币圈分析师李哥

Japan is accelerating towards fiscal collapse

Recently looking at Japan's data, it is really very grim, it seems there is no hope, entering the phase of accelerated collapse. It used to be said that there were "30 lost years," "30 years of stagnation," but this isn't that bad, because it hasn't collapsed yet and there is no inflation. What can be done with the "three arrows"? It's actually just massive money printing.

Now the data isn't adding up, with so much national debt and interest rates rising, there’s no way out. Military spending needs to increase, and a 1% tax hike for everyone is required, all signs of fiscal collapse, even money printing is becoming constrained. Coupled with the world's most severe and prolonged low birth rate, there are simply no solutions left. Moreover, the Japanese have a problem of keeping serious issues bottled up until they completely collapse, then it's just a bow and that's it.
#日本加息

Latest news: 🇺🇸 Arizona Senator proposes tax exemption for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies

Arizona is already one of only three states in the U.S. with a Bitcoin strategic reserve🔥
#加密市场观察

⏰2025/12/23

- Federal Reserve Board member Milan: We believe that the policy interest rate will eventually be lowered.
- U.S. lawmakers push to resolve the "double taxation" issue of cryptocurrency staking before 2026.
- Russian Central Bank Governor: Cryptocurrency mining may be another factor contributing to the strengthening of the ruble.
- Ghana passes a bill to legalize the use of cryptocurrency.
- Bloomberg: Hong Kong plans to introduce new regulations for insurance companies regarding investments in crypto assets and infrastructure.
- Informed sources: JPMorgan is considering offering cryptocurrency trading services to institutional clients.

#加密市场观察

Now, there isn't any market activity at one o'clock on the weekend,
Bitcoin is still hovering around 88K.

Suddenly, I remember back when it was 120K,
a bunch of people thumped their chests and said:
If it drops back to 90K, I will definitely go all in.

But when it really got to 90K and 80K,
they started to hesitate, watch, and wait for even lower.

Every time they missed out, the reasons were different;
but every time they regretted it, the reasons were exactly the same.
#加密市场观察

The Bank of Japan's December meeting will raise interest rates, potentially ending over twenty years of ultra-loose monetary policy, causing a massive upheaval in global markets.
The core reason is that the Japanese economy is emerging from deflation, with wages and prices forming a virtuous cycle, making interest rate normalization imperative.
The key point is: the global scale of the "yen carry trade" (borrowing low-cost yen to invest in high-yield overseas assets) worth trillions of dollars will face a reversal. Once the yen strengthens due to interest rate hikes, it will trigger large-scale liquidation and selling, with the most liquid U.S. tech stocks, Bitcoin, and Asian markets likely to be the first to feel the impact.
For investors, it is crucial to remain vigilant about market volatility, pay attention to changes in liquidity, and consider increasing allocations to safe-haven assets to defend against risks.
#日本加息

30-Year High! The Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates
 
The "shoe" has finally dropped. The Bank of Japan held a monetary policy meeting and raised interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to approximately 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years! In the future, the Bank of Japan will also continue to adjust the degree of monetary easing through interest rate hikes, continuing the path of "policy normalization."
This news has both negative and positive aspects. The negative aspect is that the yen has always been the core financing currency for international arbitrage trading. The interest rate hike has led to an increase in the financing cost of the yen, which may trigger the unwinding of carry trades and withdraw global liquidity. Additionally, as a global low-interest-rate "valley," the rise in Japanese government bond yields will raise the global interest rate anchor, exacerbating concerns about the fiscal sustainability of high-debt countries. This is also one of the main reasons for the recent volatility in U.S. stocks, Asia-Pacific markets, and technology stocks.
On the positive side, the "shoe" has finally dropped, marking the end of this phase's impact. The interest rate hike in Japan indicates that prices of Japanese goods continue to rise, with data showing a 3% year-on-year increase in core CPI, which has a certain positive expectation effect on corporate profits.
 #巨鲸动向

