奔跑财经-FinaceRun

CryptoQuant: Exchange inflows are surging while SOPR continues to post losses—bitcoin market still in a risk-averse mode

On July 1, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report noting that the current sell-off pressure in the Bitcoin market is now clearly higher than during the February downturn stage, with two key on-chain indicators simultaneously reflecting a weak market backdrop.

Data show that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange inflows has climbed to 122,000 BTC. This is not only far above the annual benchmark of 82,000 BTC, but is also edging toward the upper one-standard-deviation band at 131,000 BTC.

Compared with the average level of roughly 80,000 BTC during the February sell-off period, Bitcoin’s 30-day average inflow is up by nearly 50%. This indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin is continuously flowing into exchanges, significantly intensifying market sell pressure.

At the same time, the 30-day average of Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.99 and has remained below the key break-even line of 1.0. This suggests that market participants are generally selling Bitcoin at a loss.

Since May, this indicator has been in the loss zone on 37 of 61 days. And in February, SOPR was also around 0.99, but exchange inflows were far lower than they are now.

Taken together, the analysis of these two key indicators shows that the current market is experiencing a similar degree of losses while also facing a much larger potential wave of sell orders.

Overall, this dual pressure suggests that the market is not dealing with a one-off stress event, but rather an ongoing, broad wave of sustained selling, with sentiment clearly leaning bearish.

Therefore, for the market to stabilize, it needs to meet both conditions: SOPR must rebound back above 1.0, and exchange inflows must drop back to levels above the annual benchmark, so the market trend’s fundamental shift can be confirmed.

#交易所比特币流入 #SOPR

Viewpoint: The AI reasoning market may exceed oil and become one of the world’s largest

Recently, Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, predicted in a podcast interview that AI reasoning will become one of the world’s largest markets. Its size could exceed that of oil and account for several percentage points of global GDP.

Patel believes that with each model iteration upgrade, the rate at which the number and value of tasks that can be completed expands continues to outpace the growth of compute capacity. As a result, a long-term shortage of compute may persist.

Regarding compute-demand projections, Patel expects that by 2030, the combined compute demand of only two companies—OpenAI and Anthropic—will exceed 100 gigawatts.

As for the outlook for space data centers, he thinks their impact will remain negligible in the next 3 to 5 years, but by 2040, more than half of new compute capacity may enter space.

Patel pointed out that the key constraint lies in ground-level energy costs and the ability to build new data centers. Once the economics of deploying compute in space surpass those on the ground, the migration of compute to space will become an inevitable trend.

In the area of co-design between hardware and software, Patel said that the AI efficiency improvements over the past three years have not mainly come from hardware, but from optimizations at the model layer and across layers.

For example, DeepSeek carried out targeted optimization for Nvidia’s Hopper architecture, so its performance is excellent on that chip, but it performs worse on TPUs.

By contrast, Anthropic’s models are better suited to TPUs, while OpenAI’s models are more geared toward GPU architectures.

Patel also said that the so-called “Nvidia CUDA moat” is essentially not just CUDA itself, but the result of open-source model ecosystems being widely co-optimized around GPU use.

In addition, Jensen Huang has been strongly supporting emerging cloud-computing providers. The goal is to prevent the compute market from being dominated by a small number of giants, and to promote healthy industry development and innovation vitality.

#AI推理市场规模

BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw total net outflows of $250 million on Tuesday, with no net inflows across all-category crypto ETFs that day

July 1, according to SoSovalue data: US BTC spot ETFs recorded nearly $223 million in total net outflows yesterday, marking the 9th consecutive day of net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had the largest net outflow yesterday at $212 million (about 3,630 BTC). IBIT’s cumulative net inflows now stand at $60.25 billion;

Second was Fidelity’s FBTC, which recorded a daily net outflow of $10.2 million (173.98 BTC). FBTC’s cumulative net inflows now total $10.13 billion;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $70.95 billion, accounting for 6.02% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. Cumulative total net inflows are $51.15 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $27.6 million in total net outflows as well, also marking the 9th consecutive day;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA, with $27.6 million (about 17,510 ETH), was the only Ethereum ETF to register net outflows yesterday. ETHA’s cumulative net inflows currently stand at $11.06 billion;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.33 billion, representing 4.38% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization. Cumulative total net inflows are $10.85 billion.

