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HalfBarbarian

财富源自积累,耐心赢得游戏,基本面为主,技术面为辅,消息面只会影响短期走势。
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Trend analysis of cryptocurrencies over the next decade, the opportunities most likely for ordinary people to make money in the long run. Follow me, and let's navigate the bull and bear markets together.1. Overall outlook: The decade-long changes led by Bitcoin The main cryptocurrency is Bitcoin (BTC), which remains the core asset in the global crypto market. According to real-time data and on-chain metrics (such as SOPR and the proportion of long-term holders), Bitcoin is entering a "slow bull cycle" after undergoing structural adjustments. This means that the next decade will no longer be a period of explosive bull markets, but rather a phase of steady growth driven by institutional capital. Cycle evolution: The traditional "four-year cycle" theory is gradually becoming ineffective, as institutional investors (such as top funds like Harvard University) entering the market has significantly reduced volatility. The supply of long-term holders has exceeded 14 million coins, indicating a strengthening trend of "long-term locking."

Trend analysis of cryptocurrencies over the next decade, the opportunities most likely for ordinary people to make money in the long run. Follow me, and let's navigate the bull and bear markets together.

1. Overall outlook: The decade-long changes led by Bitcoin
The main cryptocurrency is Bitcoin (BTC), which remains the core asset in the global crypto market. According to real-time data and on-chain metrics (such as SOPR and the proportion of long-term holders), Bitcoin is entering a "slow bull cycle" after undergoing structural adjustments. This means that the next decade will no longer be a period of explosive bull markets, but rather a phase of steady growth driven by institutional capital.
Cycle evolution: The traditional "four-year cycle" theory is gradually becoming ineffective, as institutional investors (such as top funds like Harvard University) entering the market has significantly reduced volatility. The supply of long-term holders has exceeded 14 million coins, indicating a strengthening trend of "long-term locking."
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Let's talk about rebates and following trades.First of all, I think writing an article like this will offend quite a few people, but I'm a nobody and I don't care. Rebates and following trades are originally mutually beneficial things, but they have lost their original intention due to the chaotic and malicious environment in the circle. First, let's talk about the various parties involved in rebates. First, the platform. Platforms offer part of their fee income to influential people to attract new users, using these influential newcomers to bring in more users. This motivation is straightforward. Second, influential people. Influential people use their influence to help the platform acquire new users and can earn income from it. This motivation is also easy to understand.

Let's talk about rebates and following trades.