Trump is more inclined to cut interest rates. [拳头][拳头][拳头] ​

The Federal Reserve has "done its best," but key corners are flashing red!
Just after the Federal Reserve announced bond purchases to inject liquidity, the critical overnight repurchase rate soared again on Monday! This has raised questions on Wall Street: Are the Federal Reserve's actions "too slow" or "not enough"?
The rise in this rate to about 3.8% is a sign that the short-term financing market is reacting lukewarmly to the Federal Reserve's liquidity injection measures.
These rates continue to face upward pressure, indicating that the financial system may be struggling with insufficient short-term financing liquidity. The rising cost of borrowing could lead to potential market turmoil, similar to what investors experienced at the end of 2019.
The question is whether the Federal Reserve has done enough, or whether its actions are fast enough.
I believe the Federal Reserve thinks it has done its utmost, exerted all its effort, but the market still feels tense.
The persistent pressure could spread and evolve into a kind of "contagion," leading to increased volatility in short-term government bonds and other asset classes.
If liquidity conditions remain slightly tight by the end of the year, I would not be surprised. The distribution of reserves in the system is not uniform.
The recent rise in the overnight rate is the result of a "technical issue," and that part of the market has "not experienced any abnormalities." In his view, the Federal Reserve has currently resolved the liquidity issue.
#美联储降息

9:30 AM heavy data 🇺🇸 November seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population data released, fluctuations are coming, brothers! Is everyone ready?

(A decrease in non-farm numbers indicates that companies are reducing production, leading the economy into a recession. Conversely, a significant increase in non-agricultural employment numbers reflects a strong job market, which can enhance purchasing power and consumption levels, positively driving overall economic development. Additionally, the healthy development of the economy promotes the creation of new job positions. Therefore, favorable non-farm data has a positive impact on exchange rates, and vice versa.

In simple terms for us, if non-farm data exceeds expectations, it is good for the dollar and bad for Bitcoin; if it falls short of expectations, it is bad for the dollar and good for Bitcoin!

However, from the current perspective, the result is likely just a direct drop, followed by a spike before continuing to drop, depending on the specific data results!）
#非农数据

Bitcoin's sharp decline has fallen below $86,000, with nearly $600 million liquidated across the network. The main reason is the central bank's policy changes: the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates (historically causing Bitcoin to drop over 20%), and rumors about a change in the Federal Reserve chair have disrupted market expectations. Central bank actions influence global capital flows, exacerbating volatility in the crypto market.

Countermeasures: 1. Control positions to avoid blindly increasing holdings; 2. Keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan's decision on Friday and the Federal Reserve's movements; 3. Maintain a stable mindset, as fluctuations are inherent in the crypto space, protecting the principal is key. A short-term decline may be a healthy adjustment; the long-term potential remains, so observe calmly, as opportunities often arise after risks.
#巨鲸动向

Breaking news is coming
You will regret not watching it for a lifetime❗️❗️❗️
Next week is Super Central Bank Week + a barrage of key data, focus on the following:

12.16 21:30 US Non-Farm Payroll data
12.17 22:05 Federal Reserve officials speaking
12.18 US November CPI
12.19 Japan's interest rate meeting (90% probability of a 25 basis point hike, a 30-year high)

Many countries including Japan, Europe, Russia, and the UK will announce interest rate decisions, market uncertainty is rising, rational planning is needed, don't act impulsively～
#加密市场观察

Breaking news❗️❗️❗️
The volatility pattern remains unbroken, and the high short strategy remains unchanged. Bitcoin's rebound failed to stabilize above 95000, indicating that the upward space has not opened. The probability of a decline at the 4-hour level has increased; if it drops below 87500, it will confirm the initiation. In the short term, pay attention to the support range of 89000-90000; if it loses this, we will look towards 87000.

