Lee was one of the few formally dressed men on CNBC who dared to publicly be optimistic about Bitcoin.
Not the kind of talk like 'Bitcoin is a tulip craze,' nor the saying that 'blockchain is important, not Bitcoin.' He suggested institutional investors treat Bitcoin as digital gold—buying it before the world reacted. At the time, this sounded more like a college debate in a fog than a mature strategy. Fundstrat
Even lost some clients because of it.
You know, at that time, Bitcoin was only trading around $1,000, and most people still regarded it as a speculative toy, or even a den of criminals. Of course, Lee's views later became more and more fragrant like aged wine...
Not the kind of talk like 'Bitcoin is a tulip craze,' nor the saying that 'blockchain is important, not Bitcoin.' He suggested institutional investors treat Bitcoin as digital gold—buying it before the world reacted. At the time, this sounded more like a college debate in a fog than a mature strategy. Fundstrat
Even lost some clients because of it.
You know, at that time, Bitcoin was only trading around $1,000, and most people still regarded it as a speculative toy, or even a den of criminals. Of course, Lee's views later became more and more fragrant like aged wine...
See original
December 17: Market Update-
I mentioned in yesterday's update that $88.1k (weekly opening price) is likely to become a resistance level for Bitcoin, and after a period of recovery, it was exactly there that it encountered rejection. Besides being the weekly opening price, this is also a bearish retest of the orange trend line. If this resistance level is reclaimed, we may see a push towards $90k, where the CME gap has not yet been fully filled. $85k (Monday's low) remains a key support level that needs to be defended in any further retracement.
This morning, the coins showing volatility are: CELO, C98, ONE.
I mentioned in yesterday's update that $88.1k (weekly opening price) is likely to become a resistance level for Bitcoin, and after a period of recovery, it was exactly there that it encountered rejection. Besides being the weekly opening price, this is also a bearish retest of the orange trend line. If this resistance level is reclaimed, we may see a push towards $90k, where the CME gap has not yet been fully filled. $85k (Monday's low) remains a key support level that needs to be defended in any further retracement.
This morning, the coins showing volatility are: CELO, C98, ONE.
See original
$BTC The market isn't good, each shows their skills like the Eight Immortals crossing the sea, Bitcoin general changed careers to sell meatballs 🤔👍❤️
See original
$BTC The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, compared to an expectation of 50,000.
The U.S. unemployment rate in November is 4.6%, with an expectation of 4.5%.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021!
This indicates that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates again as they aim to maintain employment.
The U.S. unemployment rate in November is 4.6%, with an expectation of 4.5%.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021!
This indicates that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates again as they aim to maintain employment.
See original
$BTC Remember:
The true way of trading lies in waiting for opportunities, as trading is not like other things where you can create opportunities. A great signal can make our profits more effective. Profit is always better than loss, there is no doubt about that.
The market situations we can take advantage of are always limited, and everyone knows this; one can only earn money within their understanding. Many market situations are just for show, as not everyone has the ability to seize them all. If one's mindset is not good during the observation process, it can lead to emotions like unwillingness, regret, and missing out on various opportunities.
Yesterday, the maximum position for long positions that were liquidated was at 87500, 86000. Currently, we need to observe if there is short-term rebound demand; I speculate it won't be too significant. Emotions. Therefore, internal cultivation is very important!
The true way of trading lies in waiting for opportunities, as trading is not like other things where you can create opportunities. A great signal can make our profits more effective. Profit is always better than loss, there is no doubt about that.
The market situations we can take advantage of are always limited, and everyone knows this; one can only earn money within their understanding. Many market situations are just for show, as not everyone has the ability to seize them all. If one's mindset is not good during the observation process, it can lead to emotions like unwillingness, regret, and missing out on various opportunities.
Yesterday, the maximum position for long positions that were liquidated was at 87500, 86000. Currently, we need to observe if there is short-term rebound demand; I speculate it won't be too significant. Emotions. Therefore, internal cultivation is very important!
See original
$BTC #币安合约 10 Winning Streak:
12:03 ZEC Yield 470%
12:03 DOGE Yield 215%
12:05 BTC Yield 167%
12:06 BCH Yield 290%
12:08 BTC Yield 111%
12:09 SOL Yield 84%
12:10 BTC Yield 255%
12:11 BTC Yield 100%
12:12 ETH Yield 128%
12:15 BCH Yield 200%
From Brother Feng's VIP Group Buy Group ❤️ 10 consecutive wins, all efforts are worth it! This year there has been a maximum of 23 consecutive wins, more than 10 wins is not much for Brother Feng, and there won't be too much excitement, the mindset and emotions remain very stable, continue to maintain good trading habits, and aim for greater profits in this wave.
