九烨加密论

On December 3rd, the price of BTC rose from 84K to 94K, and now it has returned from 94K to 89K. If nothing unexpected happens, the price will likely test 84K again, but I believe the probability of breaking the previous low is only 30%.

The market still needs another acceleration downward and a pin bar. Even if luck is on our side and a new low is broken, the price won't be too far from the previous low. Therefore, this round is still defined as a bounce in a downtrend, and the second wave has not ended yet.

When the price of this coin $pippin rises to 0.33, I think it has reached its peak, at least completing the super flat three-wave structure. Who would have thought that the price is now stabilizing above 0.33 and has broken a new high? However, this still belongs to the flat three-wave; at most, it is a secondary standard five-wave within the flat three-wave, and it won't go far.

That said, this K-line master is quite accurate with the nodes. After spending a long time in the trading market, one becomes accustomed to strange occurrences. I believe we are almost at the end of this short position.

Let's talk about ZEC

Since the stop-loss has been hit, and the price is above all moving averages, with positive signals for upward movement at the bottom, shorting is no longer an option. The market has broken through the long-short boundary, and the probability of an upward trend is now greater than that of a downward trend, unless it closes below 440 again.

$ZEC 449 Knife breaking position confirmation?!
This time we are at 449 stop loss, how about 104 take profit?

$ETH is still stronger, Ether pulled from a low of 2700 to 3400, which also has a difference of about 700 points, nearly a 20% increase, and if there are no surprises, there is still room for growth, 3500 points should not be missed, next focus on the 3250 support.

Is everyone shorting $pippin right now?

The funding rate is normal, the open interest is at a historical high, the price is at the top zone, and there was a big bullish candlestick yesterday. The key point is that the price is very stable, and there are no signs of a sharp drop right now. The short positions are hanging up there, and we don't dare to enter long positions.

Can anyone tell me whether to hold the short position or join the longs next?

#solana #memecoin🚀🚀🚀

BEAT is good, it has dropped to 1.13U, and below that is the area of concentrated chips. Recently, a bottom zone will form between 1.1-1.2 to gather strength for a surge, and short positions cannot be held.

FHE touched the trend line 0.049 twice, pulled back to the 618 line 0.02850, this round of the market is considered ended and tracked, as for the future market continuing to rebound and then continuing to decline, feel free to play it out, the top of this round is at 0.049 dollars.

ZEC seems to have been forgotten!!

Since the last breakout from the range, it has been falling to 300U, which is the 618 line of this rally, just like ETH, where it stopped falling at a key level and began a rebound.

The first challenge ahead is the lower boundary of the 440U range, which can be understood as a confirmation of the rebound after the breakout. If it really goes above, it will be a different story. If a bearish candlestick pattern appears again at the lower boundary, it indicates that the breakout confirmation is valid.

Be patient, the results will be revealed soon.

BEAT reached the highest pin at 1.86 at the neckline, but the price was still driven down at dawn. It also took a long time to drop at 2U; the main force just naturally likes to grind the feeling.

Target 1.1-1.2.

$BEAT did not expect to have a second chance!!

The opportunity to short has come again, rebounding to the neckline at 1.70, breaking the rebound confirmation, expected to drop to 1.2 tomorrow.

BEAT has finally come down, but my short position got stopped out at 2U. I should try to short again, with a stop loss set at 2.1 USD, but I gave up on this trade.

Previously, I thought that after rising from 1.09 to touch 1.95 USD, there would be a long bearish candle or a long upper shadow, but it has not appeared. The hourly chart is fluctuating around 2 USD. On the daily chart, it closed as a long bullish candle. Do you think it is a distribution or brewing a larger market movement??

Both are possible; the only thing to do is control the position and set a limited stop loss, so that with a safety cushion, one can take a risk. If it drops, it indicates that the previous prediction was correct.

The reason FHE doesn't dare to take a heavy position is: the K-line on August 23 had an amplitude of 150%. Tell me, how many times can you go without being liquidated?? A 10x leverage can blow up your 10 trades, 5x can blow up your 5 trades, 2x seems not to work either, and 1x will also blow up. Unless you have enough margin in your account, the liquidation price is zero.

Try not to get liquidated as much as possible, and it's best to aim to never get liquidated. This means you need to think about unexpected events every time you make a trade. If the price increases by another 150% along the trend line, how can you avoid liquidation or keep your losses manageable? What if the stop-loss doesn't trigger; will you get liquidated??

There is no forever safe trade; only by controlling your position can you last long. Over the past few days, through these explosive surges and crashes of the altcoins, I've gained a lot of insights. Overall, a 2x leverage with a 10% position can yield substantial profits! And no longer act like a gambler.

