Whale_Insider
I'm Irfan. After years in the crypto trenches, I blog to share real insights—stripping away the hype to give you a clearer view of the market. Let’s navigate it
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🚨 SAUDI ARABIA JUST BECAME THE BIGGEST WAR PROFITEER IN HISTORY
Saudi Arabia is America's closest ally. And they are getting rich from a war America is fighting. Here is the proof.
💀 Saudi exports BEFORE the war: 6,660,000 barrels per day.
💀 Saudi exports NOW: 3,330,000 barrels per day.
💀 That is a 50% DROP.
💀 Oil price BEFORE the war: $67 per barrel.
💀 Oil price NOW: $130 per barrel.
💀 Saudi added $19.50 per barrel premium on Asian buyers.
💀 That is the HIGHEST premium in history.
⚠️ They are selling HALF the oil at DOUBLE the price with a RECORD fee on top.
⚠️ The math says they are making MORE money than before the war.
⚠️ The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in global oil market history.
⚠️ The supply loss is 10,000,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ fixed 206,000 of it. On purpose.
Let that sink in.
Now the part nobody will say out loud.
Saudi bypassed the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Their East-West pipeline now carries 7,000,000 barrels per day to the Red Sea.
Korean and Indian refiners are rerouting to Saudi's Yanbu port for the first time ever.
Saudi does not need Hormuz open. Saudi was NEVER going to suffer from Hormuz closing.
And Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are PRIVATELY urging Trump to keep fighting Iran. They want Iran weakened further before any ceasefire deal happens.
Because every week of war is another week of record oil prices. Every week of record prices is another week of record Saudi revenue.
If Saudi wanted Hormuz reopened, why did they spend billions on a pipeline to avoid it?
If Saudi was suffering, why are they charging the highest markup in history right now?
If Saudi is a loyal ally, why are they privately pushing for more bombing of a country America is already bombing?
Complete silence.
This is not an oil story. This is not a US-Iran story. This is a war profiteering story.
And the profiteer is the country hosting American military bases.
i lose followers every time i post the hard truth.. and i post it anyway.
$ENJ $AGT $ARIA
Saudi Arabia is America's closest ally. And they are getting rich from a war America is fighting. Here is the proof.
💀 Saudi exports BEFORE the war: 6,660,000 barrels per day.
💀 Saudi exports NOW: 3,330,000 barrels per day.
💀 That is a 50% DROP.
💀 Oil price BEFORE the war: $67 per barrel.
💀 Oil price NOW: $130 per barrel.
💀 Saudi added $19.50 per barrel premium on Asian buyers.
💀 That is the HIGHEST premium in history.
⚠️ They are selling HALF the oil at DOUBLE the price with a RECORD fee on top.
⚠️ The math says they are making MORE money than before the war.
⚠️ The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in global oil market history.
⚠️ The supply loss is 10,000,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ fixed 206,000 of it. On purpose.
Let that sink in.
Now the part nobody will say out loud.
Saudi bypassed the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Their East-West pipeline now carries 7,000,000 barrels per day to the Red Sea.
Korean and Indian refiners are rerouting to Saudi's Yanbu port for the first time ever.
Saudi does not need Hormuz open. Saudi was NEVER going to suffer from Hormuz closing.
And Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are PRIVATELY urging Trump to keep fighting Iran. They want Iran weakened further before any ceasefire deal happens.
Because every week of war is another week of record oil prices. Every week of record prices is another week of record Saudi revenue.
If Saudi wanted Hormuz reopened, why did they spend billions on a pipeline to avoid it?
If Saudi was suffering, why are they charging the highest markup in history right now?
If Saudi is a loyal ally, why are they privately pushing for more bombing of a country America is already bombing?
Complete silence.
This is not an oil story. This is not a US-Iran story. This is a war profiteering story.
And the profiteer is the country hosting American military bases.
i lose followers every time i post the hard truth.. and i post it anyway.
