懂币猫

#美股 #BTC

In the last two months, I’ve barely made any gains from crypto contracts
But I'm still sitting at the top of the annual profit leaderboard
What does that indicate?

It’s pretty straightforward; it shows that making money in crypto is tough right now
Other crypto traders aren’t raking it in either, or else I wouldn't still be in first place

For half a year, I've been urging everyone in my streams to trade U.S. stocks
I spend almost half of each stream discussing U.S. stocks, gold, and silver
When I first started streaming, I even shared my returns from U.S. stocks, and they were on par with my crypto performance

Through my streams and trading teachings, I’ve always hoped everyone could earn more and walk the right trading path with solid trading principles. Recently, I’ve noticed there are hardly any discussions about U.S. stocks in the plaza; such a great market is getting little attention, and it honestly feels disheartening

As traders, when the conditions are right, we must avoid being dogmatic and be more adaptable
I often say that traders should be like water: flexible and variable, not like an old pigeon
At the same time, we need to learn to allocate our funds wisely, pursuing the easier profits in more active markets

Here's how I allocate my positions and time:
Crypto 40%
U.S. Stocks 40%
A-shares 5%
Gold 5%
Some treasure fund 4% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Wealth management 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)
Others 3% (barely takes time, buy and forget)

Now, all major platforms have U.S. stock contracts available, just fire up your exchange app
Head into the contract section
In the dropdown menu, find #TradFi , which is filled with recently popular U.S. stock contracts

Brothers, explore more and don’t let yourselves get trapped in an information cocoon

Back on top of the annual leaderboard

#美股

In early June, on Wednesday night when the CPI was released, it was the lowest point for the entire month of June

At the time, I went bargain-hunting on strong stocks:
SNDK
LRCX
AMAT
INTC
ASML

Aside from ASML lagging a bit, the average gain was 30%+.
In recent days, the live stream host has been sighing—actually holding on is truly a kind of mysticism. The more a stock shoots up, the harder it is to hold. The more a stock you’re stuck in, the longer you end up holding it.

The four most expensive words in the stock market have always been:

"I could have"
"Sorry—back then, I really didn’t know how to love you"

#美股

The turbulent month of June is almost over. QQQ in June is no longer possible to fall lower than when we entered at the beginning of the month. The volatility throughout June became extremely large. Especially our main line—storage—it’s become commonplace to swing back and forth by a dozen points or more in a single day. Although the strong stocks we positioned for this month, on average, still rose 20%+ despite the index’s downward trend, many people may not have captured these gains. I have a rough idea why.

When we predicted the June outlook, we said June’s market should be a choppy pullback: big dips followed by aggressive buying, and small dips followed by buying as well. After the consolidation and pullback, we would keep looking favorably toward July. Now July is here. Everyone should know what to do. Money-making advice: use strategies more to protect your position size.

July is a month we liked after experiencing the June consolidation. Recently, many friends have joined our CoinCat Trading Academy. We found that a lot of people aren’t very familiar with the U.S. stock market, so there are a few principles you need to follow:

1. The U.S. stock market can be very profitable, but don’t be in a rush. Investing is a game of time; the U.S. market is suitable for extending your time horizon.
2. The U.S. market is especially suitable for large capital, but individual stocks also have especially large volatility, so it isn’t suitable for high leverage.
3. For beginners: start by getting familiar with the U.S. market using the index, such as QQQ, SPY. At first, don’t trade leveraged ETFs like TQQQ or SOXL. Even popular stocks should only be used with small position sizes to get a feel.
4. Set aside time to learn our trend strategy and long/short breakout strategy as soon as possible. At minimum, replay and review the last two years of market action using the strategies—4-hour, 2-hour, and daily timeframes all work.
5. If you don’t have enough time, just invest in index funds and ETFs, and also consider a few hot stocks along the main theme.
6. When you’re just starting, focus mainly on spot positions, strictly control leverage. Especially for individual stocks, total leverage ideally should not exceed 3x. QQQ index leverage can be a bit higher, but still keep it within 10x.
7. Consistent investing using a certain method (DCA) is an efficient investment approach that almost ordinary people can use to make money with a very high probability. Put U.S. index DCA into our “retirement plan.” Decades later, it will be much more than our pension.
8. Position control is the top priority. Don’t go all-in and bet everything on a single stock, no matter how much you believe in it. This approach can lead to wealth overnight—or also catastrophic losses. Make sure we always stay seated at the table.

Hope everyone makes more money along the trading journey, learns real skills, and achieves financial freedom as soon as possible ❤️

#美股

Pulled some data and tracked US stock performance around Independence Day, with an over 90% probability of gains.

This coming Friday, US markets will be closed. Around Independence Day, the Nasdaq overall has shown a very consistent pattern. Over the 15 years from 2011 to 2025: on the trading day before the holiday, it was basically a steady uptrend—up in 14 out of 15 times. On the last trading day before Independence Day, it also rose 13 times.

