OGpi

My view on $BTC and $ETH in July: Don’t rush to call it a bull run is back—first check whether capital is flowing back.

As of June 29, BTC is still getting tugged around near the $60,000 level, while ETH is trading sideways around $1,600. The biggest issue in the market right now isn’t that there are no stories, but that risk appetite is still weak, and ETF inflows have not truly recovered.

For BTC in July, focus on two levels: first, whether the area around $60,000 can hold; second, if BTC can reclaim the $65,000 to $68,000 range, market sentiment may stabilize noticeably. Otherwise, July is more likely to be a weak rebound and a grinding base.

ETH will have greater upside elasticity, but the pressure will also be more obvious. A weak ETH/BTC indicates that capital is still more defensive; unless on-chain activity picks up, ETF inflows resume, or the ecosystem narrative heats up again, ETH may continue to underperform BTC.

Key milestones I’ll watch in July:
1. July 2: US non-farm payrolls data, which impacts expectations for rate cuts.
2. July 14: US June CPI, which determines sentiment for risk assets.
3. July 15: PPI, to see whether inflation pressure spreads.
4. July 28–29: FOMC—watch the Fed’s remarks on interest rates and liquidity.
5. Whether BTC/ETH ETFs change from continuous net outflows to net inflows.

My take: July isn’t an all-out bullish bet. It’s about whether “capital flows + macro data” can give the market some room to breathe. BTC is better as the directional bellwether, while ETH is better for rebound elasticity.

The above is just my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.

#BTC #ETH

$ALCX 这边跌得比较伤，24H -18.12%，现价 2.53，日内高点 3.20、低点 2.50，成交额不到 90 万 U。低点就在脚下，但量不算厚，我不会急着接，先看 2.5 附近能不能反复守住，守不住还会有二次踩踏。

$NOM 今天也在跌幅榜里，24H -10.71%，现价 0.00175，高点 0.00206、低点 0.00158，成交额约 1003 万 U。它的流动性比 ALCX 热一点，但波动也更薄，反抽如果站不回 0.00185 上方，我这边只当短线修复看。#现货 #跌幅榜

$THE The price increase is still leading the charts today: 24H +54.70%. Current price 0.0724; high 0.0884; low 0.0465; trading volume about 8.92 million U. It’s strong—no doubt—but the pullback from the high is also obvious. If you’re holding a position in it, I’d first see whether 0.07 can hold steady. If it can’t, don’t give back all the profits.

$ZRO is relatively not as aggressive: 24H +11.06%. Current price 0.914; high 0.919; low 0.798; trading volume about 3.26 million U. It looks more like it just pushed through the top of a range. The chasing-higher value isn’t that great; I’d rather wait for a retest around 0.88–0.90, and only then take another look if it doesn’t break.
#现货 #涨幅榜

$ALLO This one is pulling more proactively than $RPL : up 24H +46.52%. Current price: 0.3386. Intraday high: 0.368, low: 0.2236. The trading volume has already reached around 20.76 million (U). The position isn’t low; I won’t treat every candle after a breakout as an opportunity. First, let’s see whether there’s support when it pulls back toward 0.32.

$RPL is up today +20.27%. Current price: 1.78. High: 1.91, low: 1.46. Turnover is about 1.04 million (U), and the momentum looks more like a catch-up run. If it can’t break through near 1.9 and it also shrinks volume, don’t force a chase in the short term. If it can hold above 1.7, then I’ll continue watching it in my favorites. #现货 #Gainers list

$THE spot is surging hard today: +48.8% in 24H. The high hit 0.0884, the low was 0.0464, and the trading volume is about 6.69 million USDT. I won’t chase the top—I’m watching the pullback line at 0.0679. If it holds, it shows the buy-side is still there. If it drops back down, I’ll stop first and wait for the next 1H candle to reassess.#现货 #THE

$ALLO this 1H move is pulled back from 0.224 all the way; in 24H it’s up +41.1%. 0.3674 is the current high point in front of us. Right now I’m only watching around 0.325—can it hold? If it holds, there should still be a second push upward; if it falls back, I’ll exit first and not stubbornly take losses. Funding rate is 0.005%. The position is still around 60.26 million coins. Don’t chase it recklessly just because it’s forming a long upper wick. #合约 #ALLO

$BIRB This 1H is moving very hard, 24H +65.9%. The high is 0.10922, and the current price is around 0.091. I’ll keep watching the 0.0908 line—if it holds, there’s a chance for a retracement back to 0.109; if it falls back to 0.0856, I won’t stubbornly hold on. Funding rate is -0.351%, shorts are paying the cost—don’t chase too hard. #合约 #BIRB

$SKYAI This is the top 5 decliners’ list; 24H -23.929%; current price is 0.0818900. Today’s range was from 0.1077300 down to around 0.0762100. Trading volume is about 336,800 U, and open interest is 147046570. This isn’t the kind of situation where you see the drop and rush to buy—first check whether there is a continuous rebound near the low point. If it can’t reclaim, then the shorts still control the rhythm.