In other US spot ETFs, XRP, SOL, and HYPE recorded daily net outflows of $2.83 million, $2.5 million, and $3.01 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #Ethereum ETF

SEC Seeks Public Comment on “New ETF” Regulatory Rules, Covering Crypto-Asset Funds and Prediction Market Funds

On June 30, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it is seeking public input on whether and how to regulate “new ETFs” and whether its existing registration processes need to be adjusted.

The focus of this consultation draft is how to promote innovation in the ETF sector while protecting investors, maintaining a fair, orderly, and efficient market, and encouraging capital formation.

In a statement, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the comment solicitation will widely draw in suggestions from market participants to explore pathways for the sustainable growth and innovative development of the ETF market, so that we can assess how to adapt to changes in today’s market landscape.

Brian Daly, head of the SEC’s Division of Investment Management, added that ETF assets have expanded from $4 trillion in April 2019 to more than $12 trillion by the end of 2025, with various new product types continuously emerging. Public feedback is crucial for refining long-term industry development rules.

This comment solicitation primarily focuses on three areas: whether new ETFs should be brought within the regulatory framework for investment companies; how to optimize supporting rules for innovative ETFs; and how much room there is to improve the registration process for listing new products.

Separately, market observers predict that this request for comments may lead the SEC, starting in 2027, to allow a wider range of ETF types, including funds based on event contracts, crypto-assets, and single-stock strategies.

Notably, the public comment period for these regulatory rules is 60 days, counted formally from the date the relevant documents are published in the Federal Register.

During this time, market participants, industry institutions, and other stakeholders may submit written comments on the regulatory framework for new ETFs to provide reference for the SEC’s policy-making.

#ETF监管规则

The crypto industry has already投入 189 million USD into the 2026 U.S. election cycle, exceeding the total amount spent on political donations by the entire 2024 election cycle

According to the latest report released by U.S. consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, the cryptocurrency industry has contributed 189 million USD to the 2026 U.S. election cycle, accounting for approximately 37% of all企业 political contributions during this cycle.

Although more than four months remain until the November U.S. general election, the combined spending of these political donations has already surpassed the total 170 million USD that the crypto industry donated throughout the entire 2024 election cycle.

This trend not only reflects the growing influence of the crypto industry in the U.S. political landscape, but also suggests that in the coming months, the industry’s investment in and attention to the election may continue to rise.

In terms of specific spending, the pro-cryptocurrency political action committee Fairshake has spent more than 82 million USD, while the MAGA Inc. super PAC backed by Crypto.com has spent more than 56 million USD.

Public Citizen criticized in its report that these super PACs put crypto interests first, with strategies that override political parties and candidates as they intervene in both parties’ primaries and selectively support or attack major candidates in the general election.

Notably, Fairshake and its affiliated organizations Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress are backed by cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase and Ripple. As of the January report, they had accumulated a funding reserve of 193 million USD.

Since 2024, other entities aligned with industry interests have also received contributions—for example, Fellowship PAC under Cantor Fitzgerald has received 11 million USD to date and pledged to spend at least 100 million USD in the election.

Overall, the crypto industry is deeply involved in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections with an unprecedented scale of funding, seeking to shape the Congressional landscape in its favor through the power of the industry.

#政治捐款 #美国中期选举

US President Encryption Holdings Disclosure: Trump Net Liquidated Over $1 Billion From TRUMP Tokens, While Vance Holds Up to $500,000 in Bitcoin

According to the latest U.S. government disclosure of the president’s annual financial filings, Trump received $635 million from TRUMP Meme Coin through authorization and revenue-sharing arrangements.

According to analysts’ monitoring, when adding all aspects along the entire chain—such as issuance, marketing, and cash-out—their net cash-out from the token is at least over $1 billion.

In addition, Trump personally also holds about $100 million in cryptocurrencies. This includes more than $50 million in BTC, $5 million to $25 million in ETH, and $5 million to $25 million in USDC.

Meanwhile, U.S. Vice President JD Vance, in his latest financial disclosure, reported holding $250,000 to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin. A series of further disclosures also highlight that crypto assets are gradually becoming a normal asset-allocation category among top U.S. government officials.

This disclosure comes at a critical moment when the U.S. Congress is advancing multiple pieces of crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act. With regulatory and ethical standards issues once again becoming the focus, this president’s crypto holdings disclosure has become a topic that lawmakers cannot avoid.

