欧鹏同学
Occasional Trader
1.8 Years
全职加密交易员｜深耕二级市场｜币安广场每晚21点直播｜弱小和无知不是交易障碍 傲慢才是 ｜🐧84367686｜手续费8折优惠邀请码 GMD9BQ4C ｜公众号：加密十分钟｜
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You think trading relies on techniques, but in fact, trading relies on 'human'.
Many people ask me, Oupeng, can you teach me a 'sure-win' trading system, can you give me the 'most accurate' indicator? They think the essence of trading is the technique itself.
But I must say something from the heart:
Techniques are just 'Shu'; what truly determines success or failure is 'human'.
You must remember one thing —
Among the five levels of Dao, Fa, Shu, Qi, and Ji,
'Qi' is the state, 'Ji' is the tool, 'Shu' is the technique, 'Fa' is the method, and 'Dao' is the essence.
And techniques are the easiest to replicate.
But I must say something from the heart:
Techniques are just 'Shu'; what truly determines success or failure is 'human'.
You must remember one thing —
Among the five levels of Dao, Fa, Shu, Qi, and Ji,
'Qi' is the state, 'Ji' is the tool, 'Shu' is the technique, 'Fa' is the method, and 'Dao' is the essence.
And techniques are the easiest to replicate.
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This morning at nine o'clock, the short strategy shared at Binance Square was precise again.
Whether it's BTC, BNB, LINK... all are falling, the happy part is that it was precise again, the sad part is that the AAVE short position opened last night in the live broadcast is just slightly profitable...
$BTC
$BNB
$LINK
Whether it's BTC, BNB, LINK... all are falling, the happy part is that it was precise again, the sad part is that the AAVE short position opened last night in the live broadcast is just slightly profitable...
$BTC
$BNB
$LINK
GM☀️Today is 12.17 at 9 AM, currently 4-hour short positions: The bearish divergences, and those with short positions are: BTC, BNB, LINK, ZEC, SUI, WLFI, AAVE
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BNB
{future}(BNBUSDT)
$LINK
{future}(LINKUSDT)
$BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
$BNB
{future}(BNBUSDT)
$LINK
{future}(LINKUSDT)
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017｜How terrifying are trading fees? How frequent operations slowly wear you down?
Many people have a fixed self-comfort in trading:
"My skills are okay, it's just that my luck is a bit poor."
Very few people are willing to face a more brutal reality:
It's not that you can't make money, it's that the profits you worked hard for are all worn away by fees and frequent operations.
You may have experienced this feeling:
A day busy until midnight, delivering dozens of orders.
What should be chased has been chased, what should be cut has been cut, and I feel that 'I worked hard today.'
When I opened the bill at night, I saw:
The profits and losses add up to almost break even.
The fees are listed separately: consistently deducting money.
The market didn't cut you, the fees and your own hands cut you together.
"My skills are okay, it's just that my luck is a bit poor."
Very few people are willing to face a more brutal reality:
It's not that you can't make money, it's that the profits you worked hard for are all worn away by fees and frequent operations.
You may have experienced this feeling:
A day busy until midnight, delivering dozens of orders.
What should be chased has been chased, what should be cut has been cut, and I feel that 'I worked hard today.'
When I opened the bill at night, I saw:
The profits and losses add up to almost break even.
The fees are listed separately: consistently deducting money.
The market didn't cut you, the fees and your own hands cut you together.
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【Cryptocurrency Knowledge Enlightenment 60 Lectures】55: What is Blockchain Gaming?
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GM☀️Today is 12.17 at 9 AM, currently 4-hour short positions: The bearish divergences, and those with short positions are: BTC, BNB, LINK, ZEC, SUI, WLFI, AAVE
$BTC
$BNB
$LINK
$BTC
$BNB
$LINK
See original
BCH 4-hour cycle rebound failed, short position formed again
Unfortunately, this short position for BCH came too late, as the live stream opened a short position for AAVE in the evening.
$BCH
Unfortunately, this short position for BCH came too late, as the live stream opened a short position for AAVE in the evening.
$BCH
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Japan's interest rate hike is the biggest factor in this decline, and it could be the last major event in the financial sector this year. Historical data shows that when Japan raises interest rates, Bitcoin holders suffer as well.
