Moquete

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THE ASIAN ASPHYXIATION: SAUDI ARABIA CUTS SUPPLY AND SOUTH KOREA ENTERS EMERGENCY
The oil market has ceased to be a matter of supply and demand and has become a matter of geography and survival. The near closure of the #StraitOfHormuz has forced Saudi Aramco to take drastic measures that are already hitting China and South Korea hard.
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Saudi exports to China for May will be reduced by almost half (around 20 million barrels). Riyadh is prioritizing its own security and redirecting what little it can export through the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea, avoiding Hormuz. But the message is clear: there is not enough crude for everyone.
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Aramco has raised the premium on Arab Light crude to a historic high of $19.50 over the benchmark for May. It is the highest price ever recorded. Saudi Arabia is charging a "war price" due to the physical shortage of barrels, which is suffocating Asian refineries.
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President Lee Jae-myung has been blunt in stating that this is not temporary. Seoul is already implementing rationing measures (such as asking for "shorter showers") and sending delegations to Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Congo in a desperate search for sources that do not depend on the Persian Gulf. For Korea, Middle Eastern oil is no longer a safe option.
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The diversion of ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds a 20-day delay to the cargo. This means that even if the war were to end tomorrow, the shortage in Asia will last for months. The "risk premium" in maritime insurance has increased by 400%, making every trip a nearly impossible financial gamble.
Asia is paying the highest price for the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. While China resorts to its strategic reserves and South Korea accelerates its energy transition "by force", the world discovers that the #Petrodollar is being replaced by #RouteSecurity.$BTC

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Financial Déjà Vu? Why Gold Could Repeat Its Historic Collapse of the 1980s

The minutes from the #FederalReserve (Fed) have sent a clear message: the fight against structural #Inflation in the U.S. is far from over. This scenario, marked by prolonged high interest rates, bears a striking resemblance to the crisis of the 1980s. Back then, restrictive monetary policy caused #Gold to enter a downward trend that drastically reduced its value for nearly two decades.

The conflict in the #MiddleEast and instability in the Strait of Hormuz act today as the main drivers of this pressure. As long as energy prices remain high due to geopolitical premiums, inflation will continue to force the regulator to maintain a strong #Dollar. Just like in the oil crises of the 70s, rising energy costs are the factor preventing the monetary easing that markets had hoped for.

The reaction of investors to the #FOMC has been decisive, halving the odds of a rate cut by the end of the year. This adjustment in expectations favors liquidity in currency over precious metals. Historically, when the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets (like metals) rises, #Investment shifts towards financial instruments with higher returns.
An additional risk factor is the behavior of #CentralBanks.

In the past, massive sales of gold reserves by institutions like the Bank of England flooded the market, sinking prices.

Currently, although many countries continue to accumulate reserves, a prolonged period of high rates and a dominant dollar could force some regulators to reallocate their assets, putting pressure on the supply of #PreciousMetals.
In conclusion, the future of the market depends on the resolution of tensions in the #EnergySector and the firmness of the Fed. $BTC

The market perceives the truce as fragile, given the increase in oil prices

Oil prices rose at the beginning of the session on April 9 amid growing doubts about the sustainability of the two-week ceasefire previously announced in the Middle East. Market participants are increasingly expressing their concern about the possibility that energy supply through the Strait of #Hormuz remains limited, despite diplomatic statements, according to Reuters.

At 3:25 GMT (6:25 Moscow time), Brent futures had risen by $1.96, or 2.07%, to $96.71 per barrel. U.S. WTI crude rose even more, by $2.60, or 2.75%, to $97.01. At 8:29, prices continued to rise to $97.08 and $97.6, respectively.

During the previous session, both benchmark crudes fell below the psychological barrier of $100 per barrel. The drop in WTI was particularly notable: it was the most significant since April 2020 and was due to expectations that the ceasefire would lead to a rapid resumption of #MaritimeTransport through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, just 24 hours later, optimism gave way to caution. Analysts note that market participants are reluctant to completely discount the geopolitical premium in prices, given the lack of clarity regarding possible agreements between #UnitedStates and #Iran and their impact on oil exports. Experts estimate that the likelihood of a quick and complete resumption of transit through the strait remains low, which increases price volatility.

The situation is complicated by ongoing instability in the region. Israel continued its attacks on Lebanese territory, prompting a strong response from Iran. $BTC

Gold prices fall amid the conflict with Iran and U.S. employment data.

