AnhBo

📌 1. Overall picture $BTC 11/2025 - 01/2026

The chart shows:
• BTC Price (black line)
• STH Cost Basis (orange line): the average cost basis of short-term investors
• STH CB +1σ (red) and STH CB –1σ (green): volatility bands
• The green circles mark the times when the BTC price touches the STH Cost Basis area or lower → creating a short-term bottom.
Currently (green circle on the right):
• The BTC price is touching or falling below the STH Cost Basis, similar to the periods of 2020 – 2022 – 2023 – early 2024.

📌 2. Significance of the current signal
Historically, whenever:
👉 BTC falls below the STH Cost Basis
•Short-term investors start to incur unrealized losses
•Market sentiment turns cautious – pessimistic
•This is often the area: Creating a short-term bottom or Beginning a recovery cycle

Looking at the 3 previous green circles:
•2020 → price rebounded strongly immediately after
•End of 2022 → created a bottom and rose into 2023
•Mid 2023 → retested and then surged at the end of the year

The current state resembles the bottoming phases of previous cycles.

📌3. BTC price outlook in the SHORT TERM (1–4 weeks)

Based on the repeating behavior of the STH Cost Basis:
🔹 High probability scenario (60–70%)

BTC will have a bounce when the price is testing the STH CB area – similar to previous critical reversal points.
Short-term target level:
•Return to the STH CB area (orange line)
•Then retest the STH CB +1σ area (red line)
→ This is a common technical recovery area seen after each deep correction.

🔹 Alternative scenario (30–40%)
If the macro market is bad or liquidity weakens:
• BTC may slightly break below the STH CB –1σ (green)(around 79k then surge strongly)

Crazy illusion

Nếu CZ (Binance) và Terraform Labs cùng lúc đốt toàn bộ lượng $LUNC trong các ví liên quan đến Terra Classic, đây sẽ là bước ngoặt lớn nhất của hệ sinh thái kể từ sau sự cố năm 2022.

Hành động này tạo ra cú sốc cung (Supply Shock) cực mạnh: nguồn cung giảm đột ngột, thị trường khan hiếm và giá có khả năng tăng bứt phá. Niềm tin của cộng đồng được khôi phục mạnh mẽ vì lần đầu tiên cả sàn giao dịch lớn nhất và đội ngũ dự án gốc cùng chung tay tái thiết Terra Classic.

Sự phối hợp này còn giúp tăng uy tín hệ sinh thái, thu hút nhà phát triển mới, kích hoạt dòng tiền quay trở lại và đẩy mạnh hoạt động của validator, DeFi và staking. Đây không chỉ là một động thái kỹ thuật, mà là thông điệp:
“Terra Classic được làm sạch – và được mở lại một chương mới.”

Tóm lại, nếu cả CZ và TFL cùng burn: LUNC có cơ hội tái sinh thực sự, giá trị tăng mạnh và thị trường bước vào một chu kỳ niềm tin hoàn toàn mới.

chuẩn nha bạn

1. The court has ruled on Do Kwon's crime – What will happen?

Do Kwon officially receives a penalty in the US, there will be three main impacts:

(1) Legal factors become clearer

The market always hates uncertainty. When Do Kwon pleads guilty, the entire legal saga lasting many years will come to an end. This helps:
• Eliminate the overarching "legal risk" surrounding Terra Classic.
• Create a sense that the past has been "locked away," and the ecosystem can be restructured independently of Do Kwon.

(2) Community trust may increase slightly

When everything is transparent, the community can more easily come up with new plans:
• Burn strategy
• Reform the governance system
• Focus on real utility

From a market psychology standpoint, this sends a positive signal as the "old wounds have been resolved."

(3) Terra 2.0 and Terra Classic are completely separate

Do Kwon's guilty plea further clarifies that:
• TFL's Terra 2.0 = a separate path
• Terra Classic = entirely community-operated

This helps LUNC be seen as an independent ecosystem — no longer bound by Do Kwon's past.
⸻

2. If the Terra wallet burns tokens according to community voting

(1) Burning Terra wallets (TFL wallet or old ecosystem wallets) will be a positive shock

If the community approves a proposal to burn some or all tokens from old wallets:
• LUNC supply significantly decreases
• Future selling pressure decreases
• Recovery narrative is strongly activated

This is a very "bullish" story as it directly impacts tokenomics.

(2) LUNC price may spike significantly

$LUNC always relies on two factors:
1. Strong burn
2. The rebirth story to keep people always attentive.

$LUNA Please refer to.

👉 Buy probe
• Wait for price retest 0.165 or deeper 0.15x
• Only buy when volume recovers

Holding stocks 🤔
• Hold if the price does not close a 4H candle below 0.165
• If it breaks 0.165, the chance of going to 0.15 is very high → consider taking partial profit

Short trade 🟩
• Enter when the price surpasses 0.185 with good volume
• Target 0.20 – 0.21

The entire ecosystem will come to life, but don't expect too much.

Đừng quá lạc quan, xem tín hiệu hồi phục đã

The ecosystem is starting to unleash its power.

Please comment and share if you find it useful

Analysis: The conviction of Do Kwon – Is it beneficial or detrimental for Terra Classic?

1. Legal pressure relieved — A significant "turning point"

Over the past 2 years, the Terra Classic system has been hanging in the balance due to legal factors related to Do Kwon.
His conviction helps to end the uncertainty, reducing systemic risk, especially:
• No worries about the possibility of "one fine day" Do Kwon being acquitted and declaring a return to Terra 2.0 or interfering with LUNC.
• Creating a more transparent environment for validators, developers, and the community.