During US holidays, liquidity thins out. Bears are less willing to force a heavy sell, and institutions also tend to make the books look a bit better. Plus, tech stocks with higher weights are easier for funds to nudge upward as they move.

My thinking is simple:
The one-month pullback from June volatility has ended, and in July the index will resume its upward move.

#存储 #海力士 #三星

The South Korean government is leading the charge and betting the country’s fortunes on it. Samsung and SK hynix will together invest more than $1 trillion, and in 2025 alone, South Korea’s total GDP will be $1.87 trillion.

Over the next decade, South Korea will continue to heavily allocate to semiconductors and memory.

So you see how SK hynix and Samsung are going to operate, right?

#美股周度前瞻 #美股

This week’s core for US stocks is “Employment Data Week” and “US Independence Day (250th anniversary)”.

Monday: First, look at the follow-through after last week’s pullback.
There is no major macro data on Monday, so focus is on the market’s own ability to repair.
Last week both Nasdaq and the S&P 500 fell noticeably, and there are signs of cooling in tech stocks, AI, and semiconductors.
MU’s earnings were strong, but whether it can continue to drive the expansion across the memory supply chain still needs confirmation from this week’s market action.

Tuesday: JOLTS + Consumer Confidence—first, see whether employment and consumption are loosening.
Tuesday is the first batch of key macro data this week.
Beijing time: 22:00—Consumer Confidence Index, JOLTS job openings.
Before the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the market will use JOLTS to gauge whether the labor market has truly cooled.
Another factor to watch is consumer confidence.
On Tuesday evening, there’s also NKE earnings.
For NKE, the focus is on global consumption, athletic apparel inventory, the DTC channel, and demand in China.
This is not a tech-led theme, but it can help the market judge whether US and global consumption has actually weakened.

Wednesday: ADP + ISM Manufacturing—this is a preview ahead of NFP.
Beijing time:
20:15—ADP employment
21:30—Remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh
22:00—ISM Manufacturing PMI
The most critical thing on Wednesday is twofold: ADP for employment expectations, and ISM for manufacturing activity and price pressure.
You’ll also need to watch Kevin Warsh’s remarks on Wednesday.

Thursday: This week’s core—Nonfarm Payrolls released early.
Thursday is the most important day this week because US markets are closed on Friday, so the June NFP will be released early on Thursday.
Beijing time 20:30—Nonfarm employment, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, initial jobless claims. This set of data will directly determine the market’s risk appetite for the latter half of Thursday.

Also, US stocks will close early on Thursday.
The US stock market closes at 13:00 ET, which is around 01:00 Beijing time on Friday for the end of regular trading.
This means after the data is released, the market has less time to react, and liquidity may be thinner.
If intraday volatility amplifies, don’t interpret it using liquidity conditions typical of a normal trading day.

#小米 #海力士

In the chart below, the K-line chart is for Xiaomi.

The blue line is for Hynix.

As for 100x stocks and 1000x stocks, ordinary people find it very difficult to pick them. If we don’t consider the environment and don’t consider whatever K-line pattern, and we just hold on stubbornly, the probability of a 50% drop is also very high—especially for many “old guys” who are full of faith in the stock: once they enter at a high point, they may never be able to get their money back for the rest of their lives.

When trading, we’re not placing our faith in the stock we hold. Instead, no matter how the trend moves, I have a response method tailored to that trend.

In a bull market, you believe that there will always be someone more optimistic who will take over the high-priced stock at an even higher price. This is the fundamental reason you lose big money in a bull market.

South Korea Stock Market Circuit Breaker #KOSPI

One core feature of South Korean society is fierce competition and extremely low social mobility

If ordinary people in South Korea don't gamble, they have no way out; even though gambling may still leave them with no way out, they still have a slim chance of hope

#美股复盘
2026/6/26

A minor rebound in the index, but the real market is only in storage; other AI semiconductor chains are following poorly

Today, the U.S. stock market repaired on the surface: SPY rose 0.14% to close at 734.30, QQQ rose 0.81%, and IWM rose 0.75%

The semiconductor ETF rebounded more noticeably: SOXX rose 3.94%. But today, there was only one true main theme—storage.
MU rose 15.74%, with volume higher than the 20-day average by 46.42%; SNDK rose 21.97%, with volume higher than the 20-day average by 35.62%
These two stocks directly lifted the semiconductor ETF. So today’s SOXX rise shouldn’t be simply interpreted as a broad-based recovery in semiconductors. It was a strong reversal/upswing in the storage line that drove the chip ETF to repair.
Because within semiconductors, the divergence is actually severe: NVDA fell 1.64%, AVGO fell 0.83%, DELL fell 5.67%, HPE fell 4.16%. Even though MRVL rose 1.65%, its volume was still below the 20-day average by 46.53%. In other words, AI core chips, server hardware, and AI infrastructure were not simultaneously strengthening—what’s truly strong is only MU and SNDK.

