奔跑财经-FinaceRun

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, with Powell signaling a shift to a 'wait-and-see' strategy.

On December 10 local time, the Federal Reserve announced another rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut following those in September and October, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points.

However, this decision was accompanied by significant internal dissent, with three members casting dissenting votes, the first occurrence since September 2019, highlighting notable divisions within the committee regarding the future policy path.

At the press conference following the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a key speech, interpreted by the market as a signal shifting his policy stance from 'preset path' to 'flexible wait-and-see'.

He emphasized that the current interest rate is 'in a good position' to respond to changes in the economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve is now 'also in a favorable position to wait and observe further developments in the economy'.

Crucially, Powell also stated that 'no one currently expects interest rate hikes as the basic expectation,' and he did not provide any guidance on whether there would be another rate cut in the near future.

He reiterated that 'monetary policy is not a predetermined fixed route,' and future decisions will be 'made gradually based on the circumstances of each meeting'.

Meanwhile, the 'dot plot' reflecting the long-term interest rate forecasts of Federal Reserve officials indicates that the policy path is expected to become very flat. According to the chart, only one rate cut is predicted in 2026, followed by another in 2027, ultimately reaching a long-term target of about 3%, consistent with the September forecast.

This relatively flat long-term interest rate 'dot plot' guidance, combined with Powell's emphasized 'wait-and-see' strategy, seems to convey a consensus to the market that the most intense phase of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be nearing its end, with future policy adjustments likely to be more tentative, more data-dependent, and the pace noticeably slowing.

In simple terms, from a short-term perspective, the market exhibits relatively optimistic sentiment due to the exclusion of rate hikes; however, from a medium-term viewpoint, the market needs to gradually adjust to maintaining a relatively high interest rate environment over a longer period.

#美联储利率决议 #鲍威尔

The U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of nearly 583 million USD on Monday.

On December 16, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded its first day of net outflow this week, with nearly 358 million USD in total outflow yesterday. None of the 12 BTC ETFs saw any net inflow yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC had the highest net outflow yesterday at 230 million USD (approximately 2,680 BTC), and currently, FBTC has a cumulative net inflow of 11.94 billion USD;

Next is Bitwise BITB and Ark 21Shares ARKB, which recorded net outflows of 44.32 million USD (516.27 BTC) and 34.49 million USD (401.78 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Grayscale's GBTC and VanEck HODL recorded single-day net outflows of 27.51 million USD (320.40 BTC) and 21.25 million USD (247.47 BTC) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 112.27 billion USD, accounting for 6.56% of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a cumulative net inflow of 57.55 billion USD.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded nearly 225 million USD, also experiencing a total net outflow for three consecutive days.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had the highest net outflow yesterday at 139 million USD (approximately 47,460 ETH), and currently, ETHA has a cumulative net inflow of 13.09 billion USD;

Next, Grayscale's ETHE and ETH recorded single-day net outflows of 35.1 million USD (approximately 11,980 ETH) and 20.18 million USD (approximately 6,890 ETH) respectively;

Bitwise ETHW, Fidelity's FETH, and VanEck ETHV recorded net outflows of 13.01 million USD (approximately 4,440 ETH), 10.96 million USD (approximately 3,740 ETH), and 6.43 million USD (approximately 2,190 ETH) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 18.27 billion USD, accounting for 5.17% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum, with a cumulative net inflow of 12.86 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Warning! North Korean hackers are using fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to steal acquaintances' accounts and carry out large-scale fraud.

Recently, the cybersecurity company Security Alliance (SEAL) and researchers issued a warning that North Korean hackers are exploiting fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to spread malware in order to steal victims' cryptocurrency wallet private keys, mnemonics, various passwords, cloud credentials, and Telegram accounts.

Currently, the agency is tracking associated threat actors who attempt multiple times daily to use fake Zoom/Teams meeting links to spread malware and expand access to new victims, resulting in over $300 million in financial losses.

Analysis indicates that the hackers' attack entry points are highly deceptive. They first completely take control of the victim's acquaintance's Telegram account and then use that account to send messages to the victim.

Once the victim enters the meeting, the hacker plays pre-obtained real video to fabricate the appearance of participants, and then uses excuses such as "audio issues" and "software updates" to induce the victim to download a malicious file disguised as "Zoom SDK update."

Once this file is installed, it will immediately invade the device, stealing the victim's cryptocurrency wallet private keys, various account passwords, cloud service login information, and even directly take over the entire Telegram account, capturing all its digital assets and permissions.

It is worth noting that this type of scam, which induces downloads through fake meetings, closely matches the modus operandi of the North Korean-backed Lazarus hacker organization.

