公子乾坤独绝

Binance's new feature update! The chatroom friend feature is now online!

1. Search for 'Chatroom' to enter the page;

2. Click the 'plus' icon in the upper right corner and select 'Add Friend';

3. Enter ID【1090156908】 or scan the code to add.

Follow and join my chatroom, daily red envelopes 🧧 to your face, exclusive trading tips updated in real-time, and chat with the big players about the market trends and seize opportunities! #币安春节大作战

The wealth windfall has begun, come witness the crypto legend with me!

12.17 Gold (XAU) Morning Outlook

Gold (XAU) is currently in a composite structure of a medium-term double top correction under a long-term bullish trend, and short-term box oscillation.

Prices surged and then fell back before rebounding, with a second test of the previous high not breaking through, forming a double top M shape. The neckline is in the range of 4280-4300, and this pattern signals a short-term peak correction.

The 1-hour double top correction corresponds to the 30-minute box oscillation, with the upper edge of the small box in the range of 4330-4350, which is exactly the pressure range of the 1-hour double top shape. The lower edge of the box coincides with the neckline of the double top.

The 30-minute ascending flag shape is a continuation pattern of the primary upward wave on the 1-hour scale. After this pattern completes, it will push the 1-hour price for a second surge. If the surge fails, it will trigger this double top correction.

Trading Suggestions: Short on the 4330-4325 line, target 4305, 4285.

12.17 Silver (XAG) Midday View

Silver (XAG) has formed a platform consolidation pattern in the 64-65 range, and after gaining momentum, it has broken through the upper edge with a strong bullish candle, accelerating the trend and reaching new highs, continuing the bullish momentum.

The 30-minute cycle corresponds to a 1-hour platform consolidation, creating a rectangular consolidation pattern in the 63-64 range. Price fluctuations promote chip concentration, completing short-term momentum buildup.

After the 1-hour breakout, the 30-minute concurrently broke through the upper edge of the rectangle, forming a breakout resonance, with short-term bullish momentum fully released; subsequently, both cycles concurrently surged and then retreated, entering the pullback confirmation phase after the breakout.

The high point of the 60-minute phase is a strong resistance level shared by both cycles.

The cost-performance ratio of the main short position is still relatively high, with targets at 65.1, 64.3, 63.8.

When logic and emotion resonate, and doubt coexists with fear, opportunities grow in the gaps.

Yesterday's midday silver (XAG) positioning can be considered complete.

Doubt and fear cause most people to hesitate and observe. It is precisely in this hesitant gap that the value of the gentleman as a guiding light in the market is highlighted, allowing for perfect realization.

Gold is rising, and the dollar is falling. Tonight's employment data is favorable for the interest rate market, but due to the yen's interest rate hike and the inflation figures not being released, the market is hesitant to be overly optimistic, leading to suppressed bullish sentiment.

The script of rising first and then falling is consistent with the evening's perspective, which can actually be regarded as a classic trend for non-farm data.

Overall, the layout is quite perfect. Before the interest rate hike in Japan is finalized, gold and silver may experience a volatile market. Once the market confirms that liquidity has hit the bottom, gold and silver will accelerate upward again.

If liquidity triggers a crisis in between, precious metals may temporarily exhibit a deep V-shape, but the endpoint will not change.

Gold (XAU) released the bearish sentiment for this week early this morning.

There is no suspense about Japan's interest rate hike.

The non-farm data actually doesn't have much impact; a month's data is insufficient to reverse the poor employment situation in the U.S. At most, it can alleviate emotions a bit, and moreover, the data may not necessarily be good.

CPI actually has a significant impact because after the interest rate cut, it’s uncertain whether inflation will rebound. However, by the end of November, when the U.S. government shutdown is at its peak, it seems to affect consumption. The CPI is expected not to be too high.

Therefore, we still need to continue observing in Q1 next year; there will not be an interest rate cut in January, and March is uncertain.

12.16 Silver (XAG) Midday Outlook

Silver (XAG) has experienced a dramatic decline after reaching an all-time high, with moving averages forming a bearish arrangement downward, officially ending the medium-term upward trend and entering a correction cycle.

Currently, the silver price is maintaining a weak oscillation around 62.722, and during the rebound process, it has consistently failed to reach the moving average resistance level, with the 1-hour level dominated by bears.