In summary, as the highest representatives of the executive branch, the increased transparency of Trump’s and Vance’s personal holdings is bound to add new political variables to the ethical and regulatory provisions in crypto legislation.

#President Crypto Holdings

Trader Aralez lays out Bitcoin’s next-move projections: all three scenarios point to further downside risk

On June 30, trader Aralez posted on the X platform that Bitcoin has officially broken below a key support zone.

Previously, he accurately predicted a partial top around $83,000 and warned that the price would fall below $60,000. This latest breakdown further highlights the market’s downside pressure.

Based on the current market structure, Aralez outlined three possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s subsequent走势, offering investors reference price paths under different market conditions.

Scenario 1 (July): The price rebounds from $58,000 to $70,000, then falls back again to $55,000;

Scenario 2 (September): The price drops further to $50,000, briefly rebounds to $46,000, and ultimately bottoms out around $40,000;

Scenario 3 (October): After the price falls to $45,000, it continues to trade sideways for about 45 days to form a base, then rises again to $70,000, while the precise rebound rhythm afterward remains to be confirmed.

Notably, in a chart accompanying his analysis of Bitcoin’s daily price action on the Binance exchange, he marked the current cycle’s “buy zone,” as well as two key bullish “buy trap” levels.

Do you agree with Aralez’s three scenario analyses? Which market走势 do you think is most likely to become reality? Leave your views and trading strategy in the comments!

#BitcoinPriceProjection

Trader Warns: If Bitcoin Falls Below $58,000, It May Trigger Over $1.5 Billion in Long Liquidations

Crypto analyst Alex Mason issued a warning on the X platform, saying that if Bitcoin’s price breaks below the $58,000 level, it could spark a “cruel” liquidation storm.

In more than 15 years of trading, he has never seen such massive long-side liquidity concentrated in a single price range. Once that level is breached, it is expected that over $1.5 billion in long positions will be forcibly closed, potentially triggering an unstoppable cascade.

Mason emphasized that once this liquidation begins, it will mark the formation of the market cycle’s bottom. He advises investors to buy at the “most painful” and “most brutal” moment, rather than chasing higher prices when market sentiment is optimistic.

Mason also claims that he previously predicted multiple market tops and bottoms with accuracy, including the $16,000 bottom and the $126,000 top for Bitcoin.

Notably, his remarks cite the latest event contracts from the prediction market Kalshi.

Kalshi’s prediction data shows that the probability of Bitcoin dropping to $50,000 before reaching $100,000 is 76%, further confirming the current market’s pessimistic expectations.

#比特币

CryptoQuant Analyst Warns: 84% of Altcoins Break Below the 200-Day Moving Average, Recording the Deepest Drop in This Bear Market

According to a recent analysis report released by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the current altcoin market is going through the deepest sector decline of this bear cycle.

Data shows that as many as 84% of altcoin trading prices have fallen below their 200-day moving average, a key technical indicator, reflecting the overall weakness of this segment.

In terms of market performance, every attempt by altcoins to rally has ended in failure. The Total 3 index, which tracks the altcoin market capitalization excluding Ethereum, has continued to slide and has already confirmed that the closing price is below the 200-day moving average, further confirming the downward trend.

This analysis covers altcoins available for spot trading on Binance, the exchange with the largest global trading volume, making it broadly representative. Notably, this lackluster condition has persisted for nearly eight months.

Chart analysis indicates that throughout the entire cycle, altcoin price movements have remained highly correlated with Bitcoin. Most altcoins have experienced prolonged periods of price stagnation, putting investors under immense pressure.

Additionally, from the perspective of historical cycles, this is the second-worst disappointing cycle since 2020. The only comparable situation occurred in the previous bear market, when similar subdued dynamics lasted for about ten months.

Although the current data confirms the dominance of a bearish trend, Darkfost also points out that historically, such extreme periods often create mid-term investment opportunities.

However, compared with past cycles, identifying these potential entry timings today typically requires a more stringent and precise asset screening process.

