crypto朴大叔

Strategy CEO Phong Le stated in an interview with Fox Business that Strategy has enough Bitcoin reserves to last until the year 2100 and is building an 'unbreakable' balance sheet aimed at providing a solid foundation for the next 65-100 years.

At the same time, Strategy's long-term performance will outperform Bitcoin itself, as the company amplifies Bitcoin returns through leverage and capital structure.

Brothers, when are you ready to hold your BTC? Have you left a little Bitcoin for your children?

Saw a new message: The US SEC has released a self-custody guide for cryptocurrency #BITCOIN, indicating that American citizens are set to start widespread trading. This marks a pivotal turning point: regulators are shifting from the debate of 'whether it can exist' to the practice of 'how to exist safely.'

This is not merely investor education; it is a clear signal of institutional recognition. When the strictest regulators begin to guide the public on 'how to manage private keys themselves,' it effectively acknowledges that:

Self-custody is a fundamental attribute of crypto assets that cannot and should not be avoided.

The focus of regulation is shifting from crude boundary delineation to the construction of a risk management framework.

This is a positive and profound trend for all builders. It signifies that the level of industry dialogue is elevating—from the confrontation of 'whether compliant' to the collaborative phase of 'how to build trustworthy and compliant underlying infrastructure.'

The whole internet is saying that #Binance Alpha is going to close soon to make way for Aster. These two shouldn't conflict, right? It's also said that several projects scheduled to launch on Alpha have been refunded, etc. I don't agree with this statement, but I certainly don't deny that the way Alpha operates may change in the future. After all, when the market is bearish, there won't be so many projects wanting to launch, but the points system should still be in place; it won't just be shut down all of a sudden.

After all, this year Alpha attracted a huge amount of traffic, and everyone should be well aware of this. This model is essentially a complete overhaul of the previous way of doing things, making it a win-win for Binance, users, and project parties!

Everyone should pay more attention to official announcements, like from @Rick_Binance bro, who is part of the Alpha team. If you have any Alpha-related questions, you can reach out to him~

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but Bitcoin fell instead of rising. Why?
Because the market is always: buy the expectation, sell the fact.

The federal funds rate range dropped from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.5%-3.75% (this is the third time this year in just three months).
According to traditional narratives: rate cuts = risk assets take off.
In reality: the Nasdaq only rose about 0.33%; BTC plummeted from 94,000 to 90,000.

Why did the 'positive news' lead to a drop?
Because the market had already priced it in: this wave is not a dramatic reversal; it is the result of consistent expectations. Institutions love to play buy the expectation, sell the fact.

There are three scenarios for rate cuts:
1. Preemptive (administering medicine before a cold fully develops)
2. Rescue (quickly administering fluids after already falling ill)
3. Panic (sudden electric shocks for emergency rescue in the ICU)

A classic case of panic: the 2020 pandemic.
A sudden rate cut, and the market interpreted it as 'something big has happened,' leading to a sell-off to escape, followed by the subsequent QE liquidity surge rebound.

Which type does this round resemble? I lean more towards a preemptive rate cut. It's not an urgent rescue; it's a proactive reduction to prevent recession. This is relatively friendly for the crypto circle, but don’t rush to pop the champagne.
Because the data is changing: employment is cooling (11-digit private sector job losses in November, below expectations).
Once the recession narrative solidifies, a preemptive cut may turn into a rescue situation, and market sentiment will also shift accordingly.

The overall rate cut cycle is generally favorable, but that doesn’t mean it will rise immediately.
After the rate cuts began in September 2024, BTC actually surged and then fell back until subsequent continuous cuts ignited the sentiment.

Currently, BTC is fluctuating around 90,000, which is completely different from the 'hell bottom' of a few thousand dollars in 2020.
You must accept one reality: we are not in the script of 'picking up corpses at the end of a bear market.'

The current situation resembles a 'three lows phase': low expectations, low leverage, low volatility.
ETF inflows are no longer frenzied; the growth rate of stablecoins has slowed; leverage has been largely cleaned out. The market has no burdens, but also lacks acceleration.

So the key question becomes: is there new incremental capital coming in?
In the short term, rate cuts are more of a psychological boost; to see liquidity overflow, we must wait for time. If rate cuts and balance sheet expansion continue in the medium term, it is more likely to lead to a rational slow bull market dominated by institutions.

Full video: youtu.be/KblG6JCAEMQ?si…

Latest news on cryptocurrency

💸 #BTC：$90246.8 -2.28%
🪙 #ETH : $3087.42 -4.91%
🆚 Overall long-short ratio：49.74% ↗️ ：50.26% 📉

✔️ Trump: leaning towards Walsh or Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve, interest rates should not exceed 1% in a year
✔️ Spot silver continues to soar to new highs, New York silver futures break $65/ounce
✔️ Two FOMC voters explain why they oppose rate cuts: inflation risks are too high, should be more cautious

Message update!