$TRUTH ranks #10; 24H -15.86%; current price 0.0140270. The 24H high/low is 0.0170790 / 0.0140000. Trading volume is about 39,300 U, and the funding rate is 0.005%. On my side, I’ll watch the strength of the bounce. If there’s no volume on the bounce, it’s easy for the price to grind lower again; if the line can’t be reclaimed and it won’t hold back firmly, don’t force it.

#跌幅榜 #contract

On the gainers list, I’ll take a look at two more that are less repetitive: $THE is currently ranked 4th, up 24H +37.49%. Current price: 0.06396. 24H high/low: 0.06447 / 0.04641. Trading volume is about 8.88M U, and open interest is 35.53M coins. It’s too close to the intraday high, so I won’t chase hard at this spot. I’ll first see whether there’s support around 0.061-0.062.

$PIPPIN is ranked 10th, up 24H +23.24%. Current price: 0.02068, range: 0.01678-0.02140. Trading volume is about 18.41M U, with a funding rate of 0.0157%. This one looks more like a catch-up move. It only keeps going if it can reclaim and hold above 0.021—if the line breaks, don’t try to hold on stubbornly. #涨幅榜 #合约

$MAGMA This surge is currently ranked #2 on the gainers list, with a 24H +44.18% increase. Current price: 0.53234. The range moved from 0.3666 up to 0.5859. Trading volume is about 57.49M U, with a funding rate of 0.0274%. For this kind of sudden spike, I’ll first check whether it can hold around 0.52. If it can’t, don’t treat the high chase as a strong continuation.

$SLX #6, 24H +35.38%, current price: 0.53462. 24H high/low: 0.53951 / 0.38177. Trading volume is about 213M U, and the rate is actually -0.0176%. Its volume is larger, but it’s currently hugging the highs. Chasing too aggressively has a mediocre cost-effectiveness. If it pulls back, you can still look for a chance to pick it up.

#涨幅榜 # Contract

In the pullback leaderboard, I’ll first figure out whether it’s truly bottoming out, or just a pause after a heavy drop.

$HFT 24H down 10.64%, current price 0.0084, high/low points 0.0116 / 0.0083, trading volume about 1.22 million USDT, and it’s already close to the low. I won’t rush to buy here; at least I want to see around 0.0083 that it doesn’t get broken through again. Otherwise, even if it rebounds, it can easily turn into a window to reduce positions.

$RIF down 9.43%, current price 0.1018, intraday high 0.1425, low 0.0916, trading volume about 13.73 million USDT. Its volatility is bigger than $HFT . I’ll watch to see if it can reclaim around 0.10; if it can’t, I’ll treat it as weak first.#现货 #pullback leaderboard

$RE This ratio is more明显 than most coins with higher upside. In the last 24H, it’s up 20.26%. Current price: 0.7212. It reached 0.7556 intraday, with a low of 0.5802. Trading volume is about 143 million USDT. The issue isn’t whether it has momentum now, but whether it can still hold above 0.70 after high-level turnover. If it can’t hold, I’ll lower my expectations first.

$PENDLE Up 12.35%, current price 1.528. High/low: 1.55 / 1.357. Trading volume is about 5.47 million USDT. It’s also near the day’s high, but the volume is much smaller than $RE . I’d rather wait for a pullback and confirmation than use the leaderboard’s gain as an entry reason.#现货 #gainers leaderboard

$UNI Today it’s not the most aggressive on the gainers list, but it’s more suitable for observing strength: 24H is up 15.12%, current price 3.213, intraday high/low 3.291 / 2.778, and trading volume about 27.59M USDT. My approach is first to see whether it can hold around 3.20—holding the level indicates it’s not just a one-candle pump that quickly fades.

$S On this side, it’s up 12.70%, current price 0.0252, with high/low points 0.02554 / 0.02232 and volume around 2.9M USDT. It’s very close to the day’s high; for the short term it’s strong, but I’m not in a hurry to chase—if it pulls back, I’d rather see it stay stable on reduced volume before considering.

#现货 #gainers list

On the biggest losers board, I’m not in a rush to interpret the drop as an opportunity—I first look for signs of stabilizing and stopping the decline.

$ALCX 24H -14.53%, current price 2.53, intraday high 3.68, low 2.52, and trading volume 2.72 million USDT. It’s currently almost touching the low; short-term sentiment hasn’t repaired yet. If you’re positioned in it, I would first watch whether it can hold 2.50. If it can’t, don’t stubbornly hold on just to force a rebound.