$ENJ $AGT $ARIA
PINNED
Highest Gold Production Countries 🪙
15. 🇹🇿 Tanzania — 60 t
15. 🇨🇴 Colombia — 60 t
15. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso — 60 t
13. 🇲🇱 Mali — 70 t
13. 🇧🇷 Brazil — 70 t
10. 🇿🇦 South Africa — 100 t
10. 🇵🇪 Peru — 100 t
10. 🇮🇩 Indonesia — 100 t
9. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan — 120 t
6. 🇲🇽 Mexico — 130 t
6. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan — 130 t
6. 🇬🇭 Ghana — 130 t
5. 🇺🇸 United States — 160 t
4. 🇨🇦 Canada — 200 t
3. 🇦🇺 Australia — 290 t
2. 🇷🇺 Russia — 310 t
1. 🇨🇳 China — 380 t
(Note: Data estimated for 2024; latest available in early 2026. Top 17 account for ~76% of global production. Remaining 780 t distributed among other countries, each with less than 60 t.)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
$CYS $SIREN $XAU
#GOLD
15. 🇹🇿 Tanzania — 60 t
15. 🇨🇴 Colombia — 60 t
15. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso — 60 t
13. 🇲🇱 Mali — 70 t
13. 🇧🇷 Brazil — 70 t
10. 🇿🇦 South Africa — 100 t
10. 🇵🇪 Peru — 100 t
10. 🇮🇩 Indonesia — 100 t
9. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan — 120 t
6. 🇲🇽 Mexico — 130 t
6. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan — 130 t
6. 🇬🇭 Ghana — 130 t
5. 🇺🇸 United States — 160 t
4. 🇨🇦 Canada — 200 t
3. 🇦🇺 Australia — 290 t
2. 🇷🇺 Russia — 310 t
1. 🇨🇳 China — 380 t
(Note: Data estimated for 2024; latest available in early 2026. Top 17 account for ~76% of global production. Remaining 780 t distributed among other countries, each with less than 60 t.)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
$CYS $SIREN $XAU
#GOLD
Only 2 Countries on Earth Can Survive a Full Nuclear War As per reports.
India, China, Russia, and US would all be destroyed, but only these two countries would survive.
🇦🇺Australia
🇳🇿New Zealand
Reasons Australia & New Zealand Would Survive Nuclear War.
1. Southern Hemisphere location (far from targets)
2. Ocean buffering (less extreme cooling)
3. Massive food surplus (can feed tens of millions extra)
4. Strong infrastructure
5. Energy self-sufficiency/surplus
6. High health security
7. Defence capability & lower targeting risk
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
India, China, Russia, and US would all be destroyed, but only these two countries would survive.
🇦🇺Australia
🇳🇿New Zealand
Reasons Australia & New Zealand Would Survive Nuclear War.
1. Southern Hemisphere location (far from targets)
2. Ocean buffering (less extreme cooling)
3. Massive food surplus (can feed tens of millions extra)
4. Strong infrastructure
5. Energy self-sufficiency/surplus
6. High health security
7. Defence capability & lower targeting risk
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
🚨BIG WARNING: $3.6 TRILLION GOLDMAN SACHS IS CALLING FOR A STOCK MARKET DUMP
Goldman Sachs warns that the flow engine behind the current rally is starting to slow now.
For the last few weeks, markets were supported by short covering, CTA trend-following funds buying aggressively, and investors chasing performance after being underexposed.
That helped push the S&P 500 higher very quickly.
Now that setup is changing.
Goldman says CTAs have already done most of their buying program after adding tens of billions this month.
That means one of the biggest automatic buyers in the market may no longer be there.
At the same time, hedge funds are reducing leverage and cutting gross exposure instead of adding fresh risk.
That is important because leverage helped drive a large part of the move higher.
Another issue is month-end pension rebalancing.
Goldman estimates roughly $25 billion of U.S. equities could be sold as pensions rebalance portfolios.
That would be the largest non-quarterly sell program on record.
This type of selling is mechanical.
It does not care about earnings, AI, rates, or headlines.
It simply hits the market.
There is also a warning under the surface.
Recent S&P 500 close showed hundreds of stocks closing lower even while the index rose.
That means gains are being carried by a small number of mega-cap names.
