The 4-year Bitcoin cycle just died, and no one noticed.
🪦 $BTC 🪦 Crypto-Twitter exploded, calling October 6 the peak of the cycle. An eighty-four percent crash is coming. Bear market confirmed. We are folding up. Only mathematics says that they are catastrophically wrong. Every indicator that predicted the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 is silent.
RSI assesses the rate and dynamics of price movements on a scale from 0 to 100 and is an impulse oscillator. It helps to determine the states of overbought and oversold markets. An RSI value above 70 indicates an overbought condition — the asset is expensive and requires a price correction. An RSI value below 30 indicates the asset is cheap, suggesting a potential price increase and oversold condition. RSI provides insight into the strength of the current trend, as well as potential reversal points, making it useful for making informed trading decisions. With RSI readings, one can detect reversal signals; check trend strength; find suitable entry and exit points; therefore, increasing the accuracy of trading strategies.
✅ Basic indicators, known as moving averages, smooth out price data to determine the direction of the trend. By tracking the average price of a security over a specific period, they help traders identify upward or downward trends. The simple moving average (SMA), which approximates the average price over a certain period by giving equal weight to all data points, and the exponential moving average (EMA), which gives greater weight to recent prices, thus increasing sensitivity to new data, are two main types of indicators. Support and resistance levels can be dynamically represented using moving averages. When the price consistently stays above the moving average, it may indicate an upcoming bullish trend; a price movement below the moving average may signal an approaching bearish trend. The combination of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages allows traders to identify both bearish "death crosses" and bullish "golden crosses."
During the recent sale #BTC short-term holders experienced the largest change in their value over 7 days since reaching a low of #FTX in 2022 at $16 thousand.
Historically, when the price of Bitcoin falls below the STH Cost Basis level, it can signal a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend, requiring either strong counter demand or a prolonged accumulation phase to restore equilibrium. The decline that has occurred indicates that buyers who entered the market at recent peaks are facing pressure and are realizing their losses, which in turn increases the supply in the market and may take time to absorb that supply.
Bitcoin futures on CME started the week with a gap of approximately $2,035. The contract that closed in the previous trading session at 90,610 opened on Monday at 88,575.
Such gaps occur because the CME market is closed on weekends, while the Bitcoin spot market operates 24/7. Significant fluctuations in the spot price over the weekend can create a gap between the closing price on Friday and the opening price on Monday.