哟西妮基君

Old Trump is making bold statements again: The next Federal Reserve Chairman must significantly lower interest rates!

The old man has come to blow the market again. He said he would soon announce the next Federal Reserve Chairman candidate and claimed that this Chairman would advocate for a significant reduction in interest rates. The old man has always liked to put pressure on the Federal Reserve, and this time he directly previewed the Chairman's candidate + policy direction, which means he has understood expectation management.

If the news is true, it would undoubtedly be a super positive for global liquidity. If interest rates really drop significantly, it means the market's faucet will be turned on again, the dollar may weaken, and risk assets are likely to welcome a new round of valuation boost.

However, while lowering interest rates is a good thing, it may also reflect increasing concerns about an economic recession. Moreover, the Federal Reserve Chairman is not determined by the President's words alone; it also depends on Congress's attitude and the subsequent implementation of actual policies. Is there a possibility that this is just Trump making another verbal easing for the election?

In any case, the market has already voted with its feet. If the dollar weakens, non-dollar assets like gold and bitcoin are likely to react first. If there is really an increase in interest rate cut expectations in the coming weeks, we might be able to position ourselves in some interest rate-sensitive assets in advance.

In short, Trump's words have become one of the biggest macro variables this year. I suggest everyone keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's personnel changes in the near future, but don't easily go all in; be careful that the news may turn negative when it lands.

Additionally, I really like a chain game called Seraph, and the new season started today. New players receive a free set of three value-added items worth a hundred dollars, which is quite generous. Interested friends can give it a try, relax while monitoring the market; it's still highly playable, so get to it!
#加密市场观察 $BTC $BNB $SERAPH

What's happening! Is BNB Chain about to launch a new killer application?

I just saw a major announcement from the official Mandarin account of BNB Chain, stating that a brand new stablecoin will officially debut on the chain soon, aiming to integrate liquidity across various application scenarios, specifically designed for large-scale applications. Is this an attempt to connect the on-chain DeFi, gaming, and payment scenes, creating a one-coin-to-rule-them-all?

From the wording, it seems to be more than just a regular stablecoin; it might be a super stable asset with native yield, seamless cross-chain functionality, or an upgraded compliant custodial version. After all, the BNB Chain ecosystem currently lacks applications, but what it needs is a liquidity vessel that can connect all the scenarios.

If it can truly integrate liquidity across various scenarios, it would undoubtedly be a huge benefit for the BNB Chain ecosystem. The efficiency of funds between applications would improve, and users wouldn't have to shuffle around in different pools. But the key question is, is the mechanism transparent, and can a balance be found between trust and efficiency?

Lastly, I have to ask, could this be another significant attempt by Binance at a compliant stablecoin? After all, the phrase 'large-scale applications' implies a certain level of strength and licensing that can't be taken lightly. In summary, there is much to look forward to, but don’t rush into FOMO. Let's wait for the white paper and mechanism to be released, and see if it’s true innovation or just another scene-stitching monster.
#ETH走势分析 $BNB $BTC $ETH

cz also has times when it gets trapped... Let's just say it's fashionable to get trapped first and then build, haha
$BTC $BNB $ETH
#加密市场观察

Is Japan really going to raise rates three times in a row? The market is already shivering...

The current game of interest rate hikes in Japan. The most certain thing is that the rate decision on December 19 is set to change, and the market has long been betting on a series of hikes.

Don't be fooled by the fact that this time it might only increase by 25 basis points (from 0.5% to 0.75%), but anyone with a discerning eye knows that this slight increase is far from enough. There is widespread speculation that the Bank of Japan is genuinely determined to bring rates back to a neutral range, and the market has even started to price this in, with the possibility of ultimately raising to 1.25%. In other words, it's betting on three consecutive rate hikes.

History will not simply repeat itself, but it can serve as a reference. The last time Japan raised rates consecutively was from March 2024 to January 2025, with rates rising from -0.1% to 0.5% over 10 months. If the pace picks up this time, market liquidity is likely to be continuously tightened.

Currently, Japan is indeed in a difficult position both internally and externally, with prices soaring, inflation exceeding 2% for three consecutive years, and the public constantly criticizing the central bank for raising rates too slowly, with real rates being low enough to be considered unchanged. Rate hikes have become a foregone conclusion, but the market is more afraid of consecutive hikes. Coupled with the fact that December coincides with the Christmas holidays in Europe and America, liquidity is already poor, and the recent market fluctuations can be seen as a reflection of panic.