$AIGENSYN 24H -10.51%, current price 0.03115, high/low 0.0375 / 0.03036, and trading volume 14.86 million USDT. It’s more active than ALCX in terms of volume, but that also indicates there’s considerable disagreement. My approach would be to wait until it reclaims and trades back above 0.033, then see whether it shows signs of repair; otherwise, I’ll just treat it as a weak rebound.#现货 #Biggest Losers Board

In this round, I’ll look at $ALLO and $SYN separately. One follows closely along the recent highs, while the other has already moved with a wide amplitude.

$ALLO 24H +33.26%, current price 0.339, intraday high 0.3394, low 0.2236, trading volume 14.43M USDT. It’s currently too close to the high. As long as the order book continues to hold at the top, it’s fine; but once it falls back below 0.32, I’ll first treat it as short-term funds taking profits.

$SYN 24H +10.44%, current price 0.52269, high/low 0.625 / 0.42815, trading volume 28.24M USDT. It’s not lacking in strength, but the upper wicks and the amplitude are both quite large. I’d rather wait for support near 0.50; chasing at the middle is generally not a good value-for-money entry.#现货 #Gainers List

For this kind of spot order surge like that, what I care about more is whether anyone steps in during the pullback.

$TLM 24H surged to +89.86%, current price is 0.001741. The intraday high is 0.002107 and the low is 0.000914, with trading volume of 38.26 million USDT. It’s very strong, but it’s already far away from the low. I won’t chase hard after the vertical line—first I’ll see whether it can hold around 0.0016.

$UNI on this side looks more like catch-up/lag-recovery within the big-cap coins: 24H +17.78%, current price 3.273, high/low at 3.276 / 2.776, and trading volume 23.91 million USDT. Its problem is that it’s now close to the intraday high. If your position is in there, I’d first watch whether it can hold 3.15–3.20. If it can’t, don’t treat the gainers list as a lucky charm.
#现货 #gainers list

On the biggest drop list, I’ll first look at $GUA and $VELVET . $GUA is ranked #2, 24H -66.49%, current price 0.0583, 24H high/low 0.1741/0.0560, trading volume 68.61M U, funding rate -0.005%, position size about 109M. It’s already close to the low point, and any rebound is likely to be very sharp.

$VELVET is ranked #3, -61.50%, current price 0.5333, high/low 1.6400/0.4801, trading volume 251M U, funding rate -0.0043%, position size about 22.06M. With such a deep drop, I don’t want to guess the bottom. First, see whether it holds around 0.48; if the line breaks, don’t force an entry.

#合约 #跌幅榜

$BREV Ranks #5 on the gainers list, 24H +28.48%, current price 0.09123, 24H high/low 0.11128/0.07021, trading volume 1.58B U. Funding rate -0.7099%, positions about 39.19M. This kind of negative funding comes with big volatility—on the short term, it’s easy to get swept back and forth.

$STAR Ranks #6, +27.05%, current price 0.15386, high/low 0.15610/0.11212, trading volume only 3.45M U, funding rate 0.005%, positions about 8.25M. It’s strong, but the volume isn’t as thick as $BREV . I’ll first see whether it can hold above 0.15; if it can’t, I won’t force it.

#合约 # gainers list

$BIRB up the gainers ranking #2, 24H +68.83%, current price 0.09201, intraday high/low 0.10922/0.05362, trading volume about 247 million U. Funding rate -0.3243%, open interest about 60.18 million, short-side costs are not low, indicating this wave of sentiment is very crowded.

$ALLO #9, +20.49%, current price 0.30997, high/low 0.33489/0.22389, trading volume 71.43 million U, funding rate 0.005%, open interest about 58.84 million. It’s a bit more stable than $BIRB , but it’s not far from the highs. I won’t chase too aggressively on my side; if it can pull back without breaking 0.30, I’ll take another look. If it breaks, I’ll lower expectations first. #合约 # up the gainers ranking

$BTC I think this is more important than regular institutional reviews.

Previously, Strategy’s role in the market was simple: only buy, never sell. People treated it as a long-term buy-side anchor for BTC. Now the policy has changed to “when necessary, it can also sell BTC.” That’s what JPMorgan means by two-way risk. It’s not saying it’s about to crash the market right away, but that the market can no longer assume it will always stand on the buy side.

BTC is still around 617,000, and the 24H high reached 622,000, which suggests the price action hasn’t been directly crushed in the short term by this news. But I will watch two things: whether after Strategy proceeds to issue new shares to raise cash, or whether it continues to move BTC; and whether it can hold above 620,000. If it can’t, this kind of message can easily be repeatedly used by the shorts.

I don’t take this as a sign of an imminent plunge, but it does change market expectations. What the big one fears most isn’t a single sell-off, but that the “it will never sell” story starts to loosen.#BTC #Bitcoin