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Bitcoin is once again under notable selling pressure as 2025 approaches its final weeks. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has declined by approximately 4%, while the monthly drawdown now stands close to 10%. With broader risk sentiment weakening across crypto markets, traders are increasingly focused on whether Bitcoin can stabilize—or whether a deeper breakdown is ahead.
What makes the current situation particularly important is that price structure and long-term cycle indicators are now converging on the same level. How Bitcoin behaves around this zone before the end of December could determine whether the market closes the year in relative stability or enters a new bearish phase.
The 2-Year SMA: Bitcoin’s Most Important Line in the Sand
Bitcoin is currently hovering near its 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA), which sits around $82,800. This is not a typical moving average used for short-term trading. Instead, it is one of the most respected long-term cycle indicators in Bitcoin’s history.
Although the 2Y SMA is calculated using daily price data, its signal is interpreted on a monthly closing basis. This means intraday volatility matters far less than where Bitcoin ultimately closes the month. Once the December candle is finalized, analysts will use that close to determine whether Bitcoin has defended or lost its long-term structural trend.
Historically, this level has acted as a dividing line between cycle continuation and deeper bear markets. When Bitcoin closed below the 2Y SMA in mid-2022, the market went on to suffer an additional 51% drawdown before attempting a sustainable recovery. That historical precedent is why the December 31 close carries such weight.
A monthly close below this level would officially confirm a breakdown, while a successful defense could preserve Bitcoin’s broader cycle structure going into 2026.
Selling Pressure Is Coming From the Wrong Side of the Market
The technical threat is being reinforced by on-chain data. According to long-term holder metrics, wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days have significantly increased selling activity throughout December.
Net position change data shows that long-term holder outflows have expanded from approximately 116,000 BTC earlier this month to nearly 269,000 BTC by December 15—an increase of more than 130% in just two weeks.
This is a critical detail. Long-term holders typically distribute only during periods of conviction, risk reduction, or macro stress. Their continued selling into declining prices suggests weak confidence in short-term recovery and adds additional pressure to already fragile support levels.
When long-term capital exits the market during weakness, it reduces Bitcoin’s ability to absorb downside volatility—especially near structurally important zones like the 2Y SMA.
Key Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Into Year-End
If Bitcoin fails to hold the $82,800–$81,100 support region into the monthly close, downside risks increase rapidly.
A confirmed breakdown below this zone would likely expose Bitcoin to a move toward $73,300, representing a potential 15% decline from current levels. This area aligns with both historical demand zones and measured downside projections.
On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $88,200 to ease immediate selling pressure. A stronger structural shift would require a sustained break above $94,500, which would restore bullish momentum and suggest that buyers are regaining control.
Until one of these scenarios plays out, Bitcoin remains trapped between long-term cycle support and rising distribution pressure.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive moment. The combination of cycle-level technical support, increasing long-term holder selling, and a critical monthly close makes the final weeks of 2025 especially important.
If support holds, Bitcoin could enter 2026 with its long-term structure intact. If it fails, the market may be forced to reprice risk much lower before stability returns.
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Gold prices edged higher during Tuesday’s trading session, reaching $4,305 per ounce, placing the precious metal just a short distance from its all-time high of $4,381 set in October. The steady climb highlights a renewed investor preference for safe-haven assets amid persistent monetary uncertainty and elevated inflation risks.
Gold’s strength is being reinforced by growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates, with market-implied probabilities suggesting a 76% chance of another rate cut in January. As real yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold diminishes, making it increasingly attractive in uncertain macro environments.
A Historic Divergence: Early Signs of a Turning Point?
Adding fuel to gold’s rally, the US dollar has slipped to a two-month low during Asian trading hours. Since the beginning of the year, gold has surged more than 64%, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. This rally has been driven by a combination of Fed rate cuts, aggressive central bank purchases, and sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
According to the World Gold Council, gold ETF holdings have increased almost every month this year, with the exception of May. This steady accumulation underscores continued demand for defensive assets as investors hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks, and slowing economic growth.
In contrast, Bitcoin is currently trading below $86,000, following a sharp sell-off that liquidated more than $200 million in long positions within a single hour on Monday. BTC remains approximately 30% below its October all-time high of $126,210, reinforcing its classification as a risk-on asset during periods of heightened market stress.
While gold traditionally acts as a refuge during uncertainty, Bitcoin has often behaved more like a high-beta asset, experiencing capital outflows when investors prioritize stability over growth.
Technical Signals Raise Questions About Bitcoin’s Next Move
The widening gap between gold and Bitcoin has captured the attention of market analysts. Prominent crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that the Bitcoin-to-gold RSI has fallen below 30, a rare occurrence that has happened only four times in history.
Technical analyst misterrcrypto echoed this view, pointing out that the BTC/Gold ratio is testing its long-term rising support line for the fourth time since 2019. Meanwhile, the Z-Score currently sits at -1.76, deep in oversold territory. Historically, previous tests of this support zone have preceded strong Bitcoin rallies.
However, technical patterns alone do not guarantee future performance. The current macro backdrop differs sharply from prior cycles, with persistent inflation and ongoing geopolitical tensions continuing to support gold’s appeal. Whether capital will rotate meaningfully from gold back into Bitcoin remains an open question.
Macro Factors Under Close Watch
Markets are now closely monitoring upcoming US economic data releases, which are expected to fill information gaps created by a six-week government shutdown. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release combined employment data for October and November, though some key metrics—such as October’s unemployment rate—will be missing for the first time in history.
Economists forecast 50,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, signaling a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing. According to Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley, even moderately weak data could strengthen the case for continued Fed easing.
Although the Fed recently cut rates by 25 basis points, policymakers have signaled a possible pause due to sticky inflation. Still, Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued that current inflation readings may not accurately reflect underlying trends, stating that “price stability has largely returned.” As of now, markets are firmly pricing in further rate cuts.
Technical Outlook: Volatility Ahead
Bitcoin options data shows significant open interest centered around December 26, with a heavy concentration of positions at the $100,000 strike price. Analysts identify a gamma volatility zone between $85,000 and $110,000, suggesting sharp price swings could emerge as traders reposition ahead of year-end.
Meanwhile, silver, which has surged an astonishing 121% this year, recently pulled back slightly from its record high of $64.65 but remains near historic levels. The metal’s rally has been fueled by declining inventories, robust industrial demand, and its designation as a strategic mineral by the US government.
Final Thoughts
As gold approaches a new all-time high and Bitcoin consolidates near key support levels, the coming weeks may prove decisive. The market will soon reveal whether this historic divergence resolves through capital rotation into Bitcoin—or whether gold continues to dominate as uncertainty persists.
