掘金猎手
币圈A股大宗商品专业交易员/专注谐波，威科夫裸k技术分析// 普及技术，授人以鱼，不如授人以渔/ 微博，b站，搜掘金猎手，电报: ZXD3908 广场私信：JJLS168
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CPI exceeded expectations, interest rate hike confirmed, clear viewpoint: bullish outlook ahead! Where are the opportunities? A video tells you~$BTC $ETH
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Welcome to the Juejin family, chat about the crypto world, irregular technical guidance, analysis, and red envelope benefits! 掘金乐园
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Technical Sharing
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$ETH $BTC Breakthrough trend pressure has created a new high point, right-side intervention for buying opportunities!
🎙️ 🔥币安广场👉新主播孵化基地🌆畅聊Web3话题💖币圈知识普及💖防骗避坑👉免费教学💖
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03 h 37 m 53 s
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Share insights on the current market liquidity
——
Right now, there is a lack of performance from counterparties.
Favorable conditions bring counterparties, which will lead the market to liquidate counterparties
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive coin prices
Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive
——
Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market, but coin prices remain stable
When favorable conditions arise
First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions
Retail investors will also lag behind event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions
However, the favorable capital is not continuous. Event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.
This does not lead to the inflow of pricing level capital
Therefore, short-term favorable conditions drive price fluctuations while also disrupting the original game relationship
"Rebalancing" will bring about counter changes in the market
Thus, the more short-term favorable conditions there are, the easier it is to create a door
With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative
——
When will the breakthrough occur?
Change in pricing level or real improvement in liquidity
Here, we need to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools
I think everyone still needs to learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective
Otherwise, I really suggest watching and acting less
rv could be very important
The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging
Of course, shorting is also more advantageous
Because retail investors see favorable conditions and tend to go long
When they see unfavorable conditions, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on
These two are clearly unbalanced
——
Right now, there is a lack of performance from counterparties.
Favorable conditions bring counterparties, which will lead the market to liquidate counterparties
Because the market lacks sustained capital to drive coin prices
Thus, the crypto market is extremely sensitive
——
Assuming there are a large number of quantitative/market makers participating in the market, but coin prices remain stable
When favorable conditions arise
First, event-driven institutions will chase long positions
Retail investors will also lag behind event-driven institutions and similarly chase long positions
However, the favorable capital is not continuous. Event-driven institutions will quickly close positions, leading to market selling pressure. Retail investors are impulsive, not continuous.
This does not lead to the inflow of pricing level capital
Therefore, short-term favorable conditions drive price fluctuations while also disrupting the original game relationship
"Rebalancing" will bring about counter changes in the market
Thus, the more short-term favorable conditions there are, the easier it is to create a door
With Christmas approaching, the entire market is heavily defensive, and capital is very conservative
——
When will the breakthrough occur?
Change in pricing level or real improvement in liquidity
Here, we need to distinguish the adjustments in liquidity management tools
I think everyone still needs to learn about options to study arbitrage from a higher-level perspective
Otherwise, I really suggest watching and acting less
rv could be very important
The speed of rv suppression actually reflects the current scale of institutions in the market
As for directional judgment, I believe it is already lagging
Of course, shorting is also more advantageous
Because retail investors see favorable conditions and tend to go long
When they see unfavorable conditions, they do not tend to short/sell but will hold on
These two are clearly unbalanced
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The CPI data this time is below expectations, which is favorable for risk assets!
cPI rise and fall logic; inflation higher than expected is negative, while lower than expected is positive. Being below expectations indicates that current inflation is controllable, which is beneficial for further interest rate cuts, laying a data foundation for subsequent rate cuts!
cPI rise and fall logic; inflation higher than expected is negative, while lower than expected is positive. Being below expectations indicates that current inflation is controllable, which is beneficial for further interest rate cuts, laying a data foundation for subsequent rate cuts!
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03 h 32 m 28 s
15.3k
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Japan is set to raise interest rates tomorrow, and this chart has been circulating recently; let me share my views.
