币掌柜的加密日记

Don't be fooled by the 'Christmas market': A survival guide under low liquidity.

It's not recommended to trade frequently during the holidays, the core logic is simple: liquidity exhaustion

1: Wall Street is already on holiday. The real big funds and market makers are likely on vacation now. What's left in the market are interns and quantitative robots that can only rigidly execute strategies. The market depth is extremely poor.

2️: Beware of the 'painted door' market. In a small pond, a slightly larger fish can create huge waves. The most common trend during the holidays: sudden spikes without warning to lure in buyers ➡️ sideways consolidation wears down patience ➡️ sudden collapse liquidates longs, returning to the starting point. This is a precise hunt for retail investors who are still watching the market during the holidays.

🎄 My three holiday disciplines:

✅ If you don't understand, take a break: Preserving profits for 2025 is the top priority. Don't chase the last few points of profit. ✅ Stay away from sketchy contracts: The holiday season is a peak period for volatile spikes and high risk. For small coins with poor depth, don’t open high leverage. ✅ 'Waiting for the rabbit' strategy: If you must trade, only suggest placing small buy orders at extreme lows in BTC spot (such as -10% spike) to gamble on a liquidity mismatch.

Conclusion: Not trading during this garbage time is often the best strategy to outperform most people. Enjoy the holidays, and prepare your ammunition.

From "On-Chain Casino" to "Truth Machine": A Deep Review of the Evolution of Crypto Prediction Markets

I
Prediction markets are not a new concept. As early as the wild west era of Ethereum, Augur and Gnosis proposed a grand vision: a decentralized global prediction platform.

The infrastructure issue: At that time, running on Ethereum L1, predicting an outcome required paying dozens of dollars in Gas fees, and the confirmation speed was extremely slow.

Poor experience: Running nodes and using volatile platform tokens for settlement discouraged 99% of users. Conclusion: At the wrong time (L2 was not yet mature), the right thing was done.

II (The Success Path of Polymarket)

Embracing L2: Migrating to Polygon achieved nearly zero Gas fees and a smooth experience.

Dollar settlement: Directly using USDC. Users care about how much money they can make, not how many platform tokens.

The birth of "Information Finance": This is a concept strongly promoted by Vitalik. In the traditional world, information is cheap or even false; but in prediction markets, "Money Talks". To profit, market participants are compelled to dig for the most accurate information. Polymarket essentially became a more efficient "truth discovery machine" than Bloomberg.

III. Future Trends: The Explosion of AI Agents and Micro-Markets

🤖 Trend 1: The Full Involvement of AI Agents In the future, prediction markets may no longer be a battlefield for humans.

AI will act as traders, capturing global data 24/7 for millisecond-level games.

AI will serve as an "Oracle", as Omen/Gnosis is exploring, using AI to instantaneously adjudicate outcomes, greatly improving market efficiency.

🎯 Trend 2: Moving from Macro to Vertical Micro Beyond presidential elections, everything in the future could be predicted:

On-chain sports/esports (more transparent, not subject to unplugging).

Corporate decision markets (using internal prediction markets to replace inefficient meeting discussions, allowing employees to vote with money to express their true views).

Conclusion
Prediction markets have undergone a historic evolution. In this era of explosive noise, even if you do not place bets, learning to read the odds of prediction markets will be the lowest-cost way for you to obtain the truth.

穷人没有资本，唯一的杠杆就是命（时间和健康）。如果你在没发财之前就把身体搞垮了，相当于本金归零，那你连翻身的桌子都被撤走了。

Dark Forest of Cryptocurrency · 18 Safety Survival Guidelines for the Survival Combat Map (Remember! Remember!)

1. High APY is not sustainable. If you don't understand where the profits come from, you are the source of those profits.

2. Don't blindly FOMO: Jumping in after seeing others earn 100 times is usually just taking over their losses.

3. Infinite authorization is a slow suicide: The smaller the limit, the safer it is. Defaulting to infinite authorization is the root of drained wallets.

4. Mnemonic phrases/private keys should never go online: No screenshots, no cloud storage, no chat tools for saving. Use physical media and geographic dispersion.

5. Most shitcoin projects have very few that can succeed: 99% of meme coins ultimately end up at zero.

6. Upgradable contracts = exposure to future credit: "Emergency governance" is often used to bypass scrutiny.

7. Don’t try to catch the bottom: In a downtrend, there’s a basement below the floor, and hell below the basement.

8. "No-risk arbitrage" is the most expensive illusion in this industry.

9. Stablecoins are not necessarily stable: UST collapsed, and USDC also has solvency risks. Redemption mechanisms and collateral quality are the bottom line.

