奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Fed Chair Warsh sounds dovish: rate-hike expectations cool down, and gold steadies and rises

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered remarks at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, Portugal, saying that over the past few weeks, inflation expectations and inflation risks have eased. The market interpreted this as a dovish signal.

In response, expectations for further Fed rate hikes were tempered. The U.S. dollar index fell on the news, while gold prices continued their upward trend.

Analysts noted that because Warsh’s comments were not as forceful as the market had expected, they also boosted investors’ confidence in risk assets to some extent.

In his remarks, Warsh emphasized that the Fed will firmly and consistently pursue its goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% policy target, reiterated the central bank’s independence, and said it will retain room for independent decision-making when shaping the policy path.

He also said the Fed will no longer provide forward-looking guidance. This implies that the way the Fed communicates policy in the future will undergo a significant change, making it difficult for the market to predict the next policy direction through conventional guidance.

Overall, Warsh’s series of remarks not only eased concerns about an aggressive rate-hike stance from the Fed, but also provided short-term support for safe-haven assets such as gold, while creating a more favorable environment for risk assets such as equities.

#美联储主席鲍威尔讲话

BTC spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $295 million on Wednesday, while ETH ETFs recorded total net inflows of $14.89 million.

On July 2, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. BTC spot ETFs yesterday recorded total net outflows of nearly $295 million, marking the 10th consecutive day of net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscale’s GBTC had the largest net outflows, with $219 million (about 3,650 BTC) and $62.79 million (about 1,040 BTC), respectively;

Next were Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB, which recorded single-day net outflows of $51.02 million (848.27 BTC) and $39.90 million (663.34 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s BTC and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT recorded single-day net inflows of $36.33 million (604.04 BTC) and $29.81 million (495.69 BTC), respectively;

Invesco’s BTCO and Frankin EZBC recorded single-day net inflows of $5.37 million (89.29 BTC) and $3.48 million (57.79 BTC), respectively;

VanEck HODL and Hashdex DEFI recorded single-day net inflows of $2.13 million (35.35 BTC) and $1.36 million (22.63 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $72.46 billion, representing 6.01% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $50.86 billion.

On the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $14.89 million, marking the first day of total net inflows after nine consecutive days of net outflows.

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA recorded $36.64 million (about 22,640 ETH), becoming the only Ethereum ETF with net outflows yesterday; ETHA has accumulated total net inflows of $11.09 billion so far;

Grayscale’s ETH, BlackRock’s ETHB, and Fidelity’s FETH recorded single-day net outflows of $18.46 million (about 11,410 ETH), $1.67 million (about 1,030 ETH), and $1.61 million (996.82 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.56 billion, representing 4.39% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $10.86 billion.

On the same day, the XRP ETF recorded a $1.86 million single-day net outflow; while SOL, HYPE, and LINK recorded single-day net inflows of $520,000, $2.85 million, and nearly $920,000, respectively.

#比特币ETF

Bitwise CIO: STRC Volatility Signals the End of a Cycle; the Market Bottom May Be Near

Recently, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan shared his views on the market-driven volatility of the STRC preferred stock instrument of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and how it may affect market cycles.

He noted that STRC’s share price fell from around $100 to $75, mainly due to investors’ concerns about Strategy’s ability and willingness to pay dividends.

However, Strategy has already announced a new framework that enables dividend obligations to be met by regularly selling Bitcoin, and it will stop automatically raising interest rates in order to defend the $100 share price.

Hougan believes STRC’s volatility is a typical “end-of-cycle” phenomenon. At the top of a market cycle, investors often chase higher yields through contracts; only after this leverage is flushed out does the market truly bottom.

In essence, STRC is a vehicle for capital seeking high returns and low volatility to buy Bitcoin—yet Bitcoin does not provide both of those qualities. This capital needs to be removed from the market.

He expects the era in which Strategy was the most important buyer of Bitcoin may be coming to an end. Going forward, institutional investors (banks, asset managers, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc.) will take over as the primary demand source, and he pointed out that firms such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo have already begun positioning.

Hougan said that while he can’t precisely predict the market bottom, investors can watch signals such as MSTR’s discount-to-NAV trading, the Fear & Greed Index dropping into extreme fear territory, and the rates on leveraged funds turning negative.

