The real reason retail investors fail when trying to catch the bottom is often not because of bad luck, but because they are deeply trapped in various psychological misconceptions.
In three years of trading experience, I gradually discovered that the real reason retail investors fail when trying to catch the bottom is not due to "bad luck," but rather because they often fall into several psychological traps that prevent them from accurately understanding the true state of the market. Today, I will delve into these psychological traps and propose solutions.
Misconception 1: Over-reliance on historical highs - using the wrong "reference frame"
When the price of Bitcoin dropped to $90,000, many investors' first reaction was often: "A 29% drop from $120,000, isn't that cheap?" or "It was still $126,000 in October, if I don't buy it at $90,000 now, when will I buy it?" This is a typical manifestation of over-reliance on historical highs. Most people tend to use historical highs as the basis for determining whether to "catch the bottom," but the market does not care about past prices, only the current supply and demand dynamics and emotional fluctuations.
As Bitcoin rises to 68,000, this sector is about to start!
Ambush at speed
We are currently in the beginning stages of a violent bull market, although it has not yet fully started. In every round of bull market, there are sectors rotating
This cycle, the RWA sector will explode again
RWA's leading currency #OM 0M plays a vital role in the MANTRA chain ecosystem, especially in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA).
As the native currency of MANTRA Chain, 0M not only plays a variety of important functions as a "record book" for the RWA industry, but also provides a standardized security network layer to track and record RWA transactions and ownership.
But 0M will also be embedded in the protocol layer as a "password guide" for RWA liquidity, helping to promote and manage liquidity throughout the emerging global RWA ecosystem.
The current price is around 1.4. If there is a pullback, enter the market directly to see $2
The second is #Ondo Ondo Finance is building a decentralized investment bank. Like traditional investment banks, Ondo aims to be a center that matches people with capital with those who need capital by creating customized financial products (such as stocks, bonds, structured products, derivatives, etc.) that organizations can offer to investors to raise funds. Historically, this work is often highly manual, costly, and intermediary-dependent. Ondo Finance is currently an important member of the RWA track. If you want to pull the market, you can't do without Ondo. The current price is 0.7. If it rises, you can look at around 1.2.
This period of time is really a good opportunity to layout The market has stabilized, and the RWA sector that has been studied for a long time will start to layout immediately Each one is expected to have an increase of more than 30% If you like spot, follow the homepage introduction to find me and take you for free~ $OM $UMA $TRU #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #特斯拉转移比特币
Bitcoin, the violent bull market may have begun or is about to begin.
After each halving, Bitcoin will experience a consolidation period of about 6 months.
In 2016, it took 170 days to break through the previous high after the halving to open the bull market
In 2020, it took 197 days to break through the previous high after the halving
In 2024, the halving time has passed 170 days.
Possible signs of a bull market in the short term, if Bitcoin breaks through $70,000 and stabilizes, it may officially start a new round of market.
At present, market sentiment has improved, the price of the currency has stabilized at 62,000 and there are signs of upward attack, but the old leeks unanimously believe that breaking through $73,000 is the real bull market.
Based on the prediction of historical cycles, according to the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycle, the violent cycle after halving starts 170 days after halving, and October 7, 2024 is this key node, which suggests that the bull market may have begun or is about to begin.
In the bull market, the leading currencies are hyped first. The following leading currencies are ambushed quickly.
Game track: pixel, portal, xai, ace, gala
Modular narrative: tia, alt, manta
New public chain: sui, apt, sei, ton
New second layer: strk, op, arb
Pledge track: ldo, ssv, ethfi
Depin track: fil, mobile
RWA track: mkr, polyx, rio, ondo
Sol ecology: ray, pyth, jup, jto, sol
Meme track: pepe, wif, bome myro bonk floki
If you still can't find the hot spot, you can definitely find it by looking for me. Come to me, I will give you a free layout #Meme浪潮持续,你看好哪一个? #特斯拉转移比特币 #美股财报季来袭 $LDO $BOME $MKR
BOME currently has a circulating market value of about 630 million.
