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Key takeaways:
ETFs, treasuries and macro tailwinds may snap Bitcoin’s four-year boom-and-bust pattern.A bearish phase should not be ruled out before new all-time highs.
Bitcoin BTCUSD has historically moved in four-year cycles tied to its halving events, with prices typically peaking 12-18 months after each supply cut before sliding into a prolonged bear market.
This time was no different. Bitcoin peaked near $126,200 in October, exactly eighteen months after the April 2024 halving, before declining by more than 30%.

The trend aligns with the early stages of past bearish phases, prompting veteran analysts such as Peter Brandt to see Bitcoin falling toward $25,000 in the coming months.
Bitcoin traders are selling at losses
João Wedson, founder of onchain analytics company Alphractal, pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal, a metric signaling the end of Bitcoin’s bull market.

Historically, SOPR marked market turning points by tracking shifts between profit-taking and loss-driven selling.
In bull markets, SOPR stayed above 1 as coins were sold at a profit, often preceding local tops. Near the bottom, it fell toward or below 1, signaling a realization of loss.
A sustained recovery above 1 later marked easing sell pressure and past rebounds.
As of December, SOPR was trending lower, showing BTC was being spent at smaller profits or at a loss. This supported the bearish narrative based on the four-year cycle.
“You may believe that Bitcoin’s cycles have changed and that this time is different,” Wedson said, adding:
“But, onchain analysis reveals that BTC continues to follow its fractal cycle, just as it did before, nothing has changed so far.”
New Bitcoin record high coming by June 2026: Grayscale
Multiple market observers noted that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may no longer be applicable, however.
On Monday, US-based Grayscale Investments predicted that BTC’s price would reach a new record high in the first half of 2026, citing a growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US.
“Fiat currencies (and assets denominated in fiat currencies) face additional risks due to high and rising public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time,” Grayscale wrote in its latest report, adding:
“Scarce commodities — whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ether — can potentially serve as a ballast in portfolios for fiat currency risks.”

Bitcoin will enter a supercycle like commodities: Fidelity
Fidelity shared a similar bullish outlook in its 2026 crypto outlook report.
The investment company discussed the odds of Bitcoin entering a “supercycle,” analogous to commodity supercycles in the 2000s that spanned nearly a decade.
Central to this view is what Chris Kuiper, Fidelity Digital Assets’ vice president of research, called an “entirely new cohort and class of investors,” which could support a longer market expansion than in past cycles.
“We’ve seen traditional money managers and investors begin to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets,” he said, adding:
“I think we’ve only scratched the surface in terms of the possible amount of money that they could bring into this space.”
As of December, US Bitcoin ETFs backed by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others collectively held over 1.30 million BTC (~$114.13 billion), a 309% increase since their debut in January 2024.

At the same time, public companies held over 1.08 million (~$100.42 billion) in their treasuries, an investor cohort that hardly existed before 2020.

With Bitcoin miners’ role decreasing with each halving, new demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries may be altering the boom-and-bust dynamics that have historically defined Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