#山寨币

Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETF See Cumulative Net Outflows of $261 Million on Monday

On June 29, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded yesterday’s net outflows totaling $231 million, marking the 8th consecutive day of overall net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had the largest net outflow of $300 million (about 4,980 BTC), and its cumulative net inflows now stand at $60.47 billion;

Next were Grayscale’s GBTC and Fidelity’s FBTC, recording single-day net outflows of $22.95 million (380.80 BTC) and $3.94 million (65.32 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Ark&21Shares ARKB and Grayscale’s GBTC saw single-day net inflows of $49.97 million (829.18 BTC) and $35.10 million (582.49 BTC), respectively;

Next were Morgan Stanley’s MSBT and VanEck’s HODL, recording single-day net inflows of $7.26 million (120.47 BTC) and $3.83 million (63.63 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $73.19 billion, accounting for 6.05% of Bitcoin’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.37 billion.

On the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $30.04 million in total net outflows, also marking the 8th consecutive day of overall net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHB and Grayscale’s ETH recorded single-day net outflows of $37.55 million (about 23,170 ETH) and $5.72 million (about 3,530 ETH), respectively;

In contrast, BlackRock’s ETHA, Fidelity’s FETH, and Grayscale’s ETHE recorded single-day net inflows of $5.87 million (about 3,620 ETH), $5.25 million (about 3,240 ETH), and $2.10 million (about 1,300 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.59 billion, accounting for 4.40% of Ethereum’s total market value, with cumulative total net inflows of $10.87 billion.

Among other U.S. spot ETFs, XRP, SOL, and HYPE recorded single-day net inflows of $15.34 million, $5.52 million, and $2.23 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

US CFTC launches broad investigation into Polymarket, probing misleading trading promotion and illegal customer acquisition

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting an extensive investigation into prediction market platform Polymarket, with the scope now extending to business segments such as its social media activities.

Earlier reports by the media disclosed that Polymarket had hired dozens of social media creators, mostly university-aged, to attract users by filming videos of purportedly false trades. The move drew attention from regulators and prompted an investigation.

In fact, Polymarket and regulators have had a long-running “feud.” Although the company reached a settlement with the CFTC in 2022 and, from a technical standpoint, banned U.S. users from using the main platform, some users have still managed to bypass the ban via VPNs.

Moreover, Polymarket has continued to proactively push forward a compliance framework, attempting to restart its U.S. domestic market business. It has actively engaged in communications with the CFTC, seeking to have the ban on U.S. users lifted and to re-establish domestic trading operations.

However, last Thursday, two senators jointly sent a letter to the CFTC urging it to initiate an investigation into Polymarket’s advertising practices, and asking whether, since its 2022 actions, the agency has taken measures to prevent Polymarket from improperly soliciting and attracting U.S. users.

Taken together, these developments suggest that while Polymarket seeks access to the U.S. market, it is facing dual scrutiny from both regulators and lawmakers. Its subsequent compliance process in the U.S. market is therefore likely to face significant uncertainty.

#CFTC #Polymarket

The housing bill containing a CBDC ban has been delivered to the White House, and Trump will sign it within 10 days or exercise a veto

On June 30, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson officially submitted to President Trump a housing bill that includes a CBDC ban through 2030. Under U.S. legislative procedure, Trump now has about 10 days to decide whether to sign, veto, or table the bill.

A core provision of the housing bill bans the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) before 2030. The ban also reflects Congress’s concerns about the potential risks that digital currencies may pose to the financial system and privacy protections.

If Trump signs the bill into law, it would limit the Federal Reserve’s development in the CBDC space before 2030, becoming an important milestone for U.S. digital-currency regulation. But if he vetoes or tables it, policy space would be preserved for the Federal Reserve to continue researching CBDC.

The market is currently closely watching this housing bill: if it takes effect after being signed, it would directly halt the Federal Reserve’s CBDC development and pause related pilot projects. Such a move could also reshape the policy framework for the digital assets ecosystem in the U.S., affecting the subsequent compliance requirements for stablecoins and market entry standards.

#CBDC禁令 #住房法案

Market sentiment sinks to its lowest level since the FTX collapse, Tom Lee analyzes today’s opportunities and risks in crypto

On June 30, Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine and Chief Strategist at Fundstrat, shared takeaways from his interview with Anthony Scaramucci on a social platform. He noted that, as a highly volatile asset, cryptocurrencies are currently facing multiple adverse macro headwinds.

Specifically, the market must contend with the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, the stalled progress of the Clarity Act legislation, FOMO-driven sentiment sparked by the AI hype, and the impact of private credit on capital flows—among other negative factors.