Let's talk about what our friends care about directly. When will it be able to usher in a 10x increase like pepe in February and March this year.
It has been 8 months since the opening of Binance. In these 8 months, you can carefully observe whether BOME's daily and weekly lines are almost the same as the trend of pepe after the opening of Binance, except that there may be some discrepancies in time. It has been oscillating and washing for more than a month. It is necessary to clean up the profit-taking in the three days before listing on Binance and reach a new price consensus.
Why compare these two? Because the market-making methods of the two do have many similarities.
Looking back at the previous listing of pepe on Binance, washing, and then ushering in a big rise, they basically followed the pace of BTC. The same is true for BOME now. When BTC falls, BOME also falls; when BTC rises, BOME also rises. So this is why I said before that we should learn to improve our understanding of BTC. Because it all depends on the mood of the big cake.
The previous low point of BOME is 0.05-0.006 (the circulating market value of this price is about 420 million). Those who have copied this bottom must be happy. Now it has risen. Those who didn’t copy it will definitely ask whether it will reach this range or even lower in the future. As mentioned earlier, it depends on the mood of the big cake. Will BTC fall in the future, such as a second test of 65,000 or even lower?
The biggest black swan is the US economic recession and other events that affect panic. It may bring about drastic market fluctuations. Of course, it is unpredictable at present, so we have to pay attention. If panic spreads at that time, ETFs cannot cover the bottom, and capital liquidity cannot keep up with BTC, it will be inevitable, then BOME will usher in a return to value again
In this world of currency circles full of variables, we might as well embrace MEME and use emotions to feel the market’s beating. Perhaps this will better seize opportunities! #bome. #BTC能否站稳6W6 #美国大选如何影响加密产业? #Meme浪潮持续,你看好哪一个? $BOME $TURBO $BTC
Decentralized technology: GPT tokens use blockchain technology to ensure data transparency and immutability, allowing users to enjoy higher security and trust when using AI technology.
Community-driven: Token holders can participate in project governance, vote on the future development direction of the project, and enhance users' sense of participation and belonging.
Wide application: GPT tokens are not only used for trading and investment, but also can be used to support a variety of AI-based applications, such as smart contracts, data analysis, content generation, etc., which expands its use scenarios.
Incentive mechanism: The project has designed a variety of incentives to encourage users to participate in the ecosystem, including staking, liquidity mining, etc., to enhance the use value of tokens.
Professional team: The project team is composed of experienced experts in the fields of blockchain and AI, with strong technical background and market insight, and can promote the steady development of the project.
Continuous innovation: The GPT token project is committed to continuously developing new functions and applications, maintaining technological leadership, and adapting to rapidly changing market needs.
The data tonight is bearish! $WIF $ORDI wif is still weak. It rose to 2.8 the day before yesterday. This time it fell back to around 2.2, which is the support point of 2.2 on October 6. The current upward momentum is relatively small. The intraday level looks up to 2.44-2.45. If it falls below 2.2, it will directly see the range of 2.0. Continue to pay attention to around 2.2
ORDI From the hourly chart, 32 is approaching the key support level. If it can stabilize at 32, it will usher in an upward trend. If the price successfully breaks through the 33.5 resistance level, it will bring a bullish trend. Pay attention to the upper pressure level of 35. The rebound has not broken through 33.5 in the past few days. The market may continue to fluctuate and fall. The lower support level is worth paying attention to 30 #6万保卫战 #币安LaunchpoolSCR #SCR新币挖矿开始!
$W is listed on Upbit, the largest exchange in South Korea💥 After listing, it soared 50% 🔥
Is w worth buying? What is the real role of the token?
Hello everyone, I am Bit-eight. I will explain the real value of w. Double-click to like and follow
1. W, formerly known as Wormhole, is a cross-chain messaging protocol launched in 2020 to help developers create cross-chain applications.
