Morita_k

Unable to sleep, suddenly enlightened, updating a pinned message:
1. The trading market is a chaotic system (a term from logic), influenced by countless factors, so candlestick charts can only summarize past occurrences and cannot accurately predict the future. It's like humans cannot accurately predict the weather a week from now.
2. The emergence and digestion of market information will cause all factors to trend towards a single direction, so you should pay attention to periodic news and sudden news.
3. Because it is a chaotic system, theoretically your profits depend on mathematical probabilities, whether going long or short.
4. In essence, the probability here is actually the win rate and the profit-loss ratio.
5. Please pay attention to calculating the actual mathematical expectation of profits, for example, a win rate of 90% with a profit-loss ratio of 1:4. In reality, the mathematical expectation of profit is 1*0.9=0.9, and the mathematical expectation of loss is 4*0.1=0.4, so even if the unpopular approach of 'take profit and run, endure losses' is used, as long as the mathematical expectation calculation is reasonable, you can achieve stable profits.
6. So why do all the 'coaches' and 'financial bloggers' tell you that Martingale is doomed?
7. A. Because when you made a profit using 5x leverage, you unfortunately used 10x leverage when losing this time, the overall mathematical expectation will be negative, so try to maintain consistent leverage.
B. When your assets grow to 100k, a 40% drawdown means you lose more money, your resolve is shattered, emotions affect your win rate, and the overall mathematical expectation changes again.
C. Classic mathematical expectation requires a sufficiently large number of occurrences, which means you need a sufficiently long trading career. If you unfortunately fall to a very low asset level, do you have enough time to recover?
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Do not get tangled in their claims that the profit-loss ratio must be positive, do not disdain a 1% profit, beating fees, a more stable win rate, and reasonable mathematical expectations are the essence. (This does not mean you shouldn't use stop-losses; try using wider stop-losses.)
#悟道

只能用唉声叹气来形容自己了

没啥心态又手痒，我决定试试100倍满仓杠杆的快乐，不过是从1.5u开始做，看能不能4天干1500

🌿

??????.好好的，突然插针，还这么准

This is the resistance level

扛了一下午回本没走，又开始下跌趋势了，心累

果然头铁了

What do you think this pullback will reach? 2960? 2945? 2915? 2895?

傻逼了，毫无支撑，所以不要一睡醒就做单

With 25 times leverage, I only made this little in a day. I even doubt I'm a useless person. Just now, I ran away without earning even 10 points. Clearly, I set a target of 3059. Why can't I make any progress recently?

难得格局一把，结果又是抗单，都抗的今天利润浮亏了，格局不了一点

最近越来越没法格局，总是赚了点就想跑，这可咋办

对于有港卡的特别是ZABank的，估计是一波利好，可以直接出美元了。不过手续费60美金属实是有点高

Resisted for more than three hours, but still sold out. Not in good condition today, will talk again tonight.

If you don't get on the bus, it will be very difficult to have the courage to get on again.

Once you achieve results, the official will grant you adjustment permissions

The weekend really has no liquidity

Just canceled the order, ready to sleep, and the market just followed the original target, I am a waste.

Today. There were too many operations to get off midway. I feel like I have no passion left. I told my mom that if there’s extra money in the account before the Spring Festival, I want to pay off some of the debt and go travel. My mom said to save the extra money first, which made my depression come out.
There’s a feeling that once the debt is paid off, I actually have no goals in life and it’s better to just prepare for the days ahead and let it go.