低频交易笔记

A detail: Recently, the market has made stop-losses particularly easy to trigger.

It's not that the direction is wrong,

but that the fluctuations just happen to hit the psychological range of most people.

After being triggered, the market returns to the starting point,

this feeling is more exhausting than just losing money.

Perhaps the market is not in a hurry to move,

but is quietly filtering who will lose control first.

#行情观察

#合约交易

#BTC

#ETH

#币安广场

The recent market trends actually resemble a mirror.

Not to mention whether the direction is correct,

many people have started to clearly "not sit still":

wanting to prove their judgments,

wanting to catch the rhythm,

wanting not to be left behind by the market.

But sometimes the market does nothing,

which itself is a choice.

The more one wants to prove oneself in this phase,

the easier it is to leave traces.

#市场情绪

#交易心态

#BTC

#ETH

#币安广场

Many people feel that the current market has no direction, but this is actually the most dangerous place.

Because there is no trend,

every rebound seems like an opportunity,

every pullback feels like 'if you miss it, it's gone'.

What is really being consumed,

is not the funds,

but the judgment and patience.

In such a market,

it is often not lost to a big mistake,

but to a series of 'small operations that seem fine'.#ETH #BTC

If you currently have these 3 states,

then you are probably not in the best trading phase.

Watching the market for longer and longer

Placing orders more and more casually

Immediately wanting to reverse after closing a position

These are not technical issues,

but rather it seems like the rhythm has been taken away by the market.

#交易行为

#合约交易

#币圈日常

#币安广场

From today's cryptocurrency market performance, the overall atmosphere still tends to be cautious. Mainstream coin prices continue to exhibit a volatile trend, and the fluctuations brought by news are evident but lack sustainability. On a macro level, discussions still revolve around interest rates, inflation, and liquidity expectations. The market's attitude toward risk assets is not aggressive, with more short-term funds engaged in speculation. On the trading front, it can be observed that there is support when prices fall, but a lack of follow-through when rebounding, indicating that funds have not formed a unified direction. The current phase feels more like digesting the recent macro and market news impacts to accumulate conditions for the next trend, rather than entering a clear trend market. #加密货币 #市场分析

From the recent market structure, the core issue discussed regarding #binanceabcs is actually one question: under the backdrop of macro liquidity not having fully recovered, funds are flowing in a "more selective" manner. The depth and transactions of Bitcoin have not disappeared, but are more concentrated around key price levels and event nodes. The daily market appears quiet, and once emotions or macro expectations change, fluctuations can be rapidly amplified. This means that the current market situation is not about a lack of money, but rather a lack of sustained consensus, with liquidity showing a state of "waiting for confirmation"—for traders, rhythm is more important than direction.

#binanceabcs #BTC #市场流动性 #加密市场

The current liquidity of Bitcoin presents a situation where macro tightening coexists with structural market weakness: adjustments in the Federal Reserve's liquidity policy and capital tightening have led to weak market buying, while the distribution of open derivatives contracts and holders indicates weak liquidity indicators. At the same time, a large amount of long-term unused Bitcoin re-entering circulation exacerbates downward pressure; however, some expectations of macro easing (such as interest rate cuts/RMP policy) may still improve the overall liquidity environment in the future, allowing Bitcoin to potentially rebound after short-term fluctuations. #比特币 #BTC流动性 #宏观经济 #市场深度 #流动性危机

The recent market information is a bit fragmented: on one hand, there are macro-level interest rate hikes, inflation data, and fluctuating policy expectations, while on the other hand, the crypto market has not provided a clear directional choice. Prices are more oscillating within a range, with volatility amplifying when news comes out, and quickly returning to calm after the emotional tide recedes.
You will notice a detail—when bad news comes out, the market doesn't necessarily continue to plummet; when good news appears, the market also struggles to move far in that direction. Funds seem to be observing, as if testing the waters, more of a short-term behavior rather than an attitude of 'betting on the future.'
In this phase, it's hard to say who is right or wrong. The bulls have their logic, and the bears have their reasons, but the market gives the impression that no one is that certain. Perhaps the market itself is also waiting for a clearer signal, rather than making a choice right now.