The stock market week of April 6 began with a decline in the price of gold. Prices were pressured by the strength of the dollar, amid the continued pressure on global markets caused by rising oil prices due to the prolonged conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Strong U.S. labor market data also negatively influenced the price, reducing expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, according to Reuters.

At 4:52 GMT, the spot price of the precious metal fell by 0.5%, to $4,652.89 per ounce. Gold futures for April delivery in the United States remained at $4,678.70 amid low trading volume.

Many markets in Asia and Europe remained closed for holidays. Data released on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 178,000 jobs in March, the highest figure since December 2024, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. These results pressured gold prices lower, as yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar index rose, making dollar-denominated gold less attractive.

Brent crude prices continued to rise amid the conflict in the Middle East, which continues to affect global energy supply. The threat of a worsening situation in the region is fueling inflationary expectations. However, analysts point out that this has not led to a strengthening of gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset.
The continued rise in oil prices is fueling fears of higher inflation. Meanwhile, high-interest rates are reducing the demand for gold, which, unlike fixed-income assets, does not generate income.$BTC

Oil production will increase in May, according to the results of the OPEC+ meeting

Amid the deepest energy crisis since the early 21st century, caused by the widespread conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+ countries decided to reach a preliminary agreement to increase oil production limits by 206,000 barrels per day in May.

The plan was announced by delegates and shared with Bloomberg. Sources from Reuters and other industry publications also reported on the progress of the agreement.

The eight countries, including Russia, Kazakhstan, and Saudi Arabia, had previously committed to voluntary production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement. However, the group is now willing to symbolically increase quotas in response to changing global market conditions.
Observers highlight that this decision will be debated in a meeting of the alliance's monitoring committee and will be formally approved via videoconference.

Reports and analyses indicate that the potential to increase production remains extremely limited in practice. Much of the producers' potential is currently blocked due to geopolitical events.

Countries with the potential to increase production currently cannot quickly bring additional volumes to market. For example, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait face export restrictions. Russia, although included in the agreement, is under the pressure of sanctions and restrictions that hinder rapid production expansion.

Amid this turmoil, global commodity prices are also experiencing record fluctuations. Brent and WTI have surpassed $110-120 per barrel. This reflects not only the physical reduction in supply but also the psychological pressure on the markets.$BTC

Massive flight cancellations have occurred worldwide due to the war in the Middle East

According to The Telegraph, massive flight cancellations have begun to occur worldwide due to the war in the Middle East.

In recent days, around 7% of all scheduled flights have been canceled, representing more than 7,000 departures. In North America, the cancellation rate reached 14.6%.

The reason is the sharp increase in fuel prices following the escalation of the situation in the Middle East.

The price of aviation kerosene has risen from $742 to over $1,710 per ton.

At the same time, Brent oil rose to $116 per barrel.
The situation is exacerbated by the reduction of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one fifth of the world's oil passes.

According to analysts, a severe aviation fuel shortage could occur in less than a week.
Airline ticket prices have already increased by between 15% and 20% in recent weeks, and demand is starting to decline.$BTC

Crisis in the Middle East🚨⛽️: Oil hits record highs after key blockade

The week begins with a strong jolt in energy markets. Brent crude has surged by 59% in just one month, marking its largest increase since the Gulf War in 1990. This spike responds to the intensification of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran, coupled with recent attacks by Houthi rebels on strategic infrastructure, which has pushed Brent to $115 and WTI above $101.

The determining factor of this crisis is the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery through which 20% of the world's oil and gas supply flows. Uncertainty is total, as the conflict has spilled over into the Persian Gulf, extending towards the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. These points are now critical centers of tension that keep global hydrocarbon logistics on edge.

Despite President Donald Trump mentioning the existence of diplomatic contacts in Islamabad to seek a sustainable solution, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The arrival of U.S. military reinforcements to the region and reported attacks on infrastructure in Tehran suggest an escalation of hostilities rather than a near ceasefire, fueling investors' distrust.
Export logistics are under maximum pressure.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to divert a large part of its production to the Red Sea, but even these alternative routes are under threat after attacks that damaged terminals in Oman over the weekend. JP Morgan analysts warn that if these routes fail, reliance on the SUMED pipeline in Egypt will be the only remaining option, further complicating the supply chain. $BTC

The worst possible scenario could become a reality: risks to oil and LNG supply
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A month after the attacks in Iran, the global energy market faces its second worst crisis scenario. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial point through which 19 million barrels per day used to transit, is practically closed to maritime trade. This paralysis has generated a global deficit of 12 million barrels per day, leaving refineries, especially in Asia, operating at minimum capacity and desperately seeking alternatives.

