刀枪Blue

$M The review of m at that time was indeed not understood or only partially understood. I used to understand it but then could not understand it again. The knowledge about price behavior is too vast and has too many details. Some things are forgotten if not used for a long time, and then I had to go back and learn it all over again. In any case, I should not make mistakes in this kind of market in the future.

Back to the market, after 30 consecutive bearish K-lines on the daily chart, the largest bearish K-line appeared. This type of K-line is called a surprise K-line or a gift K-line for bears. The bears and institutions in the market will take profits using this K-line. The bulls also know that the bears will take profits, so they anticipate a two-phase 10k increase. The first target for the bulls is the shadow gap, and the second target is the closing price of the large bearish K-line. This large bearish K-line is not only a gift K-line but also represents a selling climax in the trend and a exhaustion gap, so the market will sell at the peak's rise and fall point. The K-line is the operating code of the market; each K-line does not appear out of thin air. Each K-line, even when switched to 5 minutes, is the result of institutional game play.
Finally, looking at the strategy, I should have called for a long position at the double bottom. The background of this double bottom supports a higher probability of reversal, but I indeed did not see it and missed it.
I also directly looked at several cases of gift K-lines; they basically all showed a significant rise or fall after 30 K-lines, testing the closing or opening of the large K-line. These things are all the codes for market operation, absolutely rational.

Cultivating a rigorous trading habit for myself, if you want to do everything, you won't achieve anything. When doing wedge patterns, I said I wanted to make 10,000 wedge trades. By the time I reached the 10th trade, my insights deepened. In trading, 90% of the time is spent waiting; frequent trading inevitably leads to being killed by mathematics. I understand very well what trades I should not make, so sometimes it's normal for me to post trades without executing them.
If you don't understand that trading is a game against the smartest people in the world, you'll make all kinds of trades and still incur significant losses.
The average win-loss ratio for wedges is currently 2, with a mathematical expectation close to 0.2. Winning 4 out of 10 trades is already a good model; a win-loss ratio of 2 with a 40% probability already supports stable profits mathematically. I've achieved 4 profitable trades; there is a natural upper limit to the win rate for reversal trades, and combining it with a good trend background can improve the win rate a bit. Theoretically, high win rates and high win-loss ratios do not exist because your opponents are more astute than you regarding closing prices and are more meticulous about small mathematical advantages, possessing more data. Therefore, I have been continuously verifying the 70% breakout probability of wedge charts. A breakout does not guarantee reaching the target; perhaps a win-loss ratio of 70% with 1:1 is feasible, but trades with a win-loss ratio of several times at a 70% win rate basically don't exist; such trades are a dream.
I'm also learning and validating data while doing many things. The clear direction for stable profitability has always been to establish a positive expectation system. I believe that wedges are indeed a positive expectation system, but continuous verification is still needed. Winning 8 out of 20 trades with a win-loss ratio of 2 is a model for sustainable profitability.

$BTC The structure is still somewhat wedge-shaped, and the price is obstructed by the lower edge of the previous expansion triangle's top. There are relatively acceptable short-selling signals, but the closing K-line for entry is a bullish line, indicating that the bearish momentum does not have continuity, making it difficult to control the market probability accordingly.

$M I haven't paid attention to this transaction because I didn't make it. If I had, I would have set a stop loss just above the double bottom or above the bullish signal K. Some fans made a few profits at that time and asked me how to view this and that. To be honest, I don't understand all the market trends. I thought that since everyone was anxious waiting for trades, I would send out a few trades based on my gut feeling, and 'm' is one of them 🤣. I haven't really calculated the mathematical advantage because most people actually don't care about long-term mathematical advantages, but are more concerned about whether they can make 20% or 30% in the short term, or even double their money in a single trade. If they can't control their greed, they naturally lose money. As for the future, I'm also not sure how this position will develop; there are reasons for any move. If it breaks upwards, it's a successful reversal of the double bottom; if it falls, it encounters resistance. Without a clear direction, any movement can be reasonably explained.

Strategy Sharing Group

The 9th and 10th orders are public wedges, with a profit-loss ratio of two to one and a win rate above 50%. For the public wedge orders, I always use the Walmart trading method, which means to hold firmly. Bitcoin is held for 10-20 days below 80,000, while Ethereum is watched for new lows.

The success rate of shorting BTC in a trend continuation wedge (pattern 9) is much higher than that of counter-trend wedges at 40%, with target prices seeing 80,000 and below. The risk-reward ratio for shorting is 2, with a stop-loss set at the recent daily high rebound. ETH is also at a wedge top, with the success rate for going long dropping to 30%. For shorting, profits can be taken at new lows with a risk-reward ratio of 2. The success rate should be above 50%, and at a 1:1 risk-reward position, the success rate is 75%. Mathematically, this is completely reasonable. Recently, the success rate for trend continuation wedges has been significantly higher than that for counter-trend wedges, with trend continuation probabilities exceeding 60% and counter-trend only at 40%. However, even so, as long as the risk-reward ratio is controlled above 2, it is mathematically reasonable, but reasonable does not mean the best. Although I have lost money recently, I remain relatively calm because I know I can earn it back, and I have good order management. I will not let one or a few losses throw off my mindset. If a few trades can upset your mindset, it indicates that you have not yet paid enough tuition to the market. Trading focuses on long-term results, not gambling.