20251213

202405 MSTR was included in the MSCI index, at that time the BTC price was about 60k-65k, and MSTR BTC NAV was about 13.5 billion USD. At that time, the market anticipated a rate cut, followed by the Fed's first rate cut of 50 basis points in four years on 20240919, subsequently accompanied by a phased arc bottom pattern, BTC first broke 100k in 202412, and at the same time MSTR also surged to over 330.

In 202412, MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100, at that time the market: after BTC first broke 100k, it entered a high-level adjustment speculation area, then it fell to a low of 74k before bottoming out with 202504 and subsequently attacking to break through 120k by 202507.

👀｜On 20260115, it will be announced whether MSTR will be removed from MSCI. If removed, consider the overall liquidity tightness + BTC drop from 202512 to 202601 + emotional assessment of short-term impact. The so-called depth spiral of MSTR does not exist in the short term (mNAV (EV/NAV) and cash reserves can cover the number of months for interest dividends do not support short-term selling of coins), it is more of an emotional shock.

🧠 ｜ Reflexivity:
EV/NAV > 1 → Easier financing (ATM/Issuing preferred shares/CB) → Buy more BTC → In a strong market, more willing to give MSTR a premium (like BTC call options, assets wrapped in strong market equity are more elastic than the underlying assets themselves)

🚨 Today's News Flash (December 13, 2025) 🚨

1/ 🔥 BTC Volatile Returns to 92K Zone!

AI bubble concerns + dragging down US tech stocks caused BTC to briefly fall below 90K yesterday, but it rebounded quickly. Currently around $92,000, volatility has dropped to a low point. Following the Fed's rate cut, market expectations for easing in 2026 are highly divergent, and the short-term market will still be dominated by macroeconomics. Continued volatility is expected before the end of the year, so stay calm! 📉📈

2/ 💥 Major Regulatory Boost!

Five crypto giants, including Ripple, Circle, and BitGo, have received preliminary approval from the OCC to become national trust banks! This move directly accelerates the integration of crypto and traditional finance; is USDC/RLUSD about to take off? Significant progress in institutional compliance, a super long-term positive! 🏦🚀

3/ 🏦 Coinbase Makes a Big Move!

According to leaks, a prediction market + tokenized US stocks will be launched next week in collaboration with Kalshi! The ambition of an all-encompassing exchange is revealed; find out in the live stream on the 17th. DeFi + TradeFi integration is accelerating; is Coinbase poised to become a one-stop giant? 🔥

4/ 🌿 ETH Gas Fees Plunge!

Following the Fusaka upgrade, gas fees have fallen to their lowest point since 2017! The Layer 2 era is truly amazing, with transaction costs at rock-bottom prices. A sign of Ethereum ecosystem recovery? In the low-fee era, DeFi is about to take off! ⛽️↓

5/ 😱 Other Hot Topics:

- The Fear & Greed Index remains at "Extreme Fear," with some major banks lowering their 2025 BTC target to $100,000.

- Overall market volatility is high, with altcoins showing significant stagnation. Liquidity is thin over the weekend; be aware of the risks! DYOR is not investment advice.

Little Prince's Reminder: During market volatility, observe more and trade less. In the long run, with continuous regulatory and infrastructure benefits, the bull market is not over! 💎🙌
#Bitcoin#Cryptocurrency#BTC#ETH

Every time before the weekend, I worry that something unexpected will happen. Today should be the drop caused by Oracle bones, which has affected the entire AI sector, and the AI sector is influencing tech stocks. Therefore, the trend of Bitcoin is also normal. Speaking of which, in the past few days, $BTC has been hovering around 90,000 USD. Just recently, it surged due to favorable interest rate cuts, but was pulled down again for various reasons within a couple of days, mainly due to poor liquidity and low investor sentiment.

From the data on spot ETFs, it can be seen that although the selling volume is not high, the buying volume is pitifully low. This indicates that more ETF investors have a long-term perspective, but there is a lack of interest in buying at this stage, even retail investors are starting to exit from the US stock market. Therefore, if liquidity does not improve or if there is no direct positive stimulus for the cryptocurrency sector, it will still be quite difficult for sentiment to improve.

Today is the last working day of the week. I wonder if this low sentiment will carry into the weekend. Next week, there will be more macro data coming out, especially the unemployment rate data, which is currently a key focus. If the unemployment rate continues to rise and the job market continues to weaken, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is still quite high.

Looking back at the data on Bitcoin, although the turnover rate has decreased somewhat, it is still at a relatively high level. Short-term investors' sentiment is still quite tense, but long-term investors' sentiment remains very stable. The current market is starting to wait for data, using data to speculate on the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy. Overall, it is about which appears first: recession or monetary easing.

