Emily Vuong

Long-term holders $BTC C continue to distribute and are intensifying sales with a stable supply flowing into the market.

🔸Market reaction: The labor market is weak but not to the extent that the #Fed must urgently cut interest rates.
-> The rate cut for January is still below 25%. #USJob #USNonFarmPayrollReport

📍 The number of Americans needing to work more than one job has reached a historic high

📌 The actual unemployment rate is 4.564% (higher than the forecast of 4.40%, up from last month’s 4.44%, and the highest since 09/2021.
The direct cause is government jobs being affected in October.
📌 Sahm Rule has risen to 0.43 (close to 0.5)
The Sahm Rule has not yet indicated a recession, but it has entered a territory where history rarely turns back.
Powell once said that an increase in unemployment of ~0.2% from a base of 4.4% would trigger strong recession risks.
-> The FED cannot pretend not to see.
📌 The labor force participation rate has increased to 62.5%. The labor structure has evidently worsened:
- Native labor increased by +114K, a sharp decrease from +676K in September.
- Immigrant labor decreased by -58K.
-> Trump’s immigration policy has significantly reduced immigrant labor.
📌 Multiple jobholders are booming.
- In just 2 months: +500K people have to work more than one job.
- Total: 9.301 million people - the highest in history.
-> Americans are having to do more jobs (mostly part-time due to the massive layoff wave).
📌 Long-term unemployment (>6 months) has risen to 24.3%.
🔸The shock from government job cuts has nearly fully reflected. The ball is now in the private sector's court. If the private sector cannot absorb the new labor force, the Fed will have to be more cautious about the interest rate pace next year.

📍 The US NFP for November is quite bad
🔸November payrolls increased by +64K, higher than the forecast of +50K.
🔸The adjusted figures are causing unease in the market:
- October adjusted down by -105K.
- September was also lowered from +119K to +108K.
-> This means actual job growth is much weaker than the headline.
🔸The reason comes from government jobs
- October: -157K government jobs.
- November continues with -5K.
-> Federal jobs have fallen to their lowest level since 2014.
🔸The private sector has shown improvement, but not significant
- Private payrolls rebounded during the October-November period, and if viewed broadly from August to November, they remain the main support.
-> The private sector is only taking on the jobs withdrawn from the public sector (those leaving government will move to private work), not creating new hiring volumes.
🔸The job structure has also deteriorated significantly
- Full-time jobs decreased sharply by -983K (the lowest for the entire year of 2025).
- Part-time jobs increased by +1,025K
- Hours worked slightly nudged up from 34.2 to 34.3.
-> Companies are shifting to part-time hiring instead of full-time, Americans are having to work overtime.
It's not too surprising, given Powell's optimism since late 2024 until he had to admit that the labor market is "very concerning" in the recent FOMC, which also indicates that the labor market is unlikely to sustain, let alone strongly increase, in the coming month.

📍 RedotPay raises $107M Series B to expand stablecoin payment infrastructure

RedotPay completes Series B $107M, led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera, Blockchain Capital, Circle Ventures. This funding does not go into the narrative. It goes into the actual running payment infrastructure.

📌 Over 6 million users, present in 100+ markets, $10B+ volume/year, revenue >$150M. The problem is no longer product-market fit, but rather expanding the rails.

📌 RedotPay focuses on cross-border payments, stablecoin spending cards, international payment rails with predictable costs. Stablecoins are used to shorten settlement times and compress intermediaries.

📌 RedotPay is stepping out of the shadow of crypto-native payments, entering the mainstream fintech payment space – where speed, reliability, and network are more important than tokenomics.

📍 PancakeSwap launches the Probable prediction market on BNB Chain
PancakeSwap introduces Probable – an on-chain prediction market running on BNB Chain, incubated with YZi Labs. The product operates independently of DEX, not as a supplementary module.
📌 Zero-fee initial phase, maximizing friction reduction and UMA Optimistic Oracle
- Users can deposit any token, and the system automatically converts it to USDT to participate. No manual swapping is required. The clear goal: to drive volume and behavior first.
- Settlement is based on an oracle, minimizing disputes and manipulation. This is a mandatory infrastructure layer if we want to scale the prediction market significantly.
📌 PancakeSwap steps out of the shadow of being just an AMM Dex
AMM has become saturated. The prediction market adds liquidity linked to information and probabilities, keeping users within the ecosystem rather than flowing to Polymarket/Kalshi.
📌 BNB Chain is the institutional choice
Prediction markets will inevitably face legal challenges. Operating within Binance's sphere of influence helps mitigate risks and optimize user distribution. Moreover, this is a step to expand PancakeSwap's financial surface area in a phase where AMM is no longer the main growth story. $CAKE

📍 SEC closes investigation into Aave after 4 years. No ruling. No enforcement.

The SEC has officially closed its investigation into Aave, which lasted nearly 4 years, without taking any enforcement action.