$LUNC Two deities have already fallen, especially on the day LUNC peaked, when the contract positions reached the same levels as those two instances in Q1 2024, both of which saw significant declines after peaking.

If there is another opportunity to climb again, I believe there could be another chance to make a profit, with the stop loss set at the peak of this rebound at 0.000080.

$BEAT Beware of the short squeeze market!!

Yesterday I tried to add a short position at 1.78 with a stop loss of 2U, but in the middle of the night, the price surged to 2.09 with repeated spikes, indicating a real rise, and after oscillating repeatedly, it came back down.

Because it moved through three channels around 2U, I thought it would drop quickly, but it kept oscillating around the channel, and I'm not sure what it wants to do. Yesterday, on-chain data showed that the team's chips are concentrating, attempting a test sell.

The daily candlestick chart is also quite strange, with a massive bullish candlestick at the bottom, and the volume is there. We need to be cautious with the bullish candlestick that can collapse at any time. In the short term, I still see 1.5, but I won't short again. The funding rate is -0.6%, so be cautious of the short squeeze market.

We need to wait for a new opportunity.

$FHE The full homomorphic encryption track, as soon as you look at the posture, it’s clearly wrong.

In one day, a massive surge of 232% touched the trend line resistance level. From the very beginning, do not underestimate its violence; its market value is less than 10 million, and when it started, it was less than 5 million. Only a small amount of capital can cause it to explode.

It is just a coin that shoots once and leaves. If you really want to continue the surge, you should build a bottom at the base. So this time, receiving a short position at 0.048 can hold until the bottom before leaving; it will go down the same way it came up.

Still talking $BEAT

When the previous content was released, the 15-minute K-line quickly surged with increased volume, while the hourly chart showed characteristics of high-level fluctuations in K-lines. If you want to trade, set the stop loss at 2 dollars, and initially target 1.5 dollars if it drops. If it can go to 1.1 dollars, that would be even better; if it breaks through, then exit.

In fact, the ultimate destination of trading contracts is definitely zero, which is beyond doubt. Even if you see many people making a lot of money, you haven't seen their losses, which can also be terrible.
So, there was a time when I was very fearful of trading contracts.

I am not suited for high multiples, high frequency, and heavy positions trading models; otherwise, I would certainly suffer greatly. In fact, anything related to "high multiples, high frequency, heavy positions" is not for me because I cannot control it.

The trading rhythm that suits my personality is: low multiples, light positions, mainly aimed at coping with bear market conditions, trading just like spot trading. Each time I open a position this way, I have no psychological pressure at all; even if I incur losses, it will not be devastating. However, the account funds will not quickly reach a high point; more often, it is a slow accumulation. Finding your own sense of rhythm is crucial, much more important than making money.

I would like to discuss trading systems in detail, but these words cannot explain it clearly, and most people are not interested at all, which makes it quite dull to talk about. However, at least remember one thing: the only method to solve psychological issues, apart from having unlimited bullets, is to control your position.

Back to BEAT, it is quite tricky, so don’t gamble, only act when safety is confirmed.

$BEAT is different from $PIPPIN and needs to continue pulling!

The price predicted in the morning was between 1.90-2.0, and it can be shorted within this range. I just looked at the holding data and funding rate, and I expect the short squeeze market has not ended yet.
The funding rate has already reached a recent low of -0.3%, and the long-short ratio is 0.58, with short sellers still accounting for the majority. Technically, BEAT has reached an important resistance level, and not many coins can pull three channels at once; BEAT is an exception.

Right now, I am just wondering if the main force will drop with such a low rate, giving money to shorts, or if it is just consuming the funding rate of shorts around 2. On the daily chart, if tomorrow closes with a long bullish candle, it is obviously still a bullish trend.

If you want to short, you need to wait a little longer!

$BEAT Can't be stopped, is the demon coin going to take off again?

It seems that 1.51 is not the highest point, and it may rise to another channel next. Similar to the three channels that started after the opening and fluctuated, BEAT may quickly surge to the 1.9-2.1 area. Those looking to short can wait for it at the 2 position.

$BEAT 8 hours of contract holding data has reached a new high, accompanied by prices also reaching new highs. The current price is at the upper band of the channel, having completed two channel escalations. Technically, a pullback of one channel's amplitude is required first.

The funding rate has been negative since the 6th, now reaching a new low of -0.31%. The main focus is still on short positions, with the belief that prices should drop like they did during the last surge, although I am also bearish. However, the risk point lies here, as a short squeeze may occur in the future.

This means a sharp decline after a short squeeze, be careful of following the path of $pippin .