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#Bitcoin #GOLD #CryptoMarket

Cardano (ADA) is currently trading near its weakest levels of the year, flashing clear technical warning signs that traders should not ignore. Over the past 30 days, ADA has declined by approximately 24%, with an additional 5% drop in the last 24 hours alone, pushing the price dangerously close to its yearly lows around $0.37.
What makes this decline particularly concerning is not just the magnitude of the move, but the repeated bearish structure forming on the chart. In less than two months, Cardano has now confirmed two separate bearish continuation breakdowns, reinforcing the idea that sellers remain firmly in control.
Two Consecutive Bearish Flags Signal Structural Weakness
The first breakdown took shape in early November. After forming a bearish flag through late October, ADA broke down around November 11, triggering a sharp sell-off. From the flag’s high, price declined by roughly 38%, confirming a textbook bearish continuation.
After a brief period of consolidation, Cardano failed to establish a meaningful recovery. Instead, price action repeated itself. A second bearish flag developed throughout late November and early December. On December 11, ADA broke down once again, confirming a second continuation pattern within two months.
When markets repeatedly print bearish continuation patterns without reclaiming key resistance levels, it typically reflects persistent distribution rather than emotional panic selling. This kind of structure often precedes further downside, especially when rallies remain shallow and corrective.
If the current breakdown follows a similar measured-move projection as the first, downside targets begin to cluster around the $0.25 zone, a level that is increasingly appearing on traders’ radar.
Why Extreme Weakness Could Temporarily Slow the Decline
Despite the clearly bearish structure, there are two important factors that may limit immediate downside acceleration.
1. Leverage Has Already Been Washed Out
Derivatives data suggests positioning is already heavily skewed bearish. According to liquidation metrics from Gate, long leverage has largely been flushed out, with only around $27 million in long positions remaining. In contrast, short exposure sits near $135 million, roughly five times larger.
Most long liquidation clusters are concentrated around $0.36, meaning forced selling pressure significantly decreases below that level. With fewer overleveraged longs left to liquidate, the probability of a sharp liquidation cascade diminishes.
2. Long-Term Holders Are Reducing Selling Activity
On-chain data also offers a subtle stabilizing signal. The 1-year to 2-year holder cohort, often considered higher-conviction investors, has dramatically reduced selling activity.
Data from the Spent Coin metric shows coins moved by this group dropping from 666.24 million ADA to just 2.48 million ADA since December 10—a decline of nearly 99.6%. This suggests that committed holders are stepping back from selling, even as price remains under pressure.
In simple terms, ADA’s weakness has already scared away excessive leverage and slowed long-term distribution, which can act as a temporary brake during broader market stress.
Key Cardano Price Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, Cardano’s chart remains fragile.
$0.36 is the most critical near-term support. This level aligns closely with liquidation data and recent price reactions.
A decisive break below $0.36 opens the door toward $0.33, where interim support may appear.
Below that, the measured breakdown target near $0.25 becomes increasingly relevant.
For any meaningful bullish reset, ADA would need to reclaim $0.48. Until that level is recovered, any upside moves should be viewed as corrective rallies, not trend reversals.
Final Thoughts
Cardano is currently sitting at a technically dangerous inflection point. Two bearish breakdowns in two months define the prevailing trend, and while extreme pessimism may slow the pace of decline, it does not automatically reverse it.
Unless ADA can improve its structure and reclaim key resistance levels, the risk of a deeper move toward $0.25 remains firmly on the table.
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#Cardano #ADA #CryptoAnalysis

At Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) shared candid insights into the current state of the cryptocurrency industry, highlighting both its progress and its unresolved challenges. His remarks focused heavily on crypto payments, regulatory clarity, and what the next sustainable growth cycle must look like for Web3 to succeed long term.
According to CZ, while crypto adoption has expanded rapidly over the past decade, crypto payments remain an unsolved problem at scale.
Why Crypto Payments Are Still Not “Solved”
CZ emphasized that despite technological advances, using crypto for everyday payments is still far from seamless. Key obstacles remain:
User experience: Wallets, private key management, and transaction flows are still too complex for mainstream users.
Compliance and regulation: Fragmented regulatory frameworks create uncertainty for both users and businesses.
Integration with traditional finance: Crypto payment systems are not yet deeply embedded into existing banking and payment infrastructure.
Until these issues are addressed, CZ believes crypto payments will struggle to achieve mass adoption beyond niche use cases.
The DAT Model: Still Valid, but Execution Matters
CZ reiterated his belief in the DAT model—Decentralization, Accountability, and Transparency—as a viable framework for building crypto organizations. However, he stressed that structure alone is not enough.
Success depends heavily on:
Strong governance
Operational competence
Clear accountability within decentralized systems
Without proper execution, even well-designed decentralized models can fail. CZ noted that many projects underestimate the importance of leadership and operational discipline in Web3 environments.
Web3’s Next Cycle Must Be Product-Driven
Looking ahead, CZ was clear about what the next crypto growth cycle should—and should not—be built on.
He argued that Web3 will only succeed if it focuses on real products, long-term value creation, and clearly defined use cases. Chasing short-term trends, hype narratives, or speculative token launches may generate temporary attention, but it does not create sustainable ecosystems.
In CZ’s view, the industry must mature beyond rapid cycles of speculation and shift toward:
Practical applications
Revenue-generating products
Long-term user value
Regulatory Shifts Could Unlock New Opportunities
CZ also highlighted potential opportunities stemming from regulatory easing in the United States. A more balanced and pragmatic regulatory approach could unlock innovation, attract institutional capital, and encourage responsible growth across the industry.
However, he cautioned that mass adoption cannot occur without legal clarity and robust financial infrastructure. Clear rules, interoperable systems, and cooperation between regulators and industry participants are essential for scaling Web3 responsibly.
CZ’s Personal Focus Going Forward
On a personal level, CZ shared that his future efforts will increasingly focus on:
Education
Philanthropy
Building sustainable ecosystems
Rather than chasing rapid expansion, he emphasized the importance of investing in long-term foundations that support responsible innovation and inclusive growth across the crypto space.
Final Thoughts
CZ’s message at Binance Blockchain Week 2025 was clear: the next phase of crypto growth will not be driven by hype alone. It will depend on better user experiences, stronger governance, clearer regulation, and products that solve real-world problems.
For Web3 to reach its full potential, the industry must mature—focusing less on speculation and more on sustainable value creation.
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#CZ #Binance

Chainlink (LINK) continues to underperform in price action despite a series of fundamentally bullish signals emerging beneath the surface. Most notably, Grayscale’s spot Chainlink ETF has recorded zero outflows since launch, while large holders have steadily accumulated LINK at scale.