No penalties. No agreements. No conclusion that Aave is a security.

📌 This is an important signal for DeFi lending as Aave is the core lending protocol of DeFi. If the SEC does not dare to take action against Aave, the legal risk ceiling for the major lending protocol group is significantly lowered.

📌 The implicit message from Washington: It's easier to target CEX, brokers, and stablecoins.
Pure code DeFi, no intermediaries, no custodians -> difficult to target, labor-intensive, risk of losing lawsuits.

$AAVE

📍 Bhutan uses 10,000 BTC to build a new administrative special zone.

Bhutan introduces 10,000 BTC into the development strategy of Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) – an administrative – economic special zone with legal and financial autonomy.

📌 Bitcoin is considered a national reserve.
This amount of BTC comes from hydropower mining, which has low costs and is controlled by the state.
Not sold on the market, not dependent on USD inflow.

📌 GMC is an institutional sandbox.
Goal: attract fintech, blockchain, green technology, luxury tourism.
Bitcoin plays the role of a foundational asset that creates trust for the special zone.

📌 BTC is listed on the national balance sheet.
Participating in treasury management, preserving long-term value, funding infrastructure and employment.
From speculative assets -> national strategic assets.
$BTC

📍 YouTube starts paying creators with stablecoin
📌 YouTube begins to enter the crypto story in a very safe way: Using PayPal as an intermediary, using PYUSD as a new payment layer for creators in the US. Technically, this is just an additional payout option. But structurally, this is a significant shift.
📌 YouTube does not change its business model, but changes the monetary infrastructure behind it.
Creators still earn money from ads, memberships, and content. But money no longer has to go through banks. It can go directly into a form of on-chain USD.
📌 PayPal is stepping into the role of the "new intermediary bank."
PYUSD is backed by deposits and US T-bills. This means: each PYUSD is a piece of indirect demand for US public debt. Stablecoin is no longer a crypto toy - it has become a distribution channel for USD at the global retail level.
📌 Creators benefit from speed and control over their money.
No waiting for bank settlements. Not dependent on working hours. Holding PYUSD, transferring, converting, or putting on-chain is their right. Income is starting to become "programmable".

#Fed just injected an additional $6.8B in liquidity today

Binance is currently the largest Bitcoin liquidity center. User behavior and whales here often have a strong impact on short-term price volatility. Just look at the order book, bid/ask of $BTC on #Binance is enough.

Bitcoin is hovering right above the 2Y SMA ~ $82,800.

It is important to note the price history; each time $BTC closes a monthly candle below the 2Y SMA, the bear market will last at least 1 year afterwards.

The 2Y SMA seems to be the most accurate measure of cycle durability in recent seasons.

Perhaps what the market needs is not a V-shaped reversal pump, but for #BTC to close December above $82,800. $BTC
#month

📍Ba biểu đồ – một trạng thái: thị trường không đặt cược

Fed nói 2026 chỉ 1 lần cắt. Nhưng thị trường pricing rất khác.

Theo Wintermute, từ Mar–Jun 2026, xác suất Fed funds 325–350bps luôn >57–80%, và sang 2027, vùng 300–325bps được pricing ~85–98%. Tức là thị trường vẫn ngầm tin Fed sẽ phải nới thêm, bất chấp dot plot. Đây là khe nứt chính sách – mảnh đất của volatility.

Cross-asset tuần 50 càng xác nhận trạng thái đó.

Không tài sản nào giữ ngôi đầu quá 1–2 tuần. Bitcoin +5.3% có tuần dẫn đầu, nhưng ngay sau đó Altcoins, Gold, Russell 2k lần lượt chiếm top. AI/Tech (Nasdaq) không còn thống trị. Đây không phải risk-on, mà là rotation cuối chu kỳ.

Flow BTC cho thấy nguyên nhân trực tiếp.

Từ đầu tháng 12, US flow đã flip sang net selling, trong khi EU flow trung tính–dương. BTC trượt từ vùng ~92k xuống 86.5k không phải vì panic toàn cầu, mà vì nhà đầu tư Mỹ chủ động hạ risk cuối năm. Không có forced selling, chỉ là làm sạch vị thế. $BTC
$ETH
#eth #USChinaDeal

Currently, the neo USD stablecoin has reached a market capitalization of around $230–250B, but each year it handles trillions of USD in on-chain transactions. This means the scale of money flow through stablecoins far exceeds what the market capitalization suggests. This is the basis for the market forecast that it could expand to ~$2T in the coming years, if the infrastructure and legal framework are perfected.
The crux of the article does not lie in "growth," but in the conditions for growth to occur. When stablecoins are used for enterprise payments, cross-border transactions, fintech, the requirements are no longer speed or low fees, but:
- 1:1 backing with USD or T-bills, transparency.
- Custody, wallets, and payment rails that meet standards for real organizational use.
- Smooth connectivity for banks and fiat on/off-ramps.
- Compliance integrated from the design stage.
-> A $2T scale stablecoin will not operate like crypto-native ones did before.

