DOFA乔大安

In this round of the market, the most common phrase I've heard is:

'No rush, let's wait for the opportunity first.'

But if you break this sentence down,
many times its real meaning is:

👉 I don't know what to do, but I dare not move.

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The most brutal aspect of the market is: it does not reward 'waiting',
It only rewards 'those who can adjust'.

what most people call 'equal opportunity',
Essentially doing something very dangerous:
👉 Take destiny,
👉 Handing over to an uncertain timeline.

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You can recall that:
• The first time you said 'wait a bit longer',

I rarely ask one question now when trading:
“Will it go up next?”

I often ask another question:
“If it doesn’t go up, will I be taken away?”

⸻

Many people understand trading as direction judgment,
But in the real market, direction is the least important part.

The only thing that really determines whether you can stay is one thing:

👉 When the market doesn’t go as you expect,
Do you have any space to adjust?

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You will discover a harsh reality:
• Many people see the right direction
• Few people make money
• Fewer people survive several rounds

If you have experienced more than one round of market conditions,
You will definitely have a feeling:

Every time something happens in the market,
ETH is always the first to be hit.

Not because it is the weakest,
But because—
Its position is the most awkward.

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ETH plays a very special role in the market:

👉 It is not purely a hedge
👉 It is also not purely speculative
👉 But it is almost connected to all leverage and liquidity

This is the root of the problem.

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When systemic risk appears,
The first thing the market does is not to judge value,
But is—
Release pressure.

And release pressure,

I know this sentence is not pleasant to hear,
But I still have to say it first:

It's not that you are not patient enough,
It's your position that simply does not qualify to wait for a rebound.

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Many people are now stuck in a very painful position:
• Unwilling to cut losses
• Tired of holding on
• Always waiting for a phrase:
"The rebound is coming soon."

But the truly cruel part of the market is:
It never cares about what you are waiting for.

⸻

You think you are waiting for a rebound,
But what the market is doing is something else:
👉 Clear leverage
👉 Suppress volatility
👉 Eliminate the least elastic positions

Rebounds are never prepared for everyone.

⸻
Let me make it clear:
I don't call trades, nor do I teach you when to buy the dip.

not because I am more restrained,
but because I've seen too many people—
The direction was correct, but the people didn't survive.

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The truly cruel part of the market is never the ups and downs,
but it always happens when you think you can 'hold on a little longer',
directly clearing you out of the market.

The sharp declines, liquidations, and emotional collapses you've seen these days,
not by chance,
but rather a very familiar process:

👉 Uncertainty arises
👉 Risk appetite is suppressed
👉 Leverage has been cleared first

Many people are still struggling with a question:
"Is the U.S. government really shut down?"

But the market has already given the answer in the most direct way.

It's not news, it's price;
It's not a statement, it's a liquidation.

In the past 24 hours,
411,479 people were liquidated, $2.53 billion disappeared, the largest ETH contract directly $223 million.

This is not an emotional outburst,
This is a very clear market causal chain.

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First ring: The U.S. government is in a "partial shutdown" = uncertainty has manifested

I don't care if it's a full shutdown or not,
The market only cares about one thing:

Cryptocurrency, gold, and silver all crashing down, the bottom line is one reason: the U.S. government is slacking off again.

What is the essence of a government shutdown?
It's not that there is no money, it's that they don't want to take responsibility.
It's not an accident, it's systemic blame-shifting.

It's the same every time:
Fiscal play to the limit → Politicians start infighting → Government shutdown as a bargaining chip → The market pays the price for them.

So what happened?
🔻 Gold crash
🔻 Silver crash
🔻 Cryptocurrency crash
🔻 Risk assets are all taken down

When they say 'pause operations', real money evaporates for global investors.

The most ironic thing is—
Every day they talk about 'market-oriented' and 'free economy',

To be honest, there's not much to analyze in today's market.

It's not a technical failure,
It's also not a breakdown of logic,
But rather a trigger that is too familiar—
Political uncertainty has been repriced.

When the price goes down,
My first reaction was not to find support,
It's also not a guess on the rebound,
But rather to confirm one thing:
Is this trading behavior or emotional release?

From the market feedback,
Liquidity has instantly contracted,
There are gaps in the buy and sell orders,
It belongs to the typical 'system moves first, people react later.'

This kind of market,
Whoever moves first exposes themselves first.

I flipped through my records,

⸻

I really can't hold it anymore.
What does the U.S. government have left besides disgusting people?

