Bitcoin Is Playing With Fire And Most People Arenโt Ready for What Comes Next
Bitcoin is bleeding again. Down 4% in just 24 hours. Nearly 10% wiped out in a month. And yet somehow, people are still arguing about โhealthy pullbacksโ and โbuy-the-dip opportunities.โ Really? $BTC
Hereโs the uncomfortable truth no one wants to say out loud: Bitcoin is sitting on a cliff edge, and if it slips before year-end, things can get ugly fast.
The One Level That Decides Everything
Bitcoin is hovering dangerously close to the 2-Year Simple Moving Average around $82,800. This isnโt some random line traders draw for fun. This is a cycle-defining level. Break it on a monthly close, and history shows Bitcoin doesnโt politely bounce. It falls apart.$BTC
People keep watching 5-minute candles like it matters. It doesnโt. What matters is the December monthly close. That candle locks in the verdict. No re-dos. No excuses.
Last time Bitcoin lost this level in 2022, it didnโt โshake out weak hands.โ It dumped another 51%. Thatโs the precedent. Ignore it if you want โ the market wonโt care.
Long-Term Holders Are Quietly Exiting
And hereโs where the denial really kicks in.
The so-called โstrong handsโ โ wallets holding BTC for over 155 days โ are selling. Not panicking. Not flipping. Distributing. Net outflows jumped from about 116,000 BTC to nearly 269,000 BTC in two weeks. Thatโs over 130% more selling pressure from the very group everyone pretends will โnever sell.โ
When long-term holders start reducing risk before a breakdown, thatโs not bullish. Thatโs a warning siren.
The Levels Everyone Will Pretend They Didnโt See
Lose the $82,800โ$81,100 zone on a monthly close, and the door swings open to $73,300. Thatโs a clean 15% drop โ and thatโs just the first stop.
Want relief? Bitcoin needs $88,200 just to stop the bleeding. Want to talk bullish again? Try reclaiming $94,500. Until then, every bounce is suspect and every โdip buyโ is a gamble.$BTC
$TRUTH did a clean 3x on the 10th, then weak hands panicked, price got nuked 50% in five days, and now what?
Selling pressure is dead. Gone. Finished.
Price has stopped bleeding, the 1H is ripping upward, and the daily is flashing an obvious breakout right in your face. This is literally the moment people regret later and ask, โWhy didnโt I buy when it was obvious?โ
The Russell 2000 just hit a new all-time high, and somehow people are still pretending this means nothing for Bitcoin. Unreal.
This index is a pure risk-on gauge. When small caps lead, money is chasing upside, not safety. And historically, thatโs when Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins wake up.
Weโve seen this before. Late 2020, Russell breaks out, BTC runs nearly 4x. Every prior Russell 2000 ATH? Bitcoin followed with its own breakout. ETH usually tags along, and then altcoins steal the show.
Now the bears are screaming about outflows and weak fundamentals. No surprise. Risk rotations always look ugly before liquidity fully spreads. If perfect fundamentals mattered, markets would never move.
Is it a guarantee? No. But brushing this off is classic cope.
Risk is back on the table. History is flashing. And the same crowd laughing now will chase later.
Robot flagged the short at 2,970 this morning and of course it happens while Iโm sleeping. Typical. Meanwhile everyone keeps screaming โbullish above 3,000โ like sell walls donโt exist. Last nightโs live was clear as day: above 3,000 is a trap, not a breakout. The robot literally shows heavy sell orders stacked overhead, so no, market makers arenโt letting you in nicely.
ETH still looks bearish, the larger market is weak, and weโre still hunting another short today while retail keeps buying the top and wondering why it dumps. Same movie, same ending. $BTC
Everyone keeps asking if $ASTER can โbottom out,โ so letโs stop pretending and say it plainly: this thing has been dumping since the moment it went live. Circulating market cap at 2.3B, fully diluted at 7.48B and people still asking โis this cheap?โ Cheap for who?
Letโs be real. If buying equals losing, then someone is definitely winning. So whoโs selling? Whoโs holding billions worth of tokens, and what did they actually pay for them? Zero? Close to zero? Because it sure isnโt retail making money here.
And this is exactly why I donโt touch projects that launch with obscene valuations. A shiny whitepaper doesnโt justify a 100+ billion RMB valuation. Even 50 billion fully diluted is already absurd. Are we seriously expected to believe the R&D costs were that high? Come on.
This isnโt innovation, itโs valuation inflation. Retail provides the exit liquidity, insiders walk away smiling, and people still wonder why price keeps bleeding. Ask better questions before asking where the bottom is.
yesterday price went more than 2x. after holding the highs for nearly 10 hours, it dumped this morning. a rebound kicked in around noon, and in just three hours it bounced 62%.
that rebound now looks done. the 1h chart is rolling over and momentum is fading.
this is the window to short while others are still celebrating the bounce.
The BTC Power Law Model, discovered by Giovanni Santostasi, shows the bottom price, below which it will not fall, and is calculated by a special formula
The bottom price has shown reliability, only failing once on March 13, 2020, during the pandemic crash when it briefly dropped below for a few hours.
So the bottom price is the most reliable level of the value $BTC