Goldman’s sentiment and positioning indicators are also moving into stretched territory.
That usually means the easy upside from under-positioning is already behind.
So what does this mean now?
It does not automatically mean a 50% crash will happen, but the market may enter a harder phase.
This means:
- Fewer natural buyers
- More forced or mechanical sellers
- Higher sensitivity to bad news
- Bigger swings and VIX spike
The first part of the rally was powered by flows.
The next part will need strong earnings, fast growth, and real buyers, and without them, the chances of a dump will go up substantially.
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
Goldman Sachs warns that the flow engine behind the current rally is starting to slow now.
For the last few weeks, markets were supported by short covering, CTA trend-following funds buying aggressively, and investors chasing performance after being underexposed.
That helped push the S&P 500 higher very quickly.
Now that setup is changing.
Goldman says CTAs have already done most of their buying program after adding tens of billions this month.
That means one of the biggest automatic buyers in the market may no longer be there.
At the same time, hedge funds are reducing leverage and cutting gross exposure instead of adding fresh risk.
That is important because leverage helped drive a large part of the move higher.
Another issue is month-end pension rebalancing.
Goldman estimates roughly $25 billion of U.S. equities could be sold as pensions rebalance portfolios.
That would be the largest non-quarterly sell program on record.
This type of selling is mechanical.
It does not care about earnings, AI, rates, or headlines.
It simply hits the market.
There is also a warning under the surface.
Recent S&P 500 close showed hundreds of stocks closing lower even while the index rose.
That means gains are being carried by a small number of mega-cap names.
Goldman’s sentiment and positioning indicators are also moving into stretched territory.
That usually means the easy upside from under-positioning is already behind.
So what does this mean now?
It does not automatically mean a 50% crash will happen, but the market may enter a harder phase.
This means:
- Fewer natural buyers
- More forced or mechanical sellers
- Higher sensitivity to bad news
- Bigger swings and VIX spike
The first part of the rally was powered by flows.
The next part will need strong earnings, fast growth, and real buyers, and without them, the chances of a dump will go up substantially.
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
🚨 The CLARITY Act just hit a WALL
Senate Democrats are now refusing to back the bill unless it includes strict ethics rules targeting the Trump family's $1B+ crypto empire.
Republicans need 7 Democratic votes to pass it.
With midterms looming, the entire U.S. crypto market structure hangs on this unresolved provision.
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
Senate Democrats are now refusing to back the bill unless it includes strict ethics rules targeting the Trump family's $1B+ crypto empire.
Republicans need 7 Democratic votes to pass it.
With midterms looming, the entire U.S. crypto market structure hangs on this unresolved provision.
$DAM $PRL $ZKJ
The man who predicted the 2008 crash is getting destroyed by Nvidia right now.
Michael Burry bought $187 million in Nvidia put options at a $110 strike price in Q3 2025 when the stock was around $130. Nvidia is now at $208, 90% above his strike price.
Those puts are effectively worthless unless Nvidia drops 47% before December 2027.
Nvidia has added $2.15 trillion in market cap since he placed this bet. He called it "the most concentrated way to express a bearish view on the AI trade" and compared Nvidia to Cisco before the dot-com collapse.
Cisco collapsed 90%. Nvidia just crossed $5 trillion and became the most valuable company on earth.
Burry shut down his hedge fund in November 2025.
He now runs a $39 per month Substack newsletter publishing his AI bubble thesis while Nvidia prints new all time highs every week.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
Michael Burry bought $187 million in Nvidia put options at a $110 strike price in Q3 2025 when the stock was around $130. Nvidia is now at $208, 90% above his strike price.
Those puts are effectively worthless unless Nvidia drops 47% before December 2027.
Nvidia has added $2.15 trillion in market cap since he placed this bet. He called it "the most concentrated way to express a bearish view on the AI trade" and compared Nvidia to Cisco before the dot-com collapse.
Cisco collapsed 90%. Nvidia just crossed $5 trillion and became the most valuable company on earth.
Burry shut down his hedge fund in November 2025.
