$BTC 📉 *ARK INVEST: BITCOIN HASN'T HIT THE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE YET* 📉
Analysts from Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a new report on BTC.
*WHAT THEY SAID:*
1. *BTC hasn't hit the bottom of the current cycle* Reason: The price hasn't dipped below the range of $50k to $54k. This is the average price that retail and long-term investors paid. History shows that BTC usually visits this zone before making a strong reversal.
2. *Whales aggressively bought the dip* In Q1, long-term investors increased their position by 69%. They went from 2.13 million to 3.60 million BTC. This was the fastest absorption since 2020.
3. *Price context* BTC peaked at $77k following the US-Iran ceasefire news, but didn't break through $80k. Today it trades at $77,514. It has fallen from its high, but is still far from the $54k zone that Ark is monitoring.
But the aggressive buying from whales indicates that major players see the correction as an opportunity. I'm going to follow their lead.
$DOGE 🐕 *DOGE: OPEN INTEREST HIT $1.1B AS SPOT NETWORK COOLS DOWN* 🐕
Dogecoin has surged, but it wasn't due to cash buying. It's pure derivatives play.
*THE DATA THAT MATTERS:*
1. *Leverage exploded* Open Interest shot up to $1.099 billion. Long/Short ratio at 2.6433. There are 2.6x more traders going long with leverage than those shorting. Alphractal calls it a “bullish regime with risk appetite.”
2. *Spot network crashed* Active wallets: 37,197 -44.88% in 7 days Daily transactions: 26,189 -51.27% On-chain volume: $118.12M -41.25% Translation: nobody's using DOGE. Just betting on the price.
3. *Social activity cooled off* Alphractal's CEO, João Wedson: “Engagement only rises when a bullish trend is confirmed. In uncertainty, it stays weak.” Posts about DOGE plummeted.
*THE RISK:* High leverage + weak spot = powder keg. If it drops 5%, it will liquidate leveraged longs and accelerate the decline. Alphractal warns: “unilateral positions become vulnerabilities.”
*WHAT SUPPORTS IT:* DOGE isn't overpriced based on on-chain metrics. MVRV 0.686 | Price $0.1383 below realized value NUPL -0.459 = “capitulation zone.” Most are in loss. RSI neutral, MACD slightly positive. Still below the 200 MA.
*CAUTION:* Short-term rise driven by derivatives, lacking real demand. If leverage continues to rise and spot doesn't bounce back, any correction could trigger a cascade. If spot wakes up, there’s room for recovery.
_This text does not constitute investment advice._
$BTC 📉 *ARK INVEST: BITCOIN HASN'T HIT THE BOTTOM OF THE CYCLE YET* 📉
Analysts from Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, released a new report on BTC.
*WHAT THEY SAID:*
1. *BTC hasn't hit the bottom of the current cycle* Reason: The price hasn't dipped below the range of $50k to $54k. This is the average price that retail and long-term investors paid. History shows that BTC usually visits this zone before making a strong reversal.
2. *Whales aggressively bought the dip* In Q1, long-term investors increased their position by 69%. They went from 2.13 million to 3.60 million BTC. This was the fastest absorption since 2020.
3. *Price context* BTC peaked at $77k following the US-Iran ceasefire news, but didn't break through $80k. Today it trades at $77,514. It has fallen from its high, but is still far from the $54k zone that Ark is monitoring.
But the aggressive buying from whales indicates that major players see the correction as an opportunity. I'm going to follow their lead.
#nchcamposaula Starting now in crypto? THE 3 LAWS OF POSITION SIZE
Law 1: Pocket change
Only put in what you can afford to lose; if it goes to zero, you curse for 5 minutes and go have a beer. If it goes to zero and you can't sleep, it's too much.
Law 2: Never "all in"
All in = everything in 1 coin. Not even BTC deserves all in. Exchanges fail, governments ban, hacks happen. Always diversify.
Law 3: A 50% drop will happen
BTC has dropped 80% several times. If you have R$500 and it falls to R$250, can you handle it? If not, you have too much money.#AprendaeGanha
If you have never invested, start here. Don't skip this class.
