老郑睡不醒

On December 26, options with a nominal value of approximately $23.8 billion will be concentrated, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that BTC derivatives will face a 'concentrated pricing and repricing of risk exposure' at the end of the year, where prices may have been previously constrained by structure, but the uncertainty afterward may increase.

From the data, the two positions closest to the current BTC spot price have a large amount of OI focused on them, namely: 1. $85,000 put options: 14,674 BTC; this is clearly a bearish concentration area, considering the current corresponding BTC price is around 90,000, this is a protective put option that has moved from OTM to ITM. 2. $100,000 call options: 18,116 BTC; this is the largest single point OI in the entire structure, and the motivation behind this structure is the belief that BTC will have difficulty exceeding 100,000 before December 26; or if it rises, they are willing to deliver at 100,000. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely from ETF hedging, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, etc., institutions that hold BTC spot for the long term. It includes both buyers and sellers, but from the strike price position, forced structure, and the relationship with the bullish combination at the 100,000 strike price, the put options at the 85,000 strike price act as the 'active party', reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at that price level. Similarly, the 100,000 strike price influences a large amount of bullish OI, which, in essence, does not mean 'the market is bullish up to here', but rather that long-term capital is willing to give up upward space above that price level, thereby seeking a certain panic and overall risk control. By buying puts below and selling calls above, the distribution of BTC returns is compressed within an affordable range. Given the highly formed premise, this 85,000-100,000 option corridor has a structural impact on BTC prices of 'upward pressure, downward buffer, and middle range fluctuations' before December 26.

The heartbreaking numbers are certainly impossible to quantify, but we can roughly review: if we interpret the circulating supply by date range, each date range refers to the UTXO date. Now we see that the total number of BTC 'born' between 2010 and 2014 appeared in December 2014, and thereafter quickly rebounded (was consumed); until after January 2019, there has been almost no significant change.

(Figure 1) These ancient BTC that remain to this day, aside from those held by absolute believers, have likely mostly been lost. This ratio is at least over 50%, meaning at least over 1,060,000 coins.

In the previous tweet, we mentioned that MSTR and ETF are the core forces providing new demand for BTC in this cycle, and they are also important support for the sustained price increase (see citation). Although on December 9, MSTR announced the purchase of 10,624 BTC again, the frequency and scale have clearly intensified compared to the activity level from the third quarter of 2024 to early 2025. Meanwhile, the recent performance on the ETF side has been even weaker. This fully demonstrates that, under the current macro background, traditional capital's attitude towards BTC is becoming increasingly worried and panic-stricken, leading to an overall decline in risk appetite. In addition, there is another equally important but easily overlooked reason—basis convergence.