He now runs a $39 per month Substack newsletter publishing his AI bubble thesis while Nvidia prints new all time highs every week.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
🚨 THIS IS INSANE.
The US government is accepting donations to pay off its $39 trillion debt.
If someone donated $1 million every single day it would take 106,849 years to pay it off.
Human civilization is only 5,000 years old.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
The US government is accepting donations to pay off its $39 trillion debt.
If someone donated $1 million every single day it would take 106,849 years to pay it off.
Human civilization is only 5,000 years old.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran has proposed to the US a new deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
The US outlet citing a US official and two sources, says Iran has proposed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while delaying nuclear talks for later stage.
But ending the blockade and war would take away Trump’s leverage to force Iran to give up its enriched uranium and stop nuclear activities
According to three US officials, Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Iran on Monday with his top national security and foreign policy team.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
The US outlet citing a US official and two sources, says Iran has proposed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, while delaying nuclear talks for later stage.
But ending the blockade and war would take away Trump’s leverage to force Iran to give up its enriched uranium and stop nuclear activities
According to three US officials, Trump is expected to hold a Situation Room meeting on Iran on Monday with his top national security and foreign policy team.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: Bitcoin just dumped -$1,400 in the past 60 MINUTES and dropped below $78,000.
Over $53 million in longs were liquidated.
This is a usual low liquidity weekend dump to hunt all the leveraged longs.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
Over $53 million in longs were liquidated.
This is a usual low liquidity weekend dump to hunt all the leveraged longs.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: Michael Saylor's Strategy bought another $255 million worth of Bitcoin last week at an average price of $77,906.
In the last 7 days approximately 3,150 BTC were mined globally. Saylor bought over 3,273 in the same period. One company is absorbing more than the entire weekly mining output.
Strategy now holds 818,334 BTC. That is 3.8% of Bitcoin's entire supply held by one company.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
In the last 7 days approximately 3,150 BTC were mined globally. Saylor bought over 3,273 in the same period. One company is absorbing more than the entire weekly mining output.
Strategy now holds 818,334 BTC. That is 3.8% of Bitcoin's entire supply held by one company.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: China’s largest private refiner, Hengli Petrochemical, fell 10% after the U.S. imposed sanctions over alleged purchases of Iranian oil.
The U.S. Treasury said the company is “one of Iran’s largest customers” for crude and petroleum products, accusing it of buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil.
Hengli Petrochemical denied any dealings with Iran.
China condemned the move as “illegal” unilateral sanctions and urged Washington to stop politicizing trade and technology issues and using them as a weapon.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
The U.S. Treasury said the company is “one of Iran’s largest customers” for crude and petroleum products, accusing it of buying billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil.
Hengli Petrochemical denied any dealings with Iran.
China condemned the move as “illegal” unilateral sanctions and urged Washington to stop politicizing trade and technology issues and using them as a weapon.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: The UK government just admitted it underestimated AI data center emissions by up to 136,000%.
Original estimate was 0.142 million metric tons of CO2 per year. The revised figure is 34 to 123 million metric tons over the next decade.
That is equivalent to the carbon emissions produced by 2.7 million people.
The government quietly deleted the old estimate and replaced it this week.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
Original estimate was 0.142 million metric tons of CO2 per year. The revised figure is 34 to 123 million metric tons over the next decade.
That is equivalent to the carbon emissions produced by 2.7 million people.
The government quietly deleted the old estimate and replaced it this week.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
BREAKING: $MSFT drops -5% as Microsoft & OpenAI restructure their landmark deal.
Key changes announced today:
- Microsoft's OpenAI license is now NON-EXCLUSIVE through 2032
- Microsoft will NO LONGER pay revenue share to OpenAI
- OpenAI is now free to license its tech to ANY partner
The AI monopoly era may be over.
$DAM $PRL $swarms
Key changes announced today:
- Microsoft's OpenAI license is now NON-EXCLUSIVE through 2032
- Microsoft will NO LONGER pay revenue share to OpenAI
- OpenAI is now free to license its tech to ANY partner
The AI monopoly era may be over.