Despite reports of military successes, the logistical reality is critical: insecurity for navigation persists. Iran has demonstrated the capability to strike key infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, keeping the global economic agenda in suspense. The risk of a greater escalation, including attacks on pipelines and regional refineries, threatens to unleash unprecedented infrastructure destruction and a prolonged supply crisis.

The impact on prices is alarming and is already being felt in the markets. Brent crude has risen by 59% since the conflict began, surpassing $115. However, the most dramatic situation occurs in derivatives: in the Asian market, jet fuel and diesel have doubled in value in just 30 days, reflecting a raw material shortage that is beginning to affect all international markets.

Although Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are trying to offset losses through alternate routes in the Red Sea and Fujairah, these efforts are insufficient. The loss of more than 10% of the world's oil supply cannot be covered solely with strategic reserves. Furthermore, the threat of a potential blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis would further complicate logistics to the Suez Canal, increasing costs and delivery times.$BTC

The global diesel market has experienced a record price increase amid the Middle East crisis

The global energy market continues to be affected by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has caused unprecedented increases in diesel prices in most countries. According to the latest analytical data, countries in Asia and Africa have been the most affected, where dependence on energy imports and the disruption of supply chains in the Persian Gulf region have caused a genuine price crisis.

The Philippines led the increase in diesel prices, with a catastrophic rise of 81.6%. The situation is no less critical in Nigeria and Malaysia, where prices have risen by 78.3% and 57.9%, respectively. Experts point out that this dynamic threatens transportation accessibility and food security in these countries, forcing governments to urgently reconsider their budget expenditures.

Western economies also failed to escape the negative impact of the conflict, despite having their own reserves and attempts to diversify their supply sources. In the United States, the price of diesel increased by 41.2%, which has already affected freight rates and final consumer prices.
The situation in Europe is not much better: Germany, the region's largest economy, recorded an increase of 30.9%.

Analysts highlight that this pressure on the industrial sector will inevitably lead to accelerated inflation and a decrease in purchasing power in these countries. Amid burning tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty about future supply, global stock markets are showing extremely high volatility, preparing to reach new all-time highs. $XRP

🛢️⚠️ GLOBAL EMERGENCY: The IEA releases 400 million barrels, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the "Gordian Knot"

Since its founding in 1974, the IEA has never coordinated an action of this magnitude. The volume: 400 million barrels (of which the U.S. contributes 172 million and Japan 80 million).

The reason: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 28 has removed 20 million barrels daily from the market.

These 400 million only cover 20 days of consumption of what normally passes through the Strait. If Mojtaba Jamenei maintains the blockade beyond April, strategic reserves will simply evaporate.

As Forbes rightly points out, announcing the release is not the same as having the crude at the refinery.

Investors see that physical supply has fallen to almost zero in the Gulf. As long as tankers cannot navigate without being attacked by drones or missiles, the risk premium will keep Brent above $100-110, regardless of how much oil is extracted from storage caves.

The IEA is already suggesting drastic measures to governments: mandatory telework, reduction of speed limits, and license plate rotation in cities.

For the first time, there is an effort to involve partner countries like India, Colombia, and Vietnam to also open their strategic taps, seeking a buffer against inflation.

Get ready, because although the IEA tries to help, the reality of March 2026 is harsh:

European and Latin American governments are likely to introduce massive subsidies to prevent the price of gasoline from reaching €3.00, but this will increase the public deficit and could lead to tax hikes at the end of the year.

28% of the IEA release consists of refined products (diesel). This is key for trucks that bring food. If diesel continues to rise, the price of fresh products (meat, milk, vegetables) will see an increase of 10-12% this month.

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THE RETURN OF KING COAL: Prices soar 20% in March and put global living costs at risk

The Newcastle market (Australia) has seen thermal coal rise to 150 dollars per ton, its highest level in over a year. The factors are a geopolitical and climatic twist:
The domino effect of Ormuz: With the Strait of Ormuz blocked (as we saw in previous notes), the price of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and oil has skyrocketed. This has forced power plants in Asia and Europe to return to coal to avoid shutting off the lights.

Indonesia, the giant of the sector, has limited its quotas to 600 million tons (down from 790 last year), while China records its lowest production growth in a decade. Less coal available for a demand that keeps rising.