Security experts particularly emphasize that these highly customized social engineering attacks often bypass conventional technical defenses, and personal vigilance is the last line of defense.

Moreover, industry leaders, including the founder of Binance, have issued related warnings over the past year, indicating that such attacks have become a systemic threat to the cryptocurrency industry.

Overall, if users accidentally click on a suspicious link, they should immediately initiate the highest level of response measures, disconnect from the network, and shut down and isolate the infected device;

Then, they should immediately transfer funds through other secure devices, batch change all account passwords; and absolutely do not use the device again before completely reinstalling the system to prevent further losses.

#网络安全 #朝鲜黑客

Grayscale Report: Quantum Computing Threats are Misleading the Cryptocurrency Market, Quantum Attacks Difficult to Crack Bitcoin Before 2030

According to Grayscale's latest report titled "2026 Digital Asset Outlook", there is widespread concern in the market that quantum computing could pose a threat to the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, but this concern is actually misleading.

The report points out that while there is indeed a long-term threat from quantum computing from a cryptographic perspective, the likelihood of this technology having a substantive impact on the cryptocurrency market or affecting asset valuations by 2026 is extremely low.

According to Grayscale analysts citing assessments from several authoritative institutions, including the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), quantum computers capable of breaking the elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin are not expected to emerge until around 2030 at the earliest. However, this timeline far exceeds the market's usual pricing cycle, thereby alleviating concerns about the imminent threat of quantum computing to the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Moreover, the report acknowledges that research, testing, and preparations for post-quantum cryptography are ongoing. It is expected that most blockchain networks will need to undergo corresponding upgrades in response to long-term challenges. However, these upgrades belong to a long-term technological evolution path rather than an immediate market risk.

The conclusion of this report aligns with the views of many developers in the fields of cryptography and blockchain, namely that while quantum computers possess the capability to undermine cryptography, this threat is still a topic of "years away" rather than an "immediate" threat. Grayscale's statement also alleviates the concerns of the investor community served by its large cryptocurrency asset management business.

In summary, Grayscale's report defines quantum risks as an important long-term technical issue rather than a short-term market variable. This positioning aims to guide the market to focus on macro liquidity, regulatory progress, and application implementation—factors that are more likely to influence price trends in 2026. This perspective also provides investors with a comprehensive and balanced view for assessing future trends in the cryptocurrency market.

#灰度 #量子计算

Digital asset ETP saw a total net inflow of $864 million last week, but capital flows displayed an uneven characteristic.

According to Coinshares weekly report, global digital asset investment products have recorded net inflows for the third consecutive week, totaling $864 million, reflecting that while market sentiment remains cautious, optimism is steadily accumulating.

Meanwhile, despite the Federal Reserve recently initiating interest rate cuts, market performance remains sluggish. In the days following the rate cuts, market sentiment has fluctuated significantly, and capital flows have shown a clear uneven characteristic.

In terms of asset classes, Bitcoin remains the primary target for inflows, with $522 million flowing in last week. However, there has been a continuous small outflow in short-selling Bitcoin, indicating that market pessimistic bets are decreasing.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin's year-to-date (YTD) inflow amounts to about $27.7 billion, while it is expected to reach $41 billion in 2024, indicating that Bitcoin's market performance this year is still relatively lagging.

Ethereum recorded an inflow of $338 million last week, bringing its YTD inflow to $13.3 billion, a 148% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Meanwhile, Solana's YTD inflow stands at $3.5 billion, which is still ten times higher than the same period in 2024.

In stark contrast, Hyperliquid showed a significant outflow of $14.1 million, indicating that the selective divergence of capital among different projects is also increasing.

From a national regional distribution perspective, the U.S. market sentiment is the strongest, with inflows reaching $796 million last week, while Germany and Canada saw inflows of $68.6 million and $26.8 million, respectively.

Notably, these three countries have been the main sources of inflows this year, accounting for 98.6% of the total inflow amount year-to-date (YTD).

In summary, from a macro perspective, although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, the market price reaction has been weak, showing that capital's response to favorable policies has become more rational;

However, from the asset class perspective, capital is being allocated with a clearer and more selective logic, continuously flowing towards core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as a few fundamentally strong altcoins.

Additionally, the continuous inflow over three weeks indicates that market confidence is gradually recovering and building a more solid and differentiated bottom foundation after a long period of stagnation.

#加密货币ETP #投资趋势

The key index for small-cap crypto tokens has fallen to a four-year low, completely shattering the myth of the 'altcoin season' cycle?