Regarding concerns about liquidation risk, he said it’s unlikely to happen. Strategy currently holds $52 billion in liquid assets, while its debt is only $7 billion. For Bitcoin to pose a liquidation threat, it would need to drop more than 70% and remain that way for years.

Overall, despite STRC’s volatility and the pullback in MSTR’s share price, Hougan believes this reflects typical end-of-cycle dynamics. This may suggest the market bottom is near and that a new bull market cycle could begin in the fall.

#STRC #MSTR

Tether CEO explains why it dropped its application for an EU MiCA license: alliance rules or risks to reserve security and user interests

Recently, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino gave an interview to the media, explaining why USDT—a stablecoin with a market value of $184 billion—did not apply for an EU MiCA regulatory license, saying the regulation poses significant risks to stablecoins.

Ardoino said Tether’s decision to forgo applying for a MiCA license was a carefully considered move, intended to protect more than 400 million USDT users from potential risks.

He described the framework as a “very dangerous stablecoin regulatory regime,” mainly because he is concerned that the rules require it to place 60% of its reserve funds into uninsured accounts at small European banks—banks that may struggle to handle large-scale redemption requests.

Ardoino also sharply criticized the legislation as being “not well thought out.” He emphasized that, based on considerations for users’ interests, Tether chose not to apply for a license—an additional prudent step to “skip MiCA to protect users.”

Ardoino’s remarks come as the EU MiCA regulations are fully taking effect, sparking further discussion about how major stablecoin issuers will respond to regional regulatory requirements.

In summary, Tether’s decision also reflects the complex trade-offs that leading stablecoin issuers face between compliance and regulatory requirements and reserve security, as well as the real-world difficulty of striking a balance.

#Tether #MiCA牌照

New regulations in Tennessee and Georgia officially take effect, sparking a nationwide wave of crypto ATM bans

According to Cointelegraph, multiple states across the U.S. are gradually moving to ban crypto ATMs, reflecting that regulators nationwide are tightening restrictions on these devices.

Specifically, new rules in Tennessee and Georgia banning crypto-asset ATMs officially went into effect on July 1. The rules prohibit the use and installation of crypto ATMs and self-service terminals. Previously, the state had 185 crypto ATMs in operation;

Before that, Indiana implemented a similar ban in March. Minnesota is also scheduled to begin enforcing its ATM ban on August 1. In addition, lawmakers in Delaware and New Jersey have proposed measures to completely ban crypto ATMs.

The immediate cause of this regulatory tightening is the frequent occurrence of scams in many places. Elderly residents are lured into transferring money to scammers via crypto ATMs and are among the main victims. In the face of this serious situation, states have shown a converging approach to regulating crypto ATMs.

As a result of these events, regulatory pressure has had a tangible impact on the industry. Bitcoin ATM operator Bitcoin Depot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in May. This bankruptcy case may also signal bigger challenges for the entire crypto ATM industry.

However, some believe the main driver of this phenomenon is that states are increasingly imposing pressure to cut fees and expanding consumer-protection standards that make operators responsible for scam activities. As these changes erode the business model that previously depended on high transaction spreads and limited regulatory scrutiny, it is now falling apart.

It’s also worth noting that regulatory tightening is not limited to the U.S. At the federal level in Canada, a draft nationwide ban on crypto ATMs has also been proposed. Officials also said that these devices are a key channel for scammers to profit and for laundering illicit funds.

In summary, when the balance between “convenience” and “risk” is broken, unless crypto ATM operators can explore a more transparent, compliant, and efficient operating model, their space to survive in the U.S. market is likely to become increasingly narrow.

#加密ATM禁令

Trump’s Financial Disclosures Show Massive Crypto Asset Income, and Congress Accelerates Efforts to Include Moral Clauses in the “CLARITY Act”

Trump’s latest financial disclosure documents have sparked public concern over the urgency of adding crypto ethics clauses for public officials in cryptocurrency legislation. This move also significantly speeds up bipartisan negotiations in Congress over the cryptocurrency “CLARITY Act.”