10. Exchanges are not wallets: What you receive is an IOU, not asset control. MTgox, FTX are case studies.

11. Blind signing is a blank check: If you don’t understand it, don’t sign it, and don’t rush it. Readable signatures are a basic right.

12. Beware of "clipboard hijacking": Carefully verify addresses; don’t trust your fast fingers. Address poisoning attacks are evolving.

13. Rug Pull/Pixiu Scheme: Can only buy, cannot sell; going in means zeroing out. Anonymous teams + unopen-sourced + liquidity not locked = red flags.

14. Leverage is a time bomb: Volatility will settle for you. Using leverage in a highly volatile market, destruction is just a matter of time.

15. The liquidation mechanism will self-reinforce in volatility: When collateral correlation rises, over-collateralization is also unsafe.

16. Regulation is an off-chain black swan: Often overestimated in the short term, often underestimated in the long term. Reserve for migration, exit, and compliance buffers.

17. Private messages are the entry point: If someone on Discord/Telegram messages you first, 99.9% chance they are scammers. Officials will never message you first.

18. Surviving is more important than making money - survival is the prerequisite for compounding interest and is the ticket to participate in the next cycle.
#安全常识

🧘‍♂️ Current State of Cryptocurrency People

🚶‍♂️ Physical State: Accompanying my wife shopping / Accompanying my child at the amusement park / At a friends' gathering. Looks like a normal human being.😊

👻 Soul State: Calculating $BTC 15-minute level top divergence. Wondering why the $ETH exchange rate hasn't rebounded yet. Thinking about whether that vibration was a liquidation message.📊

💊 Diagnosis: It's time for medication, 😂 this is a typical 7x24 hour candlestick withdrawal syndrome. Admit it, at this very moment, are you not scrolling through Twitter? Checking candlesticks? Checking prices?

If we compare HashKey with the American giant Coinbase (COIN), we find that HashKey's valuation is very expensive (the so-called 'new stock premium' or 'scarcity premium')

A company that is still losing money and whose revenue scale is far smaller than Coinbase enjoys a valuation multiple that is twice that of the industry leader, and will require extremely high performance growth in the long term to digest this bubble. $HSK

Macro: Water source has opened (Federal Reserve) Last night, the Federal Reserve confirmed the interest rate cut. Note that monetary policy has a 6-month lag. This means that Q1 2026 will be the moment of the most abundant global liquidity.

🛣️ 2. Technical: Infrastructure is complete (Ethereum) Don't just look at ETH prices, look at the infrastructure. The TVL and TPS of Layer 2 are both hitting historical highs. The blockchain has upgraded from 'dirt road' to 'highway', ready to accommodate trillions of dollars entering the market.

🐳 3. Financial: Major players are rushing (Whales) Just today, 1000 BTC that had been dormant for 14 years was transferred. At this time point, using an old coin that has been dormant for 14 years is likely an institutional over-the-counter (OTC) acquisition. What are they rushing for? They are rushing for tickets for 2026.

💡 Conclusion: Macro provides money, technology provides strength, and major players provide signals. These three forces are resonating.

🧠 Thinking: If we don't talk about the price of coins, what is left for Bitcoin? The answer is: energy hegemony.

🌍 Current situation: The world is facing "electricity hunger." With the exponential explosion of AI model parameters, electricity has become a scarcer resource than chips.

🤝 Trend: We see more and more Bitcoin mining companies (Miners) transforming into HPC (High-Performance Computing) centers. Simply put: previously used electricity to mine coins, now using electricity to support AI.

💎 What does this mean for BTC?

Cost baseline raised: Electricity has become more expensive, mining costs have increased, and the cost price moat of Bitcoin has been elevated.

Risk resistance enhanced: Mining companies have stable cash flow from AI businesses, so there is no rush to sell Bitcoin during bear markets.

Viewpoint: Energy + computing power asset revaluation + reserves + anti-inflation + crossing borders. Holding Bitcoin is actually holding a ticket to enter the future world.

1️⃣ "City Team" enters: Vancouver's mayor proposes to include Bitcoin in the city's reserves!
2️⃣ Key date 12/11: The day after tomorrow! CEOs of major U.S. banks will hold a secret meeting with senators! 🏦 The U.S. FOMC interest rate decision

Does it feel like everyone is rushing in? Are you sure you don't want to sell to these old guys at the "conspiracy must drop" point when the interest rate cut expectations come to fruition?? 👇

New regulations released by Dongda! Can ordinary people still hold Bitcoin?🧐

Summary: ✅ Holding: Compliant (personal property, no legal prohibition) ✅ Technology: Supported (Web3, Metaverse, blockchain applications) ⚠️ Trading: High risk (risk self-borne, law does not provide a safety net) ❌ Business: Red line (do not act as a middleman, do not become an OTC trader)

📝 Key points:

Stablecoins becoming a new focus: USDT has been named, be cautious with deposits and withdrawals recently, protect your bank card credit!