According to MarketVector DA, which tracks the 50 smallest crypto tokens in a portfolio of 100 assets, this index has fallen to its lowest point in four years as of November 2025, directly declaring the long-awaited 'altcoin season' in the market has completely shattered.

In contrast, Bitcoin's market dominance (i.e., its market cap as a proportion of the total crypto market value) has risen to nearly 59%, approaching its highest level since April 2022.

This stark contrast clearly reveals the core characteristic of the current cryptocurrency market: funds are continuously fleeing from high-risk small projects and accelerating towards other 'core assets,' including BTC, which is often referred to as 'digital gold.'

The reason for this situation is primarily due to the systematic depletion of market liquidity in the current macro environment, combined with the approaching Christmas and New Year, leading to a decrease in overall activity in global financial markets.

In such a macro environment, the highest-risk and least liquid small-cap tokens have become the primary reason for investors to reduce holdings in favor of investments with better liquidity.

Secondly, the narrative-driven logic of the entire crypto market has undergone a fundamental shift. In the past few cycles, altcoins leveraged the external narrative of 'Bitcoin treasury companies' to achieve a correlation between stock prices and token prices. However, the business models of such companies are now facing widespread skepticism, compounded by the recent halving of stock prices, rendering this key external catalyst completely ineffective.

Overall, the market is transitioning from a speculative boom phase driven by excessive liquidity and a single grand narrative to a new development stage dominated by macro liquidity conditions, project fundamentals, and genuine usage demand.

For altcoins, this deep market correction is essentially a brutal market clearing, as it not only washes away speculative targets lacking value support but also squeezes out market speculation bubbles.

Although this process is filled with growing pains, it clears the way for the next cycle of truly innovative projects with technological barriers, real application demands, and commercial value, re-establishing the foundation for the healthy development of the crypto market.

#山寨币季

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% this week, reaching the highest level in nearly 30 years since 1995.

According to the latest report by the Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (central bank) is most likely to announce a plan to raise the policy interest rate from the current 0.5% to 0.75% during the monetary policy decision meeting scheduled for December 18 to 19.

If this interest rate hike materializes, it will be the first increase by the Bank of Japan since January 2025, and it also means that the policy interest rate will reach the highest level in nearly thirty years since 1995.

Unlike previous decisions, there is a strong consensus within the government regarding this interest rate hike. First, officials, including Governor Ueda Kazuo, have signaled a potential rate increase;

Secondly, surveys show that more than half of the nine policy members support it, with no one publicly opposing it; this series of consensus also confirms the general acceptance of this move by the country's government.

It is worth noting that prior market concerns about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy are now generally considered to have less impact than expected, which has cleared a major obstacle for the central bank to restart interest rate hikes.

In addition, the central bank's optimistic view on wage growth prospects for 2026 also provides solid support for the continued rebound in inflation.

This potential interest rate hike is mainly driven by the long-term weakness of the yen (the current yen to dollar exchange rate is around 155), leading to rising import prices and inflationary pressures. This move is also seen as an effective means by the country's central bank to curb the continued depreciation of the yen and alleviate inflation by narrowing the interest rate gap with the U.S.

However, analysts generally believe that, given that the interest rate hike signals have been fully digested by the market, unless there are unexpected developments in the decision, the risk of this move triggering significant market turbulence is low.

Currently, the market focus has completely shifted to the statements of Governor Ueda Kazuo regarding the future policy path after the interest rate hike. Investors will also closely watch his remarks on the pace of subsequent rate hikes and the final interest rate target.

Overall, the potential interest rate hike indicated by the Governor of the Bank of Japan marks a shift in Japan's monetary policy focus from economic stimulus to combating inflation and maintaining exchange rate stability, and the far-reaching impact of this policy on global capital flows and financial market asset pricing is self-evident.

#日本央行 #日元加息

Last week, the U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs saw a combined net inflow of nearly $496 million.

According to SoSoValue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $287 million last week, marking the first week of net capital inflow this month;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net inflow list last week with $214 million, currently accumulating a total inflow of $62.73 billion;

Next were Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Grayscale's BTC, which recorded net inflows of $84.47 million, $24.66 million, and $22.82 million last week, respectively;

Franklin Templeton's EZBC, Invesco Galaxy's BTCO, and WisdomTree's BTCW had weekly net inflows of $8.09 million, $6.50 million, and $0.9871 million, respectively;

It is worth noting that Grayscale's GBTC, VanEck's HODL, and ARK 21Shares' ARKB saw net outflows of $38.76 million, $25.14 million, and $11.12 million last week, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $118.27 billion, accounting for 6.57% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $57.9 billion.

