Halving2024

Merry Christmas! Today, December 25, 2025, Bitcoin is ending the year on a much quieter note than many expected after its massive rally earlier this fall.
​While the "Santa Claus Rally" has lifted traditional stock markets to record highs, Bitcoin is currently "limping" into the holiday, trading in a consolidated range between $86,000 and $88,000.
​🎄 Bitcoin Today: December 25, 2025
​Current Price: Approximately $87,350 (as of midday).
​Holiday Performance: Bitcoin is down roughly 7.5% since last Christmas. It has retreated significantly from its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October 2025.

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Bitcoin has indeed pulled back after briefly reclaiming the $90,000 level earlier this week. As of today, December 23, 2025, the price is hovering between $87,000 and $88,500.
​This "rejection" at 90k has been a recurring theme throughout December, as the market struggles to find a clear direction following the massive volatility seen earlier in the year.
​Why did it drop?
​Several factors are currently pinning the price down:
​Anticipation of Key U.S. Data: Traders are turning risk-averse ahead of major U.S. economic readings expected this week, which could influence interest rate expectations for early 2026.
​The "Holiday Lull": Trading volumes are thinning out as the year-end holidays approach. In low-liquidity environments, even moderate sell orders can cause sharper price swings.
​Massive Options Expiry: A record $28 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options is set to expire on December 26. Large-scale expirations often keep prices "pinned" to certain levels as market makers hedge their positions.

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The Liquidation Landscape
​Support & Clusters: Analysts identify the $85,000–$85,900 zone as critical psychological and technical support. Below this, there is a dense cluster of long liquidations.
​The Cascade Risk: If Bitcoin fails to hold $85,000 on a daily close, it could trigger a "liquidation cascade." The next major liquidity pockets sit between $83,700 and $84,000. A breach there could accelerate the decline toward the $78,000 level.
​Recent Activity: In the last few days, the market has already seen hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions wiped out as the price dipped from the $90k range.
​Current Market Drivers
​Several factors are pushing BTC toward these liquidation levels:
​Macro Pressure: A hawkish Federal Reserve and rising global yields are dampening "risk-on" sentiment.

As of December 20, 2025, Bitcoin is indeed grappling with the $89,000 mark, which has transitioned from a support level into a stiff psychological and technical resistance zone.
​After a volatile week, the market is closely watching this level as the "gatekeeper" for any year-end recovery.
​Key Technical Resistance Levels
​Currently, the $89,000 area is part of a larger "supply zone" where sellers have repeatedly stepped in to cap gains.

The "Inflation Hedge" Identity Crisis: Even with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates recently, Bitcoin hasn't skyrocketed. Instead, it’s behaving more like a volatile tech stock, falling when the broader economy looks uncertain.
​Liquidity "Ghost Town": Trading volume naturally thins out during Christmas week. This "thin market" means even small sell orders can cause dramatic, "hard" swings in price, leading to the erratic behavior you're seeing.
​Massive Options Expiry: Roughly $23 billion in Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire next Friday (Dec 26). This is creating "sell pressure" as traders hedge their positions, keeping the price pinned down below the $90,000 mark.

As of December 19, 2025, Bitcoin is currently navigating a highly volatile period where the $89,000 to $90,000 zone has transitioned from a support floor into a formidable resistance

As of December 18, 2025, the $90,800 price level for Bitcoin has emerged as a critical "magnet" for price action. Current liquidation heatmaps and market data suggest this is a high-density cluster where significant leveraged positions are at risk.
​Why $90,800 is a "Huge" Zone
​Liquidation zones act as gravity because market makers and whales often push the price toward these clusters to trigger forced liquidations, creating the liquidity needed to fill large orders.

As of December 17, 2025, Bitcoin is currently trading around $87,000, having pulled back significantly from its October all-time high of approximately $126,000.
​The $74,000 mark isn't just a random number; it represents a major "retest" of the 2025 lows seen earlier this spring. If the current bearish momentum continues, here is why that drop could happen and what it would mean:
​Why $74k is on the Radar
​Correction Cycles: Historically, Bitcoin often sees 30-40% drawdowns during bull cycles. A drop to $74,000 from the $126,000 peak would be a roughly 41% correction, which fits the profile of a "healthy" (though painful) market reset.

​📊 Bitcoin $85K Support Analysis
​Critical Support: The $85,000 level has frequently been identified as a key support level that needs to hold to prevent a deeper decline.
​Loss of $85K: Breaking below $85K is often cited as a trigger for further downside, with the next major support targets typically mentioned around $83,800, $80,600, and the stronger demand zone of $80,000–$82,000.

A prediction of Bitcoin dropping to $74,000 would likely be based on technical analysis, market sentiment, or potential macroeconomic shifts.

​Historical Cycle Alignment: Historically, the peak of the bull market occurs roughly 1.5 years after the halving, followed by a decline. The most recent halving occurred in 2024, which means a peak in 2025/2026, followed by a bear market bottom in 2027, would still align with the traditional pattern.

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The $80,000 Level: The $80,000 or $85,000 range is frequently cited as a key strong support level where many are looking to buy back in, especially if the price were to drop further from its recent highs. Some analysts have pointed to a recent drop towards this range from a high around $126,000.
​Factors that Could Cause a Drop to $80k:
​Major Sell-Offs: Large institutional holders ("whales") offloading their Bitcoin.
​Macroeconomic Events: Unexpected policy shifts from central banks (like the Fed) or a significant global economic downturn.
​Regulatory FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt): Unfavorable new government regulations in major markets.
​Technical Breakdown: If Bitcoin fails to hold technical support levels (like $90,954 and $87,000) it could accelerate selling towards the $80,000 floor.

The Federal Reserve cut the key interest rate by a quarter-point on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, setting the new target range at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes today, Wednesday, December 10, 2025.
​Here are the key details and what is expected:
​🗓️ Key Times (Eastern Time - ET)
​Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision: 2:00 p.m. ET
​This announcement will include any changes to the federal funds rate and the committee's forward guidance.
​Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) / "Dot Plot" Release: 2:00 p.m. ET
​This is the Fed's latest forecast for inflation, economic growth, unemployment, and most importantly, individual officials' projections for the future path of interest rates.
​Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Press Conference: 2:30 p.m. ET
​Chair Powell will provide context for the decision and take questions, which often leads to significant market reactions.
​📊 Market Expectations
​Interest Rate Cut: The market is widely anticipating that the Fed will announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, which would be the third consecutive cut this year.
​"Hawkish Cut": Many analysts are focusing on whether the cut will be accompanied by a "hawkish" tone, potentially signaling a slower pace of cuts or a pause in early 2026, which would be revealed in the policy statement and the "dot plot."
​Focus on the Future: The main market focus will be on the signals for the path of interest rates in 2026, as revealed through the SEP and Chair Powell's comments.

Next FOMC Meeting: The next scheduled meeting is Tuesday, December 9 – Wednesday, December 10, 2025.
​The Policy Statement and Interest Rate Decision are typically released on the second day, December 10, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
​This is the final scheduled FOMC meeting of 2025.

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