Pelin Ay

Ethereum is the Most Transferred Coin from Miners to Binance

Last year, #Ethereum was by far the leader in transfers from miners to exchanges. Throughout the chart, transfers reached levels of over 100M USD. It appears that miners are providing liquidity through $ETH . Miners seem to have played a significant role in Ethereum's lack of a bull run and the premature end of the altcoin rally.

$USDT and then USDC follow Ethereum in miner transfers. Miners have made regular and significant transfers, and it seems they prefer to remain in cash after sales. This leads to reduced market volatility.

WBTC follows USDT and USDC exchange transfers. Although small in number, it is strategically important because miners solve BTC not directly, but in tokenized form. This results in limited upward movements for the BTC price.

The altcoin most transferred from miners to exchanges is $LINK It stands out significantly compared to other altcoins. Looking at the price movement, it's clear this transfer is for liquidation purposes.

Miners are minimizing their risks while increasing their cash position.
It's clear they are not in long-term holding mode. A strong bull trend is not expected at times like these. Rises are short-lived and encounter selling pressure. This type of structure is frequently seen during bear seasons.

Ethereum, unlike Bitcoin, is in a more positive position. Although the downtrend hasn't been broken yet, there is a recovery. A rise to $3324 is normal. This rise doesn't necessarily mean it's bullish. A close above this level is necessary to break the downtrend. $ETH

Bitcoin closed negatively again on Monday. I think the decline will continue before the formation is complete. From this chart, it seems that if this close isn't a trap, we won't see the $100K level for quite some time.

Going above $90K now seems difficult. First $81,500, then $72,000. If that's the bottom, great. If not, we'll see a bearish bottom of $50K, then the bull market will continue.

Since the breakout, I've been warning you that my #Bitcoin peak target hasn't been reached and that it entered the bear market early. I hope you haven't suffered significant losses. Those who say there was no bull market unfortunately ended up with #altcoins that didn't experience a bull market. I also bought coins that didn't experience a bull market, but some were different, like $Sei, $Ton, etc. Bitcoin experienced a bull market. Now, instead of examining altcoins as a whole, it's important to track them separately.

I bought $BTC for $20K during the 2021 bull market. I sold it around $98K. I will now start buying #Bitcoin gradually, from $50K and below.

Bitcoin Panic Selling Hasn't Started Yet

The chart shows an upward trend in total inflow volume, but this increase alone doesn't generate an aggressive sell signal. In other words, BTC is coming into the market, but there isn't immediate pressure to sell. This suggests the effect on price will be controlled and spread over time.

The most concentrated bands on the chart are generally 0.1 – 1 BTC and 1 – 10 BTC. This group usually consists of individual investors taking profits and investors transferring for short-term trading. These investors only create micro-selling pressure in the spot market. However, as long as liquidity remains strong, they don't produce a sharp dump. Although the price struggles to move upwards, it generally finds a bottom below ($89K). This structure on the chart pushes the price towards a downward, rather than upward, consolidation.

The number of investors accumulating in the 10 – 100 BTC band is not yet dangerous. Investors in this range are in the transition zone between smart money and retail. The chart shows that this band produces frequent and irregular spikes. The lack of continuity prevents sustained selling pressure that would disrupt the trend. Therefore, the price experiences a fluctuating pullback instead of a sharp breakout.

Investors holding 100, 1K, and 1K+ BTC are holding intermittently and without consistency. This indicates that whales are not yet in aggressive selling mode. It's unrealistic to expect a large, one-time sell-off of Bitcoin after the ETF approval, as institutional investors are now aiming to increase their Bitcoin reserves. Therefore, declines are gradual, or one investor sees a buying opportunity while another sells. This prevents the price from exhibiting a collapse even within a bear trend.