In the same week, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of nearly $209 million, also recording the first week of net capital inflow since December.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA topped the net inflow list last week with nearly $139 million, currently accumulating a total net inflow of $13.23 billion;

Next were Fidelity's FETH, Grayscale's ETH, and Bitwise's ETHW, which recorded net inflows of $35.35 million, $32.80 million, and $17.91 million last week, respectively;

VanEck's ETHV and 21Shares' TETH recorded net inflows of $14.64 million and $3.75 million last week, respectively; it is noteworthy that Grayscale's ETHE was the only ETH ETF to record a net outflow last week with $34.17 million;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $19.42 billion, accounting for 5.22% of Ethereum's total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $13.09 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The U.S. OCC allows banks to achieve zero-risk profits from cryptocurrency trading services

On December 9, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in the United States issued Interpretation Letter 1188, clearly allowing national banks to participate in cryptocurrency asset trading in a 'risk-free principal' model without holding token inventories or assuming net risk exposure.

This means that banks can act as intermediaries for both buyers and sellers, connecting and matching trades for customers, with business attributes that are essentially consistent with traditional securities brokerage models.

This move directly responds to the core demand for traditional banks to comply with entry into the cryptocurrency market, and it creates a clear path for controlled risk participation.

The core emphasized by this policy is that 'technology should not become a business barrier,' as regulators believe that the core functions of digital asset custody and trading are fundamentally no different from traditional financial business and can be fully integrated into the existing legal framework of banks for unified management.

This shift in policy also marks a transition in regulatory thinking from the past approach of 'isolation and prudent skepticism' to a new direction of 'classification and compliance norms.'

In addition, the OCC has reserved the national trust charter as a key entry channel for the cryptocurrency industry, allowing those companies that meet capital requirements, standard management systems, and strict risk control standards to apply for a federal trust license. Once approved, they can conduct core businesses such as cryptocurrency asset custody and stablecoin reserve management under OCC regulation.

This policy also indirectly rejects the traditional banking association's lobbying regarding 'unfair competition,' indicating that the OCC issues financial licenses based on the substance of the business rather than the form of technology to ensure fair market access for various institutions.

In summary, this regulatory measure by the OCC allows traditional banks to legally provide cryptocurrency services and participate in the market to avoid customer loss; while cryptocurrency companies can gain institutional trust and achieve business upgrades through federal trust licenses.

From a global perspective, this regulatory practice, which serves as a barometer, may influence the direction of cryptocurrency regulations in other major financial centers, thereby reshaping the international cryptocurrency financial regulatory landscape.

Overall, the OCC has not simply loosened regulations but has categorized cryptocurrency businesses and matched compliance requirements within the existing legal framework, aiming to systematically incorporate them into traditional financial regulatory frameworks.

#OCC

The selling pressure on the Bitcoin blockchain has significantly eased, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may support a rebound.

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market has experienced a significant easing of selling pressure over the past few weeks, which may lay the foundation for a price rebound.

The report points out that multiple key on-chain indicators show that the amount of Bitcoin deposited by investors, especially large traders, into exchanges has sharply decreased, which is a core signal of weakened market selling pressure.

Data shows that the overall inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges has dropped significantly from an average of about 88,000 coins per day in mid-November to about 21,000 coins currently.

This downward trend coincides with the BTC price rebounding from a low of $80,000 to a high of $94,000 during the same period, indicating a reduction in the circulating supply of Bitcoin in the market, which may drive prices up.

Moreover, the proportion of deposits from large traders (whales) has decreased by more than half from peak periods, and the average deposit size is also shrinking. This trend aligns with the decline in the overall inflow of Bitcoin into exchanges, further indicating that the market may face a "supply shock."

Analysts believe that the easing of selling pressure is due to investors having recognized and digested their existing losses. About a month ago, both new and old whales encountered the largest single-day loss since July, amounting to $646 million, after which this group accumulated losses exceeding $3.2 billion;

During the same period, short-term holders also sold assets at a negative profit margin (the spent output profit ratio SOPR was below 1) for four consecutive weeks. Historical experience shows that after market participants generally recognize and bear substantial losses, panic selling usually exhausts, thereby providing conditions for the market to bottom out.

From a macro perspective, the recently concluded Federal Reserve FOMC meeting announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, and this shift towards a loose monetary policy may provide additional liquidity support expectations for risk assets like Bitcoin, further consolidating market optimism.

In summary, on-chain data indicates that the selling pressure in the Bitcoin market has significantly eased, and investor sentiment has shifted from panic selling to loss digestion.