Yet, LINK’s market price remains under pressure, raising an important question for investors: Why hasn’t price followed the fundamentals—and what could ultimately change that?
Chainlink ETF Shows Unusual Institutional Resilience
The first-ever spot Chainlink ETF, launched on December 2 on NYSE Arca, marked a milestone for the altcoin market. On its opening day, the fund attracted $37.05 million in net inflows, signaling immediate institutional interest.
Since launch, the ETF has not recorded a single day of net outflows. While it posted flat flows on three separate trading sessions, the overall trend has remained neutral to positive. According to SoSoValue, the ETF added another $2.02 million in net inflows on December 15, bringing total cumulative inflows to $54.69 million.
What makes this particularly notable is that Chainlink’s ETF has now surpassed cumulative inflows seen in Dogecoin and Litecoin ETFs, despite those products launching significantly earlier. This suggests that institutional demand for LINK may be more durable than for many other altcoins.
At the same time, ETF demand for majors has weakened. On December 15 alone:
Bitcoin ETFs saw $357.69 million in net outflows
Ethereum ETFs recorded $224.78 million in outflows
Against this broader risk-off backdrop, the Chainlink ETF’s stability stands out.
Whale Accumulation Signals Long-Term Conviction
Beyond ETF flows, on-chain data reinforces the bullish case. According to Santiment, the top 100 Chainlink wallets have accumulated approximately 20.46 million LINK since November 1—worth roughly $263 million at current prices.
This steady accumulation suggests that large holders are positioning for long-term value rather than short-term price fluctuations. Historically, sustained whale accumulation during price weakness has often preceded major trend reversals, though timing remains uncertain.
Why LINK Price Is Still Falling
Despite strong ETF inflows and whale accumulation, LINK’s price has failed to respond positively. Over the past month, LINK has declined 11.1%, according to BeInCrypto Markets data.
The weakness continued today as LINK dropped an additional 6%, mirroring a broader market sell-off. At the time of writing, LINK was trading near $12.78.
This disconnect between fundamentals and price action suggests that macro pressure, broader market sentiment, and risk-off conditions are currently outweighing asset-specific bullish factors.
Key Catalysts That Could Shift the Trend
Analysts point to several upcoming developments that could materially alter LINK’s trajectory.
1. Tokenization Pilot Program Approval
Last week, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a no-action letter to the Depository Trust Company (DTC), approving a three-year pilot program focused on asset tokenization.
While the blockchain protocols involved have not yet been officially announced, many analysts believe Chainlink is a strong candidate due to its established oracle infrastructure and deep institutional integrations. Selection for such a program would significantly strengthen LINK’s real-world use case.
2. Chainlink’s Role in On-Chain Finance
As one analyst noted:
> “ETH and LINK form the foundational backbone for future on-chain trading volume tied to real-world assets. If that thesis holds, accumulating these assets during periods of weakness is a long-term strategy.”
Chainlink’s infrastructure remains critical to price feeds, cross-chain interoperability, and tokenized asset settlement, positioning it at the core of institutional blockchain adoption.
3. Alignment With Grayscale’s 2026 Outlook
In its 2026 market outlook, Grayscale highlighted Chainlink as a potential beneficiary of continued growth in:
Stablecoins
Asset tokenization
Decentralized finance (DeFi)
As these sectors expand, demand for reliable data, automation, and secure connectivity—Chainlink’s core strengths—could increase substantially.
Final Thoughts: Fundamentals vs. Timing
In the short term, Chainlink’s price remains constrained by broader market conditions. However, zero ETF outflows, consistent whale accumulation, and expanding institutional use cases suggest that underlying demand for LINK is far stronger than current price action implies.
As tokenization and on-chain financial infrastructure continue to mature, these factors could play a decisive role in shaping Chainlink’s next major move. For long-term investors, the current disconnect between fundamentals and price may be worth watching closely.
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#BTC☀ #LINK

A crypto whale has recorded one of the largest single-investment losses in recent market history after a failed bet on AI agent tokens. The investor committed approximately $23 million into a basket of AI-related tokens on the Base blockchain, only to exit the entire position for just $2.58 million—resulting in a staggering $20.4 million loss, or an 88.77% drawdown.
Several individual tokens suffered catastrophic declines of up to 99%, highlighting growing concerns that the AI agent token narrative may have become one of the most speculative—and dangerous—trends in the crypto market.
On-Chain Data Reveals the Scale of the Loss
According to on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain, the whale’s portfolio consisted of six AI agent tokens, all deployed on Base. Every position ended deep in the red.
FAI: The largest allocation, resulting in a $9.87 million loss, down 92.31%
AIXBT: A loss of $7.81 million, representing an 83.74% decline
BOTTO: Fell by $936,000, down 83.62%
POLY: Lost $839,000, plunging 98.63%
NFTXBT: The steepest percentage drop, collapsing 99.13%, erasing $594,000
MAICRO: Declined 89.55%, losing $381,000
After fully exiting these positions, the wallet now holds just $3,584 in residual assets—mostly ETH and minor holdings in BYTE, MONK, and SANTA. The liquidation effectively marks a near-total wipeout of the whale’s AI agent exposure.
AI Agent Token Hype Faces Growing Scrutiny
The Base blockchain, developed by Coinbase, has become a popular launchpad for emerging AI-focused crypto projects due to low fees and strong retail participation. However, the sector has drawn increasing criticism for excessive hype and a lack of functioning products.
Many AI agent tokens promise autonomous, self-executing agents operating on-chain. While the concept is compelling, few projects have delivered real, scalable utility. As a result, prices often surge on narratives rather than fundamentals—only to collapse once speculative demand fades.
“This might be one of the worst investments ever. A whale or institution spent $23 million buying AI agent tokens on Base and sold everything today for only $2.58 million, resulting in a $20.43 million (−88.77%) loss,” Lookonchain commented.
The timing of the exit is also notable. AI-related crypto tokens peaked in late 2024 but experienced a 77% sector-wide drawdown in early 2025, as investor enthusiasm cooled and capital rotated into more established narratives.
Liquidity, Concentration, and Narrative Risk
A major factor behind the collapse was thin liquidity and highly concentrated ownership across AI agent tokens. When sentiment shifted, exits became crowded, and prices cascaded lower with minimal bid support.
This episode illustrates the risks of narrative-driven investing, especially in markets where:
Utility is unproven
Token supply is concentrated
Liquidity disappears during downturns
As the market matures, investors are increasingly demanding working products, measurable adoption, and real revenue models—not just whitepapers and marketing claims.
Risk Management Lessons from a $20 Million Mistake
From a risk management perspective, the whale’s strategy was deeply flawed.