First, I believe that the reversal of the overall structural Carry trade should meet two conditions.
The first is the expectation of a recession in the United States.
The second is the continuous interest rate hikes in Japan.
Because if the United States does not experience a recession, a yield of over 10% on U.S. stock indices, given the current interest rate levels in Japan, is not attractive enough to reverse capital flows. Therefore, these two preconditions are the basis for my judgment on whether a complete reversal of the carry trade occurs. They set the big direction. This is also the main reason why the market was able to recover after the previous rate hikes in Japan. (I do not believe that all three previous rate hikes led to the market decline solely due to carry trade, and I will elaborate on this gradually.)
The first is the expectation of a recession in the United States.
The second is the continuous interest rate hikes in Japan.
Because if the United States does not experience a recession, a yield of over 10% on U.S. stock indices, given the current interest rate levels in Japan, is not attractive enough to reverse capital flows. Therefore, these two preconditions are the basis for my judgment on whether a complete reversal of the carry trade occurs. They set the big direction. This is also the main reason why the market was able to recover after the previous rate hikes in Japan. (I do not believe that all three previous rate hikes led to the market decline solely due to carry trade, and I will elaborate on this gradually.)
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Daily Picture: Ethereum breaks down, approaching the demand zone below with AB=CD, betting on a sharp rebound!
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#Gold and #Silver Relationship = #BTC and #ETH
The following image shows,
A comparison of the movements of gold and silver during the past three bull and bear cycles.
It is very similar to the strength comparison of BTC and ETH shared earlier.
In each bull market, gold leads the way upward, with gold's gains in the early and middle phases of the bull market outpacing those of silver.
Once gold begins to stagnate and silver's upward slope steepens with consecutive surges, it often indicates that the end of the precious metals bull market has arrived.
The logic behind this is also a matter of capital preference:
In the early and middle phases of a bull market, capital prioritizes safe and liquid 'core' assets, while in the latter stages, funds withdraw to seek potential higher-yield 'satellite' assets.
A comparison of the movements of gold and silver during the past three bull and bear cycles.
It is very similar to the strength comparison of BTC and ETH shared earlier.
In each bull market, gold leads the way upward, with gold's gains in the early and middle phases of the bull market outpacing those of silver.
Once gold begins to stagnate and silver's upward slope steepens with consecutive surges, it often indicates that the end of the precious metals bull market has arrived.
The logic behind this is also a matter of capital preference:
In the early and middle phases of a bull market, capital prioritizes safe and liquid 'core' assets, while in the latter stages, funds withdraw to seek potential higher-yield 'satellite' assets.
🎙️ 女神杯 合约挑战赛 第二期开始招募，女神交易员速度来！！！
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04 h 38 m 12 s
8.3k
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$RIVER This coin's manipulation is not in the square. If you see any trouble, please message me privately. Otherwise, I will unite retail investors to protect our rights!
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Non-farm negative, focus on operational opportunities in the downward structure $BTC $ETH
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Daily Picture; Non-farm negative news landed, continue to pay attention to short-selling opportunities at high points $BTC
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As someone who has been through it, I would like to share the path I have walked and the experiences I have accumulated. The fundamental difference between stable profit and stable loss lies in the key points:
Stable loss and stable profit formulas
Stable loss = N consecutive small profits + one to two large losses = defeat under a high win rate.
If this situation does not lead to enlightenment, it will continue to cycle for many years. The final result is either advancement or exit.
Stable profit = possible N consecutive small losses + one to two large profits = profit under a medium to low win rate.
Among them, the specific content of N consecutive small losses is that after setting a stop loss, the trial order must either stop loss, break even, or exit with a small profit.
Stable loss and stable profit formulas
Stable loss = N consecutive small profits + one to two large losses = defeat under a high win rate.
If this situation does not lead to enlightenment, it will continue to cycle for many years. The final result is either advancement or exit.
Stable profit = possible N consecutive small losses + one to two large profits = profit under a medium to low win rate.