#市场观察

#宏观数据

#加密新闻

#BTC

#ETH

The recent macro data is actually quite interesting: on one hand, there are expectations of interest rate hikes and tighter liquidity, while on the other hand, risk assets did not directly collapse, but rather fluctuated repeatedly and moved hesitantly. U.S. Treasury yields are oscillating at high levels, and the U.S. dollar index has not shown a one-sided trend, but the volatility in the cryptocurrency market has clearly been amplified—emotions are moving faster than prices.
From the market perspective, it seems more like funds are 'waiting for a clearer answer', not in a hurry to bet on direction, but also not completely retreating. Every time there is a dip, there is support; every rebound lacks sustainability. This kind of market is not so harsh on judgment but instead demands a higher rhythm.
#Market Observation

#宏观视角

#市场情绪

#BTC

#ETH

#币安广场

【Today's Key Points in the Cryptocurrency Market + Mainstream Coin Trend Judgement】

The Bank of Japan has implemented a rate hike, and the market is re-pricing global liquidity expectations. As a result, Bitcoin has recently maintained a high-level fluctuation structure without showing a one-sided trend, but risk appetite has clearly declined—funds are more cautious, and the willingness to chase prices has weakened. Currently, it feels more like a stage of 'digesting macro news + waiting for directional choice' rather than the starting point of a trending market.

From a structural perspective, BTC is still in a critical range for speculation, with short-term strength depending on whether core support can be repeatedly validated; ETH is similar, with its trend clearly following the market, and it has not yet established an independent trend. Overall market sentiment is relatively neutral and cautious, with funds more inclined towards short-term speculation rather than heavy positions in trends.

My judgment is:

In the short term, it remains a high volatility + low certainty environment, which is not suitable for emotional chasing of positions; the true direction requires waiting for the market to provide clear feedback at critical positions. Macro events will not immediately change trends but will amplify fluctuations and increase the cost of mistakes.

#行情分析

#BTC

#ETH

#宏观影响

#市场观点

The essence of Japan's interest rate hike is to tighten global liquidity, which is not friendly to risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. However, the issue has never been whether to blindly short or to bottom-fish long. At this stage, where macro messages are settling, the market is most likely to experience high volatility and fluctuations: chasing long positions can easily get crushed, and chasing short positions may also face a rebound. A more reasonable approach for short-term contracts is to avoid rushing in a direction and wait for structural confirmation; if key support is effectively broken, the bearish logic becomes stronger; if it can hold core support and complete a confirmed rebound after a significant drop, then consider going long. At this stage, what matters is not making quick judgments, but maintaining a light position, having clear stop-losses, and being able to stay alive for the next trend. #合约爆仓 #ETH #BTC走势分析

The current market is clearly in a stage of fluctuation and competition, with pressure above and support below. The most dangerous aspect is not an incorrect directional judgment, but frequently taking action and heavily betting on a breakthrough without confirmation. Short-term contract strategies should avoid 'directional faith', refraining from ambushing in advance or chasing emotions, and only participating in pullbacks after increased volume or in key positions for secondary confirmation. At the same time, assume that you will inevitably be stopped out once to adjust your position size—being shaken out but not fatally is a reasonable position. At this stage, it’s not about who has the most accurate view, but who can survive through repeated fluctuations. Patience and risk control are more important than any prediction. #ETH走势分析 #日本加息 #BTC

Today the market is not very friendly, and volatility continues to test the execution power of contract traders.

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $86,000-$88,000, under sustained pressure compared to a few days ago, with obvious short-term volatility; Ethereum is also fluctuating around $2,800-$3,000, and the overall market sentiment is weak and even shows signs of fatigue.

This market situation is actually quite understandable:

▶ Global macro uncertainty continues to spread (messages affecting risk appetite such as the approaching Bank of Japan interest rate decision), making funds more cautious toward high-risk assets.

▶ BTC has repeatedly faced resistance around $90,000, forming clear suppression; if short-term support is broken, market sentiment will more easily turn defensive.

For contracts, this structure of fluctuation + the proximity of key nodes is the most dangerous period— the more eager you are to chase direction, the easier it is to be swept out by volatility.