Allocating $23 million across six highly correlated assets, all tied to the same speculative AI agent narrative on a single blockchain, amplified systematic risk. When sentiment turned, every position declined simultaneously.
Professional traders typically:
Limit exposure to unproven sectors
Diversify across narratives and liquidity profiles
Use position sizing and stop-loss strategies
In this case, the absence of disciplined risk controls allowed losses to compound rapidly. With several tokens down over 98%, even extraordinary rebounds would struggle to recover meaningful value.
Does This Signal the End for AI Agent Tokens?
It remains unclear whether this event marks the end of the AI agent token narrative or simply a brutal reset. Projects backed by strong technical teams, real development progress, and genuine use cases may still survive.
However, tokens relying purely on AI hype without execution are likely to continue underperforming as the market demands results over promises.
For now, this whale’s $20 million loss stands as a stark reminder: in crypto, narratives can change quickly—and without proper risk management, even large players are not immune.
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#ETH #AI

Grayscale analysts believe the crypto market is entering a powerful recovery phase, with demand strong enough to push Bitcoin toward a new all-time high in the first half of 2026.
This outlook was outlined in Grayscale’s newly released 2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era, published earlier this week. The report identifies 10 key investment themes expected to shape the next phase of crypto market growth.
According to Grayscale, improving macroeconomic conditions, increasing institutional participation, and a clearer regulatory framework in the United States are creating a foundation for sustained upside across digital assets—led by Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Poised for New Highs as Macro and Regulation Align
Grayscale expects Bitcoin to experience strong price appreciation in early 2026, driven by rising macro demand for alternative stores of value and a more supportive regulatory environment in the US.
Importantly, the firm believes this period may also mark the end of the traditional “four-year crypto cycle” narrative that has historically guided investor expectations.
> “We expect valuations to continue rising into 2026, and we believe the four-year cycle framework will lose its dominance. In our view, Bitcoin is likely to set a new all-time high during the first half of the year.”
From a macro perspective, Grayscale highlights growing concerns around fiat currency debasement, fueled by expanding government debt and long-term inflation risks. As these risks intensify, investors are increasingly looking to allocate capital toward Bitcoin and Ether as alternative monetary assets within diversified portfolios.
US Regulatory Clarity Becomes a Long-Term Growth Catalyst
Grayscale notes that the regulatory stance toward crypto in the United States has shifted significantly over the past few years. Several developments underscore this change:
The dismissal of multiple high-profile lawsuits against crypto firms
The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs
The passage of the GENIUS Act, which provides a regulatory framework for stablecoins
In 2024, spot Bitcoin and Ether exchange-traded products entered the market. In 2025, Congress passed the GENIUS Act, while regulators adjusted their approach—working more closely with the industry to provide clearer guidance while maintaining consumer protection and financial stability.
Looking ahead to 2026, Grayscale expects the US Congress to pass a comprehensive crypto market structure bill with bipartisan support. Such legislation could firmly anchor blockchain-based finance within US capital markets and further accelerate institutional capital inflows.
Grayscale’s 10 Key Crypto Investment Themes for 2026
Grayscale’s report outlines ten major investment themes that reflect the rapid expansion of real-world use cases across public blockchains.
Key highlights include:
Stablecoins entering a new growth phase, supported by the GENIUS Act
Tokenization of real-world assets reaching an inflection point
DeFi acceleration, driven primarily by lending protocols
Staking becoming the default investment strategy for long-term crypto holders
Grayscale expects tangible real-world outcomes in 2026, including stablecoins being integrated into cross-border payments, used as collateral on derivatives exchanges, appearing on corporate balance sheets, and increasingly serving as alternatives to credit cards in online payments.
Themes Unlikely to Drive Market Impact in 2026
On the other hand, Grayscale identifies two areas that are unlikely to meaningfully influence crypto valuations in the near term:
Quantum computing
Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)
While research into post-quantum cryptography is expected to continue, Grayscale believes it will not materially affect asset prices in 2026. Similarly, despite significant media attention, DAT models are unlikely to become a decisive driver of crypto market trends in the coming year.
Final Thoughts: A Structural Shift Toward an Institutional Era
Grayscale’s outlook suggests that 2026 could represent a structural turning point for crypto markets. With clearer regulation, growing institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds converging, Bitcoin may not only reach new highs—but do so within a more mature and integrated financial ecosystem.
If these trends hold, the next rally may look fundamentally different from previous cycles, driven less by speculation and more by long-term capital allocation.
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#ETH #crypto #BTC

Pi Coin continues to face heavy downside pressure, and so far, the market has shown little sign of relief. Selling momentum remains dominant, raising serious concerns about whether retail traders are stepping in too early—attempting to buy the dip in what increasingly resembles a classic falling knife scenario.
Over the past 24 hours, Pi Coin has dropped 5.6%, while the seven-day loss now stands at 11.5%. Since late November, PI has declined by approximately 32%, placing it among the weakest-performing tokens during the current market correction. With price still trending lower, the key question remains:
Is this a dip worth buying—or a trap that hasn’t finished cutting lower yet?
Daily Chart Confirms a Falling Knife as Bears Maintain Full Control
In technical analysis, a falling knife refers to a market that continues printing lower lows without forming a base or consolidation zone. Pi Coin’s recent price action fits this definition clearly.
On the daily chart, PI remains decisively below all major exponential moving averages (EMAs)—including the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs. These moving averages act as dynamic resistance levels and trend indicators. When price consistently trades below them, it confirms bearish momentum.
Every attempt at a relief rally has failed beneath these EMA levels, reinforcing the idea that sellers are still in control. For any meaningful rebound to begin, Pi Coin would first need to reclaim the 20-day EMA, which currently serves as the nearest technical barrier.
Bull Bear Power Confirms Sellers Still Dominate
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator further strengthens the bearish outlook. BBP measures the strength of buyers versus sellers by comparing price extremes to a moving average.
Since December 1, BBP has remained deeply negative and continues to trend lower. This suggests sellers are not only dominant but are increasing pressure rather than losing momentum. Importantly, there is no sustained bullish divergence visible yet—meaning buyers have not mounted a meaningful counterattack.
As long as BBP remains negative and price stays below key EMAs, Pi Coin’s structure remains firmly in falling knife territory—not a confirmed dip.
Short-Term Buyers Are Active, but Smart Money Is Still Exiting
A closer look at the 12-hour chart reveals a more nuanced picture. While Pi Coin price continues to make lower lows between December 11 and December 15, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has started forming higher lows.
The MFI combines price and volume to track buying and selling pressure. Rising MFI during falling prices often signals dip-buying activity, typically driven by retail traders or short-term speculators.