It initially focused on two-way bridging between Ethereum and Solana, and later developed into a general messaging protocol that supports multiple blockchains and became independent from Jump Crypto.
Although Wormhole experienced a major security breach in 2022 and lost about 120,000 ETH, it still thrived and built a complete ecosystem, with more than 200 projects on its platform.
In 2023, Wormhole completed a $225 million financing with a valuation of $2.5 billion, attracting the participation of many well-known investment institutions.
2. Overview of the issuance and economic model of the native token W:
Wormhole's native token is W, which supports ERC-20 and Solana SPL standards, with a total supply of 10 billion and an initial circulation of 1.8 billion. The remaining 8.2 billion tokens will be locked at the initial issuance and will be gradually unlocked over the next 4 years.
The above are his functions and token value I personally do not recommend opening a position because of security issues and ecosystem dependence If you are a big investor, will you buy tokens for staking?
There are only three words to buy coins: There is room! There is room! There is room!!! #PYTHUSDT📈 Now it is the bottom no matter how you look at it. If you want a coin with popularity, traffic, and funds, you must have it if you hold it 3-5 times He is #pyth The first point: Oracle (ois) has been significantly upgraded recently! The second point: The current position is low, so you are not afraid of being trapped, and there is a lot of room for growth. The third point: $PYTH is a new currency this year, and it has never risen sharply! Fourth point: This wave of stake upgrades is simply to reward high-quality data for staking and fine low-quality data, so retail investors’ pledges are guaranteed, which is good for PYTH
See the figure below for the point: You can consider buying 50% of the current price or picking up goods in the range of 0.3-0.28 For the relative bottom, it is okay to look at 3u in the medium and long-term bull market, and the resistance level of 0.5-052 in the short term
If you want to get more analysis and investment advice, follow me! I will continue to share the latest developments to help you seize opportunities in investment and maximize your returns!
Share personal technical experience every day and do single direction (comment "already followed" in the comment area to get a red envelope) $SUI $SAGA
This rebound closed at 2600 points, which is the resistance range of 2560-2600 points yesterday, and then retreated. However, the current retreat strength is relatively small. The intraday level is 2600-2700. After breaking through, you can directly see the 2200-2300 range. The resistance position of the intraday level, continue to pay attention to the line near 2560
The cottage season has come. I have seen several currencies that have not risen sharply and have potential. #pyth #bome. #UNI📈 Pyth can be deployed in the medium and long term. The reason is that Pyth has recently undergone a major upgrade of OIS to further empower Pyth. It may not show its advantages in the short term. It is a long-term positive
Bome I have been watching for a long time. Among the popular meme currencies, it has not been hyped yet. The stop loss band is 0.007, and the long-term layout can also be used. The target is 0.01
uni is the leader of decentralized exchanges! The current price can be used to open a spot position. Although UNI is facing a lawsuit from the SEC, the outlook is also optimistic! It is recommended to hold it in the medium and long term. The upper side can be seen above 15 $PYTH $BOME $UNI
65,000 is the top, even if the data is good, it can't go up
The current trading volume is too low. There is no driving wave upward.
On the contrary, the local peak is becoming more and more obvious.
There are more than 40 days before the interest rate cut in November, 50 points is 65,000 (I said 70,000 to give myself a step)
Once there is a slight disturbance, it will only take one or two days to return to 57,000.
Crypto is just a tool for canvassing votes in the election. Don't pin your hopes on a certain president #新币挖矿已上线HMSTR #加密市场反弹 #美联储宣布降息50个基点 $CELO $1MBABYDOGE $WLD
The operation strategy of the American "big capitalist Livermore" is indeed very classic. His core is to control risks and use profits to expand positions.
I spent 10 hours to count how he operated.
For example, take 1000u to invest in ETH
1. Initial investment: First buy 20% of the funds. For example, if you invest 1000u, you should first buy 200u of Ethereum.