According to documents released by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, Trump earned more than $1.4 billion in income from his cryptocurrency business in 2025;

Most of this income came from nearly $800 million generated by World Liberty Financial, a company founded by his family, as well as approximately $635 million in royalty income from a licensing agreement for his personal Meme coin, $TRUMP.

In addition, Trump personally holds about $100 million in mainstream cryptocurrencies, including more than $50 million in BTC, $5 million to $25 million in ETH, and $5 million to $25 million in USDC.

The unprecedented scale of this income underscores the importance of cryptocurrencies in the current political and economic landscape, while also prompting ethical discussions about conflicts of interest for public officials.

Although the U.S. president and vice president are legally exempt from federal conflict-of-interest regulations, every president since the Watergate era has voluntarily followed relevant ethical standards.

Moreover, a series of actions during Trump’s second term not only broke with this long-standing convention, but also led lawmakers and ethics experts to reexamine the applicability of the current legal framework.

Against this backdrop, lawmakers from both parties in Congress recognize the urgent need to pass legislation clarifying the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies—both to protect investors’ interests and to provide clear guidance for industry development.

In sum, the timing of Trump’s financial disclosures coincides with a key stage in cryptocurrency legislative negotiations, adding new urgency to the advancement of related bills while also offering a fresh entry point for broader discussions on restrictions regarding investment behavior by public officials.

#财务披露 #道德条款

UBS: Despite Waller's First Appearance Being Hawkish, the Chance of Rate Hikes This Year Remains Low

Last week, UBS said in its latest report that although the first FOMC meeting after Fed Chair Kevin Waller took office sent clear hawkish signals, market bets on additional rate hikes this year may be too aggressive.

The firm believes the market has clearly over-interpreted its reaction to Waller's debut. Its core judgment is mainly based on the following three key points:

First, the May CPI data show that inflation pressure brought by tariffs has reversed in price-sensitive categories. UBS expects the inflation trend over the coming year to ease by about 0.8 percentage points.

Second, in the second half of the year, the U.S. economy will face dual pressure: weakening fiscal support and slower growth in real incomes, which will weigh on household consumption.

Third, Waller announced the establishment of five internal working groups covering key areas such as communication mechanisms and the balance sheet, as well as the data framework. This comprehensive review process will significantly delay the timing of major policy adjustments.

UBS expects the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the rest of this year, and that the easing cycle may not begin until 2027.

In terms of asset allocation, UBS suggests that investors increase their allocation to high-quality short- and intermediate-duration bonds to lock in the currently elevated yields, while maintaining a medium- to long-term bullish view on gold. The firm also believes that rates will eventually move into a declining channel.

However, UBS's view is at odds with what the broader market currently assumes about rate pricing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 67%.

What do you think? Do you believe the market is too fearful of rate hikes, or that UBS's expectations are overly optimistic? Leave your thoughts in the comments section!

#瑞银

CryptoQuant: Exchange inflows are surging while SOPR continues to post losses—bitcoin market still in a risk-averse mode

On July 1, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report noting that the current sell-off pressure in the Bitcoin market is now clearly higher than during the February downturn stage, with two key on-chain indicators simultaneously reflecting a weak market backdrop.

Data show that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange inflows has climbed to 122,000 BTC. This is not only far above the annual benchmark of 82,000 BTC, but is also edging toward the upper one-standard-deviation band at 131,000 BTC.

Compared with the average level of roughly 80,000 BTC during the February sell-off period, Bitcoin’s 30-day average inflow is up by nearly 50%. This indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin is continuously flowing into exchanges, significantly intensifying market sell pressure.

At the same time, the 30-day average of Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.99 and has remained below the key break-even line of 1.0. This suggests that market participants are generally selling Bitcoin at a loss.

Since May, this indicator has been in the loss zone on 37 of 61 days. And in February, SOPR was also around 0.99, but exchange inflows were far lower than they are now.

Taken together, the analysis of these two key indicators shows that the current market is experiencing a similar degree of losses while also facing a much larger potential wave of sell orders.

Overall, this dual pressure suggests that the market is not dealing with a one-off stress event, but rather an ongoing, broad wave of sustained selling, with sentiment clearly leaning bearish.