Among them, the specific content of N consecutive small losses is that after setting a stop loss, the trial order must either stop loss, break even, or exit with a small profit.
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The premise is that you can guarantee margin without limits; where does an ordinary person have so much money and unlimited opportunities to engage in this?
三马哥
--
Waking up to a loss of over 10 million, yesterday I thought ETH could stabilize and rise around 3088, so I added another 2000 ETH only to see it crash again.
Since October, I have already been liquidated over 200 times from going long, with the highest unrealized profit of 300 million that I didn't take, and now I'm facing a loss of over 100 million.
Many people suspect it's money laundering or wash trading; if you're saying this, do you really understand trading? There aren’t that many conspiracy theories—losses are just losses. According to Huang Licheng's trading style, betting on a single side’s unrealized profit and adding to positions would probably lead to a turnaround.
Since October, I have already been liquidated over 200 times from going long, with the highest unrealized profit of 300 million that I didn't take, and now I'm facing a loss of over 100 million.
Many people suspect it's money laundering or wash trading; if you're saying this, do you really understand trading? There aren’t that many conspiracy theories—losses are just losses. According to Huang Licheng's trading style, betting on a single side’s unrealized profit and adding to positions would probably lead to a turnaround.
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A major event has occurred recently in Xinjiang
。
$BTC's total network hash rate plummeted by 8% overnight and 17% over the week. 400,000 mining machines just stopped without warning.
What surprised me even more was that after China completely banned mining in 2021, China's hash rate quietly returned to third place globally, accounting for 14%.
It wasn't until I saw the F2pool data that I realized: this was not an unexpected power outage, but a clearing action that had long been anticipated.
| A 17% drop over the week, an 8% drop in a single day
On December 13, Kong Jianping posted on social media: Bitcoin mining farms in Xinjiang are shutting down one after another.
At that time, everyone was still uncertain about the scale. Until today, he spoke again: the hash rate dropped by 100E yesterday, an 8% decline, and based on an average of 250T, at least 400,000 machines were shut down.
$BTC's total network hash rate plummeted by 8% overnight and 17% over the week. 400,000 mining machines just stopped without warning.
What surprised me even more was that after China completely banned mining in 2021, China's hash rate quietly returned to third place globally, accounting for 14%.
It wasn't until I saw the F2pool data that I realized: this was not an unexpected power outage, but a clearing action that had long been anticipated.
| A 17% drop over the week, an 8% drop in a single day
On December 13, Kong Jianping posted on social media: Bitcoin mining farms in Xinjiang are shutting down one after another.
At that time, everyone was still uncertain about the scale. Until today, he spoke again: the hash rate dropped by 100E yesterday, an 8% decline, and based on an average of 250T, at least 400,000 machines were shut down.
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Is the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike directly bearish for the crypto market? Will history repeat itself?
The direct impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations
Unlike the liquidity easing that typically accompanies interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations are exerting pressure on the crypto market through the following mechanisms:
· Background: The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the near future, with a probability as high as 97%. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, and its policy changes can influence global dollar liquidity and risk assets.
· Impact path: This is not an isolated event. For years, global investors have favored 'yen carry trades', borrowing low-interest yen to invest in high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, or cryptocurrencies. Once a rate hike in Japan leads to increased borrowing costs, these trades may be unwound on a large scale, triggering sell-offs of global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Unlike the liquidity easing that typically accompanies interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations are exerting pressure on the crypto market through the following mechanisms:
· Background: The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the near future, with a probability as high as 97%. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, and its policy changes can influence global dollar liquidity and risk assets.
· Impact path: This is not an isolated event. For years, global investors have favored 'yen carry trades', borrowing low-interest yen to invest in high-yield assets such as U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, or cryptocurrencies. Once a rate hike in Japan leads to increased borrowing costs, these trades may be unwound on a large scale, triggering sell-offs of global risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
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03 h 28 m 08 s
8.9k
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