ObaAgon

I only post on Binance Square, X, and the TG group. All other platforms charge under false pretenses, please be cautious!
Please recognize my account name ObaAgon, there are too many impersonators!
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Explanation:
Bullish: 'Define high point'. Bullish directional energy. Bullish main behavior dynamics;
Bearish: 'Define low point'. Bearish directional energy. Bearish main behavior dynamics;
Starting with the defined high point. Bullish directional dynamics, dynamics will have time dynamics, regardless of how bullish actions are made. Ultimately, it is for defining the high point.
So if the bulls do not enter at the highest point, how can it be called a high point?
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'Event-driven, event occurrence rate is only 30%'
For example, event bulls: Event bulls have event news, most people do not know that news events are going to happen, so before the event detonates, there will only be a short squeeze, and when the event occurs, there will be a direct spike. Event bulls only represent events, not bullish actions; simply stating event bulls means only events without bullish actions, which leads to only bearish actions.
During the short squeeze process before the event occurs, if the event does not happen, the price may have already been declining throughout this process.
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'A high point' does not represent a high price.
'A low point' does not represent a low price.
In terms of low points, the text is different from low prices.
For example: low price low point, high price low point. Price and point are different things.
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'Build high point' 'Build low point'
Bearish builders establishing low points is a dynamic process. Only the bearish can achieve the lowest point price; ordinary people do not have the capability to absorb large liquidity orders. Therefore, the establishment of a low point occurs after the bearish start placing orders; during this order placement period, a price low point will be produced. Before the bearish leaves, a low point will appear before moving to a high point. As time passes and comes to an end, the K-line price will show a V shape, moving from the top of V to the bottom of V and back to the tail of V, producing a process called building a low point.

#BTC

※ Breaking ※
I found the reason for the eth door just now!

The reason is that I forgot to harvest the buddy first.
$BTC
$ETH

In the process of studying cryptocurrency trading, let’s look at a rather important issue.

Since I don't know what will happen, I always end up using my own reasoning to convince myself when I see prices rise or fall.

Let’s take a look at the announcement made by pi in the early morning of the 17th. However, after the announcement was made, many people believed it was yet another useless announcement.

Here comes the question: what does useless mean?
In my observation, the logic behind considering something useless is based on the belief that there is no movement in price.

Thus, the same issue applies to BTC: investors always use the news they see as a direct reason for the price movements when they observe news appearing and see prices rising or falling.

However, in reality, most people are just randomly finding something to convince themselves, which often does not align with the actual reasons for the price fluctuations.

Let’s take a look at today’s early morning example of pi:
After the announcement was made by pct at dawn, the article mentioned to pay attention to whether buying pressure would appear after five o'clock.

Later on, at seven o'clock, there was a buying volume, but in fact, this turnover had started around six o'clock.

“Judgment” is not about finding an excuse to convince oneself after something happens, even using that excuse to convince others.

If one can let go of their opinions, subjectivity, and self-perception, and enhance their observation skills and abilities, then they would know something is about to happen before the buying pressure appears, rather than finding excuses after the fact.

Just like in the previous pi article, as long as it mentions pct will make an announcement, pct will definitely make an announcement. And there hasn't been a single error in dozens of times.

There is no medicine for regret in this world. Furthermore, investing is not about buying after a rise and feeling like one has made money. That is just an illusion.

How can one make money if they chase high prices and it doesn’t continue to rise?
#NFA (NFA, not investment advice)
$BTC
#pi

「Discovered a key coincidence that determines BTC」

MicroStrategy's Saylor mentioned in an interview on September 17 that Metaplanet will become Japan's most valuable company.

Then I checked the period from January when MicroStrategy and Metaplanet saw BTC fall until April, when Metaplanet began acquiring BTC.

After BTC prices hit bottom in April and returned to the average acquisition cost, they started to expand BTC purchases from May.

A coincidence occurred; if there was originally only MicroStrategy's fixed buying pressure, it seemed insufficient to clear the market's sell orders. However, during this period, after MicroStrategy's buying pressure was joined by Metaplanet's buying pressure, BTC prices began to rise without any adjustments, forming what is called the upward support line.

Until a few days before the crash on October 11, both MicroStrategy and Metaplanet's buying pressures stopped, and then it declined all the way to now in December.