Therefore, for the market to stabilize, it needs to meet both conditions: SOPR must rebound back above 1.0, and exchange inflows must drop back to levels above the annual benchmark, so the market trend’s fundamental shift can be confirmed.

#交易所比特币流入 #SOPR

Viewpoint: The AI reasoning market may exceed oil and become one of the world’s largest

Recently, Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, predicted in a podcast interview that AI reasoning will become one of the world’s largest markets. Its size could exceed that of oil and account for several percentage points of global GDP.

Patel believes that with each model iteration upgrade, the rate at which the number and value of tasks that can be completed expands continues to outpace the growth of compute capacity. As a result, a long-term shortage of compute may persist.

Regarding compute-demand projections, Patel expects that by 2030, the combined compute demand of only two companies—OpenAI and Anthropic—will exceed 100 gigawatts.

As for the outlook for space data centers, he thinks their impact will remain negligible in the next 3 to 5 years, but by 2040, more than half of new compute capacity may enter space.

Patel pointed out that the key constraint lies in ground-level energy costs and the ability to build new data centers. Once the economics of deploying compute in space surpass those on the ground, the migration of compute to space will become an inevitable trend.

In the area of co-design between hardware and software, Patel said that the AI efficiency improvements over the past three years have not mainly come from hardware, but from optimizations at the model layer and across layers.

For example, DeepSeek carried out targeted optimization for Nvidia’s Hopper architecture, so its performance is excellent on that chip, but it performs worse on TPUs.

By contrast, Anthropic’s models are better suited to TPUs, while OpenAI’s models are more geared toward GPU architectures.

Patel also said that the so-called “Nvidia CUDA moat” is essentially not just CUDA itself, but the result of open-source model ecosystems being widely co-optimized around GPU use.

In addition, Jensen Huang has been strongly supporting emerging cloud-computing providers. The goal is to prevent the compute market from being dominated by a small number of giants, and to promote healthy industry development and innovation vitality.

#AI推理市场规模

BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $250 million on Tuesday, with no net inflows across all-category crypto ETFs that day

July 1, according to SoSovalue data: US BTC spot ETFs recorded nearly $223 million in total net outflows yesterday, marking the 9th consecutive day of net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had the largest net outflow yesterday at $212 million (about 3,630 BTC). IBIT’s cumulative net inflows now stand at $60.25 billion;

Second was Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded a daily net outflow of $10.2 million (173.98 BTC). FBTC’s cumulative net inflows now total $10.13 billion;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $70.95 billion, accounting for 6.02% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Cumulative total net inflows are $51.15 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $27.6 million in total net outflows as well, also marking the 9th consecutive day;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA, with $27.6 million (about 17,510 ETH), was the only Ethereum ETF to register net outflows yesterday. ETHA’s cumulative net inflows currently stand at $11.06 billion;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.33 billion, representing 4.38% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization. Cumulative total net inflows are $10.85 billion.

In other US spot ETFs, XRP, SOL, and HYPE recorded daily net outflows of $2.83 million, $2.5 million, and $3.01 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #Ethereum ETF

SEC Seeks Public Comment on “New ETF” Regulatory Rules, Covering Crypto-Asset Funds and Prediction Market Funds

On June 30, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it is seeking public input on whether and how to regulate “new ETFs” and whether its existing registration processes need to be adjusted.

The focus of this consultation draft is how to promote innovation in the ETF sector while protecting investors, maintaining a fair, orderly, and efficient market, and encouraging capital formation.

In a statement, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the comment solicitation will widely draw in suggestions from market participants to explore pathways for the sustainable growth and innovative development of the ETF market, so that we can assess how to adapt to changes in today’s market landscape.

Brian Daly, head of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management, added that ETF assets have expanded from $4 trillion in April 2019 to more than $12 trillion by the end of 2025, with various new product types continuously emerging. Public feedback is crucial for refining long-term industry development rules.

This comment solicitation primarily focuses on three areas: whether new ETFs should be brought within the regulatory framework for investment companies; how to optimize supporting rules for innovative ETFs; and how much room there is to improve the registration process for listing new products.

Separately, market observers predict that this request for comments may lead the SEC, starting in 2027, to allow a wider range of ETF types, including funds based on event contracts, crypto-assets, and single-stock strategies.