If the low selling pressure state continues, coupled with the market stimulus brought about by the interest rate cut, Bitcoin is expected to complete its bottoming out after digesting the current price level.

The market is also expected to gradually transition from the "surrender-style selling" phase to a balanced recovery phase driven by new funds and the confidence of holders.

#链上数据 #市场分析

The UK plans to unify the FCA cryptocurrency regulatory framework, with new regulations expected to take effect in 2027.

According to a report by The Guardian on December 15, the UK Treasury has officially announced that it is developing a comprehensive new regulation for cryptocurrencies, aiming to formally include crypto assets under the unified regulatory framework of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) starting in 2027.

This also means that cryptocurrency exchanges, digital wallet providers, and other cryptocurrency service institutions will need to adhere to the same operational transparency, consumer protection, and market behavior standards as traditional financial products, aimed at establishing a clear and unified regulatory system for the currently ambiguous cryptocurrency market.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves stated that this move aims to enhance transparency, boost consumer confidence, and combat illegal activities. The UK government also plans to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for political donations in response to concerns about the unclear sources of crypto funding.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves indicated that the core objective of this initiative is to "provide strong protection for UK consumers and exclude wrongdoers from the UK market," while also providing the certainty needed for compliant businesses to develop in the long term.

The motivation for the UK Treasury's regulation directly stems from increasingly severe real risks. Data shows that in the past year, losses incurred by UK consumers due to investment scams have surged by 55%, and false cryptocurrency investments are a major type of these scams.

In addition, due to concerns over the transparency of funding sources, the government has simultaneously planned to ban the use of cryptocurrencies for political donations to address external worries about these donations potentially evading scrutiny.

In summary, the cryptocurrency regulatory measures introduced by the UK have significance far beyond simple risk control. By proactively constructing a forward-looking regulatory framework, it not only sets clear compliance boundaries for the cryptocurrency industry but also aims to position London as the preferred hub for compliant cryptocurrency companies globally.

Therefore, this regulatory blueprint expected to be implemented in 2027 is not only a precise response to the current chaos in the industry but also a systematic strategic layout that balances innovation and risk control, as the UK seeks to solidify its position as the "world's leading financial center" and redefine its financial competitiveness in the digital finance era.

#英国金融监管 #FCA

TRM Labs Report: Stablecoins have become indispensable in Venezuela, with adoption rates continuing to expand amid economic difficulties.

According to TRM Labs' latest research report, after a decade of economic pressure, the people of Venezuela have come to rely heavily on blockchain technology for banking services. If the situation worsens, the adoption rate of blockchain technology may continue to grow.

Analysis indicates that Venezuela's cryptocurrency ecosystem has developed under economic collapse and international sanctions. This unique background has transformed cryptocurrencies (especially stablecoins) from an alternative financial tool into an essential core financial infrastructure in people's lives.

The core reasons include escalating geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic turmoil, the continuous devaluation of the national currency, the Bolívar, coupled with rising demand for stablecoins, making their value storage and exchange functions more favored by the public.

At the same time, multiple factors such as regulatory ambiguities, doubts about the authority and enforcement capabilities of the regulatory agency SUNACRIP, and declining trust in traditional banks will further extend the public's reliance on cryptocurrencies and increase their usage scale.

In this environment, stablecoins (especially USDT) have surpassed speculative attributes and have become the primary tool for households and businesses for daily transactions, playing a substitute role for retail banking services.

Moreover, influenced by the shortage of reliable banking channels in the country, the role of peer-to-peer (P2P) trading platforms has become increasingly critical, with over 38% of Venezuela's cryptocurrency-related website traffic directed to global platforms with P2P functionality.

According to Chainalysis' "2025 Cryptocurrency Adoption Index Report," after adjusting for population size, Venezuela ranks ninth globally in cryptocurrency adoption rates, confirming the depth of digital asset penetration in the country.

TRM Labs predicts that unless there is a substantial improvement in Venezuela's macroeconomic situation or a unified, clear regulatory framework emerges, the usage and importance of digital assets, particularly stablecoins, will continue to expand.

In summary, Venezuela's economic difficulties have unexpectedly fostered a highly representative new financial model. This situation also clearly demonstrates that in regions where the economy is disordered, decentralized financial technology can quickly fill the gaps of traditional finance, becoming a resilient financial lifeline from the ground up.

#委内瑞拉 #稳定币

Pakistan Signs Strategic Agreement: Plans to Tokenize $2 Billion Sovereign Bonds and Other Assets

According to a Reuters report on December 12, the Pakistan Ministry of Finance has signed a memorandum of understanding with Binance, a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, to explore the tokenization of government assets worth up to $2 billion, including government bonds, treasury bills, and commodities reserves such as oil, gas, and metals owned by the government.