Stop loss setting: If the price of Ethereum drops by 10% (i.e., a loss of 20u), stop loss immediately to ensure that the loss does not exceed 2% (20u) of the total position, that is, the loss amount is acceptable.
Position increase strategy: The first position increase: If Ethereum rises by 10% (to 2220u), add another 20% (buy another 400u), and the total position reaches 600u.
The second position increase: if it rises by another 10% (to 2420 yuan), add another 20% (buy another 120u), and the total position reaches 720u.
The third increase in position: another 10% increase (to 2662 yuan),
The last increase in position is 40% (buy another 280u), and the total position reaches 1000u.
Hold and close position: As long as the loss does not exceed 10% (that is, it falls back to 240 yuan), continue to hold. If the price falls to 240 yuan, close all positions to ensure that the loss is within an acceptable range.
#BTC突破7万大关 The monthly line will be closed in a few days, and we will also enter the fourth quarter of 2024. Recently, many people asked me that the account balance has lost a lot of money due to the previous decline. Do you have any good and popular currency recommendations to recover the losses? I have summarized them. In addition to those mainstream value coins, the following currencies can be focused on. Funds will give priority to speculating on high-quality currencies that are worth investing in!
Bitcoin ecosystem: stx sats
Ethereum series: ssv
Binance series: bnx
RWA section: OM ondo
Game section: YGG
AI section: FET tao
Lending section: AAVE
Meme coin: bome
Oracle: PYTH
Double-click like + comment Leave your high-quality coins in the comment area for me to see,
The above are the coins that I personally like. Whether to buy or how much to buy depends on whether you can trust your judgment 100%. If you have hesitation, fear, or worry, think twice before acting. Don't gamble, don't gamble. For more detailed strategy layout, see the column page #加密市场反弹 #USDTmarket value hits a record high $FET $BOME $STX
There are only three words to buy coins: There is room! There is room! There is room!!! #PYTHUSDT📈 Now it is the bottom no matter how you look at it. If you want a coin with popularity, traffic, and funds, you must have it if you hold it 3-5 times He is #pyth The first point: Oracle (ois) has been significantly upgraded recently! The second point: The current position is low, so you are not afraid of being trapped, and there is a lot of room for growth. The third point: $PYTH is a new currency this year, and it has never risen sharply! Fourth point: This wave of stake upgrades is simply to reward high-quality data for staking and fine low-quality data, so retail investors’ pledges are guaranteed, which is good for PYTH
See the figure below for the point: You can consider buying 50% of the current price or picking up goods in the range of 0.3-0.28 For the relative bottom, it is okay to look at 3u in the medium and long-term bull market, and the resistance level of 0.5-052 in the short term
If you want to get more analysis and investment advice, follow me! I will continue to share the latest developments to help you seize opportunities in investment and maximize your returns!
Share personal technical experience every day and do single direction (comment "already followed" in the comment area to get a red envelope) $SUI $SAGA
Bitcoin surges to $70,000 will liquidate $800 million
Breaking through $65,000, the next step is $70,000. The current Bitcoin will soon break through resistance and rise to $6.70,000. I am bullish this week. But the long-term trend remains bearish If BTC cannot break through $6.50,000, it may confirm a bearish divergence, leading to more downward pressure in the coming weeks.
The hidden bearish divergence complicates the situation. This pattern occurs when the price forms a lower high, but the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows a higher high. Although a red candle has appeared on the chart, confirming the divergence, it is too early to tell whether it will lead to a larger downtrend.
The key turning point is that the United States will release the final value of the second quarter GDP data at 8:30 pm on Thursday
The United States will release the August PCE data, one of the inflation indicators, at 8:30 pm on Friday.
If the data is released and Bitcoin can quickly break through $64,500, this bearish divergence may be invalidated. However, if the price does not break through this resistance level within a week, the bearish divergence will increase, leading to a short-term downward trend.
