Eric SJ

Attention all traders:

From now on, before making any trades, especially in the morning, I will post an intraday trend analysis for the assets we're targeting, usually BTC, ETH, and SOL.

The trading direction and analysis for the day will primarily follow this note, and the trend must remain consistent unless I explicitly indicate a direction change.

If there's a violation, I'll be sending out red envelopes for each infraction!

$BTC intraday trend outlook revision

This situation doesn't seem right. In every cycle below the one-hour timeframe, it looks like it's about to move up.

The short positions that followed 62600-62700 earlier can be run first; take a bit of the spread/fee, and stabilize with a position first.

And I even feel like we can add more entries.

This controversy around OUSD has exposed a major issue: the credit boundary was breached before the product was even officially launched.

Credit can’t be built up by a list of names—especially when that list contains “water.”

What people care about now isn’t how widely its future distribution channels might expand, but how much “water” is still in that list.

This morning I saw Upbit @Official_Upbit also take a stance: it will not participate in the issuance of OUSD.

This is basically the Korean market-level equivalent of hitting the pause button on OUSD.

But actually, OUSD’s direction isn’t the problem. It even targets the core pain points of the stablecoin business model.

In the past, many stablecoins were like:

“I issue, you use, and I take the reserve yield.”

What OUSD is trying to say is:

“Let’s distribute together, govern together, and share the yields together.”

In its Open Standard narrative, OUSD emphasizes several things: zero minting/redemption fees, no size limits, reserve yield allocated to participating enterprises, open governance, and enterprise-focused payments and settlement.

That’s not exactly without appeal.

But the problem is here too #OUSD

The most important thing this “alliance-style” stablecoin model needs to prove isn’t “I know a lot of big companies,” but rather “what exactly have these companies actually committed to?”

In this controversy, multiple Korean companies stated they had not officially agreed to join—only that they were in contact or evaluation stages.

That’s when the credit boundary was effectively broken.

Whether they will participate in the future is one matter, but the pre-announced list clearly contains “water.”

That is a credit issue.

In this alliance model, the “partnership” can’t be vague.

Whether they have formally signed, whether they participate in governance, and whether they participate in distribution after issuance are completely different identities.

If everyone is lumped into a single “alliance list” and presented that way, it may get attention in the short term, but will backfire in the long run.

Because stablecoins aren’t narrative assets—they’re credit assets.

And credit itself is also part of the moat.

When regular projects brag about partnerships, at most it affects TVL and the coin price.

When stablecoins brag about partnerships, it affects users’ judgments about reserves, redemptions, compliance, clearing, and systemic risk.

These are two different dimensions.

I think the real value of this event isn’t deciding whether OUSD is “dead.”

Instead, it has exposed in advance several key issues that an “alliance-style” stablecoin must clearly define and resolve:

Who truly signed?
Who participates in governance?
Who bears the primary responsibility?
Who truly participates in the post-issuance distribution?

Without those answers, no matter how long the list is, it’s still just a list.

$BTC day intraday trend analysis and trading viewpoints

The big pie’s hourly K line is in an uptrend, but the weekend liquidity is thin, and betting on the trend to continue has a very weak risk-reward ratio.

But that’s secondary. Based on the indicators we looked at, it has formed a divergence pattern with the MACD over the past day.

And we can see the shape indicating that a dead cross is about to form.

So subjectively, I think today may likely see a pullback.

As for the closest entry point, I would choose to place sell orders around 62600-62700.

But overall, it’s mainly not for going long today; shorts are the focus.

Last night’s [bStocks] themed live stream at Binance Square drew over 10,000 viewers. It’s the highest attendance for the Newcomer Learning program in the past year.

My view on using U to buy stocks/stock coins is this:

In the short term, it’s about rerouting flows.

In the medium term, it’s about filtering.

In the long term, it’s about restructuring.

During the stream, it was clearly noticeable that many people in the current market environment are eager to try buying with U and using stock coins.

But even more obvious was everyone’s conflicting mindset about it.

One side believes this is a major breakthrough for the industry.

The other side says, “If everyone goes buy stocks, my $BTC won’t be able to get out of my position.”

Then the copycats are completely done for.