Is this a coincidence?
And let's evaluate Metaplanet.
Currently, Metaplanet's market value is about $340 million, with Bitcoin (current price 90,000) held value far exceeding the company's overall market value mNAV by about 1.17 times.

Next, look at the world's major hotel industries:
Marriott International has a market value of about $70 billion.
Hilton Worldwide has a market value of about $63 billion.
Others like Las Vegas Sands and other resort hotel groups also exceed $30 billion.

If we consider the knowledge of MicroStrategy, there are only two ways to meet the information known by MicroStrategy:
1. If Metaplanet's total BTC holdings do not buy anymore, then BTC prices must rise to 2.27 million.
2. Metaplanet must continue to purchase 777,800 BTC.

Therefore, currently, Metaplanet only holds 30,823 btc, which indicates that the total funds have only purchased 4% of BTC.
And Saylor said that MicroStrategy, if lucky enough, hopes to acquire 2.1 million BTC.

In September, MicroStrategy revealed information about Metaplanet's continuous large-scale acquisition of BTC, and it has been proven that what he said is true.

If evaluated this way, then just the buying pressures from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet alone are enough to create a super bull market for BTC, without accounting for other institutions. Therefore, they hope that everyone will sell their BTC.
#MicroStrategy
#Metaplanet
(NFA, not investment advice)
$BTC

What is the thing that all CEXs fear the most?

The ones who care about the price more than all investors in the network are all CEXs.

What exchanges fear the most is the collapse of BTC.

If BTC were to directly drop to 0, the ones who would be the most worried are not the ones everyone considers a black swan.

Instead, all BTC held by CEXs would be forced out of liquidity, and all of it would be taken by institutions, resulting in all CEXs being expelled from the BTC ecosystem in a second. And they would never return.

Because as early-stage investors, CEXs would find themselves with no BTC at all.
The future price would have nothing to do with CEXs. The market value of CEXs would not increase due to BTC. Ultimately, CEXs will exist like retail investors.

Therefore, all CEXs fear a bear market more than any investor.
This could almost lead to all exchanges collapsing in a day.

If CEXs lack crisis awareness, they will witness the spectacle of CEXs becoming a bubble while BTC soars to the moon.

Therefore, when BTC is being suppressed in price, the ones who will be the most fearful will be CEXs.
$BTC

Keep an eye on Japan's financial reserves metaplanet. If he increases his BTC holdings, please let me know immediately. He is the main player in the next round

#NFA (NFA, not investment advice)

Although the price of BTC is currently declining, looking back at the 15th, the article mentioned that there were institutions wanting to buy coins, which indicated a potential lower point.

However, on the 15th, it was still unclear who it was. Later, just at 21:00, MicroStrategy posted that they acquired 10,645 BTC.
#NFA $BTC
(Not investment advice)

From the 13th, there have been mentions of important whales in the article on pi, and on the 14th, we need to pay attention to whether he will manipulate the market.

On the early morning of the 15th, it was mentioned that the whale came to negotiate, and as long as nothing happens, it will end.

Subsequently, it was observed that during this period the price has declined a bit, fortunately, it did not cause suppression.

On the 11th, it was mentioned that there would be a return of liquidity on the 15th and 16th, and currently, this return of liquidity is just threatening the whales, and it was also seen that it was at a low point in the early morning.

#NFA （NFA，non-investment advice）
#pi

BTC has been in the bear market since the article on the 12th, and has continued to wait for results for six days.
Subsequently, a downward trend was observed.

In the early morning article on the 15th, it mentioned building a lower point before eight o'clock in the morning.
Now we can see that before eight o'clock is the low point.
$BTC

Some people who engage in cryptocurrency trading technical analysis always love to use the saying that price fluctuations come from trading.

I just want to ask, as shown in the picture, with a trading volume of 0, how can a red candlestick be formed?
Can you explain it?

Many people clearly understand that price fluctuations are not necessarily related to trading transactions, but why do technical analysts believe that fluctuations are equivalent to transactions?

Since it's believed to be so, please explain.

Many people who don't have this question don't need an explanation.
$BTC
$ETH

Many people doubt the BTC bull market, let's interpret this comment.