This collaboration aims to enhance the liquidity and transparency of assets and increase their attractiveness in international capital markets. Binance may provide technical expertise and consulting support to help Pakistan assess compliant blockchain infrastructure.

On the same day, the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) issued a "No Objection Certificate" to Binance and HTX (formerly Huobi), allowing these exchanges to prepare for market promotion and customer communication under clear regulatory oversight.

Furthermore, these exchanges have been required to register with Pakistan's anti-money laundering platform and collaborate with local securities regulatory authorities to establish regulated local subsidiaries, laying the groundwork for applying for a complete virtual asset service provider license.

It is worth noting that Pakistan ranks third in global cryptocurrency retail participation, boasting tens of millions of users and a large, active crypto market, with estimated annual trading volume exceeding $300 billion.

In this market landscape, the country's initiative to establish a formal regulatory framework can effectively curb illegal trading while providing positive guidance for responsible blockchain financial innovation.

In summary, the Pakistani government demonstrates its strategic intent to seek a balance between regulating finance and fostering innovation through exploring the on-chain of sovereign assets and introducing leading global exchanges. This series of actions not only helps attract global capital but also promotes the modernization of the domestic financial system.

#巴基斯坦 #资产代币化

The SEC issues neutral cryptocurrency custody guidelines, gradually shifting from 'law enforcement actions' to 'investor education'

This Friday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a cryptocurrency custody guide aimed at providing investors with an objective and neutral 'starter manual' for the secure storage of cryptocurrencies.

The guide particularly reminds investors to carefully understand the key policies of third-party custody services, such as whether the custodian will 're-pledge' client assets to earn profits and whether client assets will be managed in a mixed manner instead of being stored separately. These policies are closely related to asset security and recourse rights, and are crucial for investors.

Additionally, the guide details the respective advantages and inherent risks of hot wallets (online) and cold wallets (offline). It points out that hot wallets primarily face threats from cyber attacks, while the risks of cold wallets lie in the potential for permanent loss of assets due to physical device damage, loss, or improper custody of private keys.

The reason this guide has drawn significant attention from the industry is that it sharply contrasts with the hostile and 'law enforcement regulatory' stance generally held by the SEC during the tenure of former chairman Gary Gensler towards the cryptocurrency industry.

Industry observers widely interpret this as the current SEC chairman Paul Atkins attempting to transition from being a 'punisher' to a 'rule maker' and then to an 'investor educator.' The cryptocurrency community has welcomed this, believing that the SEC has shifted from being a past oppressor to a current market educator.

It is noteworthy that the day before, the SEC approved a pilot program for U.S. custodial trusts and settlement companies to tokenize financial assets, covering stocks, ETFs, and government bonds.

In summary, this series of actions over two consecutive days indicates that the highest securities regulatory agency in the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to incorporate cryptocurrency assets and technologies into the traditional regulatory framework, signaling that U.S. cryptocurrency regulation may be entering a new phase that emphasizes clearer rules.

Overall, the neutral custody guidelines issued by the SEC not only provide valuable guidance for investors but also indicate that U.S. cryptocurrency regulation is developing towards a more clear and standardized direction.

#SEC #托管指南

The total net inflow of the U.S. BTC spot ETF yesterday was 49.16 million USD, while the ETH ETF recorded a total net outflow of 19.41 million USD in a single day.

On December 13, according to Sosovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of 49.16 million USD yesterday, marking the third day of net inflow this week.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of 51.13 million USD (567.26 BTC), making it the only BTC ETF with net inflow yesterday, with a total cumulative net inflow of 62.73 billion USD;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of 1.96 million USD (21.79 BTC), becoming the only BTC ETF with net outflow yesterday, with a total cumulative net inflow of 12.18 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 118.27 billion USD, accounting for 6.57% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a total cumulative net inflow of 57.9 billion USD.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 19.41 million USD, marking two consecutive days of net outflow.

Among them, Grayscale's ETH and ETHE had net outflows of 22.10 million USD (approximately 7,180 ETH) and 14.42 million USD (approximately 4,690 ETH), respectively, topping the list of net outflows yesterday;

Next was Fidelity's FETH, with a single-day net outflow of 6.14 million USD (approximately 1,990 ETH);

Meanwhile, BlackRock's ETHA had a net inflow of 23.25 million USD (approximately 7,560 ETH), becoming the only ETH ETF with net inflow yesterday, with a total cumulative net inflow of 13.23 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 19.42 billion USD, accounting for 5.22% of Ethereum's total market value, with a total cumulative net inflow of 13.09 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Analysis: Bitcoin may be entering a more mature new cycle, but the year-end performance remains uncertain

Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer posted on the X platform stating that the current market is in the year-end closing stage. The clearing of excessive speculation risks has driven a warming of market sentiment, combined with the implementation of the Federal Reserve's easing policy and stability in the bond and foreign exchange markets, which together have constructed a relatively robust macro environment.