URPD data shows that the chip structure remains very stable, with the sentiment of most investors being very healthy. There are no signs of panic selling from investors with high losses. Tomorrow is the weekend, and I hope nothing goes wrong. It would be great to get through it smoothly.

$BTC is expected to welcome a significant breakthrough in early 2026

Many factors point to this:
- The Federal Reserve will significantly lower interest rates
- Quantitative easing policy will start in early 2026
- Whales are gathering in large numbers for $BTC
- RSI indicator shows $BTC is oversold

The market is about to experience explosive growth—are you ready?

GM December 11, 2025

1. Market Trends

BTC continues to decline, and altcoins are following with a full pullback.

The US stock market is rising, the US dollar is weak, but market sentiment has not been stimulated. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market's expectation for rate cuts in the following two years has clearly cooled, only allowing for 'once in 2026, once in 2027,' basically telling everyone: policy easing may be reaching its end.

Long-term bond yields have soared to a new high in 16 years, and under these circumstances, liquidity is unlikely to truly ease, making it difficult for risk assets to break out of a real one-sided trend.

2. Market Hotspots

1) The OK new coin continues to stand out, with WET and NIGHT doubling in one day. WET is a DEX operated by the Sol chain, and NIGHT is a privacy chain created by the founder of ADA. Although there is heavy selling pressure, the rhythm of rallying remains strong.

2) The public chain SEI is rising, mainly due to its collaboration with Xiaomi, with pre-installed apps on phones generating anticipation.

3) ETH is also strengthening, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate rising, and mainstream funds are concentrating back on major public chains.

Powell did not surprise the market

As expected

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points

The rate is now at 3.75%

After his moderate hawkish speech, the market began to pull back

$BTC $ETH

Everyone should keep their social media passwords secure. He Yi's WeChat was hacked, and scammers posted a meme coin, causing many people to suffer losses.
One person took out BNB to provide partial compensation, a big picture!

The whole world is waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision

Speculative funds and institutions are holding a large amount of cash

Waiting to rush in, announcing a 25 basis point market fluctuation adjustment

Announcing a 50 basis point rate cut, the market starts at least 10%

Maintain fluctuations during the midday, waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision. The technical aspect is bullish, with key support at 91500-92000, which can be bought in batches at low prices, with a stop loss below 91000. If there is a dovish breakout above 93500, chase the long position with a target of 95000+; if there is a hawkish drop below 90500, only then consider a small position for shorting. Institutional funds continue to flow in, and the medium term outlook remains bullish.
#BTC #web3

$BTC is hovering around $92,600, and market momentum has entered a deeper correction zone. CryptoQuant's composite index has fallen to 0.72, the lowest level since April 2025, indicating that the market is in a "pessimistic/correction" zone. If this indicator further falls below 0.75, short-term holders may accelerate profit-taking, and the price may test the support level of $87,500.

The macro environment has intensified the pressure. The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has weakened, and insufficient liquidity combined with a decline in risk appetite has driven the sell-off. Meanwhile, whale accounts' short positions have exceeded long positions, and ETF funds have seen a net outflow for several weeks, further undermining market confidence. Demand for downside protection in the options market has risen, reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards the year-end market.

Technically, if the composite index breaks above 1.0 again, market momentum will turn positive, with potential target ranges between $150,000 and $175,000, in line with the trends of 2017 and 2021. Currently, $93,000 is seen as a key support level, and if it falls below this, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. Nevertheless, institutional buyers like MicroStrategy are still actively positioning, reinforcing the market logic that "deep corrections often give rise to new highs."

Conclusion/Insight: Bitcoin still faces insufficient liquidity and macro uncertainty in the short term, but the $87,500 support range may become a key observation point. If the market stabilizes here and liquidity improves, the possibility of a year-end rebound still exists. Investors need to pay attention to Federal Reserve policies and ETF fund flows, as this will determine whether $BTC can break free from its current weakness.

#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket #DigitalAssets #FinancialMarket @EdgenTech

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Today's most important news:
The Federal Reserve officially ends QT, BTC breaks 89000

What is QT?
QT (Quantitative Tightening) is a series of policies by the Federal Reserve to withdraw money, reducing the amount of money in the market and making assets easier to depreciate.

What does the end of QT mean?
The Federal Reserve will no longer withdraw funds, reducing the pressure on capital in the market, which will stimulate the stock and cryptocurrency markets to rise.

Does the end of QT mean the beginning of QE?
QE (Quantitative Easing) is the opposite of QT, where the Federal Reserve implements a series of policies to inject money, increasing the amount of money in the market and making assets easier to appreciate. Usually, after the end of QT, QE will begin after some time, but it depends on the situation and it may not start immediately.

When will QE start?
This depends on the economic conditions (inflation, employment), and we need to pay attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10.