In the 30-minute cycle, the price has only retraced to 63.231 after dropping from the high point before falling again, with the rebound strength being weak, and it has already broken below the previous consolidation platform. During the decline phase, selling pressure has increased, while during the rebound phase, trading volume has shrunk, indicating a weak tendency in smaller timeframes.

Overall, if silver cannot strongly recover the 63.2 level in the short term, the current bearish trend will continue.

Trading suggestion: Short in the range of 62.9-63.2, with targets at 61.9, 61.4, and 60.9.

12.16 Gold (XAU) Afternoon View

Gold (XAU) started a strong upward trend from a low of 4190 on December 11, reaching a peak of 4353 on the 13th. The moving average system during this phase is in a bullish arrangement, forming a clear short-term upward trend.

After peaking, the price quickly fell back, with the M20/60 moving averages turning down, marking the official end of the original short-term upward trend, and the market entering a correction period. At the same time, the secondary indicators showed significant divergence, and the indicators continued to run downward, reflecting that bearish momentum is still being released.

From the perspective of cyclical linkage, the 1-hour cycle confirmed the mid-term logic of 'rally-top divergence-trend reversal'; the 30-minute cycle disassembled the correction process into the rhythm of 'sharp decline-small rebound-further decline', and currently, there has not been a clear stabilization signal, and the short-term bearish market pattern has not changed.

Operation suggestion: Short at the 4300-4305 line, with targets at 4273 and 4265.

Pay close attention to the 4265 level; if support holds, a technical rebound at the 1-hour level may occur. If it breaks down, the correction range will expand to the 4236-4200 interval.

Silver (XAG) has chosen the most cost-effective direction, and the US market has successfully brought it down with gold.

In fact, it can be seen that the willingness for silver to decline is not that strong, and it has been influenced by the overall market sentiment.

Don't rush to chase the high; when the news comes, there will always be a surge, but after the surge, it will drop, so wait to buy at a low when it falls, don't rush to buy high!

History has proven that chasing high will lead to losses, haha!

Gold (XAU) has plunged again in the US market! The expectation of a drop from 4350 to 4300 during the afternoon has been met, living up to everyone's expectations!

After a day of rising in the morning, the European session saw a sideways movement, occasionally throwing in false breakouts. Everyone was looking forward to the opening of the US and European markets, but it directly dropped, and with a 4-hour golden cross, it was all just false signals to lure people in!

I’m not stubbornly bearish; I am just following the main force to trade. At this stage, I am firmly bearish, and no one can influence me.

Once we reach the bottom of this phase, I will likewise be firmly bullish; otherwise, I won't be able to hold onto my positions, swinging back and forth, only to be repeatedly slaughtered by the main force.

U.S. job vacancies exceeded expectations, and the U.S. dollar index rose.

Silver surged over 4%, breaking the $60 mark for the first time, with an increase of over 100% this year.

Gold also rose in tandem, but its gains were limited by the strengthening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. stocks traded cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision, with market focus on the dot plot and Powell's speech, a key focus being whether he hints at pausing interest rate cuts.

In my opinion, the suspense over a 25 basis point rate cut is not significant; Powell's speech after a rate cut will be key in determining the subsequent trend.

Will he hint that "this will be the last cut" or will he leave the market with some hope? Every word he uses will be magnified and interpreted by the market.

After the 25 basis point cut in October, Powell warned to be wary of an inflation rebound; the current inflation rate remains persistently above the Fed's 2% target, and factors like the divergence in labor market data and disruptions in economic data releases have further complicated the Fed's policy assessment. In the short term, market trends will closely follow news fluctuations.

Overall bullish outlook for gold and silver in the medium to long term: the initiation of the rate cut cycle, a weakening dollar, and declining real interest rates are the core driving factors, combined with global geopolitical risks and continued central bank gold purchases. Silver will also benefit from the recovery of industrial demand, and short-term price fluctuations will not change the medium to long-term upward trend.

Silver (XAG): 60.2-60.5 buy, target 62, 63.75.

Gold (XAU): 4200-4205 buy, target 4230, 4264.

12.10 Gold (XAU) Early Morning Insights

Gold (XAU) overall shows a pullback confirmation pattern after breaking through resistance.

The 1-hour level has completed a trend resistance breakout, while the 30-minute level is in a range consolidation state, showing a pattern of being bullish in the long term and building strength in the short term.

The medium to long-term moving averages show an upward slope, with prices oscillating higher while relying on the moving averages. Currently, a pullback near the moving averages has found support, indicating a solid technical foundation for the bullish trend.

