I mentioned yesterday that if Bitcoin accepts above $76.4k (Monday Low) then $77.5k will be hit and that is the exact move we are seeing play out. This is an interesting level, and I do expect resistance here around $77.5k as it is a previous 4hr S/R level. Any 4hr closed above $77.5k and we could see a quick move to attempt a weekly open reclaim at $78.6k.
If we see any move lower, we have fresh 4hr demand at $76.5k area. This is the same situation as earlier in the week, but the demand failed because of the bearish FOMC conference. Bulls will be looking for a more positive reaction on any retest today.
I mentioned on Tuesday that I expected a retest of $75k - $74k this week for Bitcoin if $76.4k (Monday Low) was lost. This is exactly the move that played out yesterday, with the news that there may be no Fed rate cuts this year. A good reaction so far from $74.8k and a reclaim of the Prev Month High at $75.9k is good news for bulls.
We are looking for BTC to reclaim $76.4k which is currently confirmed resistance with a rejection from that level this morning. Acceptance above $76.4k and $77.5k would be the next likely move.
Notice how after Bitcoin lost the 4hr support at $77.3k, this has become resistance with a bearish retest of that exact level. So far BTC is holding onto $76.4k (Monday Low) as 4hr support. If this level is lost I actually think we could see $75k - $74k this week. The bull case from here would be a reclaim of the resistance at $77.3k for a push back towards $78.5k. The Monday Range this week is $76.4k - $79.4k.
Bitcoin has rejected exactly from $79,450 (Prev Week High) this morning to test the demand in the $77.5k area. This also means that BTC has now closed the CME gap left behind from the weekend price action and this is holding for now. It would seem likely that any retest of $78.5k - $79k today would be met with resistance.
I am still watching for a break of the Previous Week High to look for a short term move back above $78k, but if this is to happen the demand at $77.5k - $77.3k must be respected. Let's see how the Monday range develops for now and look to have another strong week of trading!
After spending yesterday moving sideways all day, Bitcoin has broken above the $77.6k S/R level this morning. I expect this to continue as a key level today with 4hr demand created right below this. If $77.6k provides a bounce on a retest today, then I will be looking for a break of $78.3k for a move back to $80k+. Any 4hr close below $77.2k and I expect another retest of $76.5k - $76k at least. Keeping it simple in this tight range.