As crypto investment scams surge, a bipartisan group in the U.S. Senate is stepping in to close the enforcement gaps that have cost Americans billions.
On the 17th of December, Senators Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and Jerry Moran (R-KS) introduced the Strengthening Agency Frameworks for Enforcement of Cryptocurrency (SAFE) Crypto Act.
The bill arrives at a critical inflection point for the industry. While the primary market has seen increased institutional adoption, the “dark side” of the ecosystem is expanding even faster.
How does the SAFE Crypto Act differ from previous regulations?
Unlike previous attempts at crypto regulation that often bogged down in jurisdictional “turf wars” between the SEC and CFTC, the SAFE Crypto Act is uniquely pragmatic.
It mandates the creation of a specialized federal task force designed to synchronize the response of the Treasury, the Department of Justice, and the Secret Service.
By formalizing a pipeline between law enforcement and private sector blockchain intelligence, the legislation aims to move past reactive policing and toward real-time interdiction of illicit funds.
Remarking on this, Sen. Slotkin said in the statement, 
“It’s critical we protect Americans against scams in all industries, but especially cryptocurrency as it becomes more popular.
Slotkin added, 
“This task force, established by the SAFE Cryptocurrency Act, will allow us to draw upon every resource we have to combat fraud in digital assets.”
The 180-day countdown
If passed, the SAFE Crypto Act would put the Treasury Department on a strict timeline. 
Within 180 days, the Secretary of the Treasury must establish a task force designed to break the traditional “siloed” approach of government agencies.
Unlike past committees that operated strictly within government, this task force will be a hybrid of public and private entities. 
It will bring together senior officials from the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Secret Service, alongside leading voices from the crypto industry, including exchanges and blockchain intelligence firms.
The inclusion of private‑sector participants is strategic. Regulators recognize that the data needed to track and stop scammers often resides on private ledgers and exchange order books, not in government databases.
Important mandates
The bill also acknowledges a hard truth found in the 2024 FBI Internet Crime Report, and that is the most devastating scams aren’t technical hacks of the blockchain, but “hacks” of the human psyche.
Last year, U.S. residents lost a staggering $9.3 billion to crypto-related schemes, a 66% surge from the previous year.
Most of these losses stemmed from social engineering and “pig butchering” schemes, where criminals spend months building trust with victims before siphoning their life savings.
To counter this growing threat, the SAFE Crypto Act mandates that the newly formed task force meet at least three times a year, focusing on three critical areas.
First, it must design advanced public-education campaigns that mirror the techniques scammers use, helping consumers recognize and resist increasingly sophisticated frauds.
Second, it will coordinate closely with foreign governments to target global “scam hubs” operating beyond U.S. borders.
Finally, within one year, the task force must deliver a comprehensive report identifying which existing laws have become ineffective, or “toothless”, against nonstop, 24/7 digital fraud, and recommend the legislative fixes needed to close those gaps.
€700M scam exposed
Recently, authorities dismantled a massive international cryptocurrency fraud and money‑laundering network. The group was responsible for stealing more than €700 million.
The first raid, conducted on the 27th of October, resulted in nine arrests. It also resulted in the seizure of over €1.5 million across Cyprus, Germany, and Spain.
In the second phase, investigators turned their attention to the affiliate marketing networks behind the scams. This operation shut down ad‑tech firms that had been funneling victim data.
Taken together, these coordinated actions represent a major global victory against organized cyber‑fraud. Investigations continue, and asset recovery efforts remain underway.
Final thoughts
By mandating a unified federal task force, the bill finally breaks the long-standing silos between Treasury, DOJ, Secret Service, and private blockchain intelligence firms.With a one-year deadline for identifying weak laws, lawmakers are signaling that U.S. crypto-fraud policy is about to undergo its most significant overhaul yet.

The urgency to upgrade Bitcoin to a more quantum-proof network has intensified. 
Consider this – Solana announced that it has deployed post-quantum signatures on the testnet, indicating its readiness to be more secure. Even Ethereum has a roadmap for achieving quantum security. 
Although the Bitcoin community is also actively discussing similar proposals, there is some doubt whether they can be implemented quickly enough before the quantum threat becomes a reality. 
However, Michael Saylor, the pioneer of BTC corporate treasury, doesn’t share a similar urgency. In fact, he recently noted that quantum computing will “harden BTC,” not break it. 

Source: X
Saylor elicits mixed reactions
For Saylor, the big tech firms will figure it out and can’t let the quantum tech go mainstream before governments update their systems. However, most experts disagree with his “simplistic” view and nonchalance. 
 Eli Ben-Sasson, founder of Starknet and Zcash, said that Saylor’s plans may be workable in theory, but impractical in real life due to the difficulty of reaching consensus. 
“Agree, in theory. Aren’t you worried code is by now so ossified, and simple fixes (like op_cat) so hard to push that in practice it just won’t happen?”
Mihailo Bjelic, a former co-founder of Polygon, also shared similar reservations and noted, 
“The upgrade takes ~2 years (~6 months if all regular txs stop, which is unrealistic). And this is assuming this major upgrade goes through smoothly, without contention (which is hard to imagine).”
Assessing the odds of quantum risk
Despite Google’s breakthrough in quantum computing, the tech is about 5-15 years or more away from becoming a real threat capable of cracking the Bitcoin network and wallets. 
For his part, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that there was a 34%-55% chance that BTC could be cracked by quantum computers by 2028-2030. 