$DAM $PRL $swarms
🚨⚠️ EL NIÑO ALERT: A MAJOR FOOD SHOCK MAY BE COMING
🇯🇵 Japan sees 70% chance of El Niño forming this summer
The strongest El Niño in a decade is building — and Asia is directly in the line of fire.
☀️ Hotter. Drier. Harsher.
By 2H2026, this could slam crop production across the region — at the worst possible time:
• Fertilizer already scarce
• Fuel prices elevated
• Supply chains fragile due to Iran tensions
🇨🇳 China: could last till year-end
🇮🇳 India: rising risk of FOOD INFLATION + rural distress
This isn’t just weather anymore.
This is how food crises begin.
Watch grains. Watch fertilizers. Watch inflation.
#ElNiño #India #FoodCrisis #Inflation #Agriculture #Commodities
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
🇯🇵 Japan sees 70% chance of El Niño forming this summer
The strongest El Niño in a decade is building — and Asia is directly in the line of fire.
☀️ Hotter. Drier. Harsher.
By 2H2026, this could slam crop production across the region — at the worst possible time:
• Fertilizer already scarce
• Fuel prices elevated
• Supply chains fragile due to Iran tensions
🇨🇳 China: could last till year-end
🇮🇳 India: rising risk of FOOD INFLATION + rural distress
This isn’t just weather anymore.
This is how food crises begin.
Watch grains. Watch fertilizers. Watch inflation.
#ElNiño #India #FoodCrisis #Inflation #Agriculture #Commodities
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
🚨🇪🇺BREAKING: The EU is about to grab users’ entire search histories in one of the biggest digital surveillance moves ever
Every query, photo search, click, scroll, and hover!
They’ll know your health issues, sexuality, politics, religion, and affairs.
Abolish the EU!
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
Every query, photo search, click, scroll, and hover!
They’ll know your health issues, sexuality, politics, religion, and affairs.
Abolish the EU!
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
⚡️JUST IN
Iran is set to begin repairs on the world’s largest gas field (South Pars), which was damaged during the war
The repair work will be carried out using domestic technology and could take a long time
In the meantime, gas prices will remain high and are not expected to drop even when winter begins
$DAM $PRL $swarms
Iran is set to begin repairs on the world’s largest gas field (South Pars), which was damaged during the war
The repair work will be carried out using domestic technology and could take a long time
In the meantime, gas prices will remain high and are not expected to drop even when winter begins
$DAM $PRL $swarms
U.S. Farm Bankruptcies Surge +46% as Fertilizer Costs Squeeze Farmers:
The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase.
The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump.
The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%.
Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country.
Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire.
Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne.
For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation.
Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss.
Farms are under pressure.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
The American Farm Bureau Federation reported 315 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings in 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and the third consecutive annual increase.
The Midwest got hit hardest with 121 filings, a +70% jump.
The Southeast followed with 105, up +69%.
Together, those two regions accounted for more than two-thirds of every farm bankruptcy in the country.
Fertilizer prices are pouring gasoline on the fire.
Urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on the planet, has ripped +87% year-to-date and trades near $720 a tonne.
For corn growers who depend on nitrogen, this is a dire situation.
Many farmers are reporting they will cut the amount of fertilizer they use, shift from corn toward less nitrogen-dependent soybeans, or just take the yield loss.
Farms are under pressure.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
🇵🇰Pakistan just made an emergency call
2 full months with zero LNG imports.
Then on a Friday, Islamabad asked @TotalEnergies for it.
The gas came from Sabine Pass, Louisiana🇺🇸
American gas, on a tanker now crossing the Indian Ocean, taking the long route around to avoid Hormuz entirely.(I deep dive this in my latest article link in the comments)
The country that spent years carefully balancing between Washington, Beijing, and Riyadh just called America when the lights were about to go out because there was nobody else.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
2 full months with zero LNG imports.
Then on a Friday, Islamabad asked @TotalEnergies for it.
The gas came from Sabine Pass, Louisiana🇺🇸
American gas, on a tanker now crossing the Indian Ocean, taking the long route around to avoid Hormuz entirely.(I deep dive this in my latest article link in the comments)
The country that spent years carefully balancing between Washington, Beijing, and Riyadh just called America when the lights were about to go out because there was nobody else.