Some people have commented on BTC:
As the volume of Bitcoin increases, the magnitude of each bullish surge gradually diminishes, the slope of the rise also decreases, and the speed of the rise slows down. In the future, it may be difficult to see the kind of sustained rapid surges in Bitcoin.

After reading, there are many questions:
1. What is the increase in the volume of Bitcoin?
Isn't the total amount of Bitcoin 21 million, which will always increase? Or is the Bitcoin I'm playing with different from others' Bitcoin?

2. The magnitude of the bullish surge decreases, the slope of the rise decreases, the speed of the rise slows down?
Does this mean that more and more people are selling? But the previous text calculated the total amount of BTC; selling it is just transferring it to others. After selling to someone, the other person doesn't sell, so it disappears. How do I retrieve it in the future?

3. Declines in the magnitude, slope, and speed of the rise?
Does this mean that fewer people are buying? This also means that the number of sellers is not sufficient to suppress the price. This also means that over time, 16 million (excluding the 4 million held by institutions from circulating BTC) are gradually sold to institutions. When all 16 million are sold, if the price still reaches new highs, does that mean the institutions that took them are going to sell?
What kind of strange logic is this?

4. Are the decreases in magnitude, slope, and speed of the rise implying a drop?
A drop is determined by the number of buy orders. According to statistics, the fiat and USDT from market institutions are continuously passively waiting for others to sell. To break through a large number of batch buy orders, there must be a single batch of people selling off a large amount at the same time.

However, as previously stated, there are no market participants with enough BTC to surpass the buy orders, so how can it drop?

Currently, the only way to suppress and cause a bear market is through hackers stealing institutions' BTC to sell in sufficient quantities. If there are no hackers, would institutions or exchanges give up BTC and sell everything?

Now exchanges are increasingly worried that the total amount of BTC in their exchanges is being bought up, which could lead to exchanges exiting the BTC ecosystem in the future. All exchanges are worried; would exchanges sell themselves?

Look at the institutional data linked in the previous text confirming this situation
$BTC
$ETH

Tucker Carlson believes BTC was created by the CIA, and I have some thoughts on this:
1. Bitcoin's code was fully open-sourced in 2009, with 17,000 full nodes operating in sync worldwide. Even if it were proven tomorrow that Satoshi Nakamoto is an alien, the CIA, or even Hal Finney himself, no one can shut down the network, change the rules, or steal the coins in your wallet.
Unless someone can hack into thousands of nodes and rewrite the consensus, what impact does it have on you or me if 1 million BTC just sits there for over a decade without moving?

2. I hold BTC, and the private key is in my hands; who Satoshi Nakamoto is has nothing to do with me. Gold won't turn into scrap metal just because we know who mined it first.

3. Even if I knew how evil and bad the person who created BTC is, what does that have to do with me? Is there anything more evil than fiat currency? Is the dollar really just, or is it just the fiat currency of some country? Now everyone knows who the creator of the dollar is, and no one is dumping dollars; people are scrambling to collect them, and those who don't want them can give them to me.

Conclusion: My opinion is that the current market is dominated by short sellers who are technically judging that we are entering a bear market. In order to profit from their short positions, they continuously spread panic, and these actions seem to me more like those intending to deliberately manipulate prices. This is even more intentional than announcing who Satoshi Nakamoto is.
$BTC

The article mentioned on the 3rd that it is not easy to go long on BTC, and the upward path will be very bumpy.

So far, the price has only seen a few hundred points or a thousand points of new highs in each rebound.

After the interest rate cut announcement on the 11th, the article mentioned the inability to go long, predicting a pullback. Subsequently, it fell by four thousand points.

The bumpy situation of speculating on the upside is mainly due to institutional bulls taking advantage of market investors' judgment on the bear market, continuously waiting for sentiment to ferment, prompting more people to sell BTC.

Therefore, this is not a bear market; this is the accumulation of a bear as explained in the previous text.

Please make sure to read my self-introduction explanation at the top of my article first. If you don't understand, please give the explanation text to Ai.
$BTC
$ETH

The total amount of BTC across all exchanges has decreased to less than 2.7 million. Once the liquidity of the exchange is pressured to sell 800,000 more BTC, it will be a significant event.

Once the liquidity of the exchange is forced to sell another 800,000 BTC, the exchange's liquidity will begin to struggle to meet the buying demands of ordinary investors, and at that time, the acquisitions by investors will also affect prices.

