MSTR down -24% in this week and broke a support level it held for 830 days.
The $100 level that held through every correction since the Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024 just broke
MSTR is trading at $85 after hours and now down -84% from its peak.
Let’s compare Bitcoin chart alongside it.
Bitcoin is down -54% from its $126k peak. Currently trading below 5% of the weekly MA 200. The same moving average that has marked the bottom of every major Bitcoin bear market in history.
Here is the scenario nobody wants to say out loud.
MSTR and Bitcoin have moved together since the ETF launched on January 11 2024. MSTR jumped 1,129% and Bitcoin jumped 225% to ATH.
If MSTR retests $40 the Bitcoin chart suggests a parallel retest of the post ETF launch support near $42,000. The same level Bitcoin was trading when the ETF changed everything in January 2024.
$100 on MSTR and $62,500 on Bitcoin are now the most important levels in the entire crypto.
If they do not reclaim these levels fast the next stop is a long way down.
Since the October 10th crash, the biggest liquidation event in crypto history which wiped out $19 billion in 24 hours, Bitcoin has not been the same.
After that, Bitcoin crashed -54% from $126K to $58K with no real bounce like we saw in 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
We saw a nonstop dump in Bitcoin and this cycle ended with no altseason at all.
The weird thing is, since the Oct 10th NASDAQ is up 28%, reaching a new ATH of 30,764, with many stocks hitting new all-time highs.
Historically Bitcoin correlates with the US stock market, but this time almost every pump gets sold off.
Bitcoin followed and recovered with stocks even during the 2025 tariff crash, but recently it has massively diverged since the October 2025 crash, and we continue to see hundreds of millions in liquidations every other day.
I think the 4-year cycle is still intact and the crash to the bottom feels aggressive due to leverage manipulation and algo trading by big firms like Jane, which makes money from arbitrage volatility rather than price going up.
Do you think there is manipulation involved or market is following 4 year cycle ?
🇮🇷 After Trump posted that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" the IRGC shot a Singapore-flagged cargo ship on it.
The Ever Lovely. The bridge damaged, but no casualties.
Iran just put a hole in a commercial vessel days into a deal that was supposed to guarantee safe passage, while Trump is publicly declaring everything was fine, and US officials are now describing it as an "early test of the deal's durability."
🇺🇸🇷🇺🇮🇷🇺🇦🛢️ Trump’s Iran peace deal is costing Putin $110M a day.
The US-Iran agreement has sent oil prices crashing back to pre-conflict levels. Brent crude is now at $72.52 a barrel (down >16% since mid-June) as tankers resume sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Peace talks in Switzerland are easing supply fears and hammering Russia’s oil revenues. Add to that the relentless barrage of attacks by Ukraine on critical energy infrastructure, and Russia is in a tough economic spot.
🇺🇸🇮🇱 A new book lays out just how BRUTALLY Trump strong armed Netanyahu into the Iran deal...
Per "Regime Change" by NYT reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, Trump told the Israeli leader he was sick of his antics, reminded him he had done everything to protect him, and insisted he could not back out:
"I’ve done everything to protect you. You better fucking go along with this.
It’s been going on for too fucking long.
Everybody’s sick of you, Bibi. All the Jews are sick of you. Even the two Jews on this call are sick of you. You can’t
back out of this. I’m the best friend Israel ever had. Everybody hates you, and I’ve stood by you.
I’m telling you, this is a great deal for Israel."
The "you'll be on your own" warnings were the polite, public version.
This is reportedly what it sounded like behind the door.
Trump didn't persuade Netanyahu into the deal, he steamrolled him, invoking everything he'd spent protecting him as the debt that was now coming due.
It settles the question that ran the whole war. For 118 days the mystery was whether Trump controlled Netanyahu or the reverse.
A president screaming "you can't back out of this" down the phone is not a man being led.
Source: John_Hudson Source Book: REGIME CHANGE BY maggieNYT jonathanvswan Writer: Daniel