Unless continuity increases in 1K+ BTC inflows, the horizontal downward price movement will continue until the bear season reaches its bottom price. $BTC

Bitcoin dominance has entered an upward trend. It wouldn't be realistic to expect major increases for altcoins. There will certainly be divergent coins, but given the sheer number of projects in the market and the fact that money withdrawn from Bitcoin isn't flowing into altcoins as it used to, I don't expect a major altcoin bull run until the fourth quarter of 2026. $BTC

DXY continues its decline. This drop could bring a false dawn to crypto. If it doesn't rise from the 97.15 level and continues to fall, the $102K-$110K range I'm expecting for #bitcoin could be reached. $BTC

Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bear Season Has Begun

First, looking at the Bitcoin chart, the price is clearly below the short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The price is sloping downwards from the SMA(7–14–30) and is positioned below the SMA(50–100), clearly indicating a downward trend.

Reactions are being sold off at the falling averages, meaning the averages have now become dynamic resistance. Resistance attempts are coming with low volume. Buyers are not gaining dominance.

Volume in sell candles is deeper than in buy candles. Buying volume is not accompanying recoveries.

In short, BTC is currently in the reaction phase of a bear market. The structure is still downward, and upward movements do not inspire confidence.

Ethereum is also below the averages but is doing better than BTC. The SMA(7–14) is attempting an upward curve, showing a desire for a short-term recovery. However, the SMA(50–100) is still above, meaning the main trend has not changed.

The rebound from the bottom is stronger and more stable than BTC's. Candlestick patterns are cleaner, wicks are shorter, and there's no panic selling.

The increase in volume after the bottom is healthier than in BTC. Buying is still limited but not completely gone.

Ethereum is holding stronger than Bitcoin, but this strength is not yet at the level of a trend reversal.

Considering both charts together, I can say that ETH is holding stronger than BTC. However, the market hasn't yet entered "risk-on" mode.

In both charts, long-term averages are sloping downwards, rebounds are below resistance, and volume is insufficient for an uptrend. The market is not ready for a strong rise. BTC cannot lead, the market cannot go up. ETH is resilient but cannot start a trend alone.

The Bitcoin rally has ended for now. We will first see the bottom of the bear season ($50K), then we will continue the rise. $BTC $ETH

According to ETH Funding Rates, Futures Demand Isn't Meeting the Need to Start a Rally

Recent positive funding rates are lower than in the previous period. There isn't heavy long pressure; that is, the market isn't aggressively engaging in leveraged buying. Negative areas are very limited; it's also clear that short positions aren't dominant. Therefore, I can't say there's excessive optimism in the market, but the long side is still dominant, albeit weakly.

When funding remains positive but low, we can say that leveraged long positions aren't strong and only small investors are trading. This indicates a lack of power to push the price up or down. The price enters a consolidation period at this time. The last part of the chart shows ETH fluctuating around $3.1K; this seems consistent with the funding structure.

Based on this chart, it's not difficult to predict that the ETH price will continue to stabilize in the $3.3K–$3.7K range. Because long transactions are weak but dominant. There is no selling pressure. The price hasn't found a peak yet. Therefore, I think the maximum rise could be around $3700.

The fact that funding rates remain at these levels indicates insufficient demand for futures contracts to support a major rally. $ETH #Ethereum

For Ethereum, I think the peak will be between $3,350 and $3,700. Then, the decline will continue. I predict a bearish bottom around $900. #Ethereum $ETH

Bitcoin's expected scenario continues. I expect it to first reach $102,000 and then continue to decline. The miner cost is between $51,000 and $57,000. During the 2021 bull run, the miner cost was $29,000, and the price fell to $14. That is, it fell below $15,000. If a similar decline occurs again, the $36,000-$42,000 range will be the bottom of the bear season. #bitcoin $BTC

Last week, $DYX, which had been short-correlated with #Bitcoin, returned to its normal course and began falling as #bitcoin rose. It's clear this decline will fall to 98.16. However, I believe it will then reverse upwards. This is because $BTC will likely find a peak and then fall. I expect this peak to reach $102K this week, but it appears to be relatively low volume. I'm keeping a close eye on the short.

Ethereum Binance Reserves Rising

The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand.

While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend.

The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400.

SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K.