Of course, there are many factors that influence asset prices, and rate hikes are just one of them. But at this critical juncture, any signal of consecutive rate hikes is enough to prompt global funds to reposition. I recommend everyone to watch more and act less in the near term, and fasten your seatbelts.

Speaking of which, I recently paid attention to a project called KapKap, which I heard is set to have its token generation event (TGE) early next year, and preparations for airdrops have already begun. It has also secured $10 million in funding, led by Animoca Brands. Interested friends can keep an eye on the follow-up; I have a feeling it won’t be bad...
#加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The market is waiting for signals again. On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, some have already run ahead. The whole world is waiting for the U.S. non-farm data to be released at 21:30 tonight.

Gold has risen a bit, avoiding risks.
Crude oil has slipped to around $56, with demand expectations clearly not strong.
Bitcoin has dropped to 85,000.

Right now, everyone has a similar consensus. The non-farm data can be weak, but it cannot collapse. As long as there are no major surprises, even if bad news lands, the market might still catch a breath. Tonight is destined to be another sleepless night. Will it continue to explore the bottom, or will it rebound after all the bad news is out? Let's keep an eye on the market and act accordingly.

Volatility is high, but maintain a steady mindset. Risk control is always more important than betting on direction.
#ETH走势分析 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH $BNB

The market is once again facing bad news. After a month of talk about Japan raising interest rates, I thought the market had digested it all... But when it actually came, the market still panicked... Japan is completely indifferent 😢
$ETH $BNB $ETH #加密市场观察

Stunning five minutes! Binance and Wintermute join forces to crash the market?

Binance and market-making giant Wintermute jointly liquidated over 100 million USD in long positions in just five minutes!

Goodness, although such lightning-fast sell-offs are not uncommon in extreme market conditions, given the current sensitive period, it indeed sends chills down one’s spine. Many brothers probably have to tearfully top up their margin or are directly forced out of their positions.

However, that being said, whether this action was triggered by risk control or was a premeditated harvesting is still hard to say. But what can be confirmed is that the tighter the market liquidity, the greater the impact of large institutions' instantaneous operations on the market. In the future, when encountering sudden rises and falls, we really have to first see if there are whales engaging in “collective activities.”

Lastly, a reminder to brothers trading contracts: recently, you must control your positions well and set your stop losses. Don’t wait until your account is liquidated to remember how to write the words for risk control. The market is always full of opportunities, but once the principal is gone, you really have nothing left.
#ETH走势分析 $BTC $BNB

Breaking! I just came across a message that made the pancake in my hand taste bland—The Bank of Japan is reportedly preparing to start dumping $534 billion (approximately 83 trillion yen) worth of ETFs next month, claiming it's to stabilize the economy...

Wow, this move is at a half-trillion dollar level, the market liquidity is going to be drained at this pace! Is this a prelude to a super siphon starting up? To be honest, if Japan really dumps U.S. Treasuries and ETFs on such a large scale, global asset prices will definitely tremble. Once the dollar liquidity tightens, the stock market, cryptocurrency space, and bond market will all face difficulties. Especially in the cryptocurrency space, which is extremely sensitive to liquidity, large sell-offs could trigger risk-averse sentiments that might lead to a collapse.

However, this kind of news can be true or false, and we will have to see what happens next. But one thing is certain: if central banks around the world start self-rescue selling, then the market in 2026 better be prepared for tough times.

Lastly, I weakly ask, now that Japan has started selling U.S. Treasuries, will the Federal Reserve secretly step in to take over...?
#加密ETF十月决战 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH $SERAPH

Indeed, no matter the industry, having the right boss is very important...

Taylor Swift's era tour has just concluded, and aside from leaving behind a record-breaking box office myth, she also did something that made everyone in and out of the industry give a thumbs up. She awarded approximately $197 million in bonuses to over ten thousand members of the touring team who fought alongside her.

This tour, recognized as the highest-grossing in history, generated box office revenue between $2.07 billion and $2.2 billion, attracting nearly 10 million spectators. This nearly $200 million gesture of thanks covered everyone from front-line dancers and musicians to behind-the-scenes technicians, transportation, and all staff, acknowledging their contributions to this musical feast.

Since the bonuses were distributed as a whole package and there are vast differences in job responsibilities and working hours, the official distribution plan has not been disclosed. Currently, only the news that each truck driver received about $100,000 seems credible, while the specific amounts for other positions remain a mystery. Therefore, various online speculations about an average of a million per person are circulating.