After the last three interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin fell by 20%–30% within 4–6 weeks. As analyst Quinten detailed: Bitcoin dropped about 27% after the yen's interest rate hike in March 2024, fell 30% after the hike in July, and dropped another 30% after the hike in January 2025. So what about the hike on the 19th?
After the last three interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, Bitcoin fell by 20%–30% within 4–6 weeks. As analyst Quinten detailed: Bitcoin dropped about 27% after the yen's interest rate hike in March 2024, fell 30% after the hike in July, and dropped another 30% after the hike in January 2025. So what about the hike on the 19th?
Japan's First Interest Rate Hike on March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. This is Japan's first rate hike since 2007, ending an eight-year era of negative interest rates. The first rate hike caused Bitcoin to plummet from a recent high of 72800 to 63000, a drop of 12.5%, and then it continued to decline for a month, reaching a low of 59000. After that, it fluctuated widely for two months before prices rose again to near a new high. On July 31, 2024, there was another rate hike, with a weekly drop of 15%.
In two days, on December 19, 2025, if Japan raises interest rates again, the market may test the bottom once more and then start wide fluctuations. If Trump does not perform well, there is no hope before the Spring Festival.
In two days, on December 19, 2025, if Japan raises interest rates again, the market may test the bottom once more and then start wide fluctuations. If Trump does not perform well, there is no hope before the Spring Festival.
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Evening live broadcast room 186.43 opened a short position on AAVE for a 4-hour cycle
Let the US dollar interest rate hike be more intense!
$AAVE
Let the US dollar interest rate hike be more intense!
$AAVE
See original
Japan's First Interest Rate Hike on March 19, 2024, the Bank of Japan raised the interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0%-0.1%. This is Japan's first rate hike since 2007, ending an eight-year era of negative interest rates. The first rate hike caused Bitcoin to plummet from a recent high of 72800 to 63000, a drop of 12.5%, and then it continued to decline for a month, reaching a low of 59000. After that, it fluctuated widely for two months before prices rose again to near a new high. On July 31, 2024, there was another rate hike, with a weekly drop of 15%.
In two days, on December 19, 2025, if Japan raises interest rates again, the market may test the bottom once more and then start wide fluctuations. If Trump does not perform well, there is no hope before the Spring Festival.
In two days, on December 19, 2025, if Japan raises interest rates again, the market may test the bottom once more and then start wide fluctuations. If Trump does not perform well, there is no hope before the Spring Festival.
1. Beijing time 21:30 Non-farm payroll data release 2. Yesterday, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $224.8 million, marking three consecutive days of net outflow + market 3. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. If all expectations are not met, it will truly be a disaster!
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5 days ago at Binance Square shared the WLFI short position, it has reached the first take profit level and the second take profit level🤘 Respect!
The live broadcast room opened a WLFI short position at 0.1482 in the evening. Let's briefly discuss why I chose to short at 0.1482?
① 1 Hour: The short cycle has already formed a standard bearish structure.
First, look at the 1-hour level,
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have clearly turned down,
And the two 20 moving averages are pressing above the price,
The lower light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120 have also flattened and turned down, with all 20 breaking below 120, forming a three-dimensional bearish divergence.
What does this structure mean?
Short-term rebounds are basically pressed down by the 20 moving average, and rebounds only provide better entry prices for shorts, while going long is just going against the trend. So I'd rather wait for the price to fail to pull back and take a short around 0.1482, rather than gamble on a rebound.
② 4 Hours: 20 crosses below 120, the trend has just switched from consolidation to bearish.
The key is in the 4 hours:
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have just crossed below light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120,
The four moving averages have started to open downwards, a typical bearish ribbon has just opened;
The current price has stabilized below the four moving averages, and the upper edge of the previous consolidation zone (red FVG zone) has also turned into resistance.
What does this indicate?
The logic of 4 hours is: the previous upper edge of consolidation has begun to turn into a new round of downward “ceiling.” As long as the moving averages and FVG supply zone around 0.150～0.152 are not reclaimed, the 4-hour bearish trend will continue to dominate, and I will trade in line with the wave of the “trend just turned.”
③ Daily: Breaks below the 20-day moving average, the medium-term upward trend comes to a pause.