If the budget can't be agreed upon, then shut down.
Politicians are fighting each other.
In the end, who pays the bill?

It's not them.
It's the market, it's retail investors, it's the risk assets of the whole world.

Can you believe it?
It's 2026,
the world's largest economy,
Still using 'government shutdown' as a political bargaining chip from the last century.

And what about the market?
When the program goes off,
when risk control is cut,
Leverage is directly cleared to ashes.

there are no black swans,
without a fundamental collapse,
they don't even bother to fabricate 'bad news logic',

Many people have asked me this question in the past two days: Has ETH finished falling?
After looking at this picture, I am even more hesitant to take action — because the real factors that determine the direction have not yet appeared.

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1. Price + MA (the most critical layer)

1️⃣ Current price
• ETH ≈ 2691.43
• Daily -1.31%
• Clearly a weak rebound/consolidation after a decline

————————
👉 First, let me give you the conclusion in one sentence:
It's not a panic crash, but rather a 'weak zone with ineffective rebounds.'

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2️⃣ MA moving average structure (the chart shows MA7 / MA25 / MA99)

In the past few days, I have seen the attacks on CZ and Binance on X.
To be honest, it feels quite complicated inside.

The 1011 incident was indeed tragic,
Countless people have been liquidated, market makers are hurt, and market confidence has been severely impacted.
Anger and doubt, I can understand both.

But putting an industry-level leverage stampede,
Simplified to a sentence 'CZ is a scammer',
I think it is neither fair nor rational.

If you've experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets, you'll know:
👉 Liquidation has never been a button pressed by one person
👉 In a bear market, the market will always find an outlet to vent emotions

Does Binance have problems?

To be honest, when I first saw V God’s tweet, my first reaction was not 'good news', but rather a bit complicated.

It’s not because he mentioned 16384 ETH, but because the purpose for which he wants to use this money is almost completely out of sync with what the market is currently most concerned about.

What is the market waiting for?
Higher TPS, lower Gas, stronger narrative, more funding, more like 'enterprise-level infrastructure'.

So what is V God talking about?
Privacy, open source, verifiable, decentralized, full-stack hardware and software, autonomy, long-termism.

Honestly, such words are not appealing in a bull market and seem 'slow' in a volatile market.

Just saw a post comparing the 2023 Binance SAFU adjustment with the current actions.
Then come to a conclusion:
'We all know what will happen next.'
To be honest, my first reaction is not excitement, but vigilance.
In 2023, where was the market?
Panic, stampede, no one dares to take over, everyone is asking, 'Will it go to zero?'
And now?
Everyone is more asking, 'Is it about to take off?'

Similarly, it's a SAFU adjustment.
But the position of the market is different, the sentiment is different, and the meaning is completely different.

Yesterday, a friend in Hong Kong told me he wanted to invest 100,000 to stock up on silver.
He usually does not trade stocks, does not touch cryptocurrencies, and hardly pays attention to the financial market.
I replied to him at that time:
'When you notice that gold and silver are skyrocketing, it may have already risen quite a bit.'

As a result, the precious metals quickly showed a significant decline.

This does not mean that silver and gold 'cannot rise',
But it is a very typical market phenomenon:
When the market spreads to outsiders, prices often reflect most expectations.

Funds usually enter the market in three steps:
The first step is for professional funds to layout in advance;

In the past 24 hours, the market has taught everyone a lesson.
During a major crash, 283,646 people worldwide were liquidated, and 1.78 billion dollars evaporated directly.
When I saw this number, my first reaction was not 'exciting', but rather—thankful that I am still in the market.

The largest single order occurred in the BTC contract on HTX, worth 80,579,900 dollars, and it disappeared in an instant.
This is no longer a matter of 'right or wrong'; it is the result of leverage and emotions going out of control.

To be honest, in this market situation,
As long as you are alive and not taken away, you have already won over more than half of the people.

The feeling I've had while watching the market these past two days is very fragmented.
On one side, gold and silver are soaring to the point of questioning life—
In the last 24 hours, the market value added by gold is almost equal to the total volume of one Bitcoin.
On the other side, there is the silence and hesitation of mainstream crypto assets, even a bit of powerlessness.

Are you saying the market has no hotspots?
Yes.
Meme is crashing and surging: XVS dropped 30% in one hour, coins on BSC and Solana are doubling one moment and hitting zero the next;
There are narratives too: $HYPE, Perp DEX, AI, ERC-8004, the logic is more 'futuristic' than the last.

But the question is—