Prof Moon

#December Market Outlook

🎄 A Christmas message to those who truly understand Bitcoin

As the year-end approaches, the world seems to slow down—families reunite, the streets are brightly lit, and people pause for a moment to reflect on what truly matters.

However, behind the celebrations, some things are quietly happening.

Prices are higher than last Christmas.

Savings no longer last as long as they used to.

It is against this backdrop that Bitcoin has emerged.

Bitcoin is not just a chart.

It's not just a transaction.

It's more than just a news headline.

It is a response to a world where trust has been abused.

Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Solana are all declining, Bitcoin failed to rise again and dropped near $90,000 on Thursday. The cryptocurrency market as a whole continued its correction, with Bitcoin falling to around $90,000, giving up most of the gains it made on Tuesday. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled and restarted its government bond purchasing plan, market risk appetite did not persist, as major cryptocurrencies experienced overall pressure. The latest price of Bitcoin is around $90,250, down 2.4% over 24 hours. Ethereum fell by 3.4% to $3,208, Solana dropped by 5.8%, and Dogecoin decreased by 5.5%. Data shows that most major tokens over the past seven days have turned negative in returns, with XRP down 8.6%, Cardano down 7.2%, and BNB down 5.9%. On Tuesday, Bitcoin reached $94,500 and there was pressure on short positions, but it could not break above the vital resistance area that had formed over the past three weeks, then quickly retreated. The current price has returned to hover within last month's volatility range, with weakness in market depth, and concentrated correction areas still affecting short-term fluctuations. The derivatives market has become the main driving force for this decline. CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, positions worth $514 million were liquidated, including long position liquidations amounting to $376 million, which is two-thirds of the short positions. After Bitcoin broke the short-term trend line, this led to cascading liquidations and increased volatility. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted that Bitcoin has already formed peaks and higher lows since late November, but to confirm a real bullish trend in terms of market capitalization, the total market must exceed $3.32 trillion. Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is about $3.16 trillion, still below the peak it reached on Tuesday at $3.21 trillion. The macro side has not provided continuous support. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again, policymakers expect a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts, highlighting divisions in policy. QCP Capital had previously warned that low liquidity and imbalanced positions could lead to Bitcoin volatility until the end of the year, expecting it to range between $84,000 and $100,000. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone even warned that the so-called "millennial market" could fail, and Bitcoin might drop below $84,000 again by the end of the year. In the short term, the market is focusing on Bitcoin's ability to maintain the $90,000 to $91,000 level. If it breaks, the bottom of this range will face a test; if it stabilizes, it could provide a foundation for a re-test of the main resistance at $94,000. (CoinDesk)