Notably, the public comment period for these regulatory rules is 60 days, counted formally from the date the relevant documents are published in the Federal Register.

During this time, market participants, industry institutions, and other stakeholders may submit written comments on the regulatory framework for new ETFs to provide reference for the SEC’s policy-making.

#ETF监管规则

The crypto industry has already投入 189 million USD into the 2026 U.S. election cycle, exceeding the total amount spent on political donations by the entire 2024 election cycle

According to the latest report released by U.S. consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, the cryptocurrency industry has contributed 189 million USD to the 2026 U.S. election cycle, accounting for approximately 37% of all企业 political contributions during this cycle.

Although more than four months remain until the November U.S. general election, the combined spending of these political donations has already surpassed the total 170 million USD that the crypto industry donated throughout the entire 2024 election cycle.

This trend not only reflects the growing influence of the crypto industry in the U.S. political landscape, but also suggests that in the coming months, the industry’s investment in and attention to the election may continue to rise.

In terms of specific spending, the pro-cryptocurrency political action committee Fairshake has spent more than 82 million USD, while the MAGA Inc. super PAC backed by Crypto.com has spent more than 56 million USD.

Public Citizen criticized in its report that these super PACs put crypto interests first, with strategies that override political parties and candidates as they intervene in both parties’ primaries and selectively support or attack major candidates in the general election.

Notably, Fairshake and its affiliated organizations Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress are backed by cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase and Ripple. As of the January report, they had accumulated a funding reserve of 193 million USD.

Since 2024, other entities aligned with industry interests have also received contributions—for example, Fellowship PAC under Cantor Fitzgerald has received 11 million USD to date and pledged to spend at least 100 million USD in the election.

Overall, the crypto industry is deeply involved in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections with an unprecedented scale of funding, seeking to shape the Congressional landscape in its favor through the power of the industry.

#政治捐款 #美国中期选举

US President Encryption Holdings Disclosure: Trump Net Liquidated Over $1 Billion From TRUMP Tokens, While Vance Holds Up to $500,000 in Bitcoin

According to the latest U.S. government disclosure of the president’s annual financial filings, Trump received $635 million from TRUMP Meme Coin through authorization and revenue-sharing arrangements.

According to analysts’ monitoring, when adding all aspects along the entire chain—such as issuance, marketing, and cash-out—their net cash-out from the token is at least over $1 billion.

In addition, Trump personally also holds about $100 million in cryptocurrencies. This includes more than $50 million in BTC, $5 million to $25 million in ETH, and $5 million to $25 million in USDC.

Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, in his latest financial disclosure, reported holding $250,000 to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. A series of further disclosures also highlight that crypto assets are gradually becoming a normal asset-allocation category among top U.S. government officials.

This disclosure comes at a critical moment when the U.S. Congress is advancing multiple pieces of crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act. With regulatory and ethical standards issues once again becoming the focus, this president’s crypto holdings disclosure has become a topic that lawmakers cannot avoid.

In summary, as the highest representatives of the executive branch, the increased transparency of Trump’s and Vance’s personal holdings is bound to add new political variables to the ethical and regulatory provisions in crypto legislation.

#President Crypto Holdings

Trader Aralez lays out Bitcoin’s next-move projections: all three scenarios point to further downside risk

On June 30, trader Aralez posted on the X platform that Bitcoin has officially broken below a key support zone.

Previously, he accurately predicted a partial top around $83,000 and warned that the price would fall below $60,000. This latest breakdown further highlights the market’s downside pressure.

Based on the current market structure, Aralez outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s subsequent走势, offering investors reference price paths under different market conditions.

Scenario 1 (July): The price rebounds from $58,000 to $70,000, then falls back again to $55,000;

Scenario 2 (September): The price drops further to $50,000, briefly rebounds to $46,000, and ultimately bottoms out around $40,000;

Scenario 3 (October): After the price falls to $45,000, it continues to trade sideways for about 45 days to form a base, then rises again to $70,000, while the precise rebound rhythm afterward remains to be confirmed.