Regardless, in the performance industry, being able to give back so generously to the entire team after achieving tremendous commercial success, Taylor Swift's action undoubtedly sets a benchmark for being a good boss. This is not just a sharing of money, but a public acknowledgment of the value of behind-the-scenes workers. This sentiment is worth more than any specific number.
#美国ADP数据超预期 $BTC $BNB $SERAPH

Mining accident site! Over 200,000 mining machines in Xinjiang were seized. Are they really going to cut the power this time?

I saw several people sharing this matter, and Reuters broke a big story: a batch of mines in Xinjiang has been operating secretly against the ban since November, stealthily restarting mining machines. Unexpectedly, just a month later, 13 departments joined forces to shut them down, sealing over 200,000 mining machines in one go!

It is said that they had previously invested too heavily in data centers, and the AI computing power cards couldn't keep up, plus there weren't any legitimate AI businesses, resulting in everything being diverted to mining for survival. The most ridiculous part is that domestic computing power once surged to 15%-20% of the global total, which is like turning the electricity meter into a whirlwind, right? 😂

Now, it's all good; the mining machines are confiscated, and the coins mined are said to be 'watered down' in the market. No wonder the market this month is like going down a slide; it turns out there are indeed aftereffects of the mining disaster... This thing, when it strikes, it strikes hard; don't hold onto the lucky mindset of stealing electricity. Next, there might be even more idle data centers being targeted. It seems that the path of domestic mining is really going to be completely cut off.

But speaking of which... will so many second-hand mining machines quietly flow overseas? Or will certain hydropower-rich areas secretly take over again?
#加密市场观察

Under the glow of old Trump, the wealth story of his eldest son, Donald Jr., is quietly becoming a new model in the crypto circle.

At this year's Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, Donald Jr. admitted, “Crypto has become a core part of our business.” The weight of this statement is now confirmed by estimates from Fortune magazine: his personal fortune has skyrocketed from approximately $50 million to around $300 million in just one year, a sixfold increase. The core engine behind this is the Trump family's full bet on the crypto business.

His crypto landscape is quite clear👇

World Liberty Financial ($WLFI ) and stablecoin operations constitute the main body.

The yet-to-be-unlocked World Liberty tokens and equity in American Bitcoin mining companies represent future growth expectations.

In addition to achieving great success in the crypto world, his investments in traditional sectors are also flourishing:

The 2 million shares of SPAC company New America Acquisition I Corp that he holds saw the stock price break $10 last week, bringing in over $20 million in floating profit overnight.

He also holds stocks in several politically connected companies worth about $10 million.

The two properties under his name (in New York and Jupiter, Florida) have each appreciated by about $500,000 over the past year, with a total valuation of $12 million.

Furthermore, as the fines from the Trump Organization fraud case were overturned by the appellate court, his net worth increased by about $5 million.

Donald Jr.'s wealth trajectory clearly indicates that the Trump family has made crypto assets a core strategy for expanding their wealth map. This is not only a personal investment success but also a symbolic case of a political family embracing emerging asset classes. While the market pays attention to policy trends, it might also consider the scripts written in real money by these pioneers.
#美联储降息 #加密市场观察

CZ personally came forward to refute rumors, and as expected, it was AI...

Friends, the grand performance of the Federal Reserve last week has just come to an end. The market hasn't caught its breath yet, but we need to turn our attention to this week. There are a few things that may quietly influence the upcoming rhythm.

On Tuesday evening (21:30), we will see the first timely non-farm payroll data in two months. The significance of this report lies not in how pretty or ugly the numbers are, but in its first real test of what the U.S. economy is like after the interest rate cut this week. The market sentiment needs this anchor point.

Immediately following, on Thursday evening (21:30), the more critical CPI inflation data will be released. If the non-farm report looks at physical strength, then CPI looks at body temperature. Having just taken the medicine of an interest rate cut, whether inflation's body temperature has truly stabilized will directly determine whether the market begins to doubt if "the medicine was too strong."

Secondly, the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates on Friday. However, this has been speculated for a long time, and the expectations have long been digested. Perhaps, when the shoe drops, the market can actually breathe a sigh of relief, shifting from bearish to bullish. What if…

Additionally, a few signals from the market itself also need to be noted.