However, Timmer also mentioned that the previously significant driving force behind Bitcoin's rise, the 'Bitcoin Treasury Company,' has fundamentally changed its market narrative. The financial pressures related to this company and the potential risks of token selling have shifted from being a driving force for upward movement to becoming the main resistance in the current market.

This shift in market narrative, combined with the technical reality of BTC's price breaking through the long-term trend line, has sparked widespread doubts in the market about whether its iconic four-year cycle has come to an end.

Regarding the core question of whether Bitcoin's iconic four-year cycle has ended, Timmer did not rely on market news or subjective judgment but started with the price volatility curve of the Bitcoin network over the years. He provided an analytical perspective by breaking down the mathematical patterns of its wave movements.

He pointed out that since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced five major upward trends. These trends exhibit a clear long-term pattern: the price increases of new cycles after each round of trends are gradually decreasing, but the duration of bull and bear cycles is continuously lengthening.

This pattern of 'diminishing price increases and lengthening cycles' also signifies that the Bitcoin market is transitioning from a highly volatile early stage to a more mature, converging volatility new stage.

Taking the third halving market of Bitcoin in 2022 as an example, the new bull market that began after reaching a low point of $16,000 not only fully aligns with this pattern but also reflects the market's gradual maturity.

Based on this wave analysis model, Timmer shared predictions for the potential targets of Bitcoin's current cycle. According to the trend analysis chart he provided, if the fifth wave upward trend can continue this trajectory, the theoretical peak price of Bitcoin could be around $151,360.

Finally, do you agree with Timmer's viewpoint on Bitcoin's cycle wave theory? Do you think BTC's current price peak will reach $150,000?

#比特币周期 #波浪理论

The user was 'card locked' by the bank's risk control due to the transfer remark 'Dogecoin'.

A few months ago, Ms. Yu and her husband transferred 250 yuan pocket money through their China Construction Bank account, and noted 'Dogecoin this week' in the transfer remarks. Subsequently, their accounts were identified by the bank's system as triggering 'virtual currency control' and were set to a frozen state of 'no receipt, no payment'.

After the incident, Ms. Yu and her husband received phone calls from the bank, inquiring about their relationship and the meaning of the remarks. To lift the account restrictions, they submitted several months of bank statements and a handwritten letter of commitment based on the guidance of a certain China Construction Bank branch in Dalian to prove the legitimacy of the transaction. However, they were informed that relying solely on the statement materials might not prove the transaction was unrelated to virtual currency, and the account might not be unblocked and could only be canceled.

In response to public concerns, the official customer service hotline of China Construction Bank stated that if the system detects a high risk in the account, it may indeed be set to the 'no receipt, no payment' status, but the specific judgment criteria should be consulted with the account-opening bank.

The staff at the involved branch pointed out directly that if the transfer remarks involve sensitive terms like 'Dogecoin', the bank will manage the account in accordance with regulations. Customers need to provide materials to prove that the remarks are unrelated to virtual currency, but this often poses challenges in practice.

Fortunately, after the incident was reported by the media, the situation seems to have taken a turn for the better. The staff at the account-opening bank proposed a new solution, stating that after submitting the marriage certificate of both parties, they can apply to lift the account restrictions. Currently, Ms. Yu and her husband are applying for unblocking based on the latest guidance, and the final outcome of the incident remains to be observed.

In summary, this incident also intuitively reflects the potential 'collateral damage' risks in the risk control models that financial institutions may adopt while strictly implementing anti-money laundering, anti-fraud, and compliance requirements.

It is understandable for banks to take control measures for suspicious transactions based on their duty to prevent risks. However, vague remarks can lead to a complete freeze of account functions, and the unblocking process is complex with inconsistent standards, significantly inconveniencing users' normal financial lives.

In the future, how to reduce this 'collateral damage' risk, and how to find a balance between effective risk control and ensuring users' rights to normal account usage, has become a topic worthy of in-depth consideration by the banking industry.

#银行风控 #锁卡

US BTC and ETH ETF experienced dual net outflows, with a total net outflow of 120 million USD yesterday.

On December 11, according to Sosovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 77.34 million USD yesterday, marking the second day of total fund outflows this week.