Notably, in a chart accompanying his analysis of Bitcoin’s daily price action on the Binance exchange, he marked the current cycle’s “buy zone,” as well as two key bullish “buy trap” levels.

Do you agree with Aralez’s three scenario analyses? Which market走势 do you think is most likely to become reality? Leave your views and trading strategy in the comments!

#BitcoinPriceProjection

Trader Warns: If Bitcoin Falls Below $58,000, It May Trigger Over $1.5 Billion in Long Liquidations

Crypto analyst Alex Mason issued a warning on the X platform, saying that if Bitcoin’s price breaks below the $58,000 level, it could spark a “cruel” liquidation storm.

In more than 15 years of trading, he has never seen such massive long-side liquidity concentrated in a single price range. Once that level is breached, it is expected that over $1.5 billion in long positions will be forcibly closed, potentially triggering an unstoppable cascade.

Mason emphasized that once this liquidation begins, it will mark the formation of the market cycle’s bottom. He advises investors to buy at the “most painful” and “most brutal” moment, rather than chasing higher prices when market sentiment is optimistic.

Mason also claims that he previously predicted multiple market tops and bottoms with accuracy, including the $16,000 bottom and the $126,000 top for Bitcoin.

Notably, his remarks cite the latest event contracts from the prediction market Kalshi.

Kalshi’s prediction data shows that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 before reaching $100,000 is 76%, further confirming the current market’s pessimistic expectations.

#比特币

CryptoQuant Analyst Warns: 84% of Altcoins Break Below the 200-Day Moving Average, Recording the Deepest Drop in This Bear Market

According to a recent analysis report released by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the current altcoin market is going through the deepest sector decline of this bear cycle.

Data shows that as many as 84% of altcoin trading prices have fallen below their 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator, reflecting the overall weakness of this segment.

In terms of market performance, every attempt by altcoins to rally has ended in failure. The Total 3 index, which tracks the altcoin market capitalization excluding Ethereum, has continued to slide and has already confirmed that the closing price is below the 200-day moving average, further confirming the downward trend.

This analysis covers altcoins available for spot trading on Binance, the exchange with the largest global trading volume, making it broadly representative. Notably, this lackluster condition has persisted for nearly eight months.

Chart analysis indicates that throughout the entire cycle, altcoin price movements have remained highly correlated with Bitcoin. Most altcoins have experienced prolonged periods of price stagnation, putting investors under immense pressure.

Additionally, from the perspective of historical cycles, this is the second-worst disappointing cycle since 2020. The only comparable situation occurred in the previous bear market, when similar subdued dynamics lasted for about ten months.

Although the current data confirms the dominance of a bearish trend, Darkfost also points out that historically, such extreme periods often create mid-term investment opportunities.

However, compared with past cycles, identifying these potential entry timings today typically requires a more stringent and precise asset screening process.

#山寨币

Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF See Cumulative Net Outflows of $261 Million on Monday

On June 29, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded yesterday’s net outflows totaling $231 million, marking the 8th consecutive day of overall net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had the largest net outflow of $300 million (about 4,980 BTC), and its cumulative net inflows now stand at $60.47 billion;

Next were Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC, recording single-day net outflows of $22.95 million (380.80 BTC) and $3.94 million (65.32 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Ark&21Shares ARKB and Grayscale’s GBTC saw single-day net inflows of $49.97 million (829.18 BTC) and $35.10 million (582.49 BTC), respectively;

Next were Morgan Stanley’s MSBT and VanEck’s HODL, recording single-day net inflows of $7.26 million (120.47 BTC) and $3.83 million (63.63 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $73.19 billion, accounting for 6.05% of Bitcoin’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.37 billion.

On the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $30.04 million in total net outflows, also marking the 8th consecutive day of overall net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHB and Grayscale’s ETH recorded single-day net outflows of $37.55 million (about 23,170 ETH) and $5.72 million (about 3,530 ETH), respectively;

In contrast, BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity’s FETH, and Grayscale’s ETHE recorded single-day net inflows of $5.87 million (about 3,620 ETH), $5.25 million (about 3,240 ETH), and $2.10 million (about 1,300 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.59 billion, accounting for 4.40% of Ethereum’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $10.87 billion.