The AI sector has been feeling a bit under the weather lately, with Broadcom's pullback and the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields putting pressure on it. Next week, the focus isn't on its immediate recovery but rather on observing any signs of stabilization, which will determine whether the most active funds dare to return.

Gold and silver are shining brightly, one hovering at historical highs and the other having already set a new high. Behind this is the logic of seeking safety in turbulent times and the dual narrative of resisting currency depreciation. With positions high, short-term volatility may intensify, so be prepared mentally.

Finally, don't forget the calendar effect. As the end of the year approaches, Wall Street managers also have to submit their reports. To lock in annual profits and make year-end performance look better, they often tend to reduce positions and seek stability. If macro data next week is not strong, the market may enter a phase of overall weakness and converging volatility, reminiscent of garbage time. In short, this week the market will shift from a narrative of excitement over interest rate cuts to a calm assessment of economic reality. We need to look at the data, read the room, and understand the little thoughts of year-end funds. Stay steady; the road is still long.
#美联储降息 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH $SERAPH

Ladies and gentlemen, the big event tonight is basically set——the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

The market has already cast its vote with real money: the prediction platform Polymarket shows a 96% probability of a rate cut, and the CME FedWatch Tool points to an 87.6% probability. Therefore, the interest rate decision at 3 AM itself holds little suspense.

The real highlight is after the rate cut. This meeting is far more than just a simple interest rate adjustment; it is more like a political pressure test and will set the tone for the policy landscape in 2026. The focus is on two aspects:

Will liquidity be released?
What the market is most concerned about is whether the Federal Reserve will send a clear signal of expansion after stopping balance sheet reduction. For example, will it announce that starting from January next year, it will purchase short-term Treasury bills at a scale of $45 billion per month, injecting new liquidity into the market? This will be key in determining the tightness of the funding situation.

How deep are the internal divisions?
This meeting may be the most controversial in recent years. Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 have already expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing. Such a level of division has not been seen since 2019, highlighting an increasing politicization tendency within the Federal Reserve. The policy influence game between current Chairman Powell and shadow Chairman Hassett will directly affect future policy paths.

What does this mean for the market?
If the statement leans hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks, downplaying easing prospects), market volatility will increase.
If a dovish signal is released (mentioning economic risks, implying liquidity support), it will be beneficial for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).

In short, tonight is not only the conclusion of the 2025 policy but also a key window to observe how the Federal Reserve makes choices under political pressure and to glimpse the direction for 2026. Buckle up and prepare for volatility.
#美联储FOMC会议

Bank of America has been approved to trade Bitcoin, marking a new phase in cryptocurrency policy. Currently, the United States is a global leader in both Bitcoin holdings and stablecoin issuance, and this policy shift will further consolidate its market dominance.

From a strategic perspective, this move will have multiple impacts. First, the direct participation of traditional financial institutions will bring unprecedented incremental funds to the crypto market, pushing Bitcoin to become a more mainstream asset class. Secondly, by deeply binding the core financial system with the crypto ecosystem, the United States effectively controls the pricing power and rule-making authority of the global crypto market. Finally, as the banking system embraces Bitcoin, the U.S. can both enjoy the asset appreciation brought by its market value increase and maintain monetary influence through the U.S. dollar stablecoin system.

This policy choice may seem sudden, but it actually aligns with its long-term interests, balancing risk management and strategic gains while maintaining a leading position in financial innovation by bringing crypto assets into a controllable regulatory framework. It is foreseeable that other countries will face pressure to either follow suit or seek alternative policy paths.
#加密市场反弹 #美SEC推动加密创新监管

CZ has made another statement in Abu Dhabi: the old saying that Bitcoin goes through a bull market every four years may be coming to an end, and now we need to look at the super cycle. In plain terms, it means that institutions and large funds are entering the market, and regulatory trends are more influential than halving events.
He also mentioned the national Bitcoin reserves, saying that if the United States takes the lead in accumulating Bitcoin, other countries are likely to follow suit.

The term 'super cycle' sounds quite impressive, but ultimately it boils down to where the money flows, that’s where the wind picks up. When institutions invest real money, the volatility might not be as friendly to retail investors, and it may truly become a case of big fish eating small fish, with slow bulls trampling on urgent bears. As for national accumulation of coins? If a major power really takes action, many smaller countries might end up cursing while secretly opening their wallets.