Let's pull back to the daily chart:
The price has effectively broken below the daily 20 moving average,
The upper 20-day moving average has started to flatten, and the previously slow upward bullish structure has been interrupted.
In other words, the medium-term upward wave has come to a pause, and we are now in a state of “below the daily 20, 4-hour bearish, 1-hour bearish divergence,” with bulls having no advantage. In this environment, my short position aligns with the medium-short term structure, rather than betting on an extreme position.
So I short in line with the trend, waiting for the trend to provide answers, rather than gambling on the bottom halfway up the mountain. I set a take profit order at the recent support of 0.1347 before bed. Good night 🌙
The above is just my personal trading record and thought sharing, not constituting any investment advice. The market has risks, and everyone should make independent decisions based on their own positions and rhythms.
$WLFI
{future}(WLFIUSDT)
① 1 Hour: The short cycle has already formed a standard bearish structure.
First, look at the 1-hour level,
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have clearly turned down,
And the two 20 moving averages are pressing above the price,
The lower light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120 have also flattened and turned down, with all 20 breaking below 120, forming a three-dimensional bearish divergence.
What does this structure mean?
Short-term rebounds are basically pressed down by the 20 moving average, and rebounds only provide better entry prices for shorts, while going long is just going against the trend. So I'd rather wait for the price to fail to pull back and take a short around 0.1482, rather than gamble on a rebound.
② 4 Hours: 20 crosses below 120, the trend has just switched from consolidation to bearish.
The key is in the 4 hours:
Light yellow EMA20 and dark yellow MA20 have just crossed below light gray EMA120 and dark gray MA120,
The four moving averages have started to open downwards, a typical bearish ribbon has just opened;
The current price has stabilized below the four moving averages, and the upper edge of the previous consolidation zone (red FVG zone) has also turned into resistance.
What does this indicate?
The logic of 4 hours is: the previous upper edge of consolidation has begun to turn into a new round of downward “ceiling.” As long as the moving averages and FVG supply zone around 0.150～0.152 are not reclaimed, the 4-hour bearish trend will continue to dominate, and I will trade in line with the wave of the “trend just turned.”
③ Daily: Breaks below the 20-day moving average, the medium-term upward trend comes to a pause.
Let's pull back to the daily chart:
The price has effectively broken below the daily 20 moving average,
The upper 20-day moving average has started to flatten, and the previously slow upward bullish structure has been interrupted.
In other words, the medium-term upward wave has come to a pause, and we are now in a state of “below the daily 20, 4-hour bearish, 1-hour bearish divergence,” with bulls having no advantage. In this environment, my short position aligns with the medium-short term structure, rather than betting on an extreme position.
So I short in line with the trend, waiting for the trend to provide answers, rather than gambling on the bottom halfway up the mountain. I set a take profit order at the recent support of 0.1347 before bed. Good night 🌙
The above is just my personal trading record and thought sharing, not constituting any investment advice. The market has risks, and everyone should make independent decisions based on their own positions and rhythms.
$WLFI
{future}(WLFIUSDT)
See original
1. Beijing time 21:30 Non-farm payroll data release 2. Yesterday, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of $224.8 million, marking three consecutive days of net outflow + market 3. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. If all expectations are not met, it will truly be a disaster!
See original
ZEC rebound failed and began to decline again. 395 opened a short position with immediate floating profit.
While the XMR short position opened in the morning remained unchanged for a day, it incurred a floating loss and was closed.
$ZEC
While the XMR short position opened in the morning remained unchanged for a day, it incurred a floating loss and was closed.
$ZEC
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016｜What is the difference between long contracts and short contracts, regarding 'bullish and bearish'?
Let's first restore a scene that can be seen every day:
Some say: "I am bullish!"
On the other side, someone shouts: "I have gone short!"
A third person comes in and says: "I am also bearish, but I haven't gone short, just holding the spot to see."
It sounds like they are all talking about direction:
Rise or fall, long or short, optimistic or pessimistic.
But if you ask a detailed question:
"So what are you right now - spot long? Long contract? Short contract? Or nothing at all?"
Out of 10 people, at least 7 cannot articulate clearly.
Today's article is to help you understand a particularly key point:
Some say: "I am bullish!"