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC topped the net outflow list yesterday with nearly 104 million USD (approximately 1,130 BTC), while IBIT currently has a cumulative net inflow of 12.18 billion USD;

Following closely are VanEck HODL and ARK 21Shares ARKB, which recorded net outflows of 19.38 million USD (212.08 BTC) and 16.38 million USD (179.31 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Grayscale's GBTC and BTC recorded net outflows of 12.21 million USD (133.60 BTC) and 10.97 million USD (120.08 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Notably, BlackRock's IBIT and Bitwise BITB saw net inflows of 76.71 million USD (839.56 BTC) and 8.44 million USD (92.39 BTC) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is 119.93 billion USD, accounting for 6.55% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of 57.85 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of 42.37 million USD, marking the first day of total fund outflows this week.

Among them, Grayscale's ETHE and ETH topped the single-day net outflow list with 31.22 million USD (approximately 9,720 ETH) and 10.03 million USD (approximately 3,120 ETH) respectively;

Next is Fidelity's FETH, with a single-day net outflow of 3.21 million USD (988.07 ETH); while 21Shares TETH recorded a net inflow of 2.08 million USD (649.04 ETH) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is 20.31 billion USD, accounting for 5.22% of the total Ethereum market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of 13.11 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Is the selling signal here? The night before the interest rate cut, SpaceX and BlackRock transferred nearly $300 million in BTC to the exchange.

According to a report from the on-chain data tracking agency Lookonchain, two recent large Bitcoin transfers from institutions have drawn significant market attention and speculation.

Just hours before the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, SpaceX transferred 1,021 bitcoins (worth about $94.48 million) to an address associated with Coinbase Prime, while BlackRock deposited 2,196 bitcoins (worth about $203 million), totaling a transfer value of approximately $296 million.

The subtle timing of these transfers (coinciding with the Federal Reserve's decision) and the recipient (exchange-associated address) have intensified the already tense market sentiment that has been volatile due to interest rate cuts and macroeconomic uncertainty.

This quickly led to two opposing interpretations on social media. One side believes this could be a precursor to selling or increasing market liquidity, especially since the Bitcoin price has fallen over 28% from the October peak;

The other side argues that this is merely routine custody transfer or position management, pointing out that BlackRock's spot ETF also saw substantial net inflows on that day.

The market's sensitivity stems from the fact that the transfers occurred during a period of significant Bitcoin price fluctuations (with prices oscillating between $89,000 and $94,000 within 24 hours).

However, some analysts have noted that speculative positions in the current market have significantly decreased compared to the summer, which could mean that the market structure is more stable than it appears.

Additionally, SpaceX's continuous weekly transfers of nearly $100 million over the past two months add complexity to its background, leading to speculation that this may be related to its potential "Starlink" business spin-off or subsequent IPO plans.

In summary, whether the substantial transfers from SpaceX and BlackRock signal market selling or are merely "noise" in the market remains inconclusive.

The ultimate answer to this question will depend on whether these funds truly flow into the market and create selling pressure, as well as the further evolution of macroeconomic sentiment.

Therefore, until there are clear signals in the market, such large on-chain movements will continue to influence market sentiment.

#SpaceX #贝莱德

The U.S. Senate will hold a final confirmation vote next week on the nominees for the chairs of the CFTC and FDIC.

On Thursday, the Senate passed a resolution S.Res.532 with a vote of 52 in favor and 47 against. The passage of this resolution marks an important step for the Senate in confirming the nominees for the heads of the two leading U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory agencies.

A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader John Barrasso stated on social media that the final vote, which includes 97 candidates such as Mike Selig and Travis Hill nominated by President Trump, is expected to take place "early next week."

This development signifies the upcoming completion of a leadership change in U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. If the nominations are confirmed, Mike Selig will officially take over as chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Travis Hill will officially become chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Both agencies are assigned core roles in the future regulatory framework for cryptocurrency in the U.S. The CFTC is expected to become the dominant market regulator under Congressional legislative authority, while the FDIC will oversee stablecoin issuing entities and have a decisive influence on banking services for the cryptocurrency industry.

In fact, even while awaiting final confirmation, the CFTC has demonstrated a proactive regulatory stance, including the establishment of a "CEO Innovation Committee" for dialogue with the industry and the introduction of new rules allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum to be used as collateral for derivatives trading.

Hill's formal appointment will also solidify the pro-cryptocurrency banking policies he promoted during his time as acting chair of the FDIC. Therefore, the final appointments of these two officials are expected to inject greater certainty and continuity into U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policy.

#CFTC #FDIC