I believe that the fact that you can use U to buy stocks/stock coins really does, in the short term, reroute capital away from some existing low-quality copycat projects. Because the process skips many of the intermediate steps of converting funds, it reduces friction for users.

But in the long run, it turns out to be a good thing. As the listing effect gradually weakens, and assuming existing projects don’t change,

Will the “crypto natives” continue to accept project valuations that have no income, no profits, and no cash flow—only narrative?

That’s just too much.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that all copycats will have no value.

On the contrary, genuinely valuable projects will be re-filtered out more easily through this process.

Because once capital has more choices, the market becomes more demanding.

The old logic:

“Getting listed is the peak.”

“Big fundraising means strong.”

“With a sexy enough narrative, you can justify the valuation.”

People are going to find it harder and harder to keep buying.

Once a clearer value anchor shows up next door, every project has to answer one question:

Why are you worth being priced like this more than a real company that actually makes money?

Many projects can’t answer that.

But projects that can answer it will end up even stronger.

So in the live stream, my exact words were:

In the short term, this is about rerouting.

In the medium term, it’s about filtering.

In the long term, it’s about restructuring.

Rerouting is capital leaving low-quality copycat projects; filtering is selecting projects that only have narratives and no business model; and restructuring is the formation of valuation anchors and shifts in investors’ capital mindset.

Didn’t expect such a big setup—this OUSD actually has a reversal

The 130 alliance members it claims may include some questionable figures, because some of the listed South Korean alliance members said they had not engaged in any formal negotiations and did not agree to join the alliance.

It’s a bit like some project teams asking KOLs whether they will attend a certain meeting or participate in a certain KOL round. But even though the KOL hasn’t agreed— or has already refused— they still end up appearing on the list.

This world is just a huge makeshift crew.

An official from Samsung Electronics said: “We haven’t conducted any formal consultations, and we don’t know what role we would play (in the alliance).”

Shinhan Financial Group, Dunamu, and K-Bank also revealed that OpenStandard had asked them about their willingness to participate in OUSD. At the time, they only said they would consider it, yet later their names were still included in the alliance members list.

$SOL is very likely to drop. In the 15-minute timeframe, it may be forming an M top.

The indicators are also all at high levels. Things are getting tense—time to run!

In the past six months, nearly a hundred projects have issued tokens.

But only 14 projects have seen a price increase of more than 10% from their opening price to the current price!!!

I collected this year’s TGE data from Rootdata, and compiled 93 projects.

Then I compared the prices of these 93 projects on CMC.

The results are:

The share of projects that are down more than 50% from the opening price to the current price is over 40%

The share of projects that are down more than 90% is over 10%

Sigh~

Benefits: $200 live stream red packet + $100 on-stage (get on mic) bonus

Just come, brothers

This Thursday, which is July 2nd evening, there will be a plaza live stream—let’s chat about bStocks

For brothers who don’t understand US stocks or on-chain tokens, make sure to lock in the live room～

预约入口

$SOL saw a massive surge beyond imagination

Previously, I've said several times that Solana has begun entering a recovery cycle, and in both the short and mid term, the main strategy can be to go long

For this wave as well, it has come to the 0.382 support level within the day

Damn

Big Pancake $BTC Intraday Order Book Analysis and Trading Suggestions

Now the Big Pancake order book is already in a mess, but it has strengthened and rebounded up strongly by closing the V. The trend has reversed. Today we mainly look for an uptrend.

So we’ll keep it simple: buy on pullbacks.

First level: 0.382, place a long order at 60050.
Second level: 0.618, place a long order at 59650.

Subjectively, I think the 60050 area should have initial effectiveness as a pullback target, since it hasn’t been tested in the short term yet. Also, a support structure was built there earlier.

No more to say. Today’s chart is overall quite clear, and the logic is straightforward.

Try tapping a bit more at position $BTC 59415

The support at 0.618 is being tested; if things go smoothly, the plan is to aim for the previous K-line high and then withdraw.

The position size can be smaller than usual—it's a bit too early/left-sided.