Join the Brother Buy Group Membership Group, many excellent teachers, enjoy one-on-one consulting services 🤝 to get more accurate strategies.
12:03 ZEC Yield 470%
12:03 DOGE Yield 215%
12:05 BTC Yield 167%
12:06 BCH Yield 290%
12:08 BTC Yield 111%
12:09 SOL Yield 84%
12:10 BTC Yield 255%
12:11 BTC Yield 100%
12:12 ETH Yield 128%
12:15 BCH Yield 200%
From Brother Feng's VIP Group Buy Group ❤️ 10 consecutive wins, all efforts are worth it! This year there has been a maximum of 23 consecutive wins, more than 10 wins is not much for Brother Feng, and there won't be too much excitement, the mindset and emotions remain very stable, continue to maintain good trading habits, and aim for greater profits in this wave.
Join the Brother Buy Group Membership Group, many excellent teachers, enjoy one-on-one consulting services 🤝 to get more accurate strategies.
See original
$BCH Short position take profit! Yesterday in the VIP group, I suggested shorting it on Monday morning, and before going to bed at night, I took profit and closed the position. Earning money is as free as breathing #币安合约
See original
$BTC This week is destined to be wonderful 😊
There is a lot of news, non-farm payrolls, CPI and Japanese interest rates
There is a lot of news, non-farm payrolls, CPI and Japanese interest rates
See original
Discussion on US Stocks Next Week
#美股干货 Brother Bai clubhouse 12/12 notes. The stock market is still following my system's budget from last week, with not much divergence. My budget from last week was during the Japanese interest rate hike on 12/19, and there is a significant chance that stocks will pull back to around 6700-6750. The closing on Friday, 12/12, was around 6820, so next week I will continue to watch for small pullbacks and fluctuations. The system still sees a slight pullback, this time a higher low (the chance of breaking below last month's 6500-6520 level is not very high). Therefore, continue to buy the market SPY after a small pullback, call SPX, or sell put SPY, SPX. I still expect 7360 next year.
See original
$ETH The second Ethereum is about to plummet next week! 90% probability!
For short-term layout, short at the current price of Ethereum around 3115.
Stop Loss: 3185
Take Profit: 2940
Enter with a light position!!! #百哥VIP干货 analysis #币安合约 discussion and exchange, not trading advice, high risk, please take responsibility yourself.
For short-term layout, short at the current price of Ethereum around 3115.
Stop Loss: 3185
Take Profit: 2940
Enter with a light position!!! #百哥VIP干货 analysis #币安合约 discussion and exchange, not trading advice, high risk, please take responsibility yourself.
See original
$BTC Institutional-led Cycle: A Structural Break from Previous Bitcoin Bull Markets
In past Bitcoin cycles, the evolutionary order has been highly consistent:
Prices accelerate upwards first, followed by retail investors entering the market, peaking with on-chain congestion near the cycle's top, where latecomers compete for block space. High transaction fees are a result of overheating, not a driving factor.
However, this cycle has broken that pattern.
The most significant instance of mempool congestion and fee pressure expansion occurred in the early phase of the cycle, coinciding perfectly with the launch of BlackRock's IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF. The key here is that this round of on-chain activity does not stem from retail enthusiasm, but rather reflects an institutional allocation phase — large amounts of capital entering the asset class through regulated ETF channels, rather than directly through on-chain spot purchases.
This shift is crucial.
Institutional investors do not chase momentum at the end of a cycle. They often position themselves early when narratives are unclear, liquidity is switching, and structural access conditions are improving. The launch of IBIT is not a speculative event, but a liquidity entry point that allows pensions, asset management institutions, and advisors to complete allocations before traditional bull market dynamics become apparent.
Therefore:
Institutional demand has led the cycle, rather than being confirmed afterward.
On-chain congestion peaked early rather than late, reflecting structural accumulation rather than retail FOMO.
The subsequent price expansion is accompanied by lower levels of on-chain retail saturation, unlike previous cycles.