When the price broke through the trend line, trading volume increased accordingly. During the pullback phase, trading volume decreased, showing strong willingness from funds to support the price, effectively validating the breakout's effectiveness.

Trading suggestion: Go long at 4200-4205 range, target 4220, 4240.

12.10 Silver (XAG) Early Morning Perspective

Silver (XAG) has broken through the previous range's upper boundary on the 1-hour chart and continues to rise, supported by a medium to long-term upward trend line. The bullish trend structure is complete and is in a strengthening phase.

Short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, with prices consistently operating above the moving averages, and effective support is available during pullbacks.

Previous top divergence signals have been repaired as prices broke through, and the current bottom indicators are rising in sync without new divergence signs; bullish momentum continues to be released.

When prices break through the range, trading volume increases simultaneously, and the subsequent upward phase maintains active volume, indicating strong willingness to support funds. This performance effectively validates the validity of the upward trend.

Operation suggestion: Buy on a pullback to the 60-60.2 line, and if it breaks down past 59.8, reverse to short, avoiding the risk of a pullback after a rapid rise.

Latest news: 🇺🇸 According to Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow is 95%.

12.9 Gold (XAU) Evening Outlook

Gold (XAU) is currently in the central area of a recent fluctuating range, having not reached the upper resistance nor tested the key support, indicating a transitional phase where bullish and bearish forces are relatively balanced.

In terms of volume, recent trading volume has remained at a moderate level, with no extreme surges or drops, and the competition between bullish and bearish funds is mild, showing no signals of concentrated fund-driven movement.

The indicators in the sub-chart are in a neutral range, confirming the current transitional characteristics of the fluctuations. It is unlikely to see a trend-driven one-sided market in the short term; instead, one can rely on resistance and support for short-term high selling and low buying.

Operational suggestion: Sell at the line of 4210-4205, with targets at 4197 and 4186.

12.9 Silver (XAG) Evening Outlook

The secondary indicators for Silver (XAG) have shown signs of a top divergence, and short-term upward momentum has somewhat diminished. Caution is advised when chasing highs in the short term as the risk of a pullback has increased.

In terms of volume, recent trading volume has remained at a moderate level, without extreme spikes or drops, reflecting a relatively mild tug-of-war between bulls and bears. There is currently no concentrated capital pushing a one-sided trend, and the primary tone for the short term remains a consolidation phase.

A short-term strategy of selling high and buying low can be adopted, as silver is still in a rising trend consolidation phase in the medium term. Shorting is only suitable for short-term participation and requires quick entry and exit.

Operational suggestion: Short at the 58.8-59 level, with targets at 58.2 and 57.7.

The current price of gold (XAU) has reached the short entry area for the evening layout.

Current price 4207, short position, stop loss at 4213, targets at 4197 and 4186. #比特币VS代币化黄金

12.9 Silver (XAG) Morning Outlook

Currently, Silver (XAG) is at a mid-high position in its recent upward trend on the 4-hour chart, maintaining a gradual rise supported by moving averages, but has yet to break through the pressure zone formed by previous highs.

During the previous price surge on the 4-hour level, the bottom indicator did not reach a new high in sync, creating a 'top divergence' signal, indicating insufficient short-term upward momentum. This is also one of the core triggering factors for the subsequent price consolidation.

In the 1-hour level pullback process, no bottom divergence has occurred, indicating that the current consolidation has not triggered a clear reverse momentum, and is more of a digestion of the previous upward trend rather than a trend reversal.

Trading suggestion: Buy at 57.7-57.9, target 58.4, 58.8.

12.9 Gold (XAU) Morning Perspective

Gold (XAU) is in the upper part of the mid-term oscillation range on the 4-hour chart, showing an oscillating upward rhythm based on moving averages, but it has not broken out of this range overall.

The trading volume on the 4-hour chart has not shown extreme spikes, indicating a relatively balanced state of long and short positions; momentum indicators at the bottom are in a neutral zone, and no clear directional signals have been released yet.

The 1-hour chart currently shows a slight downward adjustment rhythm, while the 4-hour chart maintains an oscillating upward framework, creating a resonance state of larger cycle bullishness and smaller cycle consolidation.

During the pullback on the 1-hour chart, the moving averages on the 4-hour chart provide short-term support, and this pullback has not broken below the lower edge of the mid-term oscillation range, which means the current mid-term operational pattern has not been disrupted.

Trading suggestion: Buy between 4190-4186, target 4220, 4240.