The stop loss is raised to 0.1466, the probability of loss has increased, and I believe this is a low point that cannot be broken. If it breaks, the market may not be in a bullish trend, but rather in a sideways or bearish trend.

If you want to get rid of losses, you must pass the first emotional barrier. Most people can't get past the first emotional barrier related to floating losses and may need comfort... If you are like this, then you need to start changing from position management, requiring extreme discipline in trading until it becomes instinctual, and you must continually learn and practice in order to gradually escape the stable loss curve.

If from now on, each trade maintains at least a 0.2 mathematical expectation, after hundreds or thousands of trades, you will at least have a relatively stable curve, allowing you to survive in a market surrounded by strong competitors. You must assume that your opponent in each trade is an institution, and in fact, there is about a 90% probability that your opponent is a long-term stable profit-making institution. Every one of its trades has a mathematical advantage, and you must learn from them to ensure that every trade has a mathematical advantage to avoid losing money for at least a year or make a small profit. These institutions provide 85%-90% of the market liquidity, and they are not human; they are AI, computational programs. After 2010, liquidity has been mainly provided by programs that have no emotions and possess a casino advantage with a win rate of 51%-52%. Their mathematical expectation is only 0.04. Almost half of their trades are losing, but after millions of trades, the tiny mathematical advantage will be infinitely magnified, turning profits into towering gains.

When you can achieve a mathematical expectation system of 0.4-0.5, you are a top trader, not just a top trader on Binance Square but a top trader in the world—an absolute pinnacle of trading. This type of system does not have fixed answers and is quite flexible; if there is, it is that you can read every candlestick in the market.

Do not judge a hero by one success or failure; please maintain a consistently calm heart throughout your long trading career!

$EVAA The extreme winning rate of major reversals is basically around 40%. The probability of the wedge chart breaking through the upper wedge line is 75%-70%. Is the mathematical expectation of our trade reasonable? The expected profit-loss ratio is close to 3, and the actual winning rate should be between 30%-40%. The expectation is still positive. After reviewing the expectation, we see that there are currently two consecutive daily candlesticks closing with a large bearish candle at the lowest point. From a trend perspective, the price has not broken through the key high, and the bears in the market have not all taken profit, maintaining a bearish trend. The stop-loss probability for this trade has increased.
This type of game of major reversals in wedges will strictly control the profit-loss ratio above 2 in the future, treating it as a double bottom or double top, with an approximately twofold profit-loss ratio mathematical expectation of 0.x.
Additionally, it is important to optimize one's position management, with a fixed 3% stop-loss for each trade rather than a fixed position size. To achieve stable profits in the market comes with extremely strict requirements, which is harder than you might imagine. Without extreme professionalism, it is impossible to achieve stable profits. Half of the quantitative trading institutions in the market are losing money, making stable profit traders extremely scarce. There are basically no traders on Binance Square with a stable curve for a year of manual trading. If there were, the big players would have already opened real accounts. Even if they opened real accounts, none have achieved stability for a year. I haven't achieved stable profits either. I no longer blindly trust anyone; I only believe in mathematical expectation, practicing until I can achieve stable profits. The market can allow the ignorant to make a lot of money, but this is not a reward; it is the beginning of a nightmare. Only through extensive learning and practice can one outperform half of the losing institutions. In my current understanding, being able to read each candlestick has become a prerequisite for stable profits. I have not yet achieved the ability to read each candlestick but aim to reach this level by the end of next year.
If you have recently lost money on my trades, I sincerely apologize; I am also losing money! Regarding winning rates, I have always been skeptical of high probability and high profit-loss. The market rarely becomes unbalanced. I can only strive to ensure that each of my trades is advantageous in terms of mathematical expectation. Starting next year, I will compile an encyclopedia of wedge trading, statistically documenting the winning rates, profit-loss ratios, mathematical expectations, and personal understandings of each losing and profitable trade to share in the community.

Just hold it, Walmart trading method, once you enter you don't need to watch the market anymore, either stop loss or take profit

$EVAA Wedge 8th order long expected profit and loss ratio 2.93, hold for about 10 days, go long at the current price, mathematical expectation is positive, win rate 70%, stop loss at the lowest point of this wave down, take profit at 1.653. Completed wedge trades 6 orders 4 wins 2 losses

$ALLO Wedge Shape 7th Order, Daily level three times downward breakout failure, the market begins to reverse search for fair price, good daily long signal k entry, initial stop loss moves up after retracing to the new high of the lowest point of this decline, expected to hold for 8-10 days with a two-stage rise, profit-loss ratio of at least 1 times or more, win rate 70%, initial stop loss range is large, control reasonable position size, mathematical expectation is positive, major reversal may far exceed 1 times profit-loss ratio

$M Stop loss at 1.454, can also continue to rely on protective stop loss 2, different stop loss positions have different final win rates, and the profit-loss ratios are also different.