Try to have the delivery completed before sleep

U.S. stock earnings calendar delivery this week~

If I had to define this week, I’d call it: a low-liquidity showdown week before the earnings season lull

Strictly speaking, next week is when the next round of earnings season officially gets underway

This week, the large-cap tech stocks have basically run through their first earnings round. There aren’t many reports truly worth focusing on. The only one with real appeal is Nike $NKE

(So this week, I’ll only focus on my take on Nike’s earnings)

Nike has already nearly fallen for almost a year

After the peak in late August last year, the stock has been cut in half

As a “barometer of consumer conditions,” expectations in the market have already dropped significantly. Nike’s valuation has shifted from a “growth narrative” to a “survival/recovery narrative”

What the market is trading now isn’t whether Nike is “doing well,” but whether it “could get even worse”

With those expectations in place, any marginal improvement could trigger an upside expectation-gap rebound

So I think the value of trading the rebound before and after this $NKE earnings report is relatively high, with a very good risk-reward ratio
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Also, after the Non-Farm Payrolls release this week, the U.S. will slip into the rhythm of the Independence Day holiday

In the U.S. Eastern time zone, the stock market will have a half-day on Thursday, and will be closed on Friday for Independence Day. Typically, liquidity within such weeks is lower, and institutions generally reduce positions early

$BTC at this position go long, the risk-reward ratio is good, and it is at the trendline support level

The target is simply to place it at the short-term previous high. I think it is still foreseeable—i.e., above 60300

The 5-minute cycle indicators have given a "turn signal"

This $BTC long position ultimately saw drawdown eat away 1,000 points; let’s do a review and extend it—what to do next.

Not long after I posted the last one, I added my views in the comments: I chose to place orders along the lower edge of the channel I drew. Luck was on my side—I got filled.

After that, I tracked it all the way. On this move in the smaller timeframe, there wasn’t much pullback. It kept going up, and the drawdown followed the trade all the way.

Compared to before, I wouldn’t have pushed it like this. Why did I push so aggressively this time? Because subjectively, I don’t think the resistance level will be broken through in one go. So I locked in profits with a tighter margin.

So then what will I do next?

I’m going to place an order at 59160. The logic is: I still believe it will go up, but it needs the market to rotate and rebalance its order flow.

There might be a quick dip first. This 59160 level happens to be the lower edge of the new trend line. Placing an order here has the best risk-reward ratio.

If anything changes, I’ll update later. Actually, 59500 is support, but the risk-reward ratio isn’t great—at least I won’t catch it there since I’m holding for a shorter time cycle. If your cycles are longer, you can place orders at 59500.

Is the AI bull market entering its second phase?

Regulators begin to flag risks

In the BIS’s latest annual report, the Bank for International Settlements points out that

The AI investment boom is nearing past rounds of major capital expenditure cycles (Fig. 2). BIS says that if future earnings fail to meet expectations, there could be prolonged adjustments to investments

The exact wording is:

“Disappointing returns can trigger a sudden drop in financing and turn a boom in capital spending into a long-lasting investment slump.”

And this is very likely to set off ripple effects across financial markets

It cites several historical periods of investment booms as comparisons (Fig. 3), including the canal expansions of the 1830s, the railway boom in 1840s Britain, and the late-1990s internet bubble

It believes that “true technological breakthroughs attract more capital than commercial returns ultimately justify.”

My understanding is: this doesn’t mean the AI bubble—or the hype—must end. It’s simply a risk warning

This is actually very similar to today’s market situation

From the AI concept-stock earnings reports released earlier, it’s clear that what the market is evaluating is no longer only how strong the model is or how big your imagination for the future is

Instead, the market has started to verify whether “what you said in the past is actually supported by evidence”

$BTC Intra-day Trend Analysis and Trading Suggestions

As for the current market structure of Bitcoin, it’s really hard to trade. From the lines we draw, we can only temporarily interpret the situation as follows:

1. We are still within a downward trend line, and it has not yet touched the overhead resistance line, while the downward momentum is showing an increasing trend.

2. The good news is that there are currently signals indicating a temporary consolidation of the downtrend.

However, it’s still very difficult to judge the direction. Since the indicators are generally at low levels, I can only make an initial judgment that it may move upward next.

The goal is a slow breakout of the downward trend line. At the current price level, the risk-reward ratio for entering long or short is not great, so it might be better to wait.

I’ll follow up later.