On the other side, someone shouts: "I have gone short!"
A third person comes in and says: "I am also bearish, but I haven't gone short, just holding the spot to see."
It sounds like they are all talking about direction:
Rise or fall, long or short, optimistic or pessimistic.
But if you ask a detailed question:
"So what are you right now - spot long? Long contract? Short contract? Or nothing at all?"
Out of 10 people, at least 7 cannot articulate clearly.
Today's article is to help you understand a particularly key point:
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【Cryptocurrency Knowledge Simplification 60 Lectures】54: What is Blockchain Logistics?
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Yesterday, the US stock market was rising before the opening, so after starting the broadcast at 10 PM, I waited for 10:30 PM to see if the BNB long position could break through the oscillation range to make a long position, but obviously, I did not wait for that. Then I immediately opened a short position for BCH at 560. I had written the expectation of taking profit at 521, but BCH quickly pierced and I was afraid of profit retracement, so I took profit, missing out on 2/3 of the profit.
"Trading is not difficult, technology is not difficult, what's difficult is human nature." Indeed, it is.
"Trading is not difficult, technology is not difficult, what's difficult is human nature." Indeed, it is.
The Bank of Japan plans to announce its interest rate decision on December 19 (Friday). The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. Additionally, factors such as uncertainties regarding the successor to the next Federal Reserve Chair may lead to further declines in Bitcoin! If Bitcoin drops below 80600, Binance alone has over 1.2 billion in long liquidations, and if ETH falls below 2700, there are 1.5 billion in long liquidations.
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The Bank of Japan plans to announce its interest rate decision on December 19 (Friday). The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday. Additionally, factors such as uncertainties regarding the successor to the next Federal Reserve Chair may lead to further declines in Bitcoin! If Bitcoin drops below 80600, Binance alone has over 1.2 billion in long liquidations, and if ETH falls below 2700, there are 1.5 billion in long liquidations.
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BNB attempts to break through the key resistance level of 895 in the 4-hour cycle again. Once it breaks through, the price will stand above the 120-day market cost price, and the 4-hour cycle will enter a bullish trend! BNB has rebounded from the low point of 790 but has not continued to make a major rise, instead it has been consolidating around 880~910. The most obvious evidence of consolidation is that the 20/60 ribbon is completely intertwined, the lines are flat, and the spacing is very narrow—this is like the market is 'holding its breath', waiting for a direction to choose. Currently, U.S. stocks have slightly increased before the market opens, showing hope of breaking through this resistance level. Pay attention to observe. Pay attention to observe $BNB
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015｜What is the 'liquidation price'? Why do you feel more anxious the closer the market gets to it?
Many people trading contracts have this line in their minds:
It's fine if you don't look
But staring at it is suffocating
That line is called the liquidation price.
You must be familiar with this typical scenario:
When the order is just opened:
"It's still far from liquidation, no big deal."
The market is slightly reversing:
"Why is it suddenly getting closer to liquidation?"
Walk a few more reverse K lines:
The time spent watching the market is rising sharply
Heart rate follows the market fluctuations
Not sure whether to 'add margin to protect' or 'cut losses and admit defeat'
In the end, it often evolves into one sentence:
"It's not that I don't know to stop loss, it's just that when it's about to blow up, I collapse first."
It's fine if you don't look
But staring at it is suffocating
That line is called the liquidation price.
You must be familiar with this typical scenario:
When the order is just opened:
"It's still far from liquidation, no big deal."
The market is slightly reversing:
"Why is it suddenly getting closer to liquidation?"
Walk a few more reverse K lines:
The time spent watching the market is rising sharply
Heart rate follows the market fluctuations
Not sure whether to 'add margin to protect' or 'cut losses and admit defeat'
In the end, it often evolves into one sentence:
"It's not that I don't know to stop loss, it's just that when it's about to blow up, I collapse first."
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I整理了一下我在等价格突破 4小时周期震荡区间的币种：ETH、BNB、SOL、SUI
$BNB
$ETH
$SUI
$BNB
$ETH
$SUI
See original
This week, ZRO, ARB, STRK, SEI, etc. will experience a large one-time token unlock. Long positions should be cautious of profit pullbacks, while short positions should wait for entry opportunities.
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