However, that being said, regardless of how the cycles change, those who can hold on might still win big, while the newcomers who chase trends will still get washed out. The market is becoming more institutionalized, but the wild energy in the crypto circle is unlikely to change in the short term. Stay calm and watch the play, hold onto the spot assets, and wait for the wind to come 🫡
#加密市场观察

The impact of this interest rate meeting on the market primarily hinges on the game of expectation management.

For the current chairman Powell, his core task is to seek a balance between calming the market and restraining excessive optimism. Even if the decision is to cut rates, the wording will likely tend to downplay the future easing path to avoid the market forming continuous aggressive rate cut expectations. Especially in the current context of obvious internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, he needs to act cautiously.

For the market, investors are eager for a clear and sustainable policy path. Although the position of the shadow chairman has gradually been priced in by the market, during the transitional period before the formal power handover, Powell's short-term discourse power still dominates.

Therefore, the key point of this meeting is whether Powell is willing and able to meet the market's demand for clear guidance to what extent.

If the meeting fails to provide sufficiently clear future signals, then expectation gaps will lead to significant increases in market volatility. At that time, asset prices may fluctuate repeatedly between the current chairman's caution and the shadow chairman's expectations, until a new policy consensus is formed.

In simple terms, this is a short-term game about "whose story is more credible." Before Powell officially hands over, the market will continue to primarily interpret and price his wording.
#美联储FOMC会议

Those who can truly grasp the pulse of the market are often not those who chase every fluctuation, but those who understand how to wait and hold firm.

From a macro cycle perspective, market consensus is starting to solidify. Predictions from several mainstream institutions point to a clear path: the Federal Reserve's easing steps may take two steps in the first half of next year, expected in March and June. This means that after the interest rate cut in December this year, the market's expectations for action in March next year will begin to take shape, and the macro sentiment around February next year is expected to enter a period of optimism, which may resonate with the traditional "spring excitement" or "Chinese New Year market" period.

Observing recent market behavior is quite interesting. Whenever prices break through some short-term technical supports, panic emotions instantly surge. This reflects a common misconception: many investors misinterpret daily fluctuations as trend reversals in larger cycles. The short-term noise of the market often obscures its long-term rhythm; the true direction of weekly or monthly charts requires the discipline to filter out noise, rather than being swayed by intraday candlesticks. For spot holders, the key is to avoid being pulled away from their track by the violent fluctuations of a high-leverage market.

In terms of the current market structure, aside from the always lively MEME sector, projects like $ASTER and $SPIEN that have fundamental storytelling support may offer more traceable and participatory opportunities. The market always provides opportunities in segments; for investors accustomed to swing trading, now is the time to look for such structural opportunities.

Looking further ahead, the second half of next year may welcome a more decisive layout node. From a trading perspective, if the market can undergo a deep correction, such as Bitcoin returning to a key area of $70,000, it will accumulate more energy for the next cyclical rise.
#美联储重启降息步伐

Boss Yi has once again made a beautiful bottom! Data shows that he fully invested around $2700 in $ETH, and his floating profit has now exceeded 22%. He really hit the nail on the head with this timing.

When he previously announced 'full investment', he mentioned six coins, five of which are rising, with only $ASTER currently showing a floating loss of nearly 20%. However, to be clear, except for the clear cost of ETH, the costs of the other coins are estimated based on the market price at the time he tweeted (2:30 PM on November 23), for reference only. Only he knows his true positions and costs.

Regarding this operation, Boss Yi explained that he firmly believes $ETH is severely undervalued, so he plans to hold it long-term and will not be playing short-term swings. His logic is very clear:

Macro liquidity expansion: Global interest rate cut expectations + crypto-friendly policies, the liquidity is about to come.

The industry's fundamentals have changed: Stablecoins have become massive, traditional finance (RWA) is wildly going on-chain, all of which require Ethereum as the core settlement layer.

He feels this is the reason he is heavily invested in $WLFI and $USD1, and it also serves as the basis for the revaluation of Ethereum's value.

Finally, Boss Yi still sincerely advises everyone: The volatility in spot trading is already exciting enough, and absolutely do not touch contracts. That thing is a 'life-and-death' gamble for most people; not only do you lose money, but it also drains your mental energy. With that energy, it’s better to focus on your main job and side business, and invest after making money.

To put it simply, his strategy is to watch the big trends, hoard core assets with spot trading, and then leave it to time. This approach is indeed much steadier than staring at contracts and risking everything every day.
#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析

Hahahaha so typical #meme