First of all, I think writing an article like this will offend quite a few people, but I'm a nobody and I don't care.
Rebates and following trades are originally mutually beneficial things, but they have lost their original intention due to the chaotic and malicious environment in the circle.
First, let's talk about the various parties involved in rebates.
First, the platform.
Platforms offer part of their fee income to influential people to attract new users, using these influential newcomers to bring in more users. This motivation is straightforward.
Second, influential people.
Influential people use their influence to help the platform acquire new users and can earn income from it. This motivation is also easy to understand.
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Seeing so many people in the square saying that $PIPPIN needs to sell spot to crash the market, so the traders can profit, and then some big KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) are leading many people to short. I don't know if it's bad or foolish. First of all, selling spot to crash the market for profit is just one way for traders to profit. Even without crashing the market, there are other means of profit like funding fees, [具体庄家收割可以看看这个文章,我写的更详细一点](https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cart/33772548176329?r=WCTQ8D8X&l=zh-CN&uco=mbfavawmA-gw88SNSwKbpQ&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink). If one doesn't know this method but still calls for more people to short, that is foolish. If they know about this issue and still call for shorting, then it might be bad. Currently, those who are shorting this coin are not just the traders anymore, but also other short sellers, because someone's wallet will eventually get drained due to funding fees and such. So only if the shorts are drained enough, and at the same time new shorts come in, when the market heat cannot bring more people into this coin, and when traders are no longer satisfied with profits from funding fees and such, then there might be a possibility of a spot market crash and a drop. Even in this situation, traders might not necessarily need to crash the spot market to profit. Right now, the enthusiasm is still not down, and there are still people willing to come and play, so why would the traders want to run? {future}(PIPPINUSDT)
Seeing so many people in the square saying that $PIPPIN needs to sell spot to crash the market, so the traders can profit, and then some big KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) are leading many people to short. I don't know if it's bad or foolish. First of all, selling spot to crash the market for profit is just one way for traders to profit. Even without crashing the market, there are other means of profit like funding fees, 具体庄家收割可以看看这个文章,我写的更详细一点. If one doesn't know this method but still calls for more people to short, that is foolish.
If they know about this issue and still call for shorting, then it might be bad.
Currently, those who are shorting this coin are not just the traders anymore, but also other short sellers, because someone's wallet will eventually get drained due to funding fees and such. So only if the shorts are drained enough, and at the same time new shorts come in, when the market heat cannot bring more people into this coin, and when traders are no longer satisfied with profits from funding fees and such, then there might be a possibility of a spot market crash and a drop. Even in this situation, traders might not necessarily need to crash the spot market to profit.
Right now, the enthusiasm is still not down, and there are still people willing to come and play, so why would the traders want to run?
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$PIPPIN This wave is either the beginning of a crash or a washout. After calculating, it seems that the leveraged positions above three times near the peak have mostly been cleared out. This coin dealer really knows how to play.
$PIPPIN This wave is either the beginning of a crash or a washout. After calculating, it seems that the leveraged positions above three times near the peak have mostly been cleared out. This coin dealer really knows how to play.
See original
Not long after just saying that, is Pippin going to start falling too?
Not long after just saying that, is Pippin going to start falling too?
HalfBarbarian
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Bearish
Counterfeits can still be empty, this $BEAT is not dropping fast, not every one is a demon coin $PIPPIN , but indeed the demon coin scares me and my positions are indeed getting smaller.
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Bearish
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Counterfeits can still be empty, this $BEAT is not dropping fast, not every one is a demon coin $PIPPIN , but indeed the demon coin scares me and my positions are indeed getting smaller.
Counterfeits can still be empty, this $BEAT is not dropping fast, not every one is a demon coin $PIPPIN , but indeed the demon coin scares me and my positions are indeed getting smaller.
S
BEATUSDT
Closed
PNL
+148.48%
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zec and bch have both dropped, but the recent pump of the meme coins still has some positions. It can only be said that coins with small market capitalization are still too easy to be manipulated. In other words, if the cost of manipulation is low enough, then coins with insufficient market capitalization have recently been subject to increasingly bottomless harvesting actions, which hold little attraction for me. Moreover, the mainstream market has also arrived; it seems that this wave of altcoins is quickly passing.
zec and bch have both dropped, but the recent pump of the meme coins still has some positions. It can only be said that coins with small market capitalization are still too easy to be manipulated. In other words, if the cost of manipulation is low enough, then coins with insufficient market capitalization have recently been subject to increasingly bottomless harvesting actions, which hold little attraction for me. Moreover, the mainstream market has also arrived; it seems that this wave of altcoins is quickly passing.
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How are dealers completing the harvest through funding rates? Some in-depth exploration of funding rate issues.How are the dealers 'controlling the market' to harvest retail investors through funding rates? I have already placed a simple flowchart on the cover. Here we discuss a common strategy for manipulating spot and contract prices, which may involve either the project team's own market value management team, professional market makers, or large speculative investors with substantial capital. Therefore, the following text will uniformly refer to them as 'dealers' using a term that everyone prefers. Everyone should have recently seen some unreasonable situations in various small-cap cryptocurrencies ( etc.) situation 1: Low on-chain and spot trading volume, but high contract trading volume.

How are dealers completing the harvest through funding rates? Some in-depth exploration of funding rate issues.

How are the dealers 'controlling the market' to harvest retail investors through funding rates?

I have already placed a simple flowchart on the cover.

Here we discuss a common strategy for manipulating spot and contract prices, which may involve either the project team's own market value management team, professional market makers, or large speculative investors with substantial capital. Therefore, the following text will uniformly refer to them as 'dealers' using a term that everyone prefers.

Everyone should have recently seen some unreasonable situations in various small-cap cryptocurrencies (
etc.)