Moreover, a more significant issue is that if the exchange's inventory decreases by another 800,000 BTC, then the exchange will need to prepare for exiting the BTC ecosystem in the future.

Future BTC exchanges will be controlled by institutional players like MicroStrategy.

However, investors in the market still believe that as long as negative news appears, the market will sell off 21 million BTC.

Investors always love to use infinite bullets for judgment.

(NFA, not financial advice)
$BTC
$ETH

"BTC Super Bull Market"
On BTC, I have not posted about the BTC translation situation mentioned in my group for a while.

This is because the current situation is similar to what was mentioned in last December's article about the main force rebuilding a historical peak, which also requires several months to prove.

Looking back at history, after the main force was first mentioned building a historical peak, the subsequent whales began to sell off a large amount of BTC. It lasted for a full three months, and data showed a collapse in whale holdings. By the end of January, Binance also announced that it had sold 4 billion BTC.

It was not until February that the historical peak defined in December was proven.

Now, in the year 2025, we are also facing a situation that will take several months to prove the super bull market.

Therefore, for the article, many investors' eyes only want to see their short-term price differences, ignoring what the main force is doing, believing they are superior to the main force.

Thus, the article that will be published after several months about the entire main force's speculation will be met with greedy rebuttals from these short-term investors. Ultimately, those who will earn less or incur losses will always be this group of people.
$BTC
$ETH

「How does interest rate reduction help drive the BTC super bull market?」

The main impact of interest rate cuts on BTC is not to judge how the US dollar is performing; we are people from the BTC community.

In the previous two articles, we discussed why "a super bull market is about to start," and under the proof that there are no whales in the entire network's BTC data, institutions like MicroStrategy, TOM LEE, and Cathie Wood have all been calling for BTC to reach 250,000.

Next, how will the upcoming interest rate cuts help BTC?

The biggest benefit of interest rate cuts for BTC is that there are a large number of leveraged loan investors in the cryptocurrency space. Many are taking out loans with dozens of times the amount by mortgaging real estate.

Interest rate cuts can lower the borrowing costs for investors and allow them to accumulate BTC in large quantities or set liquidity.

In addition to accumulating BTC, they also rely on providing liquidity in BTC after taking out loans to earn interest rate spreads.

Therefore, since the decline in the cryptocurrency market on October 11, it has been shown that many investors have been significantly deleveraging, and the deleveraging has not caused a crash above 70,000.

This indicates that the market's leverage has been cleared, and it further indicates that MicroStrategy's Saylor's astonishing statement that BTC can be bought starting with 8 is indeed true.

Once the interest rate cut is announced, a large number of non-institutional retail investors will not slowly pressure the market like institutions waiting for retail investors to sell BTC for acquisition. For retail investors, it's a direct rush into the market.

Thus, the feeling of such a situation directly conveys the power of the super bull market.
$BTC
$ETH

On pi, some whales short-sellers are trying to manipulate market sentiment through lawsuits against PCT.

Regarding such tactics, if there is a significant price drop causing collective losses for investors, investors should file a civil lawsuit against these manipulators in court when the manipulators lose.

What are your thoughts on this?
#pi
#PCT

Well said. Since I posted 13,000 tweets, it's the first time I mentioned gold. Remember not to use AI for replies, and pay more attention to what others are saying. Don't dream, be good.

Recently, many people have been paying attention to the Chinese government's ban on cryptocurrencies, especially mentioning air coins and scam coins.

They also specifically mentioned projects as examples (for instance, Pi coin), because there are too many fake Pi scams in China.

However, some people seem to believe that only those announced are considered banned air coins or scam coins.

In reality, it's not just the announced ones that are scams. Some people judge the safety of their projects based on coins that have not been announced, which is actually incorrect.

If we follow the standards defined by the Chinese government and require each project to be announced, then it would need to announce over 17,000 types of cryptocurrencies as scam coins.

Even more strictly, if we include the dead coins announced by Coingecko, then there could be as many as tens of millions of dead coins and scam coins that need to be announced as banned.

Therefore, don't think that the dog coins you invest in are safe just because they haven't been announced; in reality, 99% of them are defined as banned.
#pi