Source: X
He added that Bitcoin will be devalued by similar odds if the upgrade doesn’t happen. 
“Given a 2-3 yr timeline to deploy fix, this is the current discount rate. And it is growing. Every. Single. Day.”
Bitcoin’s security relies on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) and SHA-256 (hashing mechanism). The former can easily be cracked, and both public and private keys can be retrieved with a powerful quantum computer. 
However, most old-format addresses (primarily from the Satoshi era) are now at risk, while new Segwit addresses are partially secure from long-range quantum attacks, according to experts. 

Source: X

Whale exits created strong ripple effects across ASTER’s short-term direction, with the latest selloff amplifying bearish momentum. 
On the 17th of December, an address offloaded 3M ASTER worth $2.33M, locking in a $667K loss — this signals deeper concerns among large holders. 
The move occurred only two weeks after accumulation around $0.78, showing how quickly sentiment flipped. 
This breakdown aligned with weakening demand as price extended its decline below previous support levels. The market responded with heightened caution as sell-side flows accelerated. 
Ultimately, this whale exit strengthens downside expectations while raising doubts about a near-term reversal attempt.
Is ASTER headed toward the $0.6 zone?
Aster [ASTER] continued to slide within a clearly defined descending channel, and this structure reflected sustained bearish control. 
Price traded near $0.76 at press time, sitting below the 1.618 Fib at $0.836. Sellers can now focus on the deeper targets at $0.741, $0.646, and $0.588. 
The MACD remained negative as the signal line stayed above the MACD line. 
Buyers may attempt minor reactions near $0.646, although limited momentum caps recovery potential. The descending channel’s resistance rejected every upside attempt, extending the broader downturn. 
The current technical setup implies continued pressure until buyers reclaim higher trend levels.

Source: TradingView
Open Interest slips as confidence weakens
Open Interest dropped 3.92% to $420.8M at press time, reflecting reduced trader willingness to maintain exposure during elevated downside risk. 
The contraction follows the whale exit and aligns with shrinking demand across leverage markets. 
Declining OI often confirms that traders are unwinding their positions instead of accumulating into weakness. However, it also reduces the probability of sharp liquidation spikes, limiting forced volatility. 
So, traders need clearer directional signals before reentering aggressively. 
Fading Open Interest also supports the broader bearish narrative and reinforces expectations of further downside pressure in the near term.

Source: CoinGlass
Shorts dominate as sentiment flips bearish
The Long/Short Ratio strengthened the bearish trend after shorts climbed to 58.35%, leaving longs at 41.65% at the time of writing. 
However, such extreme positioning occasionally enables brief corrective rebounds, especially if shorts become overcrowded. 
Traders continued reacting to the price rejecting the channel resistance, strengthening the bearish conviction. 
The shift toward short-side control reinforces downward momentum and lowers the likelihood of an immediate trend recovery.
Liquidations tilt heavily against long traders
Liquidation metrics reveal stronger pain on the long side, with $48.57K in long liquidations compared to only $3.65K in short liquidations.
This imbalance signals weak confidence among leveraged buyers as the market moves lower. 
Frequent long-side flushes reflect attempts to buy dips with limited conviction. However, smaller short liquidations suggest controlled downside movement without excessive volatility spikes. 
The market absorbs selling pressure smoothly as leverage resets deeper into bearish territory. Liquidation trends reinforce downside extensions and align with the technical signal pointing toward sub-$0.7 targets.

Source: CoinGlass
In summary, ASTER’s short-term outlook remains bearish as whale exits, declining OI, rising short dominance, and liquidation trends all point toward continued downside. 
Besides, the descending channel and Fibonacci breakdowns support a potential move toward $0.646–$0.588 before any meaningful recovery can emerge. 
While temporary rebounds may occur, the overall structure favors sellers until buyers reclaim lost levels. 
Consequently, ASTER appears positioned for further pressure unless market dynamics shift decisively in favor of accumulation.