situation
1: Low on-chain and spot trading volume, but high contract trading volume.
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Bearish
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How can this thing go up and down like this? What else can a knockoff do? $WET
How can this thing go up and down like this? What else can a knockoff do?
$WET
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WETUSDT
Closed
PNL
+171.91%
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Bearish
See original
Nothing to do, just lightly short the altcoin, I just want to see if everyone is ready to become a meme coin. Besides, meme coins are just a waste; the ultimate fate of altcoins is just to go to zero. Today's target $WET
Nothing to do, just lightly short the altcoin, I just want to see if everyone is ready to become a meme coin. Besides, meme coins are just a waste; the ultimate fate of altcoins is just to go to zero. Today's target $WET
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WETUSDT
Closed
PNL
+19.77USDT
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Bullish
See original
The night of 0.48, the grid couldn't hold. It was originally a new coin, and it fell right after it went online. There is also a trend of building a bottom. At the very least, it should rise to harvest a wave, and there are various buffs like fees to enhance it. Unfortunately, I don't have much affection for shanzhai (copycat) coins, so I took a little and left. I'll look for opportunities next time. $NIGHT {future}(NIGHTUSDT)
The night of 0.48, the grid couldn't hold. It was originally a new coin, and it fell right after it went online. There is also a trend of building a bottom. At the very least, it should rise to harvest a wave, and there are various buffs like fees to enhance it. Unfortunately, I don't have much affection for shanzhai (copycat) coins, so I took a little and left. I'll look for opportunities next time.
$NIGHT
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Bullish
See original
The brightest guy today is $FOLKS {future}(FOLKSUSDT) Should I go short or should I go in more to eat the cost? Which big player has been trapped in? Previously, this coin was shorted, but it has become increasingly difficult to short altcoins recently. It seems that more and more people are watching the bear market, so there are more people choosing to short altcoins, and the market will never allow the majority to make money; the 28 law is really accurate.
The brightest guy today is $FOLKS
Should I go short or should I go in more to eat the cost? Which big player has been trapped in? Previously, this coin was shorted, but it has become increasingly difficult to short altcoins recently. It seems that more and more people are watching the bear market, so there are more people choosing to short altcoins, and the market will never allow the majority to make money; the 28 law is really accurate.
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Bearish
See original
Overall Conclusion #PIPPIN is currently in a significant technical correction zone, with a bearish capital outlook and weakening momentum. Based on the latest market indicators and macro background, short-selling opportunities still exist in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the entry points for short positions when rebounding to the resistance zone, seizing the trend trading during the wave correction phase. Comprehensive strategy and operational points 2 Short-term Strategy (Trend Following Short) It is recommended to enter short positions around 0.333 during the rebound zone. Stop-loss point: 0.343 (exit if resistance is broken). First target profit-taking: 0.305 If it does not stabilize, the second target can extend to 0.295 1 Medium-term Strategy (Trend Following) Short positions should be lightly held near the range of 0.326–0.330, maintaining a position of 30%–40% to prevent rebound risks. Target area: 0.275, stop-loss control at 0.345 3 Long-term Strategy Return to Zero In the long run, as long as there is still enthusiasm and trading volume, the market makers will continue to play, but in the long run, the enthusiasm for altcoins is destined to fade. So... Risk Control 1. Low trading volume may increase slippage, so leverage should be controlled reasonably. 2. Strict stop-loss to prevent market maker manipulation 3. The technical analysis of altcoin declines can easily be manipulated by market makers, and currently, it feels like the trading volume is starting to plateau. However, be cautious of the final dance... You can also place iceberg orders at high positions, but this requires a thicker margin.
Overall Conclusion
#PIPPIN is currently in a significant technical correction zone, with a bearish capital outlook and weakening momentum. Based on the latest market indicators and macro background, short-selling opportunities still exist in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the entry points for short positions when rebounding to the resistance zone, seizing the trend trading during the wave correction phase.
Comprehensive strategy and operational points
2 Short-term Strategy (Trend Following Short)
It is recommended to enter short positions around 0.333 during the rebound zone.
Stop-loss point: 0.343 (exit if resistance is broken).
First target profit-taking: 0.305
If it does not stabilize, the second target can extend to 0.295
1 Medium-term Strategy (Trend Following)
Short positions should be lightly held near the range of 0.326–0.330,
maintaining a position of 30%–40% to prevent rebound risks.
Target area: 0.275, stop-loss control at 0.345
3 Long-term Strategy Return to Zero
In the long run, as long as there is still enthusiasm and trading volume, the market makers will continue to play, but in the long run, the enthusiasm for altcoins is destined to fade. So...
Risk Control
1. Low trading volume may increase slippage, so leverage should be controlled reasonably.
2. Strict stop-loss to prevent market maker manipulation