This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH

Save beautiful Setup $ACT

If #Spell rebounds from the $0.000255 double bottom, we could have a good long opportunity in the futures. $SPELL

I caught a symmetrical triangle. The price is stuck, so let's follow it, it gives a trading opportunity. $IDOL

Seller Pressure in Bitcoin Hinders the Bulls

The chart shows increasing selling pressure, particularly since mid-2025. This suggests that aggressive selling is more dominant than aggressive buying in terms of volume. It is particularly noteworthy that the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio (Binance) frequently drops below 1, while the 30-day SMA also falls below 1. This indicates a more downward trend-like selling pressure, independent of short-term volatile movements. The 0.97 dip in the 30-day MA indicates strong volatile selling pressure in the market.

After mid-2025, the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio decreased, while the BTC price began to slope upwards and downwards from the same center, revealing a parallelism between the price and the TBSR. This suggests that the price is reflecting seller dominance.

The chart timeframe shows the TBSR rising from 1.10–1.15. However, these declines remained short-term reactionary increases and short entry zones. Buyers aren't strong enough to turn the market upwards.

The TBSR has been below 1 for approximately the last two years, and the price has entered a long-term decline. During the same period, the BTC price fell from $120,000 to $81,000. This confirms the main downward trend of the strong BTC price.

Last week, sellers decreased, buyers began appearing more frequently, and the 30-day SMA remains low. I interpret this move as a continuation of the price's downward movement, and I believe sellers could pull back to $100,000. Don't be fooled by the nature of this downward pressure; it's highly likely that it will remain a mere movement. If the 30-day SMA breaks above 1, the potential for a price reaction to the $100,000 range increases.

Taker selling intensity is high.
Aggressive selling continues in the spot and futures markets. However, any upward price reaction will easily lead to pressure. Therefore, the main downward trend ($70,000) will remain downward. $BTC

XRP Short Positions Trigger Selling Pressure

The recent predominance of negative funding is striking on the chart. Negative funding means more short positions are opening bearish positions across the market. In other words, sentiment in the futures market is weak and there is selling pressure. Negativity has deepened, but the potential for a mass, panic-filled short squeeze hasn't yet begun. The price has been in a clear downtrend in recent weeks. The simultaneous price drop while funding is negative confirms the price drop and the futures position.

As everyone in the futures market takes short positions, the trend becomes more likely to continue. This is because, as long as short pressure persists, appetite for long positions remains low.
In this case, the likelihood of the price retesting the $2.0-$1.9 range increases. This doesn't necessarily mean a decline; it's simply a scenario where the current chart structure favors it. However, if negative funding deepens in the coming days, then short positions should be stopped and liquidity cleared as the price moves from sideways to the $2.25–$2.35 range.

In summary, the price is in a downtrend, and shorting is intense but not excessive. We can say that the short-term direction is under downward pressure. A drop below -0.01 could push the price down to $1.9. $XRP

I anticipate a rally to $3,300 with a double bottom for Ethereum. This level is also a seasonal peak according to financial astrology. I expect this level to be tested first, followed by a continued decline. $2,500 is a key support area. If it breaks, we'll begin to see the true version of the trailer we've been watching for altcoins (delists, bankruptcies, etc.). $ETH

Bitcoin closed the week above $81,500. If it completes the OBO pattern, I expect a downward reversal to the $102,600 and maximum $110,000 range. We'll see a short-term rally. Don't let this fool you.

#Bitcoin fell approximately $40,000 from $123,000 last month. Despite this, there are still those who refuse to accept that we've entered bear season. Please don't place stop-loss trades. Our main direction is down.

For those who say we haven't experienced a bull run, so we shouldn't enter a bear season, I've always stated that not every altcoin experiences a bull run. $BTC , $SOL , and others experienced their bull runs. We should base our bull market on Bitcoin for the season. I believe the bull run will be around $50,000.

If an upward move occurs to complete the OBO pattern, which I expect it to, it will be a breakout opportunity, not a buy.

Bitcoin correlated with $DXY has entered a decline with a double top. As soon as the level of 98.90 is broken, we may see sharper declines at #bitcoin and #Altcoin .