However, when we shift focus to larger capital flows, the story changes.
Chaikin Money Flow Shows Capital Still Leaving Pi Coin
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator—which tracks institutional and large-holder inflows and outflows—remains below the zero line. This confirms that net capital is still exiting Pi Coin, despite small signs of divergence.
While CMF has slightly improved, it has not flipped positive, meaning big players remain cautious and are not aggressively accumulating at current levels. This imbalance—retail buying while larger capital continues to sell—is a common feature during extended downtrends and falling knife setups.
In simple terms:
Retail is buying the dip, but smart money hasn’t confirmed a bottom yet.
Key Pi Coin Price Levels That Will Decide the Next Move
Pi Coin is now trading near a crucial technical decision zone.
$0.187 is the immediate support level preventing further downside. A decisive break below this level would significantly weaken the structure.
$0.174, the current all-time low according to CoinGecko, is the most critical level. A clean breakdown below this price could trigger accelerated selling pressure.
Based on trend-based Fibonacci extensions, the next major downside target sits near $0.130, which would mark a new all-time low for PI.
On the upside, any meaningful recovery must begin with a reclaim of $0.213. A 12-hour close above $0.213 would reduce immediate bearish pressure and challenge the falling knife narrative. Until that happens, all rebounds should be treated as fragile relief rallies, not trend reversals.
Final Takeaway: Dip or Falling Knife?
At this stage, Pi Coin remains in a high-risk technical structure. While short-term buyers are clearly active, broader trend indicators and capital flow data suggest the market has not yet found a durable bottom.
Catching falling knives can be costly—especially when trend momentum, EMAs, and capital flows all point in the same bearish direction. Until PI reclaims key resistance levels and attracts sustained inflows from larger participants, downside risk remains elevated.
Patience, confirmation, and risk management will be critical in the days ahead.
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#picoin #altcoins

As global markets enter the final full trading week of 2025, liquidity is thinning, volatility is rising, and institutional capital is quietly repositioning ahead of the new year. With the Christmas holidays approaching, Wall Street’s latest sector rotation is sending signals that crypto investors should not overlook.
This rotation is not random. It reflects a broader shift in risk appetite, liquidity preferences, and macro expectations—factors that historically ripple into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market. For investors positioning for 2026, these flows may provide one of the clearest previews yet of where crypto is headed next.
Wall Street Is Rotating — And Liquidity Is Moving
Recent market data confirms a decisive move away from overcrowded Big Tech and AI momentum trades. Over the past week alone:
Materials surged more than 4%
Financials gained approximately 3%
Industrials advanced nearly 1.5%
Meanwhile, technology and communication services lagged, signaling cooling enthusiasm in the high-beta AI-driven sectors that dominated most of 2024 and early 2025.
Deutsche Bank highlighted that technology equities have now experienced two consecutive weeks of outflows for the first time since June, suggesting that AI euphoria may be peaking—at least temporarily.
Chris Toomey, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, described this shift as “meaningful” in a recent CNBC interview. According to Toomey, institutional investors are increasingly looking beyond the MAG-7 and tech-adjacent names, favoring broader market exposure as they prepare portfolios for 2026.
Why This Matters for Crypto Markets
Historically, sector rotation within equities has often preceded liquidity migration into alternative assets. When capital rotates away from crowded trades, it doesn’t disappear—it searches for asymmetric upside.
Bitcoin has repeatedly acted as a proxy for global risk appetite, especially during periods of macro transition. As equity investors rebalance and de-risk from overheated sectors, excess liquidity often finds its way into crypto markets, particularly during year-end and early-year reallocation windows.
The current macro backdrop reinforces this thesis. The so-called “run-it-hot” narrative—characterized by expectations of lower interest rates, resilient economic growth, and seasonal liquidity—creates an environment where crypto can thrive, even amid short-term volatility in traditional markets.
Crypto Has Lagged — And That Matters
Year-to-date performance tells a clear story of underperformance:
Bitcoin: −8%
Ethereum: −12%
Solana: −33%
In contrast:
S&P 500: +15%
Nasdaq: +18%
This divergence suggests crypto may be late in the rotation cycle, a setup that historically increases the probability of sharp rebounds once liquidity conditions improve. Analysts increasingly argue that crypto’s relative underperformance in 2025 could become its greatest strength heading into early 2026.
Five Macro Catalysts That Could Fuel a Q1 2026 Crypto Rally
Several macro-driven factors are aligning that could support a strong crypto recovery in the first quarter of 2026:
1. The End of Federal Reserve Quantitative Tightening
A reversal or pause in QT would restore system-wide liquidity—an environment that has historically coincided with major Bitcoin rallies.
2. Anticipated Interest Rate Cuts
Market expectations point toward US policy rates falling into the 3.0–3.25% range, reducing opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets like crypto.
3. Short-Term Liquidity Injections
Treasury bill purchases, funding market support, and technical flows could temporarily ease financial conditions, benefiting risk assets.
4. Political Incentives for Market Stability
With midterm elections approaching, policymakers have strong incentives to maintain stable and supportive financial markets.
5. Labor Market Softening
Signs of slack in employment data could give the Fed room to remain dovish, sustaining liquidity and risk appetite longer than expected.
What Equity Markets Are Telling Us About Crypto Volatility
The ongoing rotation is also reshaping the equity market’s risk profile. Investors are increasingly favoring lower-beta sectors such as healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary, while stepping away from high-beta momentum trades in technology.
Recent price action in stocks like Tesla, driven by developments in autonomous robotaxi testing, highlights how short-term trading dynamics dominate late-year markets. These sharp equity moves often spill into crypto, amplifying volatility through correlated risk flows.
According to Toomey, year-end markets are increasingly trade-driven rather than thesis-driven, resulting in range-bound conditions punctuated by sudden volatility spikes—an environment crypto traders know well.
A Long-Term Framework for Crypto Growth
Crypto analyst Alana Levin offers a broader lens for understanding crypto’s trajectory through 2026, framing growth around three compounding S-curves:
1. Asset Creation – tokenization, new protocols, and financial primitives
2. Asset Accumulation – institutional adoption, ETFs, and treasury strategies
3. Asset Utilization – payments, DeFi, stablecoins, and real-world use cases
This framework applies across macro cycles and highlights how on-chain activity, stablecoin growth, and emerging market adoption could continue expanding—even as traditional markets rotate.
Final Thoughts: The Quiet Weeks That Matter Most
The final weeks of 2025 are not a dormant holiday period for crypto. They represent a critical preview of 2026, revealing how liquidity, macro sentiment, and institutional positioning may evolve in the months ahead.