The Ethereum trend is clear; the 1-hour level decline has broken 3100, and it may initiate a 4-hour level decline afterwards, targeting below 2800. Overall, the daily and weekly direction is still downward, but a daily level rebound is expected from the end of December to the end of January. Currently, we need to wait for the decline to complete and confirm the bottom.
#加密市场反弹

Weekend market often presents fluctuations and sideways movements. The current market's roller coaster trend can be seen as a bottoming phase. The technical indicators show that Bitcoin's daily and hourly charts are both in a bearish trend, with weak indicators. In terms of operations, BTC can be shorted in the 91800-91000 range, targeting 89000-88000; or go long in the 88000-89000 range, targeting 90000-91000. For ETH, consider shorting in the 3180-3140 range, targeting 3040-2990; and going long in the 2990-3030 range, targeting 3090-3130. Please strictly set stop-losses and ensure proper risk control.
#加密市场反弹

BTC short-term fluctuations near 92300, with a range between resistance at 94500 and support at 89200. It is recommended to go long at 91500-9100, targeting 92600-94500; go short at 93500-94000, targeting 92000-91500. Ethereum reference for going long at 3200-3150, direction consistent with BTC.
#加密市场反弹

Last night, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut landed, which was good news that turned into bad news. The small article about cement boxes in A-shares yesterday was neither refuted nor verified, and it has now turned into three small articles. Today, the sector has become sluggish again.

I can only say that the small W at 3000 points, I firmly believe in, and the small W at 3900 points I have pondered repeatedly
#美联储降息

The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut of the year by 25 basis points brings the rate range down to 3.5%-3.75%, a total reduction of 0.75%. Powell stated that inflation risks are rising while employment risks are decreasing, and the rate cut aims to stabilize employment and bring inflation back to the 2% target, with tariffs being the main reason for inflation exceeding expectations. Trump criticized the rate cut as too small, suggesting it could have been larger, and continues to publicly blame Powell.
#美联储降息

Tonight the market welcomes a double whammy: at 3 AM the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and at 9:30 PM the initial unemployment claims data will be released one after another, causing volatility to soar! The futures market has wildly bet on interest rate cuts, but beware of the risk of 'selling the facts' and a pullback. Retail survival guide: strictly prohibit heavy positions, be sure to keep an eye on the market, and remember to stay warm through the early morning. Let's talk about your trading plan!
#加密市场反弹

Interest rate cuts are coming soon

As the date for the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December approaches, investors' cautious sentiment is rapidly increasing. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at 3:00 AM on Thursday. However, what unsettles the market is that Fed Chairman Powell will not signal continued rate cuts but rather hints that this rate-cutting cycle is about to hit the pause button.
#加密市场反弹

The real risk lies in Powell's speech❗️❗️❗️
Don't think that once interest rates are lowered, everything will be fine. The real risk lies in Powell's speech after the rate cut! This cut is forced by the situation, not Powell's original intention. The rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, followed by Powell's speech at 3:30, I expect he will release extremely hawkish signals to preemptively signal 'no further rate cuts in the future.' He can be ruthless in scaring the market.

After the rate cut, the interest rate is at 3.5%, in the 'neutral range', but inflation is still at 3%, far exceeding the 2% target, and economic data is also good; the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue lowering rates, which is consistent with Powell's usual attitude.

I judge that after the rate cut next week, the market may take a sharp turn downwards, initiating a deep correction. My strategy is to establish 2 - 5 times long-term short positions on highs, while those seeking stability can wait for next year's crash to buy the dip. In the second half of next year, we may see significant easing, starting a 3 - 5 year upward cycle. Pay attention to Musen, leading you to avoid pitfalls and seize market opportunities!
#加密市场观察

⏰2025/12/09

- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.4%
- CEOs of Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will meet with U.S. Senators to discuss cryptocurrency market legislation
- The UK's financial regulator simplifies retail investment rules to promote market investment
- The Central Bank of Argentina is considering allowing banks to offer cryptocurrency trading services
- Dubai Customs collaborates with Binance to promote cryptocurrency payment applications
- Trump announces: allows NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China
#加密市场观察