My viewpoint is very simple:

👉 Direction does not count as victory, executing the plan does.

The most challenging aspects of a volatile market are stop-losses, position sizing, and patience, rather than judging "who is smarter."

If you are still chasing highs and heavily invested without stop-losses,

please first ask yourself:

"If this trade goes wrong, how much will I lose?"

#行情观察

#BTC

#ETH

#合约交易

#市场情绪

Many people think they lose in judgment,

but in fact, they lose in:

once the market starts to fluctuate,

the rules no longer belong to them.

#合约交易

#交易心态

#执行力

#币圈认知

A viewpoint that I have insisted on for many years, but most people are unwilling to admit:

Contract losses, 80% are not technical issues.

If you have truly reviewed enough trades,

you will discover a heart-wrenching fact——

Most people are not looking in the wrong direction,

but simply cannot hold on until the direction materializes.

The market is fine,

the structure is also fine,

but you will:

Stop-loss early

Add positions midway

Hold through drawdowns

Emotionally reverse

And then attribute the results to:

"Being targeted by the main force."

I used to think so too.

Until I realized:

The market has never targeted me; it is I who have sabotaged my own plan.

Those who can truly survive in the long term are not making more accurate predictions,

but executing more strictly.

If you are still pursuing:

"If only the win rate were a bit higher,"

then I advise you to stop and think——

Have you really executed your plan?

In contracts,

it is not predictions that determine fate,

but execution that determines longevity.

#合约观点

#交易认知

#杠杆交易

#爆仓逻辑

#币圈思考

Have you ever been liquidated? What is the real reason?

I have seen too many contract beginners treat "first profit" as a talent.

That day he excitedly told me:

"Teacher, I just entered the cryptocurrency world for a month, and my contract has already doubled. I feel like I have a good intuition for it."

I didn't congratulate him, I just asked:

"How did you make that money?"

He said:

"It's intuition, I just go for it when I see it. The fluctuations are so big, isn't it a waste not to trade contracts?"

Hearing this, I already knew the outcome in my heart.

The most dangerous stage in the cryptocurrency world is not when you just enter the scene, but when you just start making money.

Because at this point, you will mistakenly believe that:

You have a good sense of the market

The market is cooperating with you

Stop-loss is optional

Having a heavier position is fine

But the reality is often:

The market has only given you a few strokes of luck,

But it has led you to misjudge your own abilities.

The next time I saw him was three months later.

His account hadn't gone to zero, but it was already halved.

The last thing he said to me was:

"It turns out that contracts are not what I thought."

If you are a contract beginner, I will say one unpleasant thing:

👉 The money you earn now is likely just the tuition you will have to pay in the future.

Contracts have always lacked opportunities,

What is lacking is—

Whether you have the ability to survive until the next market movement.

#合约新手

#币圈故事

#交易心态

#加密货币

#币安广场

Smash it, eat as much as you smash

A viewpoint that may be criticized, but I still insist on:

90% of retail investors are simply not suited for contracts.

It's not that they don't work hard,

but rather that contracts inherently punish human nature.

You think the losses in contracts are due to technical issues,

but when I review myself and everyone I know who has been liquidated, I find that almost all of them die from three things:

1️⃣ Position control

2️⃣ Emotional fluctuations

3️⃣ Frequent trading

The cruelest part is—

Those who are correct in direction end up losing the most severely.

Because once you think, "I got it right,"

you will hold on, increase your position, and refuse to admit mistakes,

until the market teaches you a lesson.

I even think:

If your current capital is less than 50,000 USDT,

and you still trade with 20x or 30x leverage every day,

that's not trading, it's gambling.

Many people will refute me:

"If I don't trade contracts, how can I make money?"

"Spot trading is too slow!"

But the truth is:

You are not limited by the market in terms of profits,

but rather your own trading methods are limiting your longevity.

Contracts are not something you can't do,

but they are more like a knife—

used well, it's a tool; used poorly, it's self-harm.

It's okay if you disagree,

but I want to ask:

👉 When you trade contracts, are you actually making money, or are you just repeatedly experiencing emotions?
#币圈观点
#交易认知
#加密货币