Despite the challenges, Lee also highlighted the positive side of the market. For example, tokenization is becoming an industry trend; cryptocurrencies are seen as downstream beneficiaries of AI, and capital is accelerating its push into the digital space;

In addition, with market sentiment currently extremely low, signs that sell pressure may be exhausting are starting to emerge. This also suggests that the market may have reached a peak of pain, and that conditions for a potential market recovery may be in place?

Lee’s comments also serve as strong corroboration and further support for Anthony Scaramucci’s earlier assessment in a previous interview about the prevailing pessimistic mood in the market.

In his post, Scaramucci said that current crypto market sentiment has fallen to the lowest level since the FTX bankruptcy and scandal broke; the relative strength indicator RSI has hit an all-time low; Google-related search interest has also declined in tandem; and the Fear and Greed Index has fully issued dangerous signals;

Based on this market backdrop, Scaramucci invited Tom Lee to engage in a deeper discussion of the market, and Lee’s analysis further confirmed that the market is indeed in an extremely pessimistic sentiment state.

#TomLee #宏观加密分析

Glassnode co-founder: Weak institutional demand further exacerbates Bitcoin circulating supply, with significant selling pressure

On June 29, Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, published on a social platform an on-chain capital monitoring chart showing that current institutional funds have not absorbed the spot circulating supply of newly issued bitcoins into the market; instead, they further intensified the existing selling pressure.

Data shows that over the past 30 days, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a cumulative net outflow of 71,600 BTC, while digital asset trust (DAT) products saw a net inflow of 7,500 BTC in the same period, indicating that the fund flows for these two major institutional product types are on a clearly significant scale.

Meanwhile, after factoring in the additional market selling pressure brought by daily Bitcoin mined gains, the combined estimate as of June 29 shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs and digital asset trusts (DAT) together had a total net outflow of 77,228 BTC over the past 30 days.

Analysts noted that this data suggests institutional demand has failed to effectively absorb the newly added Bitcoin supply, instead worsening the pressure from market oversupply.

Rafael said in his assessment that before this combined capital indicator turns from negative to positive, each rebound cycle in Bitcoin’s price needs to continuously battle the overall net selling pressure coming from institutional channels, which may place downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Overall, the upward resistance in the crypto market is currently significantly high. Investors should closely monitor changes in ETF and DAT fund flows to gauge the state of market supply and demand balance.

#机构需求 #BTC

Galaxy Digital Research Note: The Senate calendar is tight, and the probability of the <CLARITY> Act passing is 50%

Recently, Galaxy Digital’s research team has lowered its probability forecast for the <CLARITY> Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% three weeks ago to 50%. The main reasons are the shrinking time remaining before Congress adjourns in August and the continued rise in legislative uncertainty.

The bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, with a vote of 15 in favor and 9 against. Since then, it has remained on the Senate legislative calendar at item 423, but the full-Senate voting time has not yet been determined.

Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn believes that, to hold a July vote, majority leader John Thune must announce the relevant schedule no later than early July; otherwise, consideration would be pushed to September, when complex political variables could arise due to the approaching midterm elections.

Currently, the Senate agenda is being crowded out by multiple high-priority bills. This includes the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702, which expired on June 12 and needs to be reauthorized; in addition, the FY2027 Defense Authorization Act has not yet been completed.

Meanwhile, last week Trump canceled signing a bipartisan-supported housing bill, saying Congress must first pass the SAVE Act (the “Citizenship Identification Act”). This further exacerbates agenda conflicts and squeezes the room for consideration of crypto-related bills.

In addition, a moral-standards amendment in the bill targeting conflicts of interest among officials was rejected in committee by a vote of 11 to 13. This means defections from Democratic lawmakers’ support are now indispensable.

At present, Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have tied their support to enforceable moral standards; meanwhile, some lawmakers are also pushing to modify the developer-protection provisions in the <Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act> (BRCA).

Thorn said that if, within the next two weeks, a merged-text agreement can be reached, the moral and BRCA disputes can be resolved, and leadership can be secured with voting commitments, the probability of passage in 2026 could recover to 60% or higher. If there is continued lack of progress, the probability will fall further.

