Analysts say that sentiment on the crypto market has dropped to a rocky low, which may indicate the potential for an uptick.
Behind these words, social behavior is dominated by a sharp bias towards negativity and fear - historically, such moments are often avoided by forming the bottom.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 16 points (extreme fear) - the minimum value in 2026. $BNB
Binance transferred $1 billion to the SAFU fund using stablecoins from Bitcoin over 30 days.
In addition, the fund is regularly reviewed. Since the falling price of BTC forced SAFU to fall below $800 million, the exchange is purchasing BTC, turning the fund up to $1 billion. $BTC $BNB
#PreciousMetalsTurbulence 📉 Market turmoil again: gold, silver, and stocks lost over $6 trillion in market capitalization in an hour
In recent days, precious metal prices have broken historic highs: gold rose to almost $5,600 per troy ounce, while silver exceeded $120.
Flushed with expectations of further growth, many rushed to buy metals. But history warns: such a strategy often ends in disappointment. For example, those who bought gold at the peak in the early 1980s needed about 28 years to break even—not accounting for inflation.
And it appears the scenario is repeating itself. According to data, gold fell 8.2% in just one hour today, and the combined market capitalization of precious metals and stocks has shrunk by more than $6 trillion.
🔖 Earlier, entrepreneur Peter Schiff stated that the dollar would collapse and be replaced by gold. $XAU
📉 The fall of BTC below $85,000 led to the liquidation of over $500 million over the past few years, with $206 million falling to long-term positions in Bitcoin.
🟠Bitcoin fell by as much as 6% and at the time of writing was trading around $84,300. In May, all major altcoins showed a similar decline of hundreds.
Previously, the Fed dropped the key rate without changes, making it clear that the reduction was expected to be the other half of the fate. Geopolitical tensions also do not suit risk assets.
#WhoIsNextFedChair Kevin Warsh is the front-runner to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman.
Polymarket gives him an 84% chance.
Warsh is considered a moderately hard-line candidate: he allows for rate cuts in the short term, but opposes aggressive QE and favors reducing the Fed's balance sheet, limiting expectations for deep rate cuts.
In the crypto context, Warsh is perceived as "Bitcoin-friendly." He has invested in crypto startups and views Bitcoin as a store of value, but is skeptical of it as a means of payment. He also supports blockchain development and the idea of a centralized digital currency (CBDC) in the US.
The market is predicting a scenario without soft monetary policy, but without harsh pressure on the crypto industry.
#GoldOnTheRise 💰The price of gold continues its record growth and is approaching 5600 dollars.
During the hour of trading, the spot gold price rose about 2% to $5,511.79 per ounce, having previously reached a record high of $5,591.61. In this way, the expensive metal continued the rich record trend. $XAU
Gold futures continued to rise and added more than $1,000 an ounce for the month to reach a record $5,370, putting them on track for their biggest monthly gain in dollar terms ever. $XAU
The Fed's rate decision will be announced at 9:00 PM.
The market is pricing in a 95.6% rate pause, maintaining the 3.50-3.75% range, and only 4.4% for a rate cut. This is direct confirmation that the January meeting is a formality in terms of the decision, but critical in terms of the signals. The main intrigue lies in Powell's rhetoric, the dot-plot, and the distribution of votes.
Markets are pricing in the next rate cut in June.
Baseline scenario.
A pause with no surprises. The economy remains stable: growth is above trend, inflation is still above target, and the labor market is strong. The Fed sees no urgency to cut rates. This means a wait-and-see approach until at least spring.
Hawkis scenario.
Emphasis on stable inflation, risks from tariffs and fiscal stimulus, minimal attention to the labor market. A hint that only one rate cut or a year-long pause is possible in 2026. In this case, the dollar strengthens, and rate cut expectations shift further.
Dovish scenario.
Focus on slowing inflation, increasing labor market risks, and acknowledging cooling demand. The market will interpret any statements about temporary inflation or balanced risks as preparation for June. The likelihood of a March rate cut will begin to rise even without actual changes.
What to look for in Powell's speech.
How does he describe inflation: temporary or persistent? What is more important for the Fed—inflation or the labor market? How many rate cuts does he allow in 2026: one versus two? Are there any direct signals about not rushing, data dependence, or the premature defeat of inflation?
FOMC votes.
If there is more than one dissenting vote, the market will perceive a split within the committee. This increases volatility and intensifies the reaction to the next macroeconomic data release. Unanimity indicates the Fed's comfort with the current rate level. $BNB