As Wall Street reallocates and prepares for the new year, crypto markets often move first—pricing in shifts before they become obvious. A convergence of macro tailwinds and strategic sector rotation could set the stage for a potentially historic start to 2026 across digital assets.
Stay ahead of the flows. The next cycle often begins when attention is at its lowest.
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Stellar (XLM) extended its losing streak for a seventh consecutive session, shedding over 1% as of Tuesday. Often viewed as a direct competitor to Ripple (XRP), XLM is showing clear signs of weakening retail demand, while bearish bets in the derivatives market continue to increase.
From a technical perspective, persistent selling pressure is dragging XLM closer to its April low, significantly increasing the risk of a breakdown below the key psychological support at $0.2000.
XLM Derivatives Market Signals Growing Bearish Bias
According to data from CoinGlass, the XLM futures market is showing notable weakness as Open Interest (OI) dropped to $118.43 million, down from $124.72 million recorded on Monday. This decline reflects a contraction in the total notional value of open futures positions, signaling that speculative capital is gradually exiting the market.
As investor risk appetite fades, selling pressure has intensified. Over the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $406,740, vastly exceeding short liquidations of just $6,040. This aggressive long squeeze has shifted market control decisively toward the bears.
The bearish dominance is further confirmed by the Long/Short ratio, with short positions rising to 53.37% on Tuesday, up from 50.57% the previous day, reinforcing the bearish outlook in XLM derivatives.
Stellar’s Downtrend Threatens Key Psychological Support
Stellar closed Monday’s session at $0.2205, marking its lowest daily close since the start of 2025. Sustained selling pressure continues to push XLM toward the critical support zone around $0.2001, which aligns with the April 7 swing low.
In a bearish continuation scenario, a decisive breakdown below this level could expose XLM to further downside toward Pivot S2 at $0.1642, followed by a critical test of the yearly low near $0.1600.
From a momentum standpoint, downside risks remain dominant. The RSI on the daily timeframe hovers around 33, approaching oversold territory, while the MACD continues to widen its negative histogram after crossing below the signal line — indicating that bearish momentum is still building.
On the upside, a meaningful technical rebound could challenge the current bearish structure and allow XLM to retest $0.2579, the November 5 low, which previously acted as a strong resistance during late November and early December recovery attempts.
Trading Plan – XLM/USDT (Educational Purpose)
🔴 Sell Setup (Trend-Following – Preferred)
Entry (Sell): $0.218 – $0.222
Stop Loss: $0.236
Take Profit 1: $0.200
Take Profit 2: $0.164
Extended Target: $0.160
➡️ Bias: Bearish continuation below key moving averages and weak derivatives data.
🟢 Buy Setup (High Risk – Countertrend)
Entry (Buy): $0.198 – $0.202
Stop Loss: $0.188
Take Profit 1: $0.228
Take Profit 2: $0.258
⚠️ Only valid if strong bullish rejection appears at the $0.200 support zone.
Market Bias Summary
Trend: Bearish
Momentum: Weak
Derivatives Sentiment: Bearish
Key Level to Watch: $0.200
📌 This is not financial advice. Always manage risk and trade with proper confirmation.
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Digital asset manager Grayscale has released its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook, identifying ten major investment themes it believes will define the next phase of the cryptocurrency market. The firm frames 2026 as the “Dawn of the Institutional Era”, marking a structural shift in how capital flows into digital assets and how market performance evolves.
In contrast to earlier cycles driven largely by retail speculation, Grayscale expects the coming years to be shaped by institutional allocation, regulatory clarity, and sustainable on-chain revenue models. The report also explicitly states that quantum computing risks and digital asset treasuries (DATs) are unlikely to be meaningful price drivers in 2026.
The Dawn of the Institutional Era in Crypto
According to Grayscale, macroeconomic uncertainty, rising sovereign debt, and persistent fiscal deficits are strengthening demand for alternative stores of value. At the same time, regulatory frameworks—particularly in the United States—are becoming clearer, enabling broader participation from advised wealth, pension funds, asset managers, and corporations.
Grayscale notes that institutional capital is already changing the nature of crypto market cycles.
> “In each prior bull market, Bitcoin’s price increased by at least 1,000% over a one-year period. This cycle, the maximum year-over-year gain was approximately 240%. We believe this reflects steadier institutional buying rather than speculative retail momentum,” the report stated.
This shift suggests a market characterized by lower volatility, deeper liquidity, and longer-term capital commitments.
Grayscale’s 10 Crypto Investment Themes for 2026
1. USD Devaluation Risk Drives Demand for Alternative Assets
Grayscale’s first theme centers on the long-term risk of US dollar debasement. Rising public debt and structural fiscal imbalances could erode confidence in fiat currencies over time.
The firm highlights Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as the most credible digital stores of value due to their scale, decentralization, and network security. Zcash (ZEC) is also cited as a smaller but potentially relevant hedge due to its privacy-focused design.
> “Only a limited subset of digital assets meet the criteria for a store of value—broad adoption, high decentralization, and constrained supply growth,” Grayscale noted.
2. Regulatory Clarity Enables Broad-Based Industry Growth
Grayscale views regulatory clarity as a systemic catalyst rather than a tailwind for any single asset. Clear rules around market structure, custody, and compliance could unlock participation across spot markets, derivatives, tokenization, and DeFi.
The firm expects bipartisan market structure legislation to be a key development in 2026, while warning that political gridlock remains a downside risk.
3. Stablecoins Become Core Infrastructure for On-Chain Finance
Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, stablecoins are positioned to play a growing role in payments, derivatives collateral, treasury management, and online commerce.
Grayscale expects rising stablecoin volumes to benefit:
Base-layer blockchains such as Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and BNB Chain
Infrastructure providers like Chainlink
A wide range of DeFi applications
The firm also notes that prediction markets and cross-border payments could further accelerate adoption.
4. Real-World Asset Tokenization Enters a Growth Phase
Although still early, asset tokenization is highlighted as a long-term growth opportunity. Grayscale believes that regulatory progress and infrastructure maturity could unlock exponential growth.
> “By 2030, it would not be surprising to see tokenized assets grow by approximately 1,000x,” the report suggested.
Platforms such as Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and BNB Chain, along with interoperability solutions like Chainlink, are expected to capture value as adoption expands.
5. Privacy Technologies Become Essential for Financial Adoption
As on-chain finance scales, privacy-preserving technologies are becoming increasingly critical. Grayscale points to projects such as Zcash, Aztec, and Railgun, as well as confidential transaction standards on Ethereum and Solana, as areas of growing importance.
The firm also notes that improved privacy may need to be paired with enhanced identity and compliance solutions for DeFi to gain broader institutional acceptance.