*CRYPTO IS NOT LOTTERY. IT'S A MINEFIELD.*
*THE 3 REASONS THAT BREAK BEGINNERS:*
*1. BUYS BECAUSE IT ROSE* Saw RAVE go from $0.025 to $28 and wants to enter at $25. This is like arriving at the end of the party when the beer is gone. Those who bought RAVE at $25 lost 98%. *Rule: If it has already risen 1000%, you arrived late.*
*2. PUTS MONEY THEY NEED* Takes money from rent, the bill, the child's school and puts it in DOGE because Elon tweeted. Then DOGE drops 30% and you sell at a loss to pay the bill. *Rule: Only use money that can become zero and you continue sleeping.*
*3. FALLS FOR “GUARANTEED PROFIT” SCAMS* Guy on Instagram promises 5% a day, “arbitrage”, “robot”. Sends money to him. He disappears. *Rule: If there is guaranteed profit, it is a guaranteed scam. Crypto does not have fixed income.*
*WHAT IS CRYPTO IN 3 LINES:* 1. *Bitcoin = Digital gold.* Limited, hard to create, people save it. 2. *Ethereum = World computer.* Runs applications, contracts, games. 3. *Altcoin = New company.* 99% fail. 1% becomes Google. You don’t know which one it is.
*YOUR HOMEWORK TODAY:* 1. *Do not buy anything for 7 days.* Just read. 2. *Open an account at a major brokerage:* Binance, Mercado Bitcoin, Foxbit. Just that. 3. *Memorize:* “If I don't understand, I don't put money in.”
$AAVE Did we reach the bottom of AAVE.? Forget the crack that happened. The panic has passed now it's time to look for the bottom and buy in. The market rewards those who study the metrics and get in well positioned.
Aave did the right thing. It froze before bleeding. Now the market will test $75k on BTC and $85 on AAVE. If it holds with L.S Positive. <0.7, it's the bottom. If it fails, wait for $70k BTC to buy.
The next 24 hours are of volatility. Turn off leverage, turn on the metrics.
CryptoQuant article confirmed: XRP is in the same setup as RAVE before exploding +105%.
*The 4 pieces of evidence:*
1. *60% drop + negative funding for months* = Whale and retail 100% sold. This is *L.S Posit. <0.7* for a long time. Maximum panic. 2. *Price stopped falling at $1.3-$1.5* = Seller got tired. *B.S Vol.* dried up. When short doesn't push down anymore, it’s because the strength is gone. 3. *O.I. rose to $2.83B +5.95%* = New money coming in with old shorts still active. *O.I. rising at the bottom = uptrend coming.* 4. *Liquidation $5M short vs $1.5M long* = Short 3x more stopped out. The squeeze has already started slowly.
- *XRP now* has negative funding + O.I. rising.
*Plan:* - *Buy:* If it closes 4h above *$1.49* with O.I. falling. Stop $1.38. Targets $1.65 → $1.85 → $2.20. - *DO NOT buy* if O.I. rises sharply with price rising. That’s a trap.
*Rule:* When everyone is sold and the price stops falling, the next movement is violent upwards. Shorts have to cover.
*XRP has 57.42% dominance of BTC falling + overall panel 65% buy.* If BTC consolidates, the sold altcoin will explode. XRP is candidate #1.
This is not investment advice. It’s my reading. Save and make your own and see if it aligns with mine. Once the rocket takes off, goodbye.
If this scenario confirms, we are facing another opportunity. XRP cleared all long, filled with shorts, stopped falling, and now shorts are being stopped out. Is this the bottom?
$GUA Small bills having a party, larger bills stepping out of position. Every caution is little.
Zetoshi X
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So guys, I’ve been watching $GUA coin for about a month now. We told everyone to buy around $0.40, and now we’re already up around 50% from our entry that’s solid profit.
I hope everyone who held is already printing cash. But honestly, I still believe this has the potential to go above 1$ if you stay patient. Give it time — maybe 10, 20, or even 30 days.
At the same time, don’t forget risk management. Always set your stop-loss according to my signals.