⟶ In terms of market psychology: beneficial.
⸻

2. Terra Classic has completely separated from Do Kwon

The Terra Classic system (LUNC/USTC) is now operated by the community, no longer dependent on or related to Do Kwon.

His sentence inadvertently reinforces the narrative that:

“Terra Classic is a self-recovering community project, no longer involving the founder.”

This helps attract a new group of investors who favor “community-driven” projects.

⟶ Beneficial in terms of narrative & communication.
⸻

3. Reduced legal risks for exchanges

Some exchanges have been cautious with LUNC due to concerns related to the Do Kwon lawsuit.
Now that everything is clear, the likelihood of:
• Re-listing,
• Opening margin,
• Opening staking,
• Or reducing trading restrictions… will be higher.

⟶ This is a positive signal for long-term liquidity.
⸻

4. However: No immediate large impact

The Terra Classic system still needs to truly revive:
• Technology updates,
• New cash flow,
• Real-world applications,
• Community unification,
• Clear USTC & LUNC burn roadmap.

Do Kwon's conviction does not cause an immediate price pump, but it removes one of the biggest "bottlenecks". ⟶ Positive $LUNC $USTC

💹 FED UPDATE ON LIQUIDITY – GLOBAL MARKETS ARE HOLDING THEIR BREATH
05h30 (GMT +7)

The liquidity of the FED through the balance sheet is always one of the most important indicators for the financial market – especially for crypto, stocks, and forex.

📌 1. Why is the liquidity number important?

The balance sheet reflects the amount of money that the FED pumps into or withdraws from the system.
• When the FED increases liquidity, cheap money flows into the market → risky assets increase in price.
• When the FED decreases liquidity, the market tightens → money flow contracts → prices can easily drop.

Just a small change in the balance sheet can create significant volatility.

⸻

🔍 2. Two important scenarios for the day

🔼 Scenario 1: Liquidity > $6.53 trillion

→ This is a slight expansionary monetary state, indicating that the financial system is being supported.
→ Crypto, gold, stocks, and other currencies tend to rise sharply.
→ The market expects lower risk, and money circulates more quickly.

🟩 Impact: Very positive for BTC, ETH, low-cap Altcoins. $ETH

⸻

😴 Scenario 2: Liquidity = around $6.50 trillion

→ This is a neutral maintenance level, neither pumping nor withdrawing.
→ The market is sideways, stable, and liquidity does not change significantly.

🟦 Impact: Low volatility, slight price fluctuations $BTC
⸻

🧭 3. Why is the crypto market the most concerned?

Crypto is the most sensitive asset to money flow, so each change from the FED can create a significant impact:
• Increasing liquidity → money flows into altcoins → forms a new upward wave
• Decreasing liquidity → BTC holds its price, altcoins can easily adjust strongly

Reason: Crypto operates largely based on expectations and speculation, so it reacts faster than stocks.

with the same content

with the same content

@Binance BiBi this information is correct?

All 3 $LUNC $LUNA $USTC are running. It seems Luna is leading and running faster.
It is a cycle. Will we reach the finish line or face another breakdown.

Tricked again 😂😂😂😂

🌓 Understanding LUNC, USTC, and LUNA 2 – The Terra Split Explained

After the dramatic collapse of the Terra ecosystem in 2022, the network was divided into two parts: the old Terra chain and the new Terra chain. This led to the creation of three separate tokens that still confuse many people today. Here’s the clearest way to understand them:
⸻

1️⃣ LUNC (Luna Classic)

LUNC is the original Terra token, previously known simply as LUNA.
When the algorithmic stablecoin UST lost its peg and triggered a market crash in 2022, the original Terra blockchain was rebranded as Terra Classic, and its native token was renamed LUNC.
• Represents the old chain
• Maintained by an active community
• Continues to be traded on major exchanges
• Still focuses on rebuilding after the collapse
⸻

2️⃣ USTC (TerraClassicUSD)

USTC is the old version of UST, the algorithmic stablecoin that was once meant to stay at $1.

After the crash, UST was renamed USTC to distinguish it from any new stablecoin issued under the Terra 2.0 ecosystem.
• Algorithmic stablecoin from the old Terra system
• No longer stable or pegged to $1
• Still trades and is part of community-led revival ideas
⸻

3️⃣ Luna 2 (New LUNA)

Luna 2 is the new token launched after the collapse.
It belongs to the new Terra 2.0 blockchain, which was created to rebuild the ecosystem without the flaws of the old UST mechanism.
• Completely separate from the old chain
• No algorithmic stablecoin linked to it
• Designed as a “reset” for the Terra ecosystem
• Distributed to previous LUNA/UST holders through airdrop
⸻

🔍 In Summary
• LUNC + USTC = Old Terra ecosystem (collapsed but still active and supported by a strong community)
• LUNA 2 = New Terra ecosystem, created after the crash and not connected to USTC

$LUNA $LUNC $USTC

💡 Simplified Summary
Imagine Sui and Sei as two types of computers:

Sui is a General-Purpose Supercomputer:

It is built to handle everything incredibly fast, from high-graphics gaming to complex scientific calculations.

Sui uses an entirely new architecture (Objects Model + Move) to achieve near-limitless scalability.

Sei is a Specialized Trading Computer:

It is fine-tuned and optimized for one job only: running trading applications and exchanges.

Sei does not use an entirely new architecture, but focuses on making existing trading mechanisms (Orderbooks) run as fast and efficiently as possible.
$SUI $SEI

lunc say hi