6. Blockchain Mitigates AI Centralization Risks
Grayscale identifies decentralized blockchain networks as a counterbalance to the centralization of artificial intelligence.
Projects such as Bittensor, Worldcoin, Near, and Story Protocol are positioned to provide decentralized compute, data verification, and identity frameworks, potentially supporting more open and transparent AI ecosystems.
7. DeFi Activity Accelerates, Led by Lending Protocols
Decentralized finance continues to gain momentum, with lending protocols emerging as a core growth driver.
Grayscale highlights platforms such as Aave, Morpho, and Maple Finance, as well as decentralized perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid.
> “The growing liquidity and interoperability of DeFi position it as a credible alternative to traditional finance for users seeking on-chain solutions,” the firm stated.
8. Next-Generation Blockchains Target Mass Adoption
The report emphasizes experimentation with high-performance blockchain networks designed for scalability and improved user experience.
Grayscale references Sui, Monad, MegaETH, and Near as examples of architectures suited for emerging use cases such as AI micropayments, real-time gaming, high-frequency trading, and intent-based systems.
9. Institutional Investors Focus on Sustainable Revenue
Grayscale expects investors to increasingly evaluate digital assets based on on-chain revenue and fee generation, rather than narratives alone.
Blockchains such as Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and BNB Chain, along with applications like HYPE and PUMP, are cited as leaders in on-chain revenue generation.
10. Staking Becomes a Default Feature of Investment Products
With improving regulatory clarity, staking is expected to become a standard component of crypto investment products.
Grayscale notes that liquid staking providers such as Lido and Jito could benefit, while higher staking participation may eventually compress reward rates.
Why Quantum Computing and DATs Are Not 2026 Price Drivers
Despite ongoing research into quantum computing risks, Grayscale does not expect this issue to materially impact crypto prices in 2026. The same applies to digital asset treasuries (DATs).
While DATs are likely to remain a permanent fixture in institutional portfolios, Grayscale believes they will not generate sufficient new demand—or selling pressure—to move markets meaningfully next year.
Final Thoughts
Grayscale’s 2026 outlook underscores a maturing crypto market increasingly shaped by institutions, regulation, and economic fundamentals. As speculative excess gives way to structured capital allocation, performance may depend less on hype and more on utility, revenue, and integration into global financial systems.
📊 The institutional era has begun—are portfolios positioned for it?
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Global markets are increasingly rethinking their interest-rate assumptions as investors await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, scheduled for Thursday. The data is expected to be a key catalyst not only for traditional markets but also for Bitcoin and the broader crypto sector, which remain highly sensitive to shifts in US monetary policy expectations.
Just days before the CPI print, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has challenged the dominant market narrative that inflation remains persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, arguing instead that inflation is being overstated due to statistical distortions rather than genuine economic overheating.
FedWatch Signals Shift as Markets Price in Fewer Near-Term Cuts
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now assigning a 75.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its January 2026 meeting, reflecting growing uncertainty around the timing and pace of policy easing.
This reassessment comes as Miran contends that underlying inflation dynamics are already much closer to the Fed’s goal than headline data suggests. In his view, policymakers risk overtightening financial conditions if they continue to react to lagging or mechanically inflated data components.
> “Underlying inflation is already running very close to the Fed’s 2% target,” Miran wrote in a post on X. “Most of the remaining overshoot is the result of quirks in statistical measurement, not excess demand.”
Shelter Inflation: A Lagging Indicator Distorting the Big Picture
A central pillar of Miran’s argument focuses on shelter inflation, one of the largest and most persistent contributors to core inflation readings.
Miran noted that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, measures housing costs across all tenants, including those locked into long-term leases. Because rents are only updated when leases renew, official shelter inflation lags real-time market conditions, which have already shown meaningful cooling.
According to Miran, this structural lag is now artificially inflating core inflation readings, masking the fact that current market rents have been decelerating for months. If policymakers rely too heavily on this backward-looking data, they may underestimate the degree of disinflation already underway.
Core Services Inflation and the Problem with Portfolio Management Fees
Miran also addressed core non-housing services inflation, highlighting portfolio management fees as a prime example of statistical distortion.
These fees are calculated based on assets under management (AUM) rather than actual service costs. As equity markets rise, measured fees can increase mechanically—even when real fees charged to consumers are flat or declining due to long-term competitive pressure in the asset management industry.
As a result, official inflation metrics may show elevated price pressures despite falling real costs for consumers, further skewing policymakers’ interpretation of inflation trends.
> “It would be foolish to chase statistical quirks rather than focus on actual consumer prices,” Miran warned, emphasizing the risk that policy could become unnecessarily restrictive.
Rethinking Tariffs and Goods Inflation
On the topic of goods inflation, Miran pushed back against the popular assumption that US tariffs are a major driver of price increases.
Citing trade elasticity research, he argued that exporters, not consumers, absorb most of the tariff burden, limiting the pass-through to final retail prices. Even under conservative assumptions, Miran estimates the total impact on consumer prices to be around 0.2%, suggesting the effect is temporary and closer to statistical noise than a lasting inflation impulse.
This challenges the narrative that trade policy represents a significant inflationary risk heading into 2026.
Forward-Looking Data Signals Renewed Disinflation
Miran’s views are increasingly echoed by external economists. Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics pointed to a range of forward-looking indicators suggesting that disinflation may re-accelerate over the next six months.
Wong highlighted that core CPI goods prices are trending lower again, potentially into mid-2026. She also argued that markets may be underpricing the scale of future rate cuts, especially if disinflation continues to broaden beyond housing.
> “The Fed can cut next year,” Wong wrote on X, adding that expectations for policy easing in 2026 may still be too conservative.
Why CPI Matters for Bitcoin and Risk Assets
Together, these arguments sharpen a growing internal debate within the Federal Reserve: are policymakers still fighting inflation rooted in 2022 supply shocks, or responding accurately to current economic conditions?
With CPI due on Thursday, investors will be watching closely to see whether the data confirms Miran’s claim that inflation is overstated or forces markets to maintain a more hawkish stance.
For Bitcoin and crypto markets, the implications are significant. A softer CPI print could reinforce expectations of earlier and deeper rate cuts, weakening the US dollar and supporting risk assets. Conversely, a hot CPI could delay easing expectations and pressure crypto prices in the near term.
Final Thoughts
As markets head into the CPI release, the debate is no longer just about inflation levels—but about how inflation is measured and whether monetary policy is already tighter than necessary. If Miran’s assessment proves correct, the Fed may find itself cutting rates in 2026 sooner and more aggressively than markets currently expect.
📉📈 Will CPI validate the disinflation narrative—or force another rethink of rate expectations?