Among other U.S. spot ETFs, XRP, SOL, and HYPE recorded single-day net inflows of $15.34 million, $5.52 million, and $2.23 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

US CFTC launches broad investigation into Polymarket, probing misleading trading promotion and illegal customer acquisition

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting an extensive investigation into prediction market platform Polymarket, with the scope now extending to business segments such as its social media activities.

Earlier reports by the media disclosed that Polymarket had hired dozens of social media creators, mostly university-aged, to attract users by filming videos of purportedly false trades. The move drew attention from regulators and prompted an investigation.

In fact, Polymarket and regulators have had a long-running “feud.” Although the company reached a settlement with the CFTC in 2022 and, from a technical standpoint, banned U.S. users from using the main platform, some users have still managed to bypass the ban via VPNs.

Moreover, Polymarket has continued to proactively push forward a compliance framework, attempting to restart its U.S. domestic market business. It has actively engaged in communications with the CFTC, seeking to have the ban on U.S. users lifted and to re-establish domestic trading operations.

However, last Thursday, two senators jointly sent a letter to the CFTC urging it to initiate an investigation into Polymarket’s advertising practices, and asking whether, since its 2022 actions, the agency has taken measures to prevent Polymarket from improperly soliciting and attracting U.S. users.

Taken together, these developments suggest that while Polymarket seeks access to the U.S. market, it is facing dual scrutiny from both regulators and lawmakers. Its subsequent compliance process in the U.S. market is therefore likely to face significant uncertainty.

#CFTC #Polymarket

The housing bill containing a CBDC ban has been delivered to the White House, and Trump will sign it within 10 days or exercise a veto

On June 30, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson officially submitted to President Trump a housing bill that includes a CBDC ban through 2030. Under U.S. legislative procedure, Trump now has about 10 days to decide whether to sign, veto, or table the bill.

A core provision of the housing bill bans the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before 2030. The ban also reflects Congress’s concerns about the potential risks that digital currencies may pose to the financial system and privacy protections.

If Trump signs the bill into law, it would limit the Federal Reserve’s development in the CBDC space before 2030, becoming an important milestone for U.S. digital-currency regulation. But if he vetoes or tables it, policy space would be preserved for the Federal Reserve to continue researching CBDC.

The market is currently closely watching this housing bill: if it takes effect after being signed, it would directly halt the Federal Reserve’s CBDC development and pause related pilot projects. Such a move could also reshape the policy framework for the digital assets ecosystem in the U.S., affecting the subsequent compliance requirements for stablecoins and market entry standards.

#CBDC禁令 #住房法案

Market sentiment sinks to its lowest level since the FTX collapse, Tom Lee analyzes today’s opportunities and risks in crypto

On June 30, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine and Chief Strategist at Fundstrat, shared takeaways from his interview with Anthony Scaramucci on a social platform. He noted that, as a highly volatile asset, cryptocurrencies are currently facing multiple adverse macro headwinds.

Specifically, the market must contend with the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the stalled progress of the Clarity Act legislation, FOMO-driven sentiment sparked by the AI hype, and the impact of private credit on capital flows—among other negative factors.

Despite the challenges, Lee also highlighted the positive side of the market. For example, tokenization is becoming an industry trend; cryptocurrencies are seen as downstream beneficiaries of AI, and capital is accelerating its push into the digital space;

In addition, with market sentiment currently extremely low, signs that sell pressure may be exhausting are starting to emerge. This also suggests that the market may have reached a peak of pain, and that conditions for a potential market recovery may be in place?

Lee’s comments also serve as strong corroboration and further support for Anthony Scaramucci’s earlier assessment in a previous interview about the prevailing pessimistic mood in the market.

In his post, Scaramucci said that current crypto market sentiment has fallen to the lowest level since the FTX bankruptcy and scandal broke; the relative strength indicator RSI has hit an all-time low; Google-related search interest has also declined in tandem; and the Fear and Greed Index has fully issued dangerous signals;

Based on this market backdrop, Scaramucci invited Tom Lee to engage in a deeper discussion of the market, and Lee’s analysis further confirmed that the market is indeed in an extremely pessimistic sentiment state.

#TomLee #宏观加密分析