This also explains why the price increase has not been accompanied by the common 'ultimate overheating' signals seen at previous cycle tops. Historically, the key factor determining Bitcoin's tops — retail participation — has been relatively restrained in this cycle, while institutions have continued to accumulate positions through ETFs.
Essentially, this round of the cycle has been 'pulled forward' by institutional capital.
The ETF era has not ended the cycle; it has opened it.
Retail-driven excessive speculation has always marked the top of Bitcoin;
Institution-driven access marks the maturation phase of Bitcoin and the fundamental differentiation of this cycle from previous peaks.
This is not a late-stage retail bubble.
This is an early-stage institutional positioning phase.
In past Bitcoin cycles, the evolutionary order has been highly consistent:
Prices accelerate upwards first, followed by retail investors entering the market, peaking with on-chain congestion near the cycle's top, where latecomers compete for block space. High transaction fees are a result of overheating, not a driving factor.
However, this cycle has broken that pattern.
The most significant instance of mempool congestion and fee pressure expansion occurred in the early phase of the cycle, coinciding perfectly with the launch of BlackRock's IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF. The key here is that this round of on-chain activity does not stem from retail enthusiasm, but rather reflects an institutional allocation phase — large amounts of capital entering the asset class through regulated ETF channels, rather than directly through on-chain spot purchases.
This shift is crucial.
Institutional investors do not chase momentum at the end of a cycle. They often position themselves early when narratives are unclear, liquidity is switching, and structural access conditions are improving. The launch of IBIT is not a speculative event, but a liquidity entry point that allows pensions, asset management institutions, and advisors to complete allocations before traditional bull market dynamics become apparent.
Therefore:
Institutional demand has led the cycle, rather than being confirmed afterward.
On-chain congestion peaked early rather than late, reflecting structural accumulation rather than retail FOMO.
The subsequent price expansion is accompanied by lower levels of on-chain retail saturation, unlike previous cycles.
This also explains why the price increase has not been accompanied by the common 'ultimate overheating' signals seen at previous cycle tops. Historically, the key factor determining Bitcoin's tops — retail participation — has been relatively restrained in this cycle, while institutions have continued to accumulate positions through ETFs.
Essentially, this round of the cycle has been 'pulled forward' by institutional capital.
The ETF era has not ended the cycle; it has opened it.
Retail-driven excessive speculation has always marked the top of Bitcoin;
Institution-driven access marks the maturation phase of Bitcoin and the fundamental differentiation of this cycle from previous peaks.
This is not a late-stage retail bubble.
This is an early-stage institutional positioning phase.
See original
$BTC 📉 IBIT: Historical Exponential Moving Average (EMA) divergence indicates downside risk
From historical data, when Bitcoin's 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) falls below the 50-week EMA, the price trend often tends to decline further, especially during bear markets or at the end of economic cycles. This divergence phenomenon usually signifies a loss of short-term momentum, with upward trends evolving into corrections, while the weekly average price forms resistance levels.
IBIT currently displays the same structural characteristics. The 50-day EMA is crossing below the 50-week EMA, indicating that short-term demand is weakening compared to longer-term trends.
Unless the weekly structure can be effectively repaired, the continuation of the downward trend remains a more probable outcome, consistent with Bitcoin's past trend patterns.
Momentum leads, and price follows.
#百哥VIP internal data
From historical data, when Bitcoin's 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) falls below the 50-week EMA, the price trend often tends to decline further, especially during bear markets or at the end of economic cycles. This divergence phenomenon usually signifies a loss of short-term momentum, with upward trends evolving into corrections, while the weekly average price forms resistance levels.
IBIT currently displays the same structural characteristics. The 50-day EMA is crossing below the 50-week EMA, indicating that short-term demand is weakening compared to longer-term trends.
Unless the weekly structure can be effectively repaired, the continuation of the downward trend remains a more probable outcome, consistent with Bitcoin's past trend patterns.
Momentum leads, and price follows.
#百哥VIP internal data
See original
$BTC As analyzed, since December, Bitcoin has formed a fluctuating squeeze, and the possibilities of how the intermediate fluctuation structure will move are mostly uncertain. We'll wait for a breakthrough or breakdown at key positions before taking action. — VIP group teacher Bitcoin Commander
See original
Contract Experience Accumulation Reflection Summary: On Win Rate and Profit-Loss Ratio
See original
Learning about Winning Rate and Profit-Loss Ratio
$ETH Summary after taking profit on a short position.