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Ethereum continues to show signs of weakness even as large institutional players increase their exposure. Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion has doubled down on its long-term strategy by purchasing an additional 102,259 ETH over the past week — marking its largest accumulation since the previous disclosure.
This latest acquisition brings BitMine’s total Ethereum holdings to approximately 3.96 million ETH, valued at around $11.82 billion at current market prices. The company has made its ambition clear: to ultimately control 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
In a statement released on Monday, BitMine Chairman Thomas Lee highlighted that 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for digital assets, citing more crypto-friendly U.S. legislation, clearer regulatory frameworks, and growing support from Wall Street. According to Lee, these macro tailwinds reinforce BitMine’s conviction that the strongest phase of the crypto bull cycle may still lie ahead, justifying its aggressive ETH accumulation strategy — internally referred to as the company’s “5% alchemy goal.”
Beyond Ethereum, BitMine also holds 193 BTC, a $38 million investment in Worldcoin (WLD) treasury assets, stakes in Eightco Holdings, and approximately $1 billion in cash reserves.
Thanks to this latest ETH purchase, BitMine has become the second-largest crypto treasury company globally, trailing only Strategy, while officially ranking first in Ethereum treasury holdings, surpassing SharpLink Gaming.
However, this rapid expansion comes with notable risks. According to data compiled by Maartunn, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, BitMine is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $3 billion.
Reflecting market concerns, BitMine’s stock price fell 9% on Monday, coinciding with the release of the updated holdings report.
Ethereum Price Outlook: ETH Eyes the $2,850 Support After a 5% Drop
Ethereum saw $174 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $141.8 million, according to Coinglass data.
ETH’s recovery attempt was decisively rejected near the $3,100 resistance, triggering a sharp 5% decline on Monday. Price action is now hovering dangerously close to a key support zone around $2,850.
If ETH fails to hold above $2,850, downside pressure could intensify, potentially dragging price toward the $2,600 support area. A deeper correction may expose the next major demand zone near $2,380.
On the bullish side, Ethereum must reclaim $3,100 and break back above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) to re-establish a sustainable uptrend.
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped below the neutral level, signaling weakening momentum, while the Stochastic Oscillator is approaching the oversold zone. A confirmed oversold reading could act as a catalyst for a short-term relief bounce.
Trading Plan – ETH/USDT (Short-Term Setup)
🔵 BUY SCENARIO (Support Reaction)
Buy Entry: 2,850 – 2,800
Take Profit 1: 3,000
Take Profit 2: 3,100
Stop Loss: 2,720
Bias: Short-term rebound / oversold bounce
🔴 SELL SCENARIO (Support Breakdown)
Sell Entry: Breakdown & retest below 2,800
Take Profit 1: 2,600
Take Profit 2: 2,380
Stop Loss: 2,930
Bias: Continuation of corrective move
⚠️ Always wait for confirmation and manage risk properly. Market volatility remains elevated.
Final Thoughts
Despite strong institutional accumulation, Ethereum’s price action is still driven by technical structure and liquidity conditions. Whether ETH holds the $2,850 zone or breaks lower will likely define the next major move.
What’s your take — is this smart money accumulation or just catching a falling knife?
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Stablecoin issuer Circle, the company behind USDC, has announced an agreement to acquire Interop Labs, the original development team behind the Axelar interoperability network. While the deal is intended to strengthen Circle’s cross-chain infrastructure ambitions, the announcement triggered a sharp selloff in Axelar’s native token (AXL), raising concerns across the community.
At the time of writing, AXL traded around $0.11, down nearly 13% in 24 hours, extending a broader downtrend that has persisted for weeks.
What Circle Is Actually Acquiring — and What It Isn’t
Circle clarified that the acquisition covers Interop Labs’ team and proprietary technology only, and does not include:
The Axelar Network
The Axelar Foundation
The AXL token
All three will continue to operate independently under community governance, with Axelar’s open-source intellectual property remaining open source.
Circle stated that it expects the acquisition to close in early 2026, subject to customary approvals. Once finalized, the Interop Labs team will be brought in-house to accelerate development of Circle’s Arc blockchain and its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP).
“Our goal is to make blockchain connectivity seamless,” said Nikhil Chandhok, Circle’s Chief Product and Technology Officer. “Bringing the Interop Labs team into Circle will accelerate the Arc and CCTP roadmaps toward building the hub for multichain internet finance.”
Common Prefix Takes Over Axelar Development
With Interop Labs transitioning to Circle, Common Prefix, a long-standing contributor to Axelar, will now lead development of the network.
In a recent post on X, Common Prefix outlined its 2026 roadmap priorities, which include:
Expanding Axelar to support new protocols and asset classes
Reallocating resources away from underperforming chains
Introducing co-staking of blue-chip assets to enhance economic security
Preparing Axelar for institutional adoption through improved privacy and compliance features
Exploring gasless bridging, enabling zero-fee cross-chain transfers using idle gateway capital
The team emphasized its strong academic and technical credentials, highlighting deep expertise across Ethereum, XRP Ledger, Solana, Sui, Cosmos, and Bitcoin, including contributions to BitVM. Common Prefix described Axelar’s interoperability layer as a critical component of a future multichain ecosystem.
Why Did AXL Price Fall?
Despite assurances of independence, markets reacted negatively. The selloff reflects a combination of structural and psychological factors.
First, investors appear concerned that the original builders are leaving. While the network remains operational, the departure of the founding development team creates uncertainty about long-term execution and vision.
Second, the situation has reignited debate around the “token versus equity” problem in crypto. Several commentators argued that while token holders funded Axelar’s growth, they have no claim on the value generated by the acquisition, since tokens do not represent ownership.
Crypto commentator Nick called the deal “very concerning,” stating that AXL holders may feel used as a monetization layer while the most valuable components were ultimately sold to Circle.
Another analyst, Steady Crypto, echoed this sentiment, noting that tokens offer no contractual guarantee that development teams will remain committed long-term: “Until crypto solves this, every token is a bet that the team sticks around — with zero obligation that they will.”
Broader Market Context Matters
It is also important to note that AXL’s decline did not occur in isolation. Over the same period, the broader crypto market fell nearly 4%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both trading lower. This broader risk-off environment likely amplified AXL’s downside move.
What Comes Next for Axelar?
While confidence among AXL holders has been shaken, Axelar’s future now depends on Common Prefix’s ability to execute its ambitious roadmap and demonstrate that the network can thrive without its original developers.
If the new team can deliver meaningful upgrades, attract institutional use cases, and reinforce Axelar’s role as a core interoperability layer, trust may gradually return. Until then, the AXL token will likely remain sensitive to sentiment shifts and execution risk.
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