Whether it is rising or falling After the interest rate cut, there will be a lot of retail funds flowing into the crypto market, and the Chinese government has already allocated 500 billion yuan for layout. After the panic is over, the big cake and the cottage will continue to strengthen. A small part of the cottage is at the bottom, and there are few opportunities for ambush. The position can be increased to more than 50%. Just choose a strong currency and hold it.
Give priority to popular cottages, such as saga, sui, wif, bome fet, etc.
BlackRock just released a new BTC report! Bitcoin is about to break the 70,000 mark!
Last night I compiled the complete report including various market forecasts, how to invest to maximize profits and investment risks. I went through the entire document and found all the hidden big pumps!!
Before you begin, please double-click to like, follow and forward this post I spent a lot of time researching and would really appreciate your support in sharing all my knowledge for free!
On September 18, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, officially released a new Bitcoin report. 👇 PowerPoint Presentation (blackrock.com) (Original link)
#BTC走势预测 #ETH走势分析 Are all BTC upper and lower pins stopped? Let’s try to open an order according to my idea. Those who hold short orders at 61000 must be suffering recently. The current market gives people a feeling that it will not fall even if it is about to die, but there are many people who are bullish. However, I still expect a correction in the future. It is hard to say where it will fall. After all, it is still bullish after the interest rate cut. To go down, it must fall below the 4-hour support of 59175. Those who open orders should pay attention to position management. The big cake has not broken through the big pressure level of 6.5. Pay attention to the position of 63465 today. As long as the closing line of the 4-hour level does not stand above this position, the 4-hour level has been in a correction market. Pay attention to the lower support level of 62520-61700-61040 (today, it fell below 61700 and started to correct). If the 4-hour level closes above 63500, it means that this wave of 4-hour correction is over. The market starts to move up. Pay attention to the upper target/pressure level of 63780-64430-65150!
Ethereum's recent performance is optimistic. Pay attention to the position of 2645. As long as the closing line of the 4-hour level does not stand above this position, the 4-hour level has been in a correction market. Pay attention to the lower support level near 2608-2570-2527! (2608 is the position of the pin in the morning, and this position may not hold up again)
If the 4-hour level closes above 2645, it means that this wave of 4-hour level correction has ended and the market has started to move up. Pay attention to the upper target/pressure level near 2680-2715-2752! Go short. Place an order at the pressure level. Go long. Place an order at the support level.
Leave a message in the comment area about your opinion on the subsequent performance of the market! One person will be selected to receive 200,000 pepes
It is crucial to grasp the reversal signal. Pay attention to technical and fundamental analysis to help you make decisions. For more in-depth analysis and real-time updates, please follow me to help you invest further! $WIF $FIDA $BTC #加密市场反弹
Just a random guess. I don't believe this BTC trend will have much follow-up impact due to the declining high structure since March. The 5 previous highs that fell caused deviations. But all reversals must start somewhere, especially when the consensus turns extreme. $BTC $CKB $WIF #新币挖矿CATI #美降息25个基点预期升温 #何时黑天鹅
Trump got anxious at the debate, and it can be said that he was beaten by Harris. Not to mention their policy content, Harris won in terms of debate skills and logic.
Trump is going to lose, and some Asian market players are already restless, and the price has reacted.
But the foundation of encryption is not Trump, but the US economy.
Why do many people think this year is a bull market?
Historically, the crypto bull market cycle repeats itself every 4 years. We all know it. But many of us are still losing money. Let's find out why. 1. Anatomy of a Crypto Bull Market Cycle Generally speaking, a bull market cycle lasts about 4 years. During this whole 4 years, the first 3 years are bear markets, while the last one is a bull market. The first two cycles showed these exact times: 📅2014-2018 Bear Market: 177 weeks Bull Market: 34 weeks Total: 211 weeks (4 years and 2 weeks) 📅2018-2022 Bear Market: 157 weeks Bull Market: 47 weeks Total: 204 weeks (3 years and 11 months)