Understanding the Relationship Between Trading Volume, Price, and Open Interest (Good Stuff to Collect and Forward)
Understanding the relationship between volume (trading volume), price (price), and open interest (position) is fundamental to futures trading. These three combined can help you see whether the market is 'real money in battle' or 'bluffing'. This logic mainly applies to the futures and contract market (because spot only has volume and price, without the concept of open interest). To make it easier to understand, I use a battlefield metaphor of 'two armies confronting each other' to explain. Part One: Core Concepts (Battlefield Metaphor) 1. Price: The direction of the front line (whether the bulls or bears have won).
Traders' (institutions) views and predictions on the current market conditions
BTC options OI (30d sma) has reached a new historical high! It has reached a scale of 563,242 BTC. In the last cycle, the derivatives market was mainly dominated by perpetual/futures contracts, and the weight of the options market was not large. However, this cycle is different; more institutions, while holding BTC spot, will use the unique leverage properties of options for hedging, arbitrage, selling volatility, buying protection, and so on. For example, in the past, risks could only be avoided by selling spot; now, buying puts can achieve the same purpose, which also significantly reduces the selling pressure on the spot market.
Therefore, the direction of the option market premium represents the traders' (especially institutions) predictions and attitudes towards the current market conditions, which is very valuable for reference. Figures 2-3 show the flow of options premiums (net buying/net selling) for the three key strike prices of 85,000, 90,000, and 92,000.
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