NFP slightly above forecast, average value. Unemployment rose to 4.6% which confirms problems in the labor market. The probabilities of a rate cut increased slightly.
Indexes fell a bit, bitcoin even rose. As mentioned, there won't be any special effect just from this stat. #Macro #NFP
In 15 minutes, the NFP data will be released, in addition to the macro statistics on the labor market this week. As I mentioned earlier, other important events include inflation data on Thursday, and on Friday, "triple witching" occurs, which involves the expiration of stock futures, stock options, and index options. All these events are important, so there is uncertainty and volatility ahead this week. Short-term rebounds or declines may start and end. #Macro #NFP
Bitcoin has entered the 85K zone, as I mentioned on Friday, there will be weakness. I will try to set a limit at 83600 when the low is removed, after which they will likely go. Cancellation will be below 77.5. And an alternative entry setup may occur when returning above 90.3K, which will be a bullish engulfing of the last dump, but for now, the first option seems more likely to me. Tomorrow is macro data and all the fortune tellers on the chart take a back seat. What do you think the next price of Bitcoin will be?
Bitcoin is trading around 90K, and the fact that the tool hasn't been bought back increases the likelihood of going even lower, in the zone of 87.5-87K there is a batch of orders, but it could also go lower into the zone of 84K, this could be on Sunday/Monday. Closer to the middle of the week, I expect that they will restore demand and bring the quotation back to around 95K.
There is a rumor on the internet about the pairing of ETH/BTC to a bull market and the rise of Bitcoin. Also, the duration of these cycles of growth for the currency pair. What do you think, is the bull market over?
❗️Macro statistics on the labor market on Tuesday will likely be neutral to bad, so as not to strongly upset investors. And Thursday, Friday - inflation.
❕At the end of the week, there will be an expiration of quarterly options, and the market will lose a ton of derivatives, which can change the local trend at such moments.
🇯🇵On December 19, a decision on the Bank of Japan's interest rate will be made, with a consensus of 0.75% for the first time since 2007, which will lead to the closure of Carry trade. The amount of money involved in this, by various estimates, reaches tens if not hundreds of billions, and now the situation is changing and the market has already started reacting with a decline in risky assets.
⚡️In general, as you understand, the week will be interesting. It's hard to say how crypto will react, and in such conditions, making any forecasts is simply pointless. I have given the key zones for the main assets, and I will focus on them. #Macro
🔷Ether is trading above 3000, the zones that may be tested on weakness are 2900 and 2700. Moreover, technically on the H&S chart, with a potential of about -10%. The cancellation of the scenario is a move above 3300, which would mean local buyer strength and a continuation of the upward bounce. Ether currently looks a bit stronger than Bitcoin, but it should be understood that it will fully replicate its dynamics and will also go down during a correction. What do you think the next price of Ether will be? 👍3500 👎2500
The breakout of the zone at $3250 looks good; if we don't fall away from this zone, there are chances for further movement. One thing is worrying - the financial results tomorrow.
Bitcoin is trading around 90K, and the fact that the tool hasn't been bought back increases the likelihood of going even lower, in the zone of 87.5-87K there is a batch of orders, but it could also go lower into the zone of 84K, this could be on Sunday/Monday. Closer to the middle of the week, I expect that they will restore demand and bring the quotation back to around 95K.
One of the few stories that is currently pulling against the market.
As mentioned earlier, it has predictably gone higher. It does not seem like a completed move. Therefore, I think that working from purchases still makes sense.
The Fed lowered the rate by 25 bps, as expected. I noted in advance that no strong movement should be anticipated after the meeting: this was priced in by the market. The main impulse occurred the day before, when Bitcoin rose to 95,000 and entered a large order zone. After that, the crypto market corrected along with stock indices. Crypto is most correlated with the small-cap index Russell 2000. Currently, Russell looks better than S&P 500 and Nasdaq, so the post-FOMC effect may still persist.
Powell stated that the cycle of rate cuts will continue if necessary, and the Fed is launching QE, increasing liquidity in the system. This is positive for crypto. In my opinion, a rise in crypto assets is possible in the next 1–2 weeks. #BTC #Macro $BTC
Today is the decision on the Fed rate, the market prices it with an 87% probability that it will be lowered, this is already priced in. But Powell's comments on the regulator's further plans will be important.
Important zones on the chart, I think they may test both the upper and lower zones.
Usually, before and right after, markets rise, but after a few days there may be weakness and correction.
What do you think will be the next price of Bitcoin?
Came clearly to the futures level. The volumes are mediocre, and unlike Ethereum, there hasn't been a breakout yet. Need to watch 95K behind this zone. There isn't really any support, but they gave a good impulse.
✅Last week I missed the post about the DCA portfolio, and this week I am consolidating transactions for 2 weeks; in principle, prices have not changed and are at the same level.
🪙Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in the range of 85-95K.
🔷Ethereum is trading around 3000.
🔍 The support for BTC prices is the April low zone of 75-85K.
And for ETH - 2500-2600.
⛓️ The demand from ETF funds has not recovered and is at zero due to reduced liquidity, which is partly related to the increase in the key interest rate of the Bank of Japan, which in turn led to the closure of carry trades.
🌐But there are many positive moments in the market that are not yet reflected in the price.
💡The restructuring of the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December gives hope for a recovery in risk-on in the market. This will also be supported by the end of the QT cycle and the beginning of the reduction of the TGA balance.
In the current situation, the market needs a trigger to restore demand.
📊 Onchain metrics are still in bullish territory. 💰 I am buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum for 140$ over 2 weeks as part of the DCA portfolio. #BTC @Ethereum
The breakout of the zone at $3250 looks good; if we don't fall away from this zone, there are chances for further movement. One thing is worrying - the financial results tomorrow.
✅Last week I missed the post about the DCA portfolio, and this week I am consolidating transactions for 2 weeks; in principle, prices have not changed and are at the same level.
🪙Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in the range of 85-95K.
🔷Ethereum is trading around 3000.
🔍 The support for BTC prices is the April low zone of 75-85K.
And for ETH - 2500-2600.
⛓️ The demand from ETF funds has not recovered and is at zero due to reduced liquidity, which is partly related to the increase in the key interest rate of the Bank of Japan, which in turn led to the closure of carry trades.
🌐But there are many positive moments in the market that are not yet reflected in the price.
💡The restructuring of the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December gives hope for a recovery in risk-on in the market. This will also be supported by the end of the QT cycle and the beginning of the reduction of the TGA balance.
In the current situation, the market needs a trigger to restore demand.
📊 Onchain metrics are still in bullish territory. 💰 I am buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum for 140$ over 2 weeks as part of the DCA portfolio. #BTC @Ethereum