While global coal sells for 219 or 255 dollars, Russian coal in the Far East is quoted at 144 dollars. This makes it irresistible for powers like India, which faces a summer with potential blackouts if it doesn't secure massive supplies.

💸 How will this impact your wallet?
Don't be mistaken, colleague: even if you don't buy coal for your home, this increase will hit you on three direct fronts:
Many countries still depend on coal to balance their electricity grid when gas is expensive. The 20% increase in the price of the mineral will translate, sooner or later, into a fuel adjustment surcharge on your electricity bill. Prepare to see increases of between 10% and 15% on bills in the coming months.

Metallurgical coal is essential for making steel and cement. If coal prices rise, the cost of construction and manufacturing cars or appliances rises. This means that buying a home or renovating the kitchen will be significantly more expensive this year.
The rise in coal usually goes hand in hand with that of oil. As the entire energy matrix becomes more expensive, the cost of transporting food and goods increases. $ETH

Not only oil and gas: the conflict with Iran has affected sulfur supplies

Supply disruptions of sulfur to global markets, caused by the escalation of the conflict with Iran and the drastic reduction of maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz, have already begun to affect prices and supply chains of industrial raw materials. Analysts warn that the consequences could impact several sectors of the global economy, from agriculture to high-tech manufacturing, according to ft.com.

According to the publication, due to the escalation of hostilities, maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has virtually ceased.

Sulfur, a byproduct of oil and gas refining, plays a vital role in the industrial chain. It is used in the production of mineral fertilizers, chemical reagents, metallurgical materials, and electronic components, including microchips. As a result, any disruption in the supply of this resource quickly spreads throughout the global economy.

According to analysts from Argus and sector operators, sulfur prices in China, the world's largest consumer, have increased by approximately 15% since the start of the conflict, reaching a record 4650 yuan per ton. This is approximately equivalent to 672 dollars.

Logistics is creating additional pressure. Sulfur is transported by sea along with other raw materials, and maritime logistics was one of the first victims of the conflict.

Experts point out that the impact of the crisis is not limited to the chemical industry. More than 60% of global sulfur is used in the production of fertilizers, mainly phosphates. Prolonged supply disruptions could lead to an increase in agricultural input prices and consequently food prices.

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A hard blow for the global economy: the price of diesel in Europe has risen by 55% in 10 days, exceeding 1,100 dollars per ton

The price of diesel in Europe has increased by 55% in 10 days and has surpassed 1,100 dollars per ton, according to Reuters.

Traders and analysts warn that such a sharp increase in prices could slow down global economic activity.

Nitrol Trading, based in the United Arab Emirates, points out that diesel has proven to be one of the most vulnerable energy products amid the conflict in the Middle East.
Diesel is the basic fuel for transporting goods, agriculture, and mining.

Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global diesel supplies have fallen by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day, which represents around 5-12% of global consumption.

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Oil prices have already exceeded 110 dollars: G7 countries debate the release of emergency reserves, Dmitriev mocks Kallas and von der Leyen

The G7 countries are discussing an emergency release of oil from their reserves, reports the Financial Times.
G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency meeting amid a sharp rise in oil prices, which have already surpassed 110 dollars per barrel.

Representatives from the International Energy Agency are also participating in the meeting.

The possibility of releasing between 300 and 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves into the market is being discussed.
In this situation, the special envoy of the Russian president, Kirill Dmitriev, mocks the "forecast" of European strategists Ursula von der Leyen and Kaja Kallas.

"With oil above 110 dollars, where are the smiling strategists Ursula and Kaya heading?" wrote X, the CEO of RDIF, on social media.$BTC

A global crisis is looming: Qatar halts liquefied natural gas production following Iranian attacks

Qatar is completely halting the production of liquefied natural gas following attacks from Iran, Reuters reports.

The strikes affected the facilities of the energy hubs of Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, where the main liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are located. As a result, the production of LNG and related products has been temporarily stopped.

The resumption of the operation of the gas liquefaction plants will take two weeks. $BTC

Qatar is the largest LNG producer in the world and accounts for approximately 20% of global supplies.

The shutdown of production is expected to have a significant impact on the global energy market and cause an increase in gas prices in Europe and Asia.

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Iran imposes blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: suspends tanker traffic

Iran has imposed a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic has been suspended, reports Fars.
The world could face serious delays in oil supply.

Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been halted, reported the Iranian news agency Fars.