Asset managers are long on US equities at extreme levels. Net long positioning on S&P 500 futures has risen to 49%, close to the all-time highs. Since 2022, Net exposure (long minus short) has increased by more than +400%. Compared to the long-term average of 26%, the current position is nearly double. Net long Nasdaq 100 is also at the highest level in a decade.

Not because of cheap valuations, nor because the risks have disappeared. But because no one dares to stand outside a market that is continuously breaking records.

The S&P 500 has recorded 37 all-time highs just this year. This ranks third since 2020, after 57 peaks last year and 70 peaks in 2021. Risk appetite is not only strong but is becoming institutional.

When asset managers pull net long to record levels while real yields remain high, it does not imply that money is cheap. It indicates that confidence in the Fed's ability to manage risks has extended the duration of positions. People are willing to hold risks longer, believing that any shock, if it occurs, will be managed.

Asset management funds chase benchmarks and relative performance. When indices continuously hit peaks, staying out means incurring too great an opportunity cost. Therefore, they are forced to go long.

$BTC

🚨The Fed just injected $5.2B in liquidity through overnight repo

📌This is the 6th largest liquidity injection since COVID, surpassing even the peak of the Dot-com Bubble. Overnight repo = a short-term safe haven of the system shows liquidity stress at the funding level and a sudden surge in short-term USD demand.

📌The Fed doesn't call this QE, but money is still money. And having to inject such a large Overnight repo indicates that market liquidity is not as abundant as the Fed claims.

📍PYTH activates buyback – 33% treasury buys PYTH every month

🔸 Pyth Network implements PYTH Reserve – a mechanism for monthly buybacks, using 33% of the DAO treasury to make direct purchases on the market.

🔸 On-chain buyback, transparent, no OTC, no backroom deals -> real, consistent, and predictable buying power.

🔸 PYTH after purchase is not dumped back onto the market, but held in reserve -> aiming for long-term value accumulation, not short-term pumping.

🔸 The fixed percentage mechanism eliminates the need for monthly voting, reduces governance friction, and increases financial discipline.

🔸 The buyback funds come from the actual revenue of the network, particularly Pyth Pro – a product that has started generating ARR early on.

🔸 The current buyback scale is still small but increases with revenue -> this is the “earn -> buy -> hold” model, not a token burning scheme.

🔸 Essentially, Pyth is linking the PYTH token with cash flow, bringing tokenomics closer to an equity-like model in crypto.

$PYTH

📍1 notable week ahead: The US jobs report and CPI will be released

📌The market is awaiting the jobs report and CPI for November in the US - perhaps also the last two pieces to close out the year 2025 before the Fed makes decisions at the beginning of the new year. The jobs report will include part of October due to the US government shutdown.

📌Current market expectations are not high with economic data:
- NFP is forecasted to increase by only about +30K to +50K, significantly lower than the average of previous months.
- Unemployment rate around 4.3% (still high).
- Wage growth remains, not enough to create inflationary pressure.

📌For CPI, forecasts lean towards the scenario:
- Headline CPI slightly increases MoM.
- Core CPI continues to decrease slowly both MoM and YoY.

->This week's data will guide expectations for January 2026 on whether the disinflation trend is truly sustainable. US bonds clearly reflect this tug-of-war.

$BTC

🟠 Ondo – looking back over the last 6 months through data, not narrative
🔸 RWA has become cash flow, no longer just a theoretical technology
- Total on-chain RWA exceeds ~$18B, increased more than 10x compared to early 2023
- Tokenized Treasuries account for nearly 50% of the entire RWA market
- This is Ondo's home ground, directly benefiting from high interest rates and capital parking demand
🔸 OUSG – steady growth
- OUSG from ~$400M end of 2024 -> exceeds ~$750M TVL
- ~+187% YoY, no incentives, no farming
- TVL increases steadily, no spikes followed by sell-offs -> truly large cash flow
🔸 USDY – used by retail, but not retail money
- USDY TVL from ~$30M -> ~$700M
- Redemption volume ~$300M+
- Redemption fee 0.2% -> >$600K actual revenue, not counting interest rate spread
=> Ondo has real revenue, not relying on token price
🔸 SEC closes investigation – removes the biggest overhang
- Nearly 2-year investigation has concluded, no charges
- Regulatory risk in the US significantly reduced
- Opens the door for scaling RWA products
🔸 Ondo Nexus – aiming to become the infrastructure layer for issuers (RWA issuers).
- Launched in early 2025, Ondo Nexus allows third-party issuers to issue RWA on Ondo's infrastructure
- This is a shift from product -> infrastructure
🟠 In the past 6 months, Ondo: TVL increased - revenue appeared - legal risks reduced - infrastructure expanded. Ondo continues to build even when the market is unfavorable.
$ONDO
#ondo