Today in the video mentioned the issue of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, here is a supplement.
Because many people do not think clearly about this issue, it leads to unclear plans, indecisive positions, and unclear goals during the trading process, ultimately resulting in losing big due to panic.
Winning rate and profit-loss ratio, usually, one can only choose one.
If you want to pursue a high winning rate, you need to be quick and decisive, avoiding prolonged battles; once the target is reached, you should exit.
For example, with a profit space of 5000 points, you only capture 2000 points, quickly closing the position, and wait for new trading opportunities the next day, while the large profits brought by big fluctuations are achieved through phased exits and using remaining positions for speculation, whether you have it or not.
Today in the video mentioned the issue of winning rate and profit-loss ratio, here is a supplement.
Because many people do not think clearly about this issue, it leads to unclear plans, indecisive positions, and unclear goals during the trading process, ultimately resulting in losing big due to panic.
Winning rate and profit-loss ratio, usually, one can only choose one.
If you want to pursue a high winning rate, you need to be quick and decisive, avoiding prolonged battles; once the target is reached, you should exit.
For example, with a profit space of 5000 points, you only capture 2000 points, quickly closing the position, and wait for new trading opportunities the next day, while the large profits brought by big fluctuations are achieved through phased exits and using remaining positions for speculation, whether you have it or not.
See original
The profit-taking short position has already been closed, this is an intraday scalping trade.
$ETH short position follow-up, and the VIP group teacher Feng Ge, entered the short position yesterday at 9 PM on the 12th
also profitable 😊
difference is that the Gaul people started shorting the day before on the 11th, with a longer trading time #币安合约
also profitable 😊
difference is that the Gaul people started shorting the day before on the 11th, with a longer trading time #币安合约
See original
$ETH short position follow-up, and the VIP group teacher Feng Ge, entered the short position yesterday at 9 PM on the 12th
also profitable 😊
difference is that the Gaul people started shorting the day before on the 11th, with a longer trading time #币安合约
also profitable 😊
difference is that the Gaul people started shorting the day before on the 11th, with a longer trading time #币安合约
See original
$ETH Trading Follow-up 🤝 VIP Group Teacher Gallic 12th December Reminder to Short Ethereum!
👉 Price has dropped 4% compared to our entry price 🚫
👉 Be sure to lock in some profits here and move up the stop-loss level from the entry point
👉 Another accurate analysis
#币安合约
#Trader百哥VIP团购群
👉 Price has dropped 4% compared to our entry price 🚫
👉 Be sure to lock in some profits here and move up the stop-loss level from the entry point
👉 Another accurate analysis
#币安合约
#Trader百哥VIP团购群
See original
$TAO The next Bitcoin, the king of the AI era, target 10,000 US dollars in five years? How about that?
See original
$BTC Essential knowledge for encrypted individuals, the two American institutions FOMC and SEC both have the letter 'c' in their names, but their meanings are quite different!
The full name of the US SEC is: United States Securities and Exchange Commission
It is the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States, responsible for regulating the securities market and protecting investors' rights.
The one that set the interest rates yesterday was: Federal Open Market Committee
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve. FOMC is primarily responsible for formulating the monetary policy of the United States, such as adjusting interest rates.
Therefore, the functions and focus of these two committees are completely different.
In these two terms, the distinction between 'Committee' and 'Commission' mainly lies in their nature and scope of responsibilities.
Generally speaking, 'Committee' tends to focus more on a specialized small group, usually established for a specific task,
while 'Commission' refers more to an agency with broader powers and responsibilities, which may involve regulation, decision-making, or execution.
The full name of the US SEC is: United States Securities and Exchange Commission
It is the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States, responsible for regulating the securities market and protecting investors' rights.
The one that set the interest rates yesterday was: Federal Open Market Committee
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve. FOMC is primarily responsible for formulating the monetary policy of the United States, such as adjusting interest rates.
Therefore, the functions and focus of these two committees are completely different.
In these two terms, the distinction between 'Committee' and 'Commission' mainly lies in their nature and scope of responsibilities.
Generally speaking, 'Committee' tends to focus more on a specialized small group, usually established for a specific task,
while 'Commission' refers more to an agency with broader powers and responsibilities, which may involve regulation, decision-making, or execution.
Login to explore more contents