$DAM $PRL $SWARMS
Breakingnews:
Emir of Sharjah His Highness Sheikh Dr. Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi is expected to announce REPUBLIC OF SHARJAH and breaking away from UAE 🇦🇪
The Republic of Sharjah isn’t just a headline… it’s a warning that the region is entering a new era.
Watch closely.
$BSB $AIN $LDO
Emir of Sharjah His Highness Sheikh Dr. Sultan bin Muhammad Al Qasimi is expected to announce REPUBLIC OF SHARJAH and breaking away from UAE 🇦🇪
The Republic of Sharjah isn’t just a headline… it’s a warning that the region is entering a new era.
Watch closely.
$BSB $AIN $LDO
🛢️ Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves
But It produces 1/3 of what it did in 2010
Chevron's CEO just said fixing that will take years.
Everyone hoping Venezuela rescues the Hormuz supply gap is looking at the wrong timeline.
What Chevron is actually doing
→ Only major US IOC still operating in Venezuela at scale
→ Stake in Petroindependencia JV raised +13.21 points → 49%
→ Petropiar JV expanded into Orinoco Belt's Ayacucho-8 block
→ Current production: 260,000 b/d roughly 25% of Venezuela's total
→ Wirth's upside case: +50% output in 18–24 months if conditions hold
Chevron is already moving The question now is speed.
Caracas loosened the hydrocarbon law.
PDVSA's mandatory grip reduced.
Foreign partners get more autonomy.
Wirth (Chevron's CEO) calls it "a sign of progress"
⚠️Then immediately lists what's still missing:
→ Contract and fiscal stability
→ Profit repatriation guarantees
→ Operational control in JVs
→ Arbitration protection against political reversals
→ Reliable power, pipelines, ports, security in the Orinoco Belt
→ US sanctions framework that doesn't snap back
One century of Chevron presence in Venezuela.
Still not enough certainty to write the big cheque.
🇻🇪 Venezuela peaked at >2 mb/d in the early 2010s, today roughly 700k b/d.
The gap: 1.3+ mb/d of stranded potential.
Chevron and a few returning Europeans could add a few hundred thousand b/d over several years.
But it doesn't solve a 20% Hormuz disruption tomorrow.
Don't forget to subscribe to my newsletter, my latest article is in the below comments👇
open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…
$BSB $AIN $LDO
But It produces 1/3 of what it did in 2010
Chevron's CEO just said fixing that will take years.
Everyone hoping Venezuela rescues the Hormuz supply gap is looking at the wrong timeline.
What Chevron is actually doing
→ Only major US IOC still operating in Venezuela at scale
→ Stake in Petroindependencia JV raised +13.21 points → 49%
→ Petropiar JV expanded into Orinoco Belt's Ayacucho-8 block
→ Current production: 260,000 b/d roughly 25% of Venezuela's total
→ Wirth's upside case: +50% output in 18–24 months if conditions hold
Chevron is already moving The question now is speed.
Caracas loosened the hydrocarbon law.
PDVSA's mandatory grip reduced.
Foreign partners get more autonomy.
Wirth (Chevron's CEO) calls it "a sign of progress"
⚠️Then immediately lists what's still missing:
→ Contract and fiscal stability
→ Profit repatriation guarantees
→ Operational control in JVs
→ Arbitration protection against political reversals
→ Reliable power, pipelines, ports, security in the Orinoco Belt
→ US sanctions framework that doesn't snap back
One century of Chevron presence in Venezuela.
Still not enough certainty to write the big cheque.
🇻🇪 Venezuela peaked at >2 mb/d in the early 2010s, today roughly 700k b/d.
The gap: 1.3+ mb/d of stranded potential.
Chevron and a few returning Europeans could add a few hundred thousand b/d over several years.
But it doesn't solve a 20% Hormuz disruption tomorrow.
Don't forget to subscribe to my newsletter, my latest article is in the below comments👇
open.substack.com/pub/themerchan…
$BSB $AIN $LDO
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