Long-termism: The current environment is not suitable for short-term speculation, but is suitable for deep learning and long-term allocation.

Mindset construction: Regulation is to weed out the “bad money,” what remains is the true “good money.”

Maintain patience and wait for the flowers to bloom.

Post-Drinking Notes (No Investment Advice)\n1: The market is likely to first rebound to the 97,000 or 107,000 range to obtain liquidity and create a 'bull trap', and then inevitably drop towards around 70,000 (the timing is uncertain, just wait).\n\n2. Trading Strategy: Further appropriate short selling when the price falsely rebounds to the 100,000 to 107,000 range.\n\n3. Macroeconomic and Technical Background: The 'death cross' has established a bearish tone, and the FOMC meeting on December 10 will be a catalyst for short-term volatility. If a rate cut expectation is confirmed, the market has already priced that in. If the rate cut does not occur as expected, it will trigger a severe sell-off.

Looking back, Trump doesn't really love cryptocurrency or BTC. It's just political gamesmanship. The future development of Bitcoin depends on the U.S. economy. It is more of a political and financial bargaining chip. It is increasingly irrelevant to retail investors.

What is good and what is bad? It depends on who you compare yourself to. Always live in the present. Happiness, anger, sadness, and joy are all parts of life; trading coins should not be the entirety of life.

The main reasons for the U-price inversion in the cryptocurrency market are that some risk capital is being transferred for cashing out.
1. Regulatory factors, the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States, and China's latest announcement regarding money laundering using stablecoins.

2. The hot money fleeing for cashing out represented by the collapse of the Chen Zhitai Group in the gray and black industrial chain. (The case of Huiwang)

3. The circle is now in such a mess that risk capital won't play with you guys; you all are playing with Trump, aiming to take them down.
$USDT

Keep expecting

$DOGE will evolve into a niche currency in the future, similar to coins, $5, $10. The circulation speed is not high, not fast. But everyone recognizes its value.

Today is truly extraordinary, it really feels like 'in deep waters and fire'. On one side, there’s a massive fire in Hong Kong, and on the other side, our cryptocurrency market is also on fire, and we can barely hold onto our wallets!
1: Massive Fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong
Let's begin with a heart-wrenching incident. A sudden fire broke out in Tai Po, Hong Kong today, and the thick black smoke at the scene is indeed quite frightening. Although we focus on finance and trending topics, safety is always the top priority. I hope our friends in Hong Kong stay safe and try to stay away from dangerous areas.

2: Upbit's 'Ice and Fire' If the fire in Hong Kong was an accident, then what happened at South Korea's largest exchange, Upbit, today is simply a scene from a 'palace drama'.

First, there was a bombshell: South Korean internet giant Naver agreed to acquire Upbit. What does this mean? It's akin to a major company here acquiring a top exchange, which is initially great news, indicating that legitimate players are entering the market, right?

But right after that, the unexpected happened! Just when everyone was preparing to celebrate, news broke that Upbit was hacked. Isn’t that a coincidence? Just as they said they were selling out, the money disappeared? Is this due to advanced hacking skills, or is someone putting on a show? The depths of this situation are too profound. If you have assets on Korean exchanges, make sure to keep an eye on them; safety first.

3: And it’s not over yet; our most commonly used USDT is also causing concern. Today, there was news that USDT was downgraded by institutions. To translate this simply: authoritative institutions believe that the risks associated with USDT have increased. As the 'water' of our cryptocurrency market, if USDT is unstable, it’s not just a matter of whether one can make money, but whether your principal is still intact. Although USDT has weathered many storms, this downgrade is a signal, reminding everyone: never put all your eggs in one basket.

So you see, today’s world, whether real or virtual, is quite turbulent. As the old saying goes: in this uncertain market, surviving is more important than how much you can earn.

My booth is also set up, diagnostic coins, look at coins, assess coin quality. Providing guidance and diagnostic opinions, (Brothers, those with money support financially, those without money support personally. 100U is not too much, not too expensive. Male coin friends look at it stiffly, female coin friends look at it plump.)

Today's Highlights:
The market has dropped for seven consecutive days, and today it closed with a daily candlestick indicating a potential stop in the decline. It is holding at 93,000 and is expected to rebound to 99,000 USD within three days, with hopes of entering an upward trend.

Recommendation: ICP Entry Point: 4.9-5.6 Take Profit Point: 6.9-9.1 Stop Loss Point: 4.6