3. The technical analysis of altcoin declines can easily be manipulated by market makers, and currently, it feels like the trading volume is starting to plateau. However, be cautious of the final dance... You can also place iceberg orders at high positions, but this requires a thicker margin.
See original
The biggest problem with altcoin speculators is the fear of not having enough players, so they use methods like pump and draw lines, and create trends to attract enough participants, regardless of whether you are going long or short, the speculators always have a way to harvest. It's just like doing business; the cost of pumping and drawing lines must be recouped, and if there's still momentum, the business continues. Therefore, meme coins can continue to be pumped at high levels as long as there are people willing to participate. Only small-cap altcoins can be played this way, while major coins like Bitcoin are much harder to manipulate because they do not support arbitrary fluctuations of several times, making it challenging to complete the harvesting. Moreover, the main players have shifted to institutions, and the amount of capital they control makes it difficult for them to operate in the short term because the market cannot absorb that many orders at once. Thus, altcoins come quickly and leave quickly, while Bitcoin comes slowly and leaves slowly. The question arises: in the long run, should we play with altcoins or Bitcoin?
The biggest problem with altcoin speculators is the fear of not having enough players, so they use methods like pump and draw lines, and create trends to attract enough participants, regardless of whether you are going long or short, the speculators always have a way to harvest.
It's just like doing business; the cost of pumping and drawing lines must be recouped, and if there's still momentum, the business continues. Therefore, meme coins can continue to be pumped at high levels as long as there are people willing to participate.
Only small-cap altcoins can be played this way, while major coins like Bitcoin are much harder to manipulate because they do not support arbitrary fluctuations of several times, making it challenging to complete the harvesting. Moreover, the main players have shifted to institutions, and the amount of capital they control makes it difficult for them to operate in the short term because the market cannot absorb that many orders at once.
Thus, altcoins come quickly and leave quickly, while Bitcoin comes slowly and leaves slowly.
The question arises: in the long run, should we play with altcoins or Bitcoin?
See original
How did I get to this location $BTC
How did I get to this location $BTC
See original
Is this thing not going to drop? I don't believe it. Starting today, I will record my shorting of altcoins every day. Let's call this No. 001 $PIEVERSE
Is this thing not going to drop? I don't believe it. Starting today, I will record my shorting of altcoins every day. Let's call this No. 001
$PIEVERSE
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PIEVERSEUSDT
Closed
PNL
+21.03USDT
See original
Recently, several meme coins have scared people into reducing their positions more and more, $TAKE , and the smaller the position, the faster it drops, right?
Recently, several meme coins have scared people into reducing their positions more and more, $TAKE , and the smaller the position, the faster it drops, right?
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TAKEUSDT
Closed
PNL
+9.22USDT
See original
Walking on the road of the empty mountain village, is there someone empty together? $FHE
Walking on the road of the empty mountain village, is there someone empty together?
$FHE
S
FHEUSDT
Closed
PNL
-208.47USDT
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Bullish
See original
This pippin shorted and got hit, the popularity surprisingly hasn't waned, let's go long and take another wave. Let's go long and take another wave, $PIPPIN
This pippin shorted and got hit, the popularity surprisingly hasn't waned, let's go long and take another wave. Let's go long and take another wave,
$PIPPIN
B
PIPPINUSDT
Closed
PNL
+10.10USDT
See original
Laughing to death, today's gain list, #USTC , algorithm stablecoin, at that time it was just like #LUNA stepping on the left foot and right foot spiraling to the sky, then when it exploded, it decoupled, spiraling to death with luna, then luna directly did not know how many zeros after the decimal point in the end, and then was delisted. But the project party's relationship is indeed amazing, they stubbornly got another #LUNC , yesterday pulled a #1000LUNC , today pulled #USTC . This is the ancient dog stock coming out to jump around. Is it true that the coin circle really has no memory, or has the bear market really arrived, even the stray cats and dogs want to jump around a bit. To be honest, can anyone really expect these coins to return to their peak? Just find a good position to short and that's it. Isn't it better to go long on Bitcoin? $USTC $1000LUNC $BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) {future}(1000LUNCUSDT) {future}(USTCUSDT)
Laughing to death, today's gain list, #USTC , algorithm stablecoin, at that time it was just like #LUNA stepping on the left foot and right foot spiraling to the sky, then when it exploded, it decoupled, spiraling to death with luna, then luna directly did not know how many zeros after the decimal point in the end, and then was delisted. But the project party's relationship is indeed amazing, they stubbornly got another #LUNC , yesterday pulled a #1000LUNC , today pulled #USTC . This is the ancient dog stock coming out to jump around.
Is it true that the coin circle really has no memory, or has the bear market really arrived, even the stray cats and dogs want to jump around a bit.
To be honest, can anyone really expect these coins to return to their peak? Just find a good position to short and that's it. Isn't it better to go long on Bitcoin?

$USTC $1000LUNC $BTC

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