But note that today’s rally is extremely aggressive. MU and SNDK both surged by double digits, and it was a high-volume rebound. That indicates strong buying pressure, but it also suggests very high volatility.

Software remains weak: IGV fell 1.64%
CRM fell 1.68%, NOW fell 4.56%, SNOW rose slightly by 0.49%. Previously, we observed some capital backing for software, but today it didn’t continue. This suggests that capital has not truly shifted from AI hardware to the AI application layer; software is still the weak direction.

M7 is also very poor
MSFT fell 3.46%, AMZN fell 3.10%, META fell 2.65%, and GOOG fell 0.83%.
Among them, both MSFT and AMZN saw trading volumes clearly above the 20-day average.
This implies large tech still has real sell pressure. The high-profit storage theme means a larger capital expenditure for large tech as compared to storage.

At the sector level, today also isn’t a typical tech-led market.
Among 11 major sectors: Industrials XLI rose 2.17%, Healthcare XLV rose 1.49%, Materials XLB rose 1.33%, Energy XLE rose 0.97%, Technology XLK rose 0.83%—which ranked fifth. Consumer Discretionary XLY fell 1.49%, and Communication Services XLC fell 0.90%

This means the market rebound looks superficial, but what’s truly strong is Industrials, Healthcare, and Materials. Within tech, it’s only propped up by storage.

Macro picture
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.392%, lower than a few days ago.
The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly to 101.459.
WTI crude oil rebounded modestly by 1.75%.
Gold rose 1.09%.
VIX edged up to 18.89.

Keep an eye out: the index is still expected to face pullback

#CBRS

Yesterday took a massive dip -19%, felt great!
Brothers who bought at the peak should now be looking at profits like CBRS's margins—only 37% left.

#BTC

I've been telling folks for the past few months that the crypto market is trash, not to flex on how smart I am, but to help those who trust me lose a bit less.

The market doesn't care if you've lost a lot; it just crushes those who won't throw in the towel.

If you missed the boat on storage, missed on Micron and Hynix, don't blame the market, and don't come at me. I think you need to reflect on one thing:
Why are you always 'gloomy when it dips, and optimistic when it pumps'?

Yesterday, Hynix dropped 12%, and you shorted it to hell; today it rebounds, and suddenly you think the bull market is back. What's the difference between you and a bull teased by a red cloth?

I won't change my outlook just because of a big green candle, just like I won't deny logic because of a big red candle.
If you ask me what today's surge means?
My answer is: it means nothing.
It simply validates the core message from yesterday's article—
As long as the AI narrative isn't disproven, every big fluctuation is the market cleaning out the weak hands.

Yesterday, it cleaned out the FOMO traders, those leveraging up without patience.
Today, the market is clearing out another type—those who panic and run at the first sign of profit or jump around when they slightly miss out.

Hynix is set to hit the US stock market in July, with a subscription date on July 14 and the new stock listing set for July 29. Meanwhile, DRAM is about to launch a 2x leverage product RAM. Once Hynix goes live on the US markets, with that liquidity, we could see another massive pump.

#美光

Micron's earnings report is a clear signal of what printing money feels like.

This quarter's revenue hit $41.5 billion, smashing the market's top expectation of $38 billion.
The key takeaway isn’t just the revenue beating forecasts, but the gross margin at 84.9%.

Do you know what an 84.9% gross margin means? Even the leader Nvidia is only at 75%.
Plus, the whole market is experiencing shortages, customers are lining up to throw cash, and Micron is calling all the shots on pricing.

A few days ago, they hinted at increasing DRAM capacity after HBM profits fell short of expectations.

What’s the move here? It’s a wake-up call for Huang; if you don’t raise prices, Cook is still waiting in line.

Previously, people said storage was a cyclical stock, with price hikes followed by drops, earning a few years and losing a few years.

Now, Micron’s data centers, cloud storage, mobile clients, and automotive embeds are all exceeding expectations; it’s not just one segment exploding but a total breakout. This is what we call a massive win.

Even crazier, next quarter’s gross margin is set to keep climbing, and the revenue guidance is far beyond market expectations.

This indicates that demand and price hikes show no signs of slowing down; AI demand isn’t just PPT hype, it’s genuinely blowing up Micron’s profit margins.

Just days ago, when a bunch of folks saw Korea’s market circuit breakers, SK Hynix tanking, and Nasdaq futures dropping, they started shouting about a storage crash.

I’ve been saying, storage is a key player in the AI narrative; it’s not going to collapse after just one or two bad days.

If this earnings report is considered an AI bubble, then I can only say this bubble is just too profitable.

Every round of tech revolution reshuffles the wealth

The oil era 120 years ago created a ton of riches

The PC era 30 years back did the same

The AI era won't be any different

But the AI in the crypto space is trash, the garbage of garbage