#CLARITY Act

$2.9 trillion sovereign wealth funds are making a big shift: energy assets are highly favored, and 60% of central banks worry about challenges to the U.S. dollar’s status

According to a recent survey by financial firm Invesco, sovereign wealth funds and central banks managing $2.9 trillion in assets are accelerating their shift toward energy and real-asset investments to address challenges brought by geopolitical uncertainty.

The survey covers 90 sovereign wealth funds and 54 central banks. The results show that 80% of respondents view energy security and energy-transition infrastructure as the most reliable direction for strengthening portfolio resilience;

Notably, these sovereign wealth funds and central banks, in terms of their infrastructure-type assets held in 2026, have already reached a 9% share of their total assets. Meanwhile, the high energy-demand driven by AI further boosts the appeal of energy-related assets.

At the same time, the dollar’s international standing has also drawn widespread market attention. The survey indicates that 61% of surveyed central banks believe that the United States’ current debt level is having a negative impact on the long-term position of the dollar as a reserve currency.

Against the backdrop of inflation shocks, geopolitical fragmentation, and steadily increasing market concentration, these sovereign investors are gradually adjusting their traditional diversified investment strategies, moving toward portfolio designs capable of withstanding a wider range of risk outcomes.

Specifically, some institutions have begun to reduce reliance on U.S. custodians and clearing systems. For example, one European central bank has already completed a switch to a non-U.S. custodian, while another central bank in Latin America is also building non-U.S. custodian cooperation arrangements to handle extreme scenarios.

In addition, about one-third of the surveyed institutions plan to increase their gold reserves. Invesco’s head of research noted that industry resilience has become a hard requirement for investment rather than a bonus option.

And in recent years, the weakening positive correlation between bonds and stocks has eroded the defensive characteristics of traditional portfolios, prompting investors to focus more on asset liquidity and to increase allocations to real assets.

In summary, amid multiple uncertainties—such as escalating trade barriers, disrupted key shipping corridors, and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—global sovereign investors are turning to safer, more risk-resilient asset allocations. This is a pragmatic strategic adjustment they are making to deal with a complex external environment.

#主权财富基金 #资产配置

U.S. House Speaker: The Housing Bill Including a CBDC Ban Will Be Sent to Trump for Signature on Monday

On June 29, Cointelegraph reported that U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced that a bipartisan housing bill, which includes a temporary ban on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), will be sent to President Trump for signature and become law on Monday.

The bill has already passed with overwhelming support in both the House and the Senate. Under the CBDC ban provision in the bill, the ban would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar or any digital assets substantially similar to it before the end of 2030;

This provision not only effectively prevents the risk of excessive government monitoring through digital currency, but also provides important legal protection for maintaining individuals’ financial privacy.

Earlier on June 24, Trump had refused to sign this bipartisan housing bill that includes a CBDC ban, and temporarily canceled the previously scheduled signing ceremony.

What’s more, Trump also asked Congress to first pass the election bill he championed, the “SAVE AMERICA ACT,” before considering signing the housing bill.

Trump’s move has also been interpreted by observers as a strategy to pressure Congress. This kind of “power play” political maneuvering once cast a shadow over the outlook for a CBDC ban and raised concerns in the crypto industry about policy continuity.

Finally, do you think the housing bill including a CBDC ban will be signed into law by the president this Monday? What political considerations are reflected behind this series of policies? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#住房法案 #CBDC禁令

Analysis: Bitcoin has completed its final big sell-off; July-August may be the best time to buy the dip

On June 29, JackYi (Yi Lihua), founder of Liquid Capital, posted that Bitcoin is currently experiencing the third wave of decline since October 11. If the wave theory and cyclical patterns hold, this round of sell-off may be the final big drop.

JackYi believes that the performance of the US stock market and Strategy’s market developments, as well as whether concerns about the CPI from the Federal Reserve trigger changes in expectations for rate cuts or even rate hikes, will be key factors in determining whether the US stock market can continue to pull back.

Notably, in past bear markets, the bottom phase often features “black swan” or “major blow-up” events to complete the full release of risk. But this time, such events have not yet occurred, so it is worth continuously monitoring closely.

If we follow historical patterns, based on Bitcoin’s all-time high of $1.26 million, a 60% drop in this round would correspond to a Bitcoin price of about $510,000; a 66% drop would correspond to about $430,000.

In the final analysis, regardless of how severe the decline is, July to August may become the last time window for BTC’s current downturn—and also the best opportunity to buy the dip. It may even become an important chance worth acting on over the next three years.

What do you think? Do you agree with JackYi’s outlook and prediction on Bitcoin’s bottom? Feel free to leave your views and investment strategy in the comments section.

#比特币 #Market Viewpoints

CZ Urges the U.S. to Seize Opportunities and Position Itself as the “Cryptocurrency Capital”

Earlier this month, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said in a CoinDesk interview that he hopes the U.S. can build itself into the world’s “cryptocurrency capital.”

Although he was sentenced to four months in prison in 2024 for violating the Bank Secrecy Act, he has recently returned to the U.S. in a low-profile manner. Nevertheless, he remains a major shareholder of both Binance and Binance.US, and continues to wield significant influence in the industry.

In the interview, CZ analyzed the causes of the 2026 crypto bear market, including capital flows into the artificial intelligence sector, geopolitical events, and market cycles that occur once every four years, among other factors.

Regarding the Binance.US platform, which he controls, CZ said he wants it to leverage the liquidity of Binance’s global platform in order to strengthen the overall capabilities of the U.S. market.

On his stance in Washington, CZ said his goal is to clarify what he described as “misunderstandings” about him and Binance in the public eye, and he acknowledged that his guilty plea for violating the Bank Secrecy Act did not damage his reputation.

However, he made it clear that he does not want to run a cryptocurrency exchange again, and instead prefers to provide guidance to other investing companies in an informal advisory capacity.

Overall, the U.S. has a mature financial system, strong technical innovation capabilities, and a regulatory framework foundation, which means it is fully capable of becoming the global hub of the cryptocurrency industry.

If the country can adopt a more friendly and clear regulatory approach, it will significantly attract global crypto talent, capital, and projects to cluster there, reinforcing its leading position in the digital asset space.

But for now, the crypto industry still faces multiple challenges, including regulatory uncertainty. Therefore, a clear and stable policy environment is the key to driving the long-term healthy development of the crypto industry.

#CZ

BIS Annual Report: Stablecoins do not have the attributes of a general-purpose currency, which may weaken countries' monetary sovereignty

On June 28, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) stated in its 2026 Annual Economic Report that stablecoins have shortcomings across four core dimensions—single-asset concentration, resilience, interoperability, and integrity—and therefore do not yet possess the fundamental attributes of a qualified currency.

The report noted that in secondary markets, stablecoin prices often deviate from the pegged exchange rates, and that redemption processes involve friction; in essence, stablecoins resemble ETF-style financial products more than payment instruments.

As of the end of May, the total global market capitalization of stablecoins was about USD 320 billion. More than 99% of stablecoins are fiat-collateralized and pegged to the U.S. dollar, and the market is highly concentrated in two major tokens: USDT and USDC.

Using model-based assessments, the report suggests that even if the overall stablecoin size expands to between USD 1 trillion and USD 3 trillion, large-scale adoption would have only a negligible effect on total economic output. It would also raise bank funding costs and compress credit lending, potentially weighing on the economy slightly in the medium to long term.

The report also highlights multiple potential risks: since stablecoins circulate on permissionless blockchains, anonymous or pseudonymous wallets weaken KYC and anti–money laundering controls, and a large volume of illegal on-chain transactions relies on stablecoins.

Even more concerning is the phenomenon of “dollarization of stablecoins.” Residents in emerging markets hold large amounts of dollar-pegged stablecoins to preserve value, which would reshape cross-border capital flows and erode monetary sovereignty.

To address the various deficiencies of stablecoins, BIS once again proposes alternative pathways. It advocates building a tokenized “unified ledger” system anchored in central bank money, integrating tokenized central bank reserves, tokenized money issued by commercial banks, and compliant private digital assets onto a single platform.

Moreover, BIS cites the Agora cross-border payments project—jointly implemented by eight central banks and more than 40 private institutions—to demonstrate that this model is feasible in practice.

The report recommends that globally unified regulatory rules be established to regulate the stablecoin market, and that tokenization reforms be advanced through a dual-layer financial system composed of central banks and commercial banks, so as to balance financial innovation with safeguards against systemic risk.

Overall, BIS warns that stablecoins may trigger “stablecoin dollarization” in emerging economies and weaken monetary sovereignty. Therefore, it recommends solving